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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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5 hours ago, Sarjen said:

Disturbing plane flights outbound Moscow. Private jets going for Dubai and whole lot of RSD Rossiya Special Flight Squadron going to remote locations in the east of Russia, including the Doomsday Plane Tu-214SR - callsign RSD79.

RSD75 is still live right now on FR24. It's taken a really weird flight path - up to the northeast over Siberia, then southeast towards the direction of Kharyyalakh, then southwest again towards Yekaterinburg (where the Czar and his family was killed). 🤔

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4 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

RSD75 is still live right now on FR24. It's taken a really weird flight path - up to the northeast over Siberia, then southeast towards the direction of Kharyyalakh, then southwest again towards Yekaterinburg (where the Czar and his family was killed). 🤔

With all this activity, I think I will eat a good meal tonight, tell my family and friends I love them. Earmark some new monies to Battlefront, get drunk and hope I wake up in the AM.

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sburke,

How on Earth can you rationally argue I'm posting on conspiracy when the a super qualified former military officer of vast experience and honorable service to this nation is talking soberly and seriously about what he perceives to be the realities of Ukraine, bearing in mind that he was the top advisor for the Acting SECDEF, Chris Miller, too? The firm he co-founded is devoted to consulting on foreign policy and defense matters, and his work has appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs. The same pseudo-logic being used to reject what Douglas MacGregor has to say could equally be used to reject everything we've gleaned from Russian information, on the spurious basis of where we got it.

The information stands or doesn't on the credibility of the source and how it stacks up relative to the various knowns and/or logical conclusions about the subject matter, based on observables, declaratory policy, etc. The reasoning being applied here by some woukld destroy intelligence work, because anything from the other side would be automatically rejected because of its origin. I have zero control ref who interviewed this man, but what I'm seeing here in the responses is that the rejections are occurring, not on the basis of the information itself, but simply where it appears. Suggest you do some elementary research about how social media and various actions directed against sites hosting not just conservative views, but even non-mainstream views from the other end of the spectrum, have all but. strangled expression of such views.

Channels have been shut down, sites demonetized, Google ratings downgraded (if you're not Page 1, you might as well not exist)and organic search traffic suppressed, and this list is by no means complete. Have experienced some of this myself in my own endeavors. There have also been well-documented moves in the financial sector, such as by PayPal, to deny the ability to donate or refuse to process payments to contrarian persons and groups. You may also find what happened to Parler and how fast instructive.  

The reality is that the ability of contrarian views to the ones promoted by the MSM and supported by the highly discriminatory and ever escalating censorship, suspension and permanent ban practices of Big Tech have made it hard to find places in which to express those views. And note well who is calling for yet more such actions and how that's being done. None of this is conspiracy theory, because the facts are plainly in evidence, and huge class action suits have already been filed as a result. The net effect of these things is to silence many potential hosts on the one hand and leave contrarians on what many consider to be fringe sites. I am keenly aware of the latest limits Steve has imposed and, as you know,I  have operated for years under an earlier set of topic limitation requests. 

In any event, because I consider this information he presented to be both important generally and highly pertinent to what we're seeking to do in this thread, I've found another site which hosts an interview Lt. Col. MacGregor did on Rumble. 

https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20220316/14523375/Colonel-Douglas-Macgregor-Putin-has-already-defeated.htm

Regards,

John Kettler

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1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Dammit!

dan/california,

That looked to me like a strike with well placed thermobaric munitions. Ordinary 152 mm HE shells simply would not have created the tremendous near hemispherical blast and radiating shock waves clearly visible by the rings of dust outside of the primary smoke cloud. The observables simply don't square with regular artillery fire we've seen in GPW footage, Cold War footage, Alabino live fire exercises and more, indeed, not with Ukrainian 152 mm fires, either. Nor was survivability improved by being in plain sight on the totally exposed steppe. hy the UA did not have camouflage nets up is beyond me. Important caveat. What I said is premised on the video in fact being both current and in actually depicts a recent Russian strike against a UA apparent battery (-). This in no way proves either to be the case. Absent snow on the ground, we could be looking at a Russian live fire test on the Poligon in summer.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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14 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

How on Earth can you rationally argue I'm posting on conspiracy when the a super qualified former military officer of vast experience and honorable service to this nation is talking soberly and seriously about what he perceives to be the realities of Ukraine, bearing in mind that he was the top advisor for the Acting SECDEF, Chris Miller, too? The firm he co-founded is devoted to consulting on foreign policy and defense matters, and his work has appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs. The same pseudo-logic being used to reject what Douglas MacGregor has to say could equally be used to reject everything we've gleaned from Russian information, on the spurious basis of where we got it.

The information stands or doesn't on the credibility of the source and how it stacks up relative to the various knowns and/or logical conclusions about the subject matter, based on observables, declaratory policy, etc. The reasoning being applied here by some woukld destroy intelligence work, because anything from the other side would be automatically rejected because of its origin. I have zero control ref who interviewed this man, but what I'm seeing here in the responses is that the rejections are occurring, not on the basis of the information itself, but simply where it appears. Suggest you do some elementary research about how social media and various actions directed against sites hosting not just conservative views, but even non-mainstream views from the other end of the spectrum, have all but. strangled expression of such views.

