How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:

You're not mad conspiracy theorist, you just don't know anything about music production.

And Shaman doesn't know anything about music

Steve

[Ales Dvorak]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And Shaman doesn't know anything about music

Steve

[Butschi]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think this has been Russia's hope since the start of the war for EVERYTHING that they do.  Whether it is air defenses, armored vehicles, artillery, shells, or manpower the intent is to wear out an ability.

Since Russia clearly doesn't have a better idea of how to "win" this war, the strategy has remained the same since the start of this mess.

Steve

Quite possible. The question remains why Kyiv or Odessa instead of logistics nodes, or high value targets at/near the frontlines - like the Ukrainians do. Could be that their (cruise-) missiles are just not accurate enough but do a good job of binding Patriots etc. to civilian centers and thus enabling the RuAF.

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Quite possible. The question remains why Kyiv or Odessa instead of logistics nodes, or high value targets at/near the frontlines - like the Ukrainians do. Could be that their (cruise-) missiles are just not accurate enough but do a good job of binding Patriots etc. to civilian centers and thus enabling the RuAF.

We've pondered this several times and the answer repeatedly comes back to one of two things:

1.  Russians believe terror works.  Hitting a factory out in the middle of nowhere doesn't cause terror, but hitting something in a big city does.

2.  Their tech and ISR are embarrassingly bad.  The more specific their targets, the more obvious it is they can't hit what they aim for.  That's not a good message to put out there. 

Aiming for something outside of an urban area that they don't think they can hit means they fail to cause terror and they don't get a high value payoff.  So it seems it's better to just lob them into major urban areas and at least achieve terror when they miss whatever they were trying to hit.

And no matter what they do, Ukraine has to expend resources.  So if their interest is wearing out a Ukrainian capability, then anything that crosses over the border works to that end.

Steve

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

2.  Their tech and ISR are embarrassingly bad.  The more specific their targets, the more obvious it is they can't hit what they aim for.  That's not a good message to put out there. 

But certainly improved. Taking out Kharkivs city wide network was pretty efficiently done. The trend is shifting up for them and very unlikely to stop doing so. 

[FancyCat]

Russia's actions are intended for western consumption. The west is being shown that 1. Russia is inexhaustible, thru constant offensives, 2. Russia retains capabilities to inflict terror on all of Ukraine, 3. Russia's terror is emerging, ala war crimes and breakdown of prior standards.

This is designed to both demotivate western civilians and policymakers to abandon Ukraine.

AND ITS WORKING. The Speaker of the House should be fired. The cowardly Republican House deserves to lose in November on the mere basis that while the majority of Americans support Ukraine, majority of Republicans support Ukraine, majority of Senate Rs support Ukraine, they themselves support Ukraine, we have endured months and months of delays for no good reason.

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

This is designed to both demotivate western civilians and policymakers to abandon Ukraine.

AND ITS WORKING. The Speaker of the House should be fired. The cowardly Republican House deserves to lose in November on the mere basis that while the majority of Americans support Ukraine, majority of Republicans support Ukraine, majority of Senate Rs support Ukraine, they themselves support Ukraine, we have endured months and months of delays for no good reason.

Those 2 statements are somewhat contradictory.  The problem in congress is simply it is too easy to derail everything by 1 person and doing anything bilateral seems to be cause for punishment.  It isn't about Ukraine, unfortunately it is bigger than that.  Mad Marjorie needs to stay in the limelight and was gonna find a reason for a motion to vacate sooner or later,  The upside is the Dems have an opportunity to exact a price to save the GOP from itself and that price (at least partially) would seem to be support for Ukraine.

Firing the Speaker of the house is EXACTLY what mad Marjorie is trying to do and she doesn't support Ukraine.

[FancyCat]

I had a message and then I misclicked and gone.

It cannot be understated we are not doing enough to bring Russia to the negotiation table. Even if we view this without seeking a total victory by Ukraine, the West is failing to achieve the goal of ending the war in Ukraine even on Korean war 38th parallel standards.

If I'm Russia, am I really worried about French troops in Odessa and Kiyv when the continent refuses to purchase artillery shells worldwide for Ukraine? Am I really worried about that "arsenal of democracy" when months pass with those supply lines being cold? No if I'm Putin, I'm pushing. I'm firing missiles. I'm escalating.

