How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To paraphrase a very famous philosophical question...

If someone commits an act of terrorism in a country that doesn't care, is it really an act of terrorism?

Steve

Actually, yes it is. Terrorism is defined by the intention of the actor not the effect on the target. 

[billbindc]

Galeotti is about as clear an observer of Russia as exists and he too is noting the weakness of the response: 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Actually, yes it is. Terrorism is defined by the intention of the actor not the effect on the target. 

Oh for sure you and I consider it an act of terrorism, but for Russians they might just think of it as Friday.

Yes, I'm laying on some heavy sarcasm, but my point is that for terror attacks to have an impact on society the society has to react.  When 9/11 happened nearly the entire US population was engaged and nearly unified on what had to be done in the immediate term.  Russia?  I don't get the sense that will be the case.  The reaction seems to be fractured, at best, with (I suspect) a lot of fatalism.  That's not what terrorists want.

Steve

[billbindc]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Oh for sure you and I consider it an act of terrorism, but for Russians they might just think of it as Saturday.

Yes, I'm laying on some heavy sarcasm, but my point is that for terror attacks to have an impact on society the society has to react.  When 9/11 happened nearly the entire US population was engaged and nearly unified on what had to be done in the immediate term.  Russia?  I don't get the sense that will be the case.  The reaction seems to be fractured, at best, with (I suspect) a lot of fatalism.  That's not what terrorists want.

Steve

No? 

I would think that a badly coordinated Russian message that has the cynical rolling their eyes, the demoralized more disengaged and the frightened imagining that the great enemy, America, is now directing attacks that strike at the center of Moscow is a pretty good result from the perspective of ISIS-K. It certainly won't hurt recruitment a bit in the Stans.

[Haiduk]

I can't recall either Kh-101 hit something in the darkness or not. But realy mosty of strikes on Kyiv with these missiles were on the dawn

 

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I can't recall either Kh-101 hit something in the darkness or not. But realy mosty of strikes on Kyiv with these missiles were on the dawn

 

Interesting.That's sort of a primitive yet smart system that is practically EW proof I guess. 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

No? 

I would think that a badly coordinated Russian message that has the cynical rolling their eyes, the demoralized more disengaged and the frightened imagining that the great enemy, America, is now directing attacks that strike at the center of Moscow is a pretty good result from the perspective of ISIS-K. It certainly won't hurt recruitment a bit in the Stans.

I don't know.  I think we're in uncharted waters here.  Either way this is bad for Putin's regime and, therefore, good for ISIS-K.  But is it what ISIS-K wants?  I have no idea because nobody has any clue what ISIS-K's broader strategy is or how this specific attack fits into it.

Think of Gaza.  Hamas attacked Israel with the obvious probability that the there would be an overwhelming and disproportionate military response.  As Hamas is a nihilistic cult, this is the sort of thing they likely wanted because it would (in their minds) get more Palestinians to join their cause.  But what if Israel instead said "you know what, we're not going to do that.  Instead, we're going to sit down and honestly try to figure out a better way to live together".  For sure this is not what Hamas would want and if Israel had done that then they'd probably immediately launch another attack.  Fortunately for Hamas and Iran, and unfortunately for everybody else, Israel did exactly what was expected of them.

So, if ISIS-K was planning on a strong militarized response (security sweeps, mass arrests, shutting down mosques, etc.), but instead get a muddled "meh" reaction, then that's not a good thing from their perspective.  At least not initially, anyway.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Intact warhead of shot down in Kyiv 3M22 "Zircon" was found. It's turned out much less, than Russian declared in open sources. Total weight 200 kg and HE weight 80 kg (was claimed 300-400 kg warhead). This may seem insufficint for anti-ship missile, but taking into account Zirkon on final stage of attack dives from 30-40 km alsmost verticaly with 9M speed, the impact of the deck and explosion could pierce the ship through.

A day ago one of experts, who explore this warhead said it may has no more 40 kh of HE and it's type will be determine in further researches. It's unlear, why quantity of HE raised from 40 to 80 kg, probably warhead was opened later and this allowed to determine a mass of HE

 

Edited March 27 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know.  I think we're in uncharted waters here.  Either way this is bad for Putin's regime and, therefore, good for ISIS-K.  But is it what ISIS-K wants?  I have no idea because nobody has any clue what ISIS-K's broader strategy is or how this specific attack fits into it.

