How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

11 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Disturbing plane flights outbound Moscow. Private jets going for Dubai and whole lot of RSD Rossiya Special Flight Squadron going to remote locations in the east of Russia, including the Doomsday Plane Tu-214SR - callsign RSD79.

 

 

 

Is Putin now bluffing and flexing its muscles or has he gone mad?

I think as he threatened, maybe a russian Kristallnacht is underway. And targeted oligarchs are fleeing? 

[kraze]

27 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Putin is determined, he is already sending reinforcements from Armenia, Far East, Osetia etc to replenish losses. Unless there is a coup or something, I dont see this ending soon. And if the reinforcements dont work, maybe we can expect some sort of reserve mobilisation. He has no way out. 

Him sending those reinforcements from other occupied territories, making them less defended, means his invasion army is in a very bad shape.

And those troops aren't going to be better than what already got mixed into the Ukrainian soil.

[Taranis]

Quote

« L’armée russe est bien loin de l’image qu’elle a projetée au cours des dix dernières années »
Trois semaines après le début de sa guerre en Ukraine, l’armée russe est à la peine. L’invasion de l’Ukraine montre les faiblesses de l’outil militaire russe, malgré les efforts déployés par Vladimir Poutine pour convaincre de sa toute-puissance, analyse Isabelle Facon, directrice adjointe à la Fondation pour la recherche stratégique et spécialiste des politiques de sécurité et de défense russes dans une tribune au « Monde », dont voici quelques extraits :

Confrontée à une résistance inattendue, tant de l’armée que de la population ukrainiennes, et subissant une importante usure de ses ressources humaines et matérielles, l’armée russe est bien loin de l’image qu’elle a projetée au cours des dix dernières années.

La modernisation de l’outil militaire russe, bien réelle et accompagnée d’un vrai soutien budgétaire, n’a pu être que progressive et sélective – car si la Russie reste parmi les pays consacrant une part significative (environ 4 % par an en moyenne entre 2010 et 2020) de leur produit intérieur brut (PIB) à leurs dépenses de défense, la faiblesse relative de celui-ci se traduit par une contrainte financière persistante.

L’institution militaire n’a pas non plus complètement remédié à une faiblesse chronique : la ressource humaine. Elle compte aujourd’hui deux fois plus de contractuels (kontraktniki) que d’appelés, mais, en raison de leur coût, ils sont moins nombreux que ce que souhaiterait le Kremlin.

Le Kremlin veut faire valoir des succès militaires avant d’entrer dans tout processus sérieux de négociations. Dans cette guerre, il ne peut s’appuyer ni sur une armée de haute technologie, ni sur l’ancienne armée de masse dans laquelle les ressources humaines étaient presque sans limites. Il doit faire avec une armée à plusieurs vitesses qui n’a réalisé qu’une modernisation partielle.

“The Russian army is a far cry from the image it has projected over the past ten years”
Three weeks after the start of its war in Ukraine, the Russian army is struggling. The invasion of Ukraine shows the weaknesses of the Russian military tool, despite the efforts made by Vladimir Putin to convince of his omnipotence, analyzes Isabelle Facon, deputy director at the Foundation for Strategic Research and specialist in the policies of Russian security and defense in a column in the "World", of which here are some excerpts:

Faced with unexpected resistance, both from the army and from the Ukrainian population, and undergoing significant wear and tear on its human and material resources, the Russian army is far from the image it has projected over the past ten years.

The modernization of the Russian military tool, very real and accompanied by real budgetary support, could only be gradual and selective – because if Russia remains among the countries devoting a significant share (approximately 4% per year on average between 2010 and 2020) from their gross domestic product (GDP) to their defense spending, the relative weakness of the latter translates into a persistent financial constraint.

Nor has the military institution completely remedied a chronic weakness: human resources. It now has twice as many contractors (kontraktniki) as conscripts, but, because of their cost, there are fewer of them than the Kremlin would like.

The Kremlin wants to assert military successes before entering into any serious process of negotiations. In this war, it can rely neither on a high-tech army nor on the old mass army in which human resources were almost limitless. He has to do with a multi-speed army that has achieved only partial modernization.

[TheVulture]

Russian column in Belarus apparently moving east out of Gomel in the direction of Dobrush, which is back towards the Russian border

 

 

[Haiduk]

Several destroyed Russian BMP-3 in Izium vicinity, Kharkiv oblast. Second part of video probably from other place of Kharkiv oblast.

Cameraman says BMP-3 blew up on AT-mines

 

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Never expected to see that old warhorse in action, seeing as how it entered service in 1955. A very intimidating looking weapon!

Regards,

John Kettler

They were returned to service since the end of 2014 to compensate barrel losses. Also they went to artillery battalions of new formed brigades. Though, this is the same howitzer with the same ammunition like SP-howitzer 2S3 just towed. 

[Haiduk]

The sea today much calmer, so Russian ships again on horizon and shell the shore of Odesa oblast

 

[Erwin]

4 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

Market exchange rates don't reflect the real cost of the fine in purchasing power terms. While the ruble is nearly worthless outside Russia, it's not as worthless in Russia.

"that court case against Ovsiannikova, where she was accused of all the horrors with seemingly having to serve 15 years in prison, immediately ended with... her having to pay a fine of $100."