Sure, money is funding Ukraine. Sure, some production continues. But still, we remain allergic to investing in Ukraine. We remain allergic to investing in ourselves. We pat ourselves on the back for a tank or two, or a Patriot battery or one F-16. Goddamn it we are fighting the heir of the Soviet Union, quantity is not equal to quality sure....but we certainly had more to fight the SU than now and what we are giving to Ukraine.

To achieve merely the stalemate now, we need more tanks, more IFVs, more shells, more air defense to Ukraine. Strip our defenses to supply Ukraine. Increase production. I call bull**** on these slow production times. More and now.

How is anyone worldwide supposed to have faith in the West vs China, the world's factory when we can't even defeat the remains of the Soviet Union?

Edited March 25 by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

I know others have vocalized that a longer war is going to wreck Russia soon enough, I just need to point out that China probably has enough Soviet era shells to fund Russian artillery fire for the next 5 years, if they supplied them. If. But you cannot argue that a longer protracted conflict decreases the likelihood of China supplying Russia.

[Beleg85]

Anoter airstrike, this time on Odessa. Unfortunatlly they likely hit something, judging by afterexplosions sounds.

 

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, hcrof said:

Haiduk, do you have information on how bad the recent strike on the power grid was? Apparently the whole of Kharkiv was without power, and some cities too? 

Is this worse than before?

I wrote two days ago - Kharkiv lost all substations and their thermal power plant was badly damaged. About 2/3 of the city remained without electricity and half without heating. Today city authorities reported they managed to launch subway and increaese number of houses, plugged to power grids. But heating season will be aborted prematurely (it's lucky on this week the temperature will rise gradually to +17) - this will allow to release energy resources to plug more houses. 

Limitations on elecrtricity consumptions have Kryvyi Rih and Odesa. Yeaterday in Odesa was halted all electricity transport. 

Some troubles there were in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Reportedly one opf two hydro power plants destroyed completely and it repairing (or new-building) will take several years

DTEK company reported on today they temporary lost 50 % of own power generation capabilities (DTEK is owner of mostly thermal power plants), But main generation in Ukriane is nuclear power plants, thermal plants mostly use for cities and oblasts power and heating supply

All other territory of Ukraine didn't encounter with lack of electricity. 

 

Edited March 25 by Haiduk

[hcrof]

relevant to the discussion about bunkers. These are probably a good tradeoff between cost and effectiveness - no wonder they are the ones getting shown off on camera!

You can always dig deeper or use stronger designs (like those bunkers on the beaches of Normandy, or the Maginot line), but at some point you hit diminishing returns. Note that I am not a military engineer so my opinion on where that point is means nothing!

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

I know others have vocalized that a longer war is going to wreck Russia soon enough, I just need to point out that China probably has enough Soviet era shells to fund Russian artillery fire for the next 5 years, if they supplied them. If. But you cannot argue that a longer protracted conflict decreases the likelihood of China supplying Russia.

Actually China has been kinda standoffish on this whole thing.  They talk “infinite friendship” but then back off on banking to avoid crossing the US too deeply. They are likely sending tech and even weapons but nowhere near levels they could.  And they are taking Russia to the cleaners on oil and gas…with friends like these….

I think China wants a protracted conflict because it puts Russia in a very poor bargaining position.  But at the same time they do not want Russia to collapse, or win really.  As to China pouring arms and ammo into Russia…well they haven’t yet.  Not sure if they see it really in their interest to bail Russia out.  They want a weak and vulnerable Russia, but not a complete dumpster fire they have to deal with.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

relevant to the discussion about bunkers. These are probably a good tradeoff between cost and effectiveness - no wonder they are the ones getting shown off on camera!

You can always dig deeper or use stronger designs (like those bunkers on the beaches of Normandy, or the Maginot line), but at some point you hit diminishing returns. Note that I am not a military engineer so my opinion on where that point is means nothing!

 

Nothing wrong with these.  Look pretty robust and well laid out. I assume well sighted.  I think Russia is going to find out that minefields and trenches work both ways.