Channels have been shut down, sites demonetized, Google ratings downgraded (if you're not Page 1, you might as well not exist)and organic search traffic suppressed, and this list is by no means complete. Have experienced some of this myself in my own endeavors. There have also been well-documented moves in the financial sector, such as by PayPal, to deny the ability to donate or refuse to process payments to contrarian persons and groups. You may also find what happened to Parler and how fast instructive.  

The reality is that the ability of contrarian views to the ones promoted by the MSM and supported by the highly discriminatory and ever escalating censorship, suspension and permanent ban practices of Big Tech have made it hard to find places in which to express those views. And note well who is calling for yet more such actions and how that's being done. None of this is conspiracy theory, because the facts are plainly in evidence, and huge class action suits have already been filed as a result. The net effect of these things is to silence many potential hosts on the one hand and leave contrarians on what many consider to be fringe sites. I am keenly aware of the latest limits Steve has imposed and, as you know,I  have operated for years under an earlier set of topic limitation requests. 

In any event, because I consider this information he presented to be both important generally and highly pertinent to what we're seeking to do in this thread, I've found another site which hosts an interview Lt. Col. MacGregor did on Rumble. 

https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20220316/14523375/Colonel-Douglas-Macgregor-Putin-has-already-defeated.htm

Regards,

John Kettler

John, take a hint - you are derailing this topic with these unhinged rants of yours. Either take it to PMs or better, just zip it already. You aren't contributing anything to the conversation.

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3 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Nor was survivability improved by being in plain sight on the totally exposed steppe. hy the UA did not have camouflage nets up is beyond me.

I'm no gunner, but I wouldn't expect many fully camouflaged firing positions in a modern war. Counterbattery return fire should probably be expected, directed by means that camo won't affect in the slightest. The only reason I can think of to set up in a big, wide open field is so that you know you can rapidly re-limber and GTFO without having to worry about inconvenient trees or road edges or other obstacles... So if it's legit, it looks like a battery got unlucky, and was under the sights of an aerial observer who waited til they'd gone static before calling in the stonk.

That field looks pretty dry, though... Not quite the bottomless morass of black earth than has claimed so many invading vehicles to date. 

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Please, yes, the above.

But yah, that seems thermobaric. UA/RUS regular arty strikes are dark smoke/dust, with a horizontal blast cloud (?) and a vertical column. The blast rings here are an over=pressure weapon, to my untrained eye.

I doubt its a live fire training though. Plus camo nets wouldn't do anything for visual obfuscation.

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With regards the opinions of Col Douglas Mac Gregor - The more interesting thing to me is to try and understand why he is apparently supporting the Russians  and is so  against the Ukrainians ? Is it the Azov Connection alone ? 

How does one get from being the brightest military thinker in the US Army according to some - to  working with Trump and appearing on the Tucker Carlson Show .  To me that does not compute .

Its like a Nobel Prize winning Physicist  suddenly starts declaring the world actually is Flat .... I mean  how are you supposed to respond / By believing him  just because he has a Nobel Prize in Physics ?

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Interesting economic news here, not really sure I totally understand it. Would love for someone with more knowledge to come in and add something. Some are suggesting that the US allowed Russia to do this from a dollar denominated account despite the sanctions to shore up US investors. 

Temporary sanction loophole? 

Quote

The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has authorised transactions for U.S. persons for "the receipt of interest, dividend, or maturity payments in connection with debt or equity" issued by Russia's finance ministry, central bank or wealth fund, but the exemption runs out on May 25.

-via Reuters

 

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2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Interesting economic news here, not really sure I totally understand it. Would love for someone with more knowledge to come in and add something. Some are suggesting that the US allowed Russia to do this from a dollar denominated account despite the sanctions to shore up US investors. 

Temporary sanction loophole? 

 

More like draining Russian reserves. Faster.

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11 minutes ago, keas66 said:

With regards the opinions of Col Douglas Mac Gregor - The more interesting thing to me is to try and understand why he is apparently supporting the Russians  and is so  against the Ukrainians ? Is it the Azov Connection alone ? 

How does one get from being the brightest military thinker in the US Army according to some - to  working with Trump and appearing on the Tucker Carlson Show .  To me that does not compute .

Its like a Nobel Prize winning Physicist  suddenly starts declaring the world actually is Flat .... I mean  how are you supposed to respond / By believing him  just because he has a Nobel Prize in Physics ?

There is a video on youtube, if you search his name youll find it, from 11 days ago where he predicted now that the Russians had fixed the mistake of being "too gentle" they would win within 10 days. He also said that Ukraine should be neutralized, Zelensky isn't a hero but implied he was a murder for letting the people suffer needlessly, and said that a neutralized (with a few "border adjustments") Ukraine would be good for the US as well as Russia. The video I watched was tagged in Cyrillic, and the comments well. We wont called them unbiased.