Think of Gaza.  Hamas attacked Israel with the obvious probability that the there would be an overwhelming and disproportionate military response.  As Hamas is a nihilistic cult, this is the sort of thing they likely wanted because it would (in their minds) get more Palestinians to join their cause.  But what if Israel instead said "you know what, we're not going to do that.  Instead, we're going to sit down and honestly try to figure out a better way to live together".  For sure this is not what Hamas would want and if Israel had done that then they'd probably immediately launch another attack.  Fortunately for Hamas and Iran, and unfortunately for everybody else, Israel did exactly what was expected of them.

So, if ISIS-K was planning on a strong militarized response (security sweeps, mass arrests, shutting down mosques, etc.), but instead get a muddled "meh" reaction, then that's not a good thing from their perspective.  At least not initially, anyway.

Steve

<areas of COIN involved cerebral cortex begin to spin up, blinking lights, whirring and puffs of dust ensue>

It's pretty clear that ISIS-K wants to recruit more members of ISIS-K in Russia at this stage of the game by committing acts of terrorism that inflame an already quite hostile Russian cultural reaction to Muslims from the Southern fringe of the imperium which then alienates and radicalizes yet more potential recruits. To this end, an attack like that at Crocus also provides a clear signal that Moscow isn't just nasty...but weak, preoccupied completely by the losing war in Ukraine and not prepared to handle what ISIS-K can dish out. 

Russia did actually lean into pretty much what ISIS-K could have hoped for with televised tortures, ear lopping and the like...which is precisely the worst way to equalize both sides in the minds of fence sitters and videos of Russians assaulting random Tajiks are all over the Stans as we speak. What meh there was involved the messaging from the top...which underlined the how out of of touch the Kremlin is. 

All in all, ISIS-K has to feel pretty good about this round. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

NY Times had a decent piece about the ethnic tensions within Russia and the dangerous situation the regime faces in trying to deal with an increase in Islamic terrorism.  It's nothing new from what we've already discussed, but I thought it framed it nicely.  The ending of the article summed it up pretty well:

Quote

“They’re going to grab the Tajiks and blame the Ukrainians,” Ms. Gannushkina, the human rights defender, said. “It was clear from the very beginning.”

Still, Mr. Markov, the pro-Kremlin analyst, said he saw tensions over migration policy even inside Mr. Putin’s powerful security establishment. Anti-immigrant law enforcement and intelligence officials, he said, were at odds with a military-industrial complex that needs migrant labor.

“It’s a contradiction,” he said. “And this terror attack has sharply aggravated this problem.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/world/europe/russia-moscow-attack-migrants.html

One thing Putin's regime is *not* known for is subtly in its policies.  This is a tricky situation for him because his war effort relies upon migrant workers and service personnel, so any punitive actions against those groups (even if he limits it specifically to a subset) will likely have a negative impact on the war. 

Yet some inside the regime don't care.  The ultra nationalists are, as always, advocating extreme positions which are at cross purposes with their imperialistic agenda.  Kinda like a US company that wants low cost goods tomorrow saying there should be a trade war with China today.  Not compatible.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, billbindc said:

<areas of COIN involved cerebral cortex begin to spin up, blinking lights, whirring and puffs of dust ensue>

It's pretty clear that ISIS-K wants to recruit more members of ISIS-K in Russia at this stage of the game by committing acts of terrorism that inflame an already quite hostile Russian cultural reaction to Muslims from the Southern fringe of the imperium which then alienates and radicalizes yet more potential recruits. To this end, an attack like that at Crocus also provides a clear signal that Moscow isn't just nasty...but weak, preoccupied completely by the losing war in Ukraine and not prepared to handle what ISIS-K can dish out. 

Russia did actually lean into pretty much what ISIS-K could have hoped for with televised tortures, ear lopping and the like...which is precisely the worst way to equalize both sides in the minds of fence sitters and videos of Russians assaulting random Tajiks are all over the Stans as we speak. What meh there was involved the messaging from the top...which underlined the how out of of touch the Kremlin is. 

All in all, ISIS-K has to feel pretty good about this round. 

