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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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34 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

The beeb has done its verify thing on the narrative coming from the Kremlin: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68657383

image.jpeg.f9f4fddd9f059ca4f10b3cd04f11f292.jpeg

This is basically at the point that anyone in Russia who actually believes this is going to believe whatever the Kremlin says anyway.  The credibility of this sounds so hollow that I will be surprised if it shifts actual Russian sentiment in any real way.

Further, this has risk of blowing up in Putin’s face: after two years of “victory” by the Russian army, Ukraine can now string together a ISIS-K/Tajik plot for a terror attack in Moscow?  And worse, Russian intelligence and security failed to pick this threat up when it was coming out of a country they currently have in a choke hold?

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And worse, Russian intelligence and security failed to pick this threat up when it was coming out of a country they currently have in a choke hold?

Putin very visibly blamed US in his speech ("by hands of Kyiv regime"- note, Ukraine is only triggerman here) and in Russian imperial psyche it is not disgraceful to be smashed by superior Yanks. In other words, it was planned and executed by CIA- earlier US warnings will only support this line of thinking. They are read as threats rather than genuine information, even if we actually know now they were taken seriously in many places in Russia:

https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1772268163775840437

I am pretty sure that as time goes by we will see more "evidence" and propagandists in Russia and abroad will gradually work on minds of populace. 1-2 years from now heads of half of them will be in this strange, shadowy place Kremlin loves to be in- "Who knows, it's mysterious matter, everybody lies but most probably it's foreign agents".

Unless more similar acts will follow on behalf of IS-K, and fast, original simple message of islamic terror will be bended, broken and reforged dozen times. Also Kremlin propaganda will be multi-directed like always: Margo Simonyan, Solovyov and other scum will work on Ukraine trace (latter probably soon find out extra lead to UK anyway), Putin will wrestle with heroic geopolitical fight with USA (UA is beyond his dignity), Kadyrov will keep unruly parts of muslims for their faces and perhaps only Lavrov will have new tool to show how Russia suffers from US-sponsored jihadi menace, with wink sended here and there that perhaps they could use it as platform of further cooperation like proper empires should do.

Things will then likely gradually go back to its natural life cycle in Muscovia. Tsar is taking care fo its flock at the Kremlin, evil nazis are in Ukraine, globalists interests kept outside and their domestic opposition assets jailed. Like God commanded.

Edited by Beleg85
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47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Putin very visibly blamed US in his speech ("by hands of Kyiv regime"- note, Ukraine is only triggerman here) and in Russian imperial psyche it is not disgraceful to be smashed by superior Yanks. In other words, it was planned and executed by CIA- earlier US warnings will only support this line of thinking. They are read as threats rather than genuine information, even if we actually know now they were taken seriously in many places in Russia:

https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1772268163775840437

I am pretty sure that as time goes by we will see more "evidence" and propagandists in Russia and abroad will gradually work on minds of populace. 1-2 years from now heads of half of them will be in this strange, shadowy place Kremlin loves to be in- "Who knows, it's mysterious matter, everybody lies but most probably it's foreign agents".

Unless more similar acts will follow on behalf of IS-K, and fast, original simple message of islamic terror will be bended, broken and reforged dozen times. Also Kremlin propaganda will be multi-directed like always: Margo Simonyan, Solovyov and other scum will work on Ukraine trace, Putin will wrestle with heroic geopolitical fight with USA (UA is beyond his dignity), Kadyrov will keep unruly parts of muslims for their faces and perhaps only Lavrov will have new tool to show how Russia suffers from US-sponsored jihadi menace, with wink that perhaps they could use it as platform of further cooperation like proper empires should do.

Things will then likely gradually go back to its natural life cycle in Muscovia. Tsar is taking care fo its flock at the Kremlin, evil nazis are in Ukraine, globalists interests kept outside and their domestic opposition assets jailed. Like God commanded.

This is so frankly bafflingly short sighted and stupid…but of course it is Putin, the same strategist that came up with a quick invasion of Ukraine. US Intelligence - a nation whose weapons, ammo and data are actively killing Russian citizens - actually handed off actionable intel on this attack before it happened.  What does this say?  Well first off, US Intelligence has penetrated ISIS-K and was willing to risk assets in order to stop a terror attack…even against Russia.  This demonstrates that the US was still willing to prioritize terrorism over its current beef with Russia, and was willing to take significant risks in doing so.

Russia’s grand plan was to 1) ignore the intelligence, and then 2) poop all over the sponsor of said intel.  The reality is that Russia’s pants are down in all this and its @ss is showing.  The Stans are clearly hot and bothered at some level and ISIS-K is exploiting that.  This is the tip of a much larger issue.  So Putin’s grand plan is to burn any cooperation with the US…who are trying and solve his own problem.  And then wire some ridonculous narrative about Ukrainian NAZIs now in league with Islamic extremism, all backed by the CIA.  I am pretty sure those in Russia soft on this whole thing are not suddenly going to be galvanized by a cloudwork that Saddam’s ministry of propaganda could have done better on a cold start Tuesday.

