How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/C43rZNIrxHj

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/C43qrF_LJ6Q

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/C43qKzTL9gb

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/C43pvAXrmvi

 

Apparent Ukrainian strikes against multiple targets in Crimea, plus Belgorod. The actual war is not taking a pause because of the unpleasantness in Moscow.

[NamEndedAllen]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think this one is far trickier than first glance.  If Putin spins this as somehow a US/Ukrainian operation then he looks weak and incompetent.  This was downtown Moscow, not some outer berg.  This is clearly a security failure so pinning it on a war opponent makes that opponent look competent and effective.  This is counter narratives of “we are winning in Ukraine” which they have been continually pushing.  So while it may drive support into Putin’s arms for the war, it may very well create a lot of doubt as to his ability to protect Russian in this war.  

In fact a terror attack is just about the worst false flag op to run here.  A massive explosion complete with ATACMs debris along with dozens of others “shot down” makes far more sense.  An asymmetric terror attack by a few armed gunman simply looks and feels like bad housekeeping and a massive intel failure, no matter how hard one tries to spin it.

I have no doubt they will link this back to Ukraine, but already here this is a soft link. “Ukraine was providing haven, but did not mastermind the whole thing.”  I am sure the real wingnuts will come up with all sorts of conspiracy theories but in the end Putin cannot lay this entirety at the feet of Ukraine without making Ukraine look much scarier and effective.  So what will be interesting is whether or not he does.  If he does, then things are likely worse internally for Russia than we can see.  He is willing to take the risk of making Ukraine look like they “got in a good one” because support is seriously flagging and he needs to leverage this any way he can.  If they downplay and sidestep, things might be tighter and more stable  because Putin is not entirely backed into a corner.

Putin has already called Ukraine “Nazi-terrorists” it was his entire excuse for the war.  Demonstrating of given credence to just how effective Ukraine still is at being as such, after two years of war, really runs counter to the entire Russian narrative thus far.

Not claiming it was an FSB planned op. Just that Putin has had dirty fingers in such matters to rise to power, early. So there would be nothing new about Putin’s involvement in further terror attacks on his own people:  https://news.yahoo.com/putin-1999-apartment-bombings-ukraine-175001959.html
“There is “no serious doubt that Putin came to power as the result of an act of terror against his own people,” says David Satter, who has investigated the apartment bombings perhaps more thoroughly than any other Western journalist. “Someone capable of such a crime is capable of anything,” Satter told Yahoo News in a telephone conversation from Paris. “And the proper attitude towards him is deterrence, not partnership.”

 ******

The most damning evidence of Russian involvement, however, came from Ryazan, an ancient city steeped in Russian history not far from Moscow. On the evening Sept. 22, residents in an apartment building there saw a suspicious Lada sedan on the street below, its license plate crudely altered with a piece of paper. Responding officers of the local police found a bomb in the basement. It had been made with hexogen, a military-grade explosive (known in the West as RDX) that was only available, according to Satter, at one heavily guarded factory in the Ural Mountains, to which Chechen insurgents could not have gained access.

******

Russian investigators and journalists who tried to investigate the bombings often ended up dead. Among them was Anna Politkovskaya, a fearless critic of Putin who worked for Novaya Gazeta, one of the last remaining left-leaning outlets in Moscow today. She aggressively covered the Second Chechen War; in 2006, Politkovskaya was assassinated in her apartment building’s elevator.

“The murder that killed free media in Russia,” the Guardian would much later reflect of Politkovskaya’s death, which came on Putin’s 54th birthday.

 

Edited March 23 by NamEndedAllen

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some adequate people in Russia ask - well, you are Takiks and just made bloody murdering. Your faces are on each police patrol, around the city activated plan of interception. And you... even not wearing other clothes, sit all four in the same car, on which you arrived to make the attack, keeping own passports with you and drive... no, not to Petrovskiy market area, where huge Central Asian migrants getto, where you can just lost for authorities. You drive to Ukraine - through huge Fridays's evening traffic jams on the exits from Moscow, you drive through all these checkpoints, police, SOBR, which already hunting for you, through Rosgvardiya posts on the roads in rears of Russian troops in Bryansk oblast, through deployments of troops, through zero-lline positions, minefields, drones in the air - so even is Ukrainian side "prepared a window", what other Russian forces would be doing? 

And other comment form Russian social media - if you try to escape after terrorist attack to Bryansk oblast almost to Belarusian border and spend about 5 hours for this through Moscow Friday's evening traffic jams - immediatelly communicate with Formula-1, you will get a contract %)   

Yes, the idea that the four of them just got in the car they had at the scene, and then stayed together and drove down a major road until the got caught 500km away is... curious. I could kind of believe it if they were expecting it to be a suicide attack and didn't have an escape plan, but were so surprised that they could just get in the car and drive off that they thought they'd give it a go with no real plan.