[Haiduk]

So, now we have details of today's missile strike on Kyiv. Today was a Day of SBU, so Russians obviously decided to shedule the strike for this date. When I wrote about allegedle strike on Kyiv hydro power plant I was wrong - it just features of Kyiv terrain can in this way reflect sounds, that you could think something exploded near you, but indeed it was in other place. Espacillay if explosion took place high in the air. 

So, Russian TG today drowned in extasy how their missiles destroyed buildings of SBU (building of SBU "was filled with personnel"), GUR (hey! They already two times destroyed this building in own reports!), "quarter of dormitories for GUR officers" (and showed a photo of smoke over old Khrushchov time houses - idiots, do they rellay think GUR oficers, elite, live in dormitories with cucroaches?), underground weapon factory and Patriot battery in Zhuliany airport.

All this with two missiles %) 

Real damage here. Both missiles were shot down, but since these were newest hypersonic missiles "Zirkon", their fragments with high kinetic speed flew around the city and fell down in four districts.

Students of Fine Arts and Design univercity have strong angelic protection - a large fragment of missile destroyed their sport hall - nobody was killed. Russians claimed the missile destroyed Civil Defense HQ, deployed in the same building, but as you can see there are no trails of explosion or falme, even windows mostly intcat. Just huge kinectic strike, which ruined old brick building.  

Other large fragment of missile fell down between private houses in SW outskrirt of the city In Zhuliany and makes deep crater (aha! this is "underground factory"! Or Patriot was here?)

And here is fragment of 3M22 "Zirkon" missile. First time it was launced on Kyiv on 6th of Feb. It's unknown either it was just missed or it trajectory was shifted by close Patriot missiles explosion (or it was damaged by SAM), but then it fell down between two malls, accidentally causing damage to underground water pipes, electricity cables and tram ways. 

"Zirkon" overcame the distance between Crimea and Kyiv for 3 minutes. They were launched more likelu with ground launchers, though it was intended as anti-ship missile for Russian frigades "Admiral Gorshkov"-class. It has declared speed 8-9M, the range more 1000 km and 300-400 kg of warhead (probably 150 kg of HE). This missile flies on the height 30-40 km and Russians claim they have maneuver capabilities. Then on approach to the target, the missile dives almost like ballistic and hit.  

 

Well, we can shoot dawn this new wunerwaffe. It's good. But Kyiv now will be under threat of strikes with this weapon and this is bad. After today's atatck 10 citizens were injured, traumatized or just got high strees. But only two of them were hospitalized

Edited March 25 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

To achieve merely the stalemate now, we need more tanks, more IFVs, more shells, more air defense to Ukraine. Strip our defenses to supply Ukraine. Increase production. I call bull**** on these slow production times. More and now.

Wildly sending everything, all at once, would likely make things worse.  Last thing UA needs are more diverse fleets that don’t have a logistics backbone.  Heavy metal has had limited utility so send mountains of that - all taking up lane meters and weight, is counter productive.

Ammo, definitely.  Spare parts and key pieces of equipment.  AD and anything that contributes to denial is a good start.  The reality is that the UA could not absorb “all the guns”, so we need a well thought out and synchronized schedule that support Ukraine for the war they are in, and not the one we want them to be in.

Most importantly, and we can manage risk almost everywhere else, is C4ISR support.  Thankfully we do not have reports of the US/West walking back on the most important resource in this war…data.  They do that to the point Russia can achieve targeting superiority and we are in serious trouble.

This war is proving, repeatedly, that it is far better to know exactly where an opponent is at a given moment in space and time so that a single precision weapon can engage and kill than to try and sustain massive weights.  I think this FPV production scale up is the right way to go.  Mass precision beats everything.

[Haiduk]

New sattelite image of Russian large landing shio (claimed it's "Yamal"). GUR today made a statment this ship was under repair on Sevastopol ship-repairing factory and was struck by missile - it penetrated the deck and hull, causing a roll to starboard. On this image we apparently can see this roll and tugs, moving the ship to the dock to avoid her sinking. 

GUR also claimed one of missiles damaged 13th ship-repairig factory in Sevastopol

 

Edited March 25 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

It's claimed Moscow subway in these days. The crowd shouting "Allah Akbar!"