Putins is not a mastermind, he is plate spinning.  At this point the world’s second largest nuclear power is being held together like a bad I Love Lucy skit.  And no one even bother to try and pull the “poor westerner…you simply do not understand the Russian mindset” card…this was about as dumb a damage control play as could have been made.  And no mystical Russian voodoo/goat hypnosis is going to change that.

Edited by The_Capt
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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Putin very visibly blamed US in his speech ("by hands of Kyiv regime"- note, Ukraine is only triggerman here) and in Russian imperial psyche it is not disgraceful to be smashed by superior Yanks. In other words, it was planned and executed by CIA- earlier US warnings will only support this line of thinking. They are read as threats rather than genuine information, even if we actually know now they were taken seriously in many places in Russia:

https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1772268163775840437

I am pretty sure that as time goes by we will see more "evidence" and propagandists in Russia and abroad will gradually work on minds of populace. 1-2 years from now heads of half of them will be in this strange, shadowy place Kremlin loves to be in- "Who knows, it's mysterious matter, everybody lies but most probably it's foreign agents".

Unless more similar acts will follow on behalf of IS-K, and fast, original simple message of islamic terror will be bended, broken and reforged dozen times. Also Kremlin propaganda will be multi-directed like always: Margo Simonyan, Solovyov and other scum will work on Ukraine trace (latter probably soon find out extra lead to UK anyway), Putin will wrestle with heroic geopolitical fight with USA (UA is beyond his dignity), Kadyrov will keep unruly parts of muslims for their faces and perhaps only Lavrov will have new tool to show how Russia suffers from US-sponsored jihadi menace, with wink sended here and there that perhaps they could use it as platform of further cooperation like proper empires should do.

Things will then likely gradually go back to its natural life cycle in Muscovia. Tsar is taking care fo its flock at the Kremlin, evil nazis are in Ukraine, globalists interests kept outside and their domestic opposition assets jailed. Like God commanded.

I'm surprised Boris Johnson isn't in any of those crowd photos... 

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24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Putins is not a mastermind, he is plate spinning.  At this point the world’s second largest nuclear power is being held together like a bad I Love Lucy skit.  And no one even bother to try and pull the “poor westerner…you simply do not understand the Russian mindset” card…this was about as dumb a damage control play as could have been made.  And no mystical Russian voodoo/goat hypnosis is going to change that.

;) Well, in most of our countries, unless hijacked by radical populists, government messaging must be roughly consistent on all levels. In Russia it doesn't. It it entriely possible their propagandists and even Putin himself talk about CIA hands in this (this is for domestic audence, and there may be in the same time contradictory messages at different segments of it), while their diplomats will send flowers and chocolades like crazy to Western partners with hidden messages like "Let's Meet at midgnight near Metternich statue, we will talk from bottom of our heart how together fight islamistic menace".

For me it is not so much a novelty as a proof that Putin does not calculate Western public in his major endevours like some specialists in the field still seem to think. That ship sailed; multipolar order now or never. From utilitarian angle, you are right it would be most productive for him to actually amplify ISIS trace; his diplomacy may actually still do that behind the doors. Who knows, if pressured consistently it could one day (after and during elections in US) be a trump card in "normalization" process or at least a tool to shift balance of part of American public. But Putin is too far on his geopolitical voyage for that. Love us how we are it or leave us, is his message for vatniks and opportunists in the West.

Edited by Beleg85
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45 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

;) Well, in most of our countries, unless hijacked by radical populists, government messaging must be roughly consistent on all levels. In Russia it doesn't.

I think we need to be wary of this sort of Russian exceptionalism. This stuff works...as it did for the Soviets, for the Tsars, for Saddam, for Mao...until it doesn't. "Working" in this context means simply that it delays the day of reckoning in the same sense that a man frantically bailing water out of a sinking boat does. 

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I'm of the opinion that we will see much more attacks like this carried out by angry ethnic and religious minorities who have a beef with Moscow and Russia in general in the future. I maintain my position that I will see parts of the Russian Federation break off in my lifetime.

I am curious how much longer can the Kremlin keep blaming The United States, Ukraine or the damn Smoking Man from the X-Files. Until it becomes obvious to Russians that these terrorist attacks are really conducted by groups that have nothing to do with the West, and big daddy Putin is not as all powerful all knowing and all seeing as he wants people to think he is.

 

Smoking Man.png

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Quote

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-says-it-thwarted-islamic-state-plot-to-attack-moscow-synagogue/

Russia’s FSB security service said Thursday it had killed Islamic State militants who were planning a “terrorist attack” on a Moscow synagogue, Russian state news agencies reported.

The FSB said an ISIS cell based in Kaluga, southwest of Moscow, had been planning to shoot Jewish worshippers at a synagogue in the capital.

 

This happened a couple of weeks ago, about the time of the first U.S. warning, and barely made a ripple. Clearly the theater was the second shoe that got through. Who knows what else ISIS-K has planned? It isn't like they have a shortage of very unhappy muslims inside Russia to recruit from. Who knows if Russia can roll up this network in time? Are there seven more? It is the down side of running the country on badly abused Central Asian labor.