If they had an escape plan prepared in advance, then this surely wasn't it.

Of course, do we believe what Russia says about how and where they were captured?

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Just for reference, here's a map with Bryansk blast outlines, and various routes - Red is quickest way out of Russia to Belarus, Blue is quickest way out o f Russia avoiding Belarus (i.e Ukraine), yellow is the route to Belarus via Bryansk.

The chief of Belarusian KGB made a statement he was in continous communication with his Russian collegue and main task of KGB was do not allow the teroorrist to cross Belarusian border. Belarusian KGG helped to detain them - this information from BelTA informatin agency. 

Initially there was information the car was stopped in 16 km from Belarusian border near Tyoplyi settlement. But later Dtate Duma deputy Khinshtein claimed this happened near village Khatsun' in 153 km to Ukriane and 250 km to Belarus.

 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

There would be nothing new about Putin’s involvement in further terror attacks on his own people:  https://news.yahoo.com/putin-1999-apartment-bombings-ukraine-175001959.html
“There is “no serious doubt that Putin came to power as the result of an act of terror against his own people,” says David Satter, who has investigated the apartment bombings perhaps more thoroughly than any other Western journalist. “Someone capable of such a crime is capable of anything,” Satter told Yahoo News in a telephone conversation from Paris. “And the proper attitude towards him is deterrence, not partnership.”

 ******

The most damning evidence of Russian involvement, however, came from Ryazan, an ancient city steeped in Russian history not far from Moscow. On the evening Sept. 22, residents in an apartment building there saw a suspicious Lada sedan on the street below, its license plate crudely altered with a piece of paper. Responding officers of the local police found a bomb in the basement. It had been made with hexogen, a military-grade explosive (known in the West as RDX) that was only available, according to Satter, at one heavily guarded factory in the Ural Mountains, to which Chechen insurgents could not have gained access.

 

******

Russian investigators and journalists who tried to investigate the bombings often ended up dead. Among them was Anna Politkovskaya, a fearless critic of Putin who worked for Novaya Gazeta, one of the last remaining left-leaning outlets in Moscow today. She aggressively covered the Second Chechen War; in 2006, Politkovskaya was assassinated in her apartment building’s elevator.

“The murder that killed free media in Russia,” the Guardian would much later reflect of Politkovskaya’s death, which came on Putin’s 54th birthday.

 

Ok, so what?  In '99 Putin used terror as a mechanism to take power.  In 2024...he is already in power.  Major terror attacks in Moscow are now his problem because he is supposed to be the new czar and lead Russians to a glorious new empire.  Having a terror group poop all over that is not good news anyway he spins this...he is the state.  

Putin just sent 100k+ countrymen to die in a useless war he started.  No one is doubting his capacity to "do dirty".  What is in doubt is the utility and practicality of another staged terror attack in the current context.    

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

More simply put, it may very well have had little or nothing to do with this war.  ISIS-K may be taking advantage of Russian security being overstretched because of the war but their motives/objectives have little to do with the war itself.

That is a highly plausible scenario. Big planet, many players with many longstanding feuds, antipathies, deep-seated hatreds and motives for revenge. Difficult to penetrate the fog.

[Haiduk]

And some detal of these Tajiks detaining - Russian special police serviceman (but with Black Sun chevron by some reason) or whoever it was cut the ear of this guy and forced him to chew it. After this the video was shared in TG. Russians like bloody shows

Warning, grafic content!

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1771545767250956576

I wonder, how much ears now Tajik migrants teens will cut from Russian teens in own showdowns.  

And of course, Kadyrov already made a statement his troopers also assisted in detaining of terrorists and will be awarded. 

 

Edited March 23 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

34 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The only mention of location I've seen (in English) has been "the Bryansk Region", which would usually mean "Bryansk Oblast" rather than specifically the city of Bryansk. The M3 from Moscow runs through Bryansk oblast to Ukraine and within 20km or Bryansk city. You could turn off the M3, go through Bryansk and on to a road to southern Belarus, but that's not the shortest way out of Russia into Belarus (it's about 560km, while the shortest route from Moscow is straight toards Minsk and 400km).

If the goal is to get from Moscow, out of the country as quickly as possible, and avoiding Belarus which is not really getting out of reach of Russia, then 500km straight down the M3 to Ukraine (through Bryansk oblast) is the shortest and fastest route.

Good catch. However, speed may not be most important factor here but avoiding patrols. Also as I remember at least before the war there was one of staging points in Gomel for "refugees" ; presence of Middle-Eastern or Central Asiatic guys in Belarus would be suspicious several years ago, but not anymore. There were thousands moving across the country.