 

Yeah, if all ISIS-K wants out of this was to inflame the existing tensions and provide evidence of Moscow's brutality (ironic, given how they behave), then mission successful.  But if they wanted something bigger, like a massive security sweep and shutting down the border... I'm not sure they will get that.  Though the Nats are definitely advocating for it.

Steve

[Eddy]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but I found this an interesting read:

The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Here's the co-pilot summary of what is covered in the article

Quote

• Attritional vs Manoeuvre Wars: The article discusses the differences between attritional wars, which are force-centric and rely on industrial capacity to replace losses, and wars of manoeuvre, which are terrain-focused¹.

• Western Unpreparedness: It highlights the West’s lack of preparation for attritional wars, contrasting with historical preferences for short, decisive battles.

• Economic and Industrial Factors: The importance of economies and industrial output in attritional wars is emphasized, noting the challenges Western economies face in rapidly expanding military production.

• Doctrine and Training: The piece examines NATO and Soviet military doctrines, training, and the impact of attritional warfare on command structures and combat operations.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

More RUSI analysis from Justin Bronk.

Getting Serious About SEAD

Quote

The immediate lesson is that Russia’s failure and Ukraine’s inability to conduct successful suppression and/or destruction of enemy air defences (SEAD/DEAD) operations has crippled the battlefield effectiveness of both air forces. This is vital to understand because at present no Western air force other than the US Air Force has any serious SEAD/DEAD capability – despite, in many cases, having access to aircraft and weapons designed expressly for the task.

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It's pretty clear that ISIS-K wants to recruit more members of ISIS-K in Russia at this stage of the game by committing acts of terrorism that inflame an already quite hostile Russian cultural reaction to Muslims from the Southern fringe of the imperium which then alienates and radicalizes yet more potential recruits. To this end, an attack like that at Crocus also provides a clear signal that Moscow isn't just nasty...but weak, preoccupied completely by the losing war in Ukraine and not prepared to handle what ISIS-K can dish out. 

Russia did actually lean into pretty much what ISIS-K could have hoped for with televised tortures, ear lopping and the like...which is precisely the worst way to equalize both sides in the minds of fence sitters and videos of Russians assaulting random Tajiks are all over the Stans as we speak. What meh there was involved the messaging from the top...which underlined the how out of of touch the Kremlin is. 

All in all, ISIS-K has to feel pretty good about this round. 

We are just at the start of it. There is a good rule to wait with assessment of deeper societal effects of any terrorist acts for a month or even better- several. Kremlin will spin it more coherently, don't worry, especially when detainees will start to sign. I am also not sure about public torture and humilation as supposedly failed deterrents to potentiall islamists in russia itself; having one's balls fried publically by electricity is quite another thing than going straight into jannah in some glorified impersonal blast. Potentiall candidates will have a lot to think about, especially if they come from less-bellicose Central Asiatics rather than traditionally more troublesome Caucasian islamists.  

Anybody remembers Beirut and what Soviets did when their ambassador was kidnapped? In Russia it is considered one of greatest feats of counter-terrorism in their history, source of pride for another generations and way these things should be done- as opposed to actual hostage rescues, which mostly went catastrophic for them. None Western states purposefully and openly (Abu Ghraib was kept hidden) did anything like that as response to islamic terrorism and public tortures are de mode for something like two and a half centuries already.

Kremlin will also benefit in short term in perhaps more tolerance for press-ganging some poor muslim peons (they will likely have several dozens thousand recruits more), but even then people from Central Asia will find it attractive to live and earn in Moscow. They simply lack other choice.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

Actually, yes it is. Terrorism is defined by the intention of the actor not the effect on the target. 

The US definition maybe.  There is no universally accepted definition of terrorism.  Illegal violence designed to induce “terror” in order to accomplish political ends, is not that far off.  But just about every nation has its own version.

I think we are asking: what does ISIS-K get out of this?  Demonstration of an uncertainty.  That uncertainty drives people in different directions.  For some will push them towards the state to try and regain certainty.  Others will see the hope in that uncertainty and support the sponsor of the terror action.

A whole lot of terrorism is really just nasty theatre.  Terrorism is a mechanism of a strategy of Intimidation and/or Subversion (but the Socialist Revolutionaries pre-1917 came damn close to pulling off Exhaustion.)  It can be on the roadmap towards revolution and symmetric warfare, or it can simply be a bargaining position until enfranchisement is re-opened in a political process (see: IRA).  And sometimes @ssholes just want stuff to burn.