After cutted off ear and electro wires connected to genitalia of detained Tajiks all can happened. Jihad in Moscow... Mmmmm.... 

PS. ISIS made a statement they will revenge for tortures of own Muslim brothers and will prepare more acts of terror against Russians and personally against Putin. Alas, I don't like popcorn. 

 

 

Edited March 25 by Haiduk

[JonS]

8 hours ago, panzermartin said:

If the russian raids are that bad and 95% of missiles are intercepted why Russia keeps targeting Kiev and wasting valuable ordnance that could be used on the battlefield for instance. 

Asymmetric economic warfare? Cheap missiles shot down by expensive interceptors = win. Any actual damage on the ground is a bonus?

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

Cheap missiles shot down by expensive interceptors = win.

I don't think Kh-101, Iskander, Kinzhal and now Zirkon are cheap. Add here wasting of resources of Tu-95, fuel for them, etc. Attack on Kyiv about week ago, when 30 missiles were shot down cost Russia 390 millions USD with around zero effect. Yes, we spent 4 PAC-3 interceprors and about three dozens of NASAMs/IRIS, but I doubt it equal to Russian attacking means cost and completely can't be comparable with economical and military losses if all these missiles hit own targets. 

Edited March 25 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Thermal power plant was struck by UKR UAVs in Novocherkassk city, Rostov oblast this night. As result of damagiing and fire on transformers site the plant was forced to stop two power units

City aithorities claimed there are no UAV attack, but locals issued a videom where a sound of flying UAV is heard and then distant impact

  

 

Edited March 25 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

Asymmetric economic warfare? Cheap missiles shot down by expensive interceptors = win. Any actual damage on the ground is a bonus?

If Ukrainians spend 2-4 expensive missiles per hit, probably yes. I have no idea what is the ratio. I wouldn't call these missiles cheap though. Except the Shaheds probably. 

 

 

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I don't think Kh-101, Iskander, Kinzhal and now Zirkon are cheap. Add here wasting of resources of Tu-95, fuel for them, etc. Attack on Kyiv about week ago, when 30 missiles were shot down cost Russia 390 millions USD with around zero effect. Yes, we spent 4 PAC-3 interceprors and about three dozens of NASAMs/IRIS, but I doubt it equal to Russian attacking means cost and completely can't be comparable with economical and military losses if all these missiles hit own targets. 

Could truth lie in the middle? Maybe Russians get more hits than Ukrainian mods says. 

Or the Russians are reporting to their superiors that the strikes are mostly successful and they dully repeat every day and no one dares to object. 

Though they do seem to respect and invest effort in countering AD, with decoys, misleading paths, flares fitted to missiles etc...

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Could truth lie in the middle? Maybe Russians get more hits than Ukrainian mods says. 

I told exactly about week ago attack on Kyiv. If something important was hit, like one of workshops of LUCH military plant in December, causing death of 30 emoloyees it would be known. You can't hide anything in large city, when all have social media and cameras. 

Edited March 25 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Cargo aviation increased activity on Rzeszow airfield. For last day 5 cargo planes arrived. This may be due to Pentagon agreed to allocate 4 billions USD of own reserves for ammunition for Ukriane, so because of this such increased activity. Russian media claimed about 300 tons of military cargo has delivered to Rzeszow in last two days.

  

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

But certainly improved. Taking out Kharkivs city wide network was pretty efficiently done. The trend is shifting up for them and very unlikely to stop doing so. 

Hitting something in Kharkiv is going to be easier than hitting something in Lviv.  At least that's what the logic of deviation would indicate.

For sure Russia is able to hit some critical infrastructure, but the success rate is still extremely small.  How many transformers and LUCH type successes have they had for the thousands of missile/drones launched over the last 2 years?  By comparison it seems Ukraine has hit more critical Russian infrastructure in the last month than Russia has in this whole war.

Probably one reason Kharkiv was vulnerable to such an attack is the cumulative loss of infrastructure to attacks over the past two years.  Redundancy is never great in public infrastructure due to costs, so it's not like they have to knock out much to have an impact.  Yet when Russia tried to do a country wide shutdown of the grid it didn't work.

Steve