Also perhaps most plausible explanation is that these guys didn't think rationally and were perhaps surprised they survived themselves. From all previous attack in Western soil we know that escape is much more difficult than attack itself.

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some adequate people in Russia ask - well, you are Tajiks and just made bloody murdering. Your faces are on each police patrol, around the city activated plan of interception. And you... even not wearing other clothes, sit all four in the same car, on which you arrived to make the attack, keeping own passports with you and drive... no, not to Petrovskiy market area, where huge Central Asian migrants getto, where you can just lost for authorities. You drive to Ukraine - through huge Fridays's evening traffic jams on the exits from Moscow, you drive through all these checkpoints, police, SOBR, which already hunting for you, through Rosgvardiya posts on the roads in rears of Russian troops in Bryansk oblast, through deployments of troops, through zero-lline positions, minefields, drones in the air - so even is Ukrainian side "prepared a window", what other Russian forces would be doing? 

Yup, going into effectivelly a warzone border makes zero sense. There were example at exactly start of the war (1-2 weeks) when traffickers in Belarus/Ukraine/Poland used this scheme to smuggle people from BEL, into Ukraine and further by open border into Union, but that way was accidental and closed as soon as situation cleared and border fortified.

[Haiduk]

Sevastopol now. Despite authorities claimed "all aerial targets were shot down" locals report about several impacts in the city. There were explosions and fire in Kazachya Bay in the place of 810th naval infntry brigade deployment. 

Also some office building in the city was hit with big explosion. Several buildings got damages, there are some wounded citizens. There was and explosion in Balaklava too. Let's wait for firther information about results.

The impact inside the city

Sounds of explosions in the darkness

 

Edited March 23 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And some detal of these Tajiks detaining - Russian special police serviceman (but with Black Sun chevron by some reason) or whoever it was cut the ear of this guy and forced him to chew it. After this the video was shared in TG. Russians like bloody shows

Warning, grafic content!

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1771545767250956576

I wonder, how much ears now Tajik migrants teens will cut from Russian teens in own showdowns.  

And of course, Kadyrov already made a statement his troopers also assisted in detaining of terrorists and will be awarded. 

 

I wonder if the Tajik in question had anything to do with the attack? Or was just in jail for something random, and drew a very short straw? I have the strongest possible feeling that the Russians are making this up as they go along, and making any investigation into what actually happened impossible in the process. In a decade or so maybe we will at least find out what was the U.S. intercepts that prompted the warnings

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Am I correct when I say this rock band isn't a big fan of Vlad? If so, his audience won't be either...

Yes, the young audience may well be apathetic at best?  Pretty sure Putin cares very little for young Moscow partying liberals and their rock band(s). Expendables. Like the mobiks. Doesn’t prove any guilt of Putin, FSB only that those attacked are of lttle consequence emotionally and politically to his government. Yet their violent deaths certainly serve the purpose of propping up increased “security” laws and calls for enlarging the security forces. So there are upsides for the government’s social controls. Even if they had nothing to do with the attack. 

Edited March 23 by NamEndedAllen
HHaiduk mentioned the band was a Putin supporter. But young Muscovites? Probably just partying.

[Harmon Rabb]

AFU strikes in Sevastopol, Crimea flooding my Twitter feed. Good quality footage.

Edited March 23 by Harmon Rabb

[Haiduk]

Thread about situation with artillery shells in one artilery brigade (main tasks of artillery brigade is long-range firing on Russian reserves, command points, counter-battery fire)

I will not translate all, just some takes:

- situation with shells supply was getting worse after stopping of our offensive and most bad situation was in November 2023 - winter 2024. Often they hadn't work, because was nothing to shoot.

- But even their bad situatin was even better, than in some batteries of other brigades - they hadn't work at all, because whole battery could shoot 15-20 shell for a day, so some aretillery crews were disbanded and moved to infantry   

- in spring situation became to getting better, but anyway they have a lack of long-range HE shells, and esapecially precisiosn ammunition. Most of their ammunition now is DPICM for mid ranges. So their main task now to support infantry in defense and eliminating of enemy assault groups. Almost no counter-battery tasks.

- In conditions of artillery shells deficite, inside arty battalions became to establish FPV teams, which partially substituted a lack of precision ammunnition in close- and mid-range tasks.   

 

Edited March 23 by Haiduk

[JonS]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Therefore, what Putin said is most likely complete fabrication. 

It could be technically true but wholly irrelevant. As in, "the terrs turned left out the back door and headed south down Stalinski Prospekt towards Ukraine!" Which, technically, yes, Ukraine is to the south of Moscow. 800-odd kms away. As long as they make no other turns.