The trouble with ISIS has been that they are off the map with respect to nature of warfare.  They are not political (or at least not enough).  They are supernatural - God is at the wheel.  How does one negotiate with that?  The good news is that they are not homogeneous and have a lot of pragmatism in their leadership - despite the press.  But at their heart, the narrative is pretty hard to deal with from a negotiation point of view.

So in the end we cannot discount that ISIS-K is getting the good graces of God Almighty in all this and in doing His will, He will get their backs and give them a pure and holy Caliphate.  A state where they won’t be sucking hind tit but driving the Rules Based International Order.

So what?  Well normally the game is to map, infiltrate and erode, while doing enough high profile smack jobs to make the news and keep the home front happy.  I suspect Russia has a bigger problem than that on its hands.  And we are less and less likely to want to help them out, at least publicly.

Edited March 27 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Anybody remembers Beirut and what Soviets did when their ambassador was kidnapped?

I had to look that one up!  Yes, very effective when there is a larger organization/movement that can be directly attacked:

https://chroniclesmagazine.org/web/how-to-deal-with-hostage-takers-soviet-lessons/

This is similar to how Putin deals with critics or potential internal rivals.  Kill some easy targets that have connections to the real threat, then make it known that there's a long list they can go through if the problem persists.  Just one way that Putin's regime is difficult to differentiate from standard organized criminal organizations.

Steve

[dan/california]

Just trying to step back and understand the problem a little bit, Tajik language is very closely related to both Dari and Persian. These languages have been relevant to the Western intelligence community for a while now. That is probably why the U.S. seems to be at least as aware of what is happening in Russia as the FSB is. That said, what are the publicly available Tajik language sources we ought to at least be aware of? Are there Tajik Telegram accounts with some history being reality adjacent? How have those accounts responded to this whole thing so far? I mean press freedom in Tajikistan is not even a concept, so all that is going going to give you is the government line.

I keep coming back to big intelligence mistake at the beginning of the war in Ukraine. We had clearly penetrated the Russians communications more or less completely, but we believed the Russians own assessment of how the war was going to go. At least until the Russian army got stuck in around Kyiv, and then they and we, realized that what it was stuck into was meat grinder. I assume we still have pretty good insight into the Russian assessment of this whole thing, the private assessment, not the the propaganda BS, but do we understand how good that assessment is? It turned to matter quite a lot the last time the Russians got high on their own supply, are they about to repeat the mistake?

Edited March 27 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had to look that one up!  Yes, very effective when there is a larger organization/movement that can be directly attacked:

Not only when larger organziation is at hand; you only need adress of his family. People in most Muslim countries/communities are living communally in very large gatherings, sometimes dozens of relatives, cousins, older ones etc.; it is their families that gives them strength, socialize them and matter most. There are exceptions, but this is a general weakness known to Russians for centuries.

Way of pacifying Chechens was exactly that; attack and heavily persecute larger family, clan, village. Even brave to the point of suicide Chechen fighters didn't have answer when your 10th relative in a month comes back with broken legs and all fingers cut off, begging to stop fighting. Collective punishment is considered very effective way of subduing unruly muslims in Moscow; burden of taking sure none of your sons/cousins/brothers will do something stupid fall on larger family, so it also takes punishment in case. It's not like they have their individual rights or something, right? It didn't work in Afghanistan due to other issues, but is still basic modus operandi of muscovite services in such cases.

Now we already saw 11 persons arrested, including guy who lend car to assailants, owner of flat they lived in, probably their cousins, stepsisters and neighbours are already being intimidated- for now, mostly verbally. If Kremlin will keep it cool, limit itself to public tortures of assailants and  not go into heavy persecutions of entire groups of people, I doubt this entire incident will have long-lasting or profound repercussions. I expect at some point also Kadyrovites to be heavily involved as "good" Russian Muslims, despite Ahmad himself being rather silent lately.

Edited March 27 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

51 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I suspect Russia has a bigger problem than that on its hands.  And we are less and less likely to want to help them out, at least publicly.