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More satellite images of UKR missile strike on Sevastopol aftermath:

Average intelligense and communication ship "Ivan Khurs" got at least one hit in the deck at the stern area. The second missile exploded close on the pier

Screen from Russian TG says on the sattleite photo of 24rd of March near "Ivan Khurs" stands resque ship "Epron" of 145th resque vessels detachment, but this ship subordinated directly to BSF HQ, which wasn't here on the image of 23rd of March, so "Ivan Khurs" got damages and help of this vessel was needed

 Image

Image

Also Ukrainian side claimed today in result of attack former UKR large landing ship "Kostiantyn Olshansyi" (Ropuha-class), captured in 2014 during occupation of Crimea, was hit with Neptune missile. Russians suffering of LLS lack after losses about a year ago began to repair this ship, but now it got damages again

On the photo "Kostianntyn Olshanskyi" likely before 2022, stands in Sevastopol

ВМС заявили, що вразили Нептуном викрадений росіянами корабель Костянтин Ольшанський

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2 hours ago, billbindc said:

I think we need to be wary of this sort of Russian exceptionalism. This stuff works...as it did for the Soviets, for the Tsars, for Saddam, for Mao...until it doesn't. "Working" in this context means simply that it delays the day of reckoning in the same sense that a man frantically bailing water out of a sinking boat does. 

Oh, definitelly there is the limit to that, usually proportionall to its size, might and importance on global stage (which in this case is sadly significant). I simply descibed how messaging from Kremlin may look like in nearest future and why we shouldn't read too much into what will seem like incoherence between various narrations. It's not proof this entire system soon breaks apart, but neither that it is super intelligent, always centred on "what Westerners will think about me and how convince them". It simply works on slightly different framework than we are accustomed to when comes to power, identity, place in the world etc.- it's a fact, otherwise I see no explanation how it can serve such ungodly amounts of human meat further into this idiotic confict to only reassure itself it is still empire.*

To use my golem comparision, so far we (or rather Ukranians) didn't applied enough crushing force to break this strange creature...so it just sits there,  hitting with fists while broken at many palces and shaken by progressively more absurd internal troubles, but visibly expecting that its dumb inertia will carry it over to some solution.

*Or even worse thought sometimes come to mind- if Ms. Kabaieva would be more ingenious in her mistress duties served to this aging autocrat, perhaps all this bloody quagmire eating people could be avoided. But I seriously doubt it.

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I'm surprised Boris Johnson isn't in any of those crowd photos... 

https://tass.com/emergencies/1766181

Bortnikov, who always looks like this unwilling last hangman who is very sorry he must be there to cut your head off (I frankly think he is in serious depression), blame United Kingdom.  Probably more evidence will surface soon. ;)

Edited by Beleg85
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28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh, definitelly there is the limit to that, usually proportionall to its size, might and importance on global stage (which in this case is sadly significant). I simply descibed how messaging from Kremlin may look like in nearest future and why we shouldn't read too much into what will seem like incoherence between various narrations. It's not proof this entire system soon breaks apart, but neither that it is super intelligent, always centred on "what Westerners will think about me and how convince them". It simply works on slightly different framework than we are accustomed to when comes to power, identity, place in the world etc.- it's a fact, otherwise I see no explanation how it can serve such ungodly amounts of human meat further into this idiotic confict to only reassure itself it is still empire.*

To use my golem comparision, so far we (or rather Ukranians) didn't applied enough crushing force to break this strange creature...so it just sits there,  hitting with fists while broken at many palces and shaken by progressively more absurd internal troubles, but visibly expecting that its dumb inertia will carry it over to some solution.

*Or even worse thought sometimes come to mind- if Ms. Kabaieva would be more ingenious in her mistress duties served to this aging autocrat, perhaps all this bloody quagmire eating people could be avoided. But I seriously doubt it.

I think, put simply, these guys have so frequently sold everyone else a load of bull**** that they now have, given the unpalatable options, begun to believe it on some level themselves. In the course of Russian history (see Andropov or Nicholas II) that's about when things start to come unstuck.

 

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Speaking of blaming the CIA, as battlefront's resident worker democracy advocate I am sad to report that certain tendencies on social media are buying a narrative:

-That ISIS is a cia proxy,

-That like Beleg noted, the US warning is seen as confirmation of that,

-And that further evidence of them being puppets is that ISIS is not attacking Israel at the moment.

 

There are truly embarrassing people who identify with the movements.

 

 

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One of the russians seems to follow Madyar's content and noticed who was receiving the drone gifts.

A heartfelt message was written on the road on which he hunts🤣 just a couple meters further, a burning rus truck can be seen😁

Screenshot-20240326-184327-Instagram.jpg

Edited by Kraft
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4 minutes ago, Kraft said:

One of the russians seems to follow Madyar's content and noticed who was receiving the drone gifts.

A heartfelt message was written on the road on which he hunts🤣 just a couple meters further, a burning rus truck can be seen😁

Screenshot-20240326-184327-Instagram.jpg

What does it say? 

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