How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Billy Ringo]

About a year ago there was a solo shooter at a local school here in Nashville, The Covenant School.  First arrival police went in immediately and worked the building as quickly as possible, lives were lost but few compared to what it could have been.  Have heard their reaction was textbook  and they saved a lot of kids by their actions.

Maybe the failures of the past are studied and lessons learned. 

(Have a friend who had two kids in the school that day, both unharmed but obviously shook.(

[omae2]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Yeah we should definitelly, but also note that Russia also witnessed several bloody incidents of active shooters in recent years; reasons may be different than in US, but they have their own "Columbine effect" too, despite more restriction on  firearms (probably militarization of younger strata of society, rolling already before the war, is one of factors). Very few effective adjustments to procedures were made since then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izhevsk_school_shooting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perm_State_University_shooting

Islamic State did literally everything to prove it was them, including publication of photos, own-made clips from scene which was corroborated by all dependable intelligence agencies. Unless you suggest Russians somehow hacked now into all official IS media outlets and captured their entire narration.

Shaman may be on drugs or using previous template. Also, he is not exactly James Joice either, but banal composer for masses.

 

Nice clip from Novokuibyshchevsk rafinery drone strike; curious how suddenly these drones are loosing high at the target, it almost look like diving bombers from WWII.

 

I get why we are look like nutjobs, because we only have doubt but no proof. But any of you saw the faces of the killers on the recordings? Even on the bodycam footage their face is blurred their voice is distorted. I don't want to keep argue about nothing cause we have nothing to prove our point. I'm just saying that this whole thing stinks.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, omae2 said:

I get why we are look like nutjobs, because we only have doubt but no proof. But any of you saw the faces of the killers on the recordings? Even on the bodycam footage their face is blurred their voice is distorted. I don't want to keep argue about nothing cause we have nothing to prove our point. I'm just saying that this whole thing stinks.

Let's look at this as simply as possible: what about the Russian government for the last 20 years suggests to you that they are capable of a finely tuned false flag that somehow managed to fool the US government's vast resources pointed at ISIS-K?

[Kinophile]

Weeeeeeeee! 

 

[omae2]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Let's look at this as simply as possible: what about the Russian government for the last 20 years suggests to you that they are capable of a finely tuned false flag that somehow managed to fool the US government's vast resources pointed at ISIS-K?

The russians have criminals or pseudo criminals that sell weapons. In Hungary about 8 or 6 years ago two russian got caught while they tried to sell manpads to Mexican cartels. Both were given back to russia, both were released by the russian goverment. These criminal organization i think is in bed with the FSB. Selling weapons give you contacts around the world, that would make it possible to influence actors that otherwise would be hostile to them. But again, i don't want argue cause i have nothing. Its just offtopic at this.

[Kraft]

54 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Let's look at this as simply as possible: what about the Russian government for the last 20 years suggests to you that they are capable of a finely tuned false flag that somehow managed to fool the US government's vast resources pointed at ISIS-K?

Russia doesnt need to infiltrate isis, they just need to let it happen which they did. 

Examplary reaction Ive seen a few times:

Quote

Russians must unite as before in order to prevent this black lawlessness with their moral teachings and orders, and also stop at all levels and severely punish those government officials, etc., who give them citizenship, the opportunity to live in Russia, work, organize pop MMA, who close eyes on their crimes, who takes money from them and is involved in concealment.

These people are enemies of the People, who through their actions make it possible to commit crimes. This is another enemy of ours who sits in the rear while Russia is at war with the Western enemy on the territory of the so-called Ukraine.

My prediction: mobilisation focusing heavily on religious minority, their passport 'volunteers' have been exhausted, now the rest will be called in.

Who's going on the street to protest if its just muslims? Let them atone for their religious brothers with blood of their own, you will hear.

Just like they dont give a **** about the convicts who turned into maggot food, no muskovite will cry over the landfill of bodies they'll be dumped in, I guarantee you that.

 

Edited March 24 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

...with a colonial mindset.

Dear Gawd, please tell me we are talking about this:

 

[billbindc]

37 minutes ago, omae2 said:

The russians have criminals or pseudo criminals that sell weapons. In Hungary about 8 or 6 years ago two russian got caught while they tried to sell manpads to Mexican cartels. Both were given back to russia, both were released by the russian goverment. These criminal organization i think is in bed with the FSB. Selling weapons give you contacts around the world, that would make it possible to influence actors that otherwise would be hostile to them. But again, i don't want argue cause i have nothing. Its just offtopic at this.

Except this isn’t a grubby arms deal. The plan would have had to have set up a complex terrorist operation in Moscow which would have had to fool American intelligence in Syria and elsewhere. It’s just not credible and *there* *is* *no* *evidence* *that* *happened*. 

[Haiduk]

Here is today satellite shot of Sevastopol. Looks like both landing ships didn't catch fire - but one of them moved likely to the dock by tugs and in pier near the second is a scorch mark likely from missile hit (Rybar wrote aboute one missile hit the pier and other it the hull, but didn't explode).

At least both for some time will be under repair. 

 

[kimbosbread]

I think there is also a spectrum between false flag and real attack:

• You know something specific is going to happen, and you let it happen as you can benefit
• Grooming potential actors (FBI specialty)

Mobilization focused on Muslims is an interesting idea, but on the other hand that might backfire too… does Russia have the capability to put down a full-blown secession in Dagestan right now?