I think on this front it was an unequivocal loss for Russia (if not a win for ISIS). The US saying "hey, watch out", being discounted disdainfully by your leadership and then it happening anyway is not exactly an endorsement of the state for that part of the citizenry that puts up with dictatorship to gain security.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Not only when larger organziation is at hand; you only need adress of his family. People in most Muslim countries/communities are living communally in very large gatherings, sometimes dozens of relatives, cousins, older ones etc.; it is their families that gives them strength, socialize them and matter most. There are exceptions, but this is a general weakness known to Russians for centuries.

Way of pacifying Chechens was exactly that; attack and heavily persecute larger family, clan, village. Even brave to the point of suicide Chechen fighters didn't have answer when your 10th relative in a month comes back with broken legs and all fingers cut off, begging to stop fighting. It's not like they have their individual rights like in the West. Collective punishment is considered very effective way of subduing unruly muslims in Moscow.

Now we already saw 11 persons arrested, including guy who lend car to assailants, owner of flat they lived in, probably their cousins, stepsisters and neighbours are already being intimidated- for now, mostly verbally. If Kremlin will keep it cool, limit itself to public tortures of assailants and  not go into heavy persecutions of entire groups of people, I doubt this entire incident will have long-lasting or profound repercussions. I expect at some point also Kadyrovites to be heavily involved as "good" Russian Muslims, despite Ahmad himself being rather silent lately.

But in Beirut, and even Chechnya, the Russians only had one goal, to pacify their problems with the situation. They absolutely did not care about how much collateral damage they did, AT ALL. They have a different problem now with the economic dependence on Central Asian labor that their economy has developed. The war in Ukraine of course has made this dependence much worse. Probably the Russians usual brutalist approach can put the lid back on, but it is not a guarantee.

Smoking accidents in unfortunate places have already had a real effect on the Russian war effort in Ukraine, a whole new source of such problems could matter.

Edited March 27 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But in Beirut, and even Chechnya, the Russians only had one goal, to pacify their problems with the situation. They absolutely did not care about how much collateral damage they did, AT ALL. They have a different problem now with the economic dependence on Central Asian labor that their economy has developed. The war in Ukraine of course has made this dependence much worse. Probably the Russians usual brutalist approach can put the lid back on, but it is not a guarantee.

Smoking accidents in unfortunate places have already had a real effect on the Russian war effort in Ukraine, a whole new source of such problems could matter.

Yes, I mean of brutalization as general modus operandi ("You see what happens, Larry?"), now it will be tailored to potentiall islamists at home and abroad- who aren't that many in all. No need of wide repressions; signal must be received by wannabe martyrs and their families only, that's why public tortures and humilitation (well, that + expectations of public).

Russians would never admitt they are "dependent" on some migrant workers. For one, I wouldn't expect too much from Kremlin economical considerations when in rage- if they would, they wouldn't start this war at all. Two- Central Asiatic workers are generally considered expendable labour that can be used pretty freely (thought, like in Galeotti's articles, there are pragmatic people at Kremlin that will likely tone down possible reactions). They were subject to press-ganging in their official workplace since war started anyway and cases of abuses by nats, neo-nazis and other hate groups are common as anyone can remember.

Edited March 27 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

UN report confirms Russian forces are torturing and executing Ukrainian POWs.  Doesn't mean much now, or perhaps ever, but it is still good to see it on the record at least:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-executed-32-ukrainian-prisioners-war-winter-un-report-reads/

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/world/europe/russia-moscow-attack-migrants.html

Worries Over Ethnic Tensions Have Kremlin Treading Carefully on Massacre

Anti-migrant rhetoric in the aftermath of the attacks at the concert venue outside Moscow has spurred fears that the tragedy could cause ethnic strife inside Russia.

 

We are flying blind without information about how this is being received in the Tajik community and broader Central Asian community. Twitter seems to hate me more by the day, has Kamil Galeev checked in on this? I seem to recall he is Tajik, albeit not exactly typical.

[Offshoot]

Wildberries is like the Amazon of Russia. It could be just a demonstration of what could happen, business as usual, or perhaps someone didn't get the memo about treading carefully. That would back up the quote above from the NYT about tensions over migration policy inside Putin’s security establishment.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia’s-only-strategy-success

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion.[1] The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion.[2] Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.[3] If we lean in and surge, Russia loses.

 

Lead paragraph of a longer piece.