By the same logic, if they,d have gone straight ahead they would be "heading for England!", back the other way would be "headed for Japan!", or a right turn would mean "headed for Finland!"

Edited March 23 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, going into effectivelly a warzone border makes zero sense.

Exactly why this is not even remotely plausible.  These guys planned the attack and they planned it carefully.  They managed to evade all kinds of security checkpoints and other active and passive security checks EVEN THOUGH the Russians were tipped off by the Americans.   To think they had a plan to go to Ukraine is absolutely not plausible.

However, what is plausible is as stated above that they didn't have a plan (or at least a good plan) to escape Moscow.  They might have assumed the Russian security forces would have killed them.  But in reality they ran out of ammo, burned the place down, and still no armed response.  They looked at each other, shrugged, and got in a car and figured going anywhere was better than nowhere.  No real plan, but unlikely they thought going to Ukraine was viable through Russia.  Maybe going through Belarus, but not directly through Russia.  Especially not with active border skirmishes going on since last week.

The problem I have with an improvised escape plan is that someone making such a terrorist plot would have thought of what to do under a number of ending scenarios.  Even if it was "go to the nearest subway and start pushing people onto the tracks".  So I presume they did have an escape plan and going to Ukraine wasn't it.

This assumes, of course, that Russia actually caught some of the gunmen and that they were caught where Russia said they were caught.  Big assumptions there.

Steve

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

AFU strikes in Sevastopol, Crimea flooding my Twitter feed. Good quality footage.

Thanks for not blurred video ) 

Russian sources write about launches from 9 UKR planes (in theory 18 Storm Shadow/SCALP). Nakhimov's avenue in Sevastopol is closed. But no infrmation where our missiles hit.

And this

Kievan regime has crossed all boundaries. (means "dare khokhols! We struck you so heavy, but you again hit something important in our sacral city?!")

Aha, 100500th red line.

[Haiduk]

Interesting polling

[Haiduk]

More probable target of UKR attack in Sevastopol was spotted due to the video - it's BSF communication center

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Beleg85]

Apparently they even had time to upload own-made videos from atttack to the Amaq. Easy job for these guys.

https://twitter.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1771657168665690479

Compared to last actions, modus operandi is similar. Plea, photo of bros with a flag, announcement, some extra clips from inside the attack and later recognition.

 

So it seems situation is now rather clear (Amaq News is official channel of IS) at least when comes to whom to blame. I wouldn't be surprised they even found a moment to visit drive-thru after hard working day. No hurry.

Edited March 23 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Apparently they even had time to upload own-made videos from atttack to the Amaq. Easy job for these guys.

https://twitter.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1771657168665690479

Compared to last actions, modus operandi is similar. Plea, photo of bros with a flag, announcement, some extra clips from inside the attack and later recognition.

 

So it seems situation is now rather clear (Amaq News is official channel of IS) at least when comes to whom to blame. I wouldn't be surprised they even found a moment to visit drive-thru after hard working day. No hurry.

And this, kids, is why you should not play with conspiracy theories.  You're likely to get your fingers burned.

Steve

[sburke]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now this is starting to make more sense.  This was a regional-based terrorist action.  This is more likely an opening shot on a Near Abroad break away because players smell blood in the water as Russia continues to be stretched by this war.

our problem here is we suffer from a bit of tunnel vision because of the focus on the war.  if it involves Russia, it must be about Ukraine!  We neglect that Russia has a lot of other issues completely unrelated to this war.  This attack may have nothing to do with the elections or anything else currently in our tunnel vision sights.  It could very simply be a long planned attack or one of opportunity given the way that ISIS is organized or not as @akd noted previously.  

[sburke]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

It could be technically true but wholly irrelevant. As in, "the terrs turned left out the back door and headed south down Stalinski Prospekt towards Ukraine!" Which, technically, yes, Ukraine is to the south of Moscow. 800-odd kms away. As long as they make no other turns.

By the same logic, if they,d have gone straight ahead they would be "heading for England!", back the other way would be "headed for Japan!", or a right turn would mean "headed for Finland!"

wait, you mean... they were headed to my house?!  I swear I never met these guys!

[Beleg85]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And this, kids, is why you should not play with conspiracy theories.  You're likely to get your fingers burned.

Steve

But admitt it, folks; this country sux at so many levels it breaks all measures. One would think that capital of authoritarian state at war with enemy four times smaller, full of all kinds of police, military formations, paramilitary formations, incognito formations on top of entire chain of spies, snitches and cameras would at least be relatively safe from this one type of danger. But hell no, hold my beer and all of that.

Russia long time ago races only with itself; time perhaps for occassional song from enemy camp:

 

[Kinophile]

Ship hit also?