This is a man whose cashed in his credibility so that he can get his face on TV. Fox likes him because they can wear his reputation and he sounds good. He knows the lingo. But you think about what he says is any number of clips and none of it really passes the smell test. Hes just towing a party line because its popular. He is about as credible a source at this point as Putin himself, because clearly hes one of these talking heads that will say whatever is in vouge right now to get attention.  

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17 minutes ago, riptides said:

More like draining Russian reserves. Faster.

Im not sure about this, it was a scheduled payment. Theyve got these bond payments scheduled a year (more?) in advance. This has to be something that the RCB has planned to pay for a while. The fact that it was paid in dollars not rubles means it came out of an account that was already under the vice, and so not part of the warchest people are talking about. In fact if anything this seems to shore up the warchest to the tune of about $110mil. Though news stories make it sound like the Russians were planning to pay in Rubles not in funds it has access to domestically, so it would have been probably a net wash in terms of currency reserves. The leading US debt banks were saying they would consider that a default so probably some major economic damage, which was just averted. 

RCB has another $2b outstanding this year, well see if the loophole closes when its scheduled to on May 25th. 

Edited by BeondTheGrave
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49 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

How on Earth can you rationally argue I'm posting on conspiracy when the a super qualified former military officer of vast experience and honorable service to this nation is talking soberly and seriously about what he perceives to be the realities of Ukraine, bearing in mind that he was the top advisor for the Acting SECDEF, Chris Miller, too? The firm he co-founded is devoted to consulting on foreign policy and defense matters, and his work has appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs. The same pseudo-logic being used to reject what Douglas MacGregor has to say could equally be used to reject everything we've gleaned from Russian information, on the spurious basis of where we got it.

The information stands or doesn't on the credibility of the source and how it stacks up relative to the various knowns and/or logical conclusions about the subject matter, based on observables, declaratory policy, etc. The reasoning being applied here by some woukld destroy intelligence work, because anything from the other side would be automatically rejected because of its origin. I have zero control ref who interviewed this man, but what I'm seeing here in the responses is that the rejections are occurring, not on the basis of the information itself, but simply where it appears. Suggest you do some elementary research about how social media and various actions directed against sites hosting not just conservative views, but even non-mainstream views from the other end of the spectrum, have all but. strangled expression of such views.

Channels have been shut down, sites demonetized, Google ratings downgraded (if you're not Page 1, you might as well not exist)and organic search traffic suppressed, and this list is by no means complete. Have experienced some of this myself in my own endeavors. There have also been well-documented moves in the financial sector, such as by PayPal, to deny the ability to donate or refuse to process payments to contrarian persons and groups. You may also find what happened to Parler and how fast instructive.  

The reality is that the ability of contrarian views to the ones promoted by the MSM and supported by the highly discriminatory and ever escalating censorship, suspension and permanent ban practices of Big Tech have made it hard to find places in which to express those views. And note well who is calling for yet more such actions and how that's being done. None of this is conspiracy theory, because the facts are plainly in evidence, and huge class action suits have already been filed as a result. The net effect of these things is to silence many potential hosts on the one hand and leave contrarians on what many consider to be fringe sites. I am keenly aware of the latest limits Steve has imposed and, as you know,I  have operated for years under an earlier set of topic limitation requests. 

In any event, because I consider this information he presented to be both important generally and highly pertinent to what we're seeking to do in this thread, I've found another site which hosts an interview Lt. Col. MacGregor did on Rumble. 

https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20220316/14523375/Colonel-Douglas-Macgregor-Putin-has-already-defeated.htm

Regards,

John Kettler

John,

 

There has been enough information in tis thread alone to show that what this guy is saying is complete nonsense. And it sure sounds that, like Carlson, he's about pushing out Russian propaganda. 

"super qualified former military officer of vast experience and honorable service to this nation" General John Flynn once fit that criteria but I wouldn't believe him if he said the world was round.

You're a smart man, John. You should know better. Let's take a deep breath and cool down for a few days.

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2 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Keas66.

This may interest you. Note this is from 2012.

 

Nobel laureate joins anti-vaccination crowd at Autism One (forbes.com)

 

Yeah - exactly ! - I was actually thinking about  that guy and another in the Covid / mRNA vaccine space but didn't want to  distract with another super hot topic . I would also add my questions about McGregor were kind of rhetorical - Fully aware of the mad things he has been saying  up to now with regards the Ukrainian conflict .

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1 minute ago, kraze said:

Radio Liberty Russia:

"71% russians feel pride because of invasion in Ukraine according to independent polls"

https://www.svoboda.org/a/nezavisimye-sotsiologi-71-rossiyan-ispytyvaet-gordostj-iz-za-voyny-s-ukrainoy/31757535.html

I don’t think that can be trusted Kraze. If polls in Russia can get you thrown in jail, that is…

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2 minutes ago, BamaMatt said:

Sburke, why would Russia not immediately sever Ukraine's ties to the Russian power grid on day one? 

I see no indication in that  link that it was not in fact the Ukrainians supplying power to the Russian Grid - just that they were ( historically) linked  . The Number of Nuclear Facilities they have in place  would suggest they were independent of supplies coming in from the Russian Grid . ?  Can anyone confirm ?

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