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, omae2 said:

I get why we are look like nutjobs, because we only have doubt but no proof. But any of you saw the faces of the killers on the recordings? Even on the bodycam footage their face is blurred their voice is distorted. I don't want to keep argue about nothing cause we have nothing to prove our point. I'm just saying that this whole thing stinks.

Clothes, postures and hair are identical. Their faces are visible on car camera recordings as well as this white car that was later stopped, but I get the last argument is weaker. What  about sudden hacking of all global jihadi media outlets?

Every violent and controversial event in Russia stinks. It's motherland of all global conspiracy theories by default.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Dear Gawd, please tell me we are talking about this:

Mighty scenography.

Edited March 24 by Beleg85

[Heirloom_Tomato]

What happens when ISIS gets mad that no one wants to believe it was them and keeps blaming Russia/Ukraine? 

[Haiduk]

Rare footage of tank vs. tank battle in this war. One UKR tank of 53rd mech.brigade as claimed hit three Russian tanks near Tonen'ke village (Avdiivka area). As for me that which marked on the video as "2" and "3" is the same tank. 

 

[Beleg85]

Unusual protection against drones on one Russian BMP. Looks like anti-pigeon hedhehog.

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Russia doesnt need to infiltrate isis, they just need to let it happen which they did. 

Examplary reaction Ive seen a few times:

Still here?  Not for long I expect.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

there is also a spectrum between false flag and real attack

Oh gawd. 20+ years later, and we're back to MIHOP and LIHOP.

[Kraft]

30 minutes ago, sburke said:

Still here?  Not for long I expect.

? Is there some issue between us that I am unaware of?

[Kraft]

Quote

From March 14 to 20, oil refineries of the russian federation processed 5.03 million barrels of oil per day. That's more than 400,000 barrels per day less than the average for the first 13 days of the month.

 

Kyiv is justifying the attack by the fact that it seeks to limit the supply of fuel to the front line and reduce the flow of petrodollars to the kremlin coffers.

 

The actual reduction in total oil refining is smaller because intact refineries have increased their throughput to ensure sufficient fuel production.

 

PJSC Rosneft accounts for more than half of the total drop in russian oil refining volumes over the past week, after two of its largest facilities were attacked in early March.

 

Crude output at the Ryazan refinery, which was attacked on March 13, fell by more than 160,000 barrels per day, about 63% below the average for the first 13 days of March. Rosneft's Syzran plant, which was attacked last weekend, reduced oil processing by 62,000 barrels per day over the same period, or 67%.

 

PJSC Lukoil's oil refinery in Norsi, which was damaged by a drone on March 12, reduced daily oil processing by more than 91,000 barrels, or 36%.

 

Almost a quarter, or about 97,000 bpd, is at the PJSC Gazprom Nafta refinery in moscow, which was not hit but began scheduled maintenance earlier this week.

 

As the russian authorities focus on supplying the domestic fuel market, any reduction in the country's oil refining will lead to a decrease in fuel exports.

According to preliminary estimates, drone attacks could reduce diesel production in russia by 6-8%. Supplies of diesel fuel and fuel oil for export may decrease by 120,000-150,000 barrels per day.

Edited March 24 by Kraft

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000650252082

Gallioti goes over the theater attack as well as it can be done. Short version, ISIS-K did it, and the rest of it is various bits of the Russian state either trying to cover their a$$es or take whatever advantage they can

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Unusual protection against drones on one Russian BMP. Looks like anti-pigeon hedhehog.

 

I really don’t see that stopping an FPV with an RPG round strapped to it coming in at 80kph.  And it definitely won’t do a damned thing against this little monster:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914714000348

 

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, Kraft said:

? Is there some issue between us that I am unaware of?

He is referring to the fact that Steve already shut this conspiracy nonsense down.  Keep pitching it and you will likely be sent on break.

Basically until you have credible proof - and so far all we have is one bleached blonde douchebag with an iPhone music video against a blank wall - you might want avoid speculation of this sort as it really is starting to look like the ghosts of John Kettler.

[Offshoot]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Dear Gawd, please tell me we are talking about this:

 

Disgustingly hypocritical generic crap. A day and a half might not even be considered regular for this.

[Kraft]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

He is referring to the fact that Steve already shut this conspiracy nonsense down.  Keep pitching it and you will likely be sent on break.

Basically until you have credible proof - and so far all we have is one bleached blonde douchebag with an iPhone music video against a blank wall - you might want avoid speculation of this sort as it really is starting to look like the ghosts of John Kettler.

I do not find that post but I will not comment on it anymore.

I find it odd why single me out, as it is still discussed by others and it was my first comment on the matter.

Edited March 24 by Kraft

[Offshoot]

5 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I find it odd why single me out, as it is still discussed by others and it was my first comment on the matter.

It's possible you were confused for another poster whose name is five letters and starts with "kra", but that's just a theory.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I really don’t see that stopping an FPV with an RPG round strapped to it coming in at 80kph.  And it definitely won’t do a damned thing against this little monster:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914714000348

 

This prompts my semi-regular reminder that for all that drones dominate the battlefield, we haven't seen anything yet.