Virtually no one has commented on her incredibly mild "slap on the wrist" $100(!) fine considering how harsh the "anti Russian" laws that have been passed.  There has to be a much larger story here.  Either she is a very connected VIP or someone is certainly protecting her... maybe evidence of a split with Putin by some powerful people.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Erwin

[Thomm]

Procrastinating like the best of 'em, I was trying to find out whether these S-8 rockets (at least) have a self-destruct mechanism. Found out that two variants exist (S-8P, S-8PM) which release chaff for confusing enemy radar. Maybe, just maybe, this may be an explanation for the indirect fire. Best regards Thomm

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

I guess it's a lot harder to launch a coup against someone sequestered in a nuclear bunker under the Urals.

Actually, it might be easier to do.  I reminded folks an eon ago (probably yesterday!) that the coup against Gorbachev happened when he went to his dacha.  The physically cut the communications lines and surrounded him with pro-coup forces.  They then had a cover story fed to everybody, internal and external, that Gorbachev was sick and that they were acting on his behalf.  If Gorbachev had been in Moscow this would have been much harder to do.

About the planes...

Russia knows these assets are being watched by Western intel and even open sources.  It's quite probable that anything ominous looking is part of the usual Russian tactic of making some strategic threat look more plausible.

As for the private planes flying to Dubai, that could very well be Oligarchs sending their families away to a friendly place that isn't experiencing hardships.  In the US we famously had a US politician leave for Mexico with his family during a storm disaster.  It didn't mean that the disaster was out of control, it just meant he didn't want to suffer the consequences of it.

Steve

[akd]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

MI-28 and KA-52 actually firing in the air to avoid combat? Not one but two doing this.

Can anyone definitely say there is no tactically legitimate way of using rockets like this? Any doctrine for this?

Yes, this is standard Russian practice, already seen in Syria.  Basically pre-planned flying MLRS.  Fly to planned IP fast and low over area controlled by friendlies, at IP pull up to X degrees on Y bearing, fire rockets then dump flares while dive turning back low, still over ground controlled by friendlies.  Rockets land in general area of target coordinates.

Edited March 17, 2022 by akd

[Erwin]

Well... after the attack on the theater that may have killed hundred of people and a lot of kids Biden has called Putin a war criminal.  All is escalating...

[DesertFox]

Dont know if we have already seen this?

 

 

[c3k]

The helos "loft bombing" their rockets: From the camera footage, it appears as if they both launched at similar angles and bearings from the same location. This is not "fire off my ammo and return". This is most definitely a long-range area-fire attack at a geographical target. Like, say, a city.  The flare use and the approach, fire, and retreat were planned. This was a trained tactic (if not trained, then at least briefed on how to do it before they took off), not an off-the-cuff, let's just check a box and live to see tomorrow's sunrise type of move.

 

Crumbling Empires

If the Russian Doomsday plane has relocated, it's reasonable to think that Putin has hardened up, as well. Whether it be in a nuclear bunker in the Urals, or elsewhere.

Pulling border troops from the edges of the empire to reinforce failure in Ukraine, reeks of desperation. Look at Belorus' open intransigence. The other satellite regions will note that this is a unique opportunity to get rid of Moscow's grip. Whether it takes form as open rebellion or just negotiating new terms on existing relationships is up to them to figure out.

Oligarchs fleeing...because rats leave the sinking ship first. They know what's coming. Either Vlad is clinically insane and they fear nuclear war in Russia, or they think Putin will come for them....or Putin's enemies (after the coup) will come for them. Any way you slice it, those in position of power, knowledge, and ability, see that their time is Russia is at an end.

Ukraine's stalwart defense has shaken the Russian Empire's foundations to their core.

 

[kraze]

40 minutes ago, Erwin said:

"that court case against Ovsiannikova, where she was accused of all the horrors with seemingly having to serve 15 years in prison, immediately ended with... her having to pay a fine of $100."

Virtually no one has commented on her incredibly mild "slap on the wrist" $100(!) fine considering how harsh the "anti Russian" laws that have been passed.  There has to be a much larger story here.  Either she is a very connected VIP or someone is certainly protecting her... maybe evidence of a split with Putin by some powerful people.

Again it's because this whole stunt was just a psyop to create an impression there are "good russians", most likely to save first channel from incoming sanctions.

At the same time this whole court case was there to show to the domestic audience that she was "punished". Wouldn't be surprised if that fine was paid by her channel.

Make no mistake - Ovsiannikova is one of the leading propaganda creators on the first channel, being a news editor. Her hands have been soaked in blood of the victims of her army more times than you could imagine and crafting lies is her job.

Edited March 17, 2022 by kraze

[keas66]

Please correct me if I am wrong - but this ability for opensource sites to view/track russian/nato aircraft is only  possible because the  planes/jets themselves have Identification systems turned on ? If they wanted to  they could turn these trackers off and remove themselves from commercial tracking sites ?

[Haiduk]

Mobilized DNR conscripts before sending to Kharkiv oblast in city buses

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Dont know if we have already seen this?

First for me!  Though there was recently some wreckage of a Blue 19 documented, so guessing it's the same one.

Steve

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Dont know if we have already seen this?

 

 

There was a photo of one of this crashed Su-25 and mentions that there the second fell nearby

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Please correct me if I am wrong - but this ability for opensource sites to view/track russian/nato aircraft is only  possible because the  planes/jets themselves have Identification systems turned on ? If they wanted to  they could turn these trackers off and remove themselves from commercial tracking sites ?

Yes, but turning transponders off is VERY dangerous.  Aside from the obvious problems of air traffic controllers being unable to effectively warn of potential mid-air collisions, there is the air defense networks to worry about.  Planes with transponders off will get picked up on radar and if the operators can't identify them, there's a chance of an interception.  There are work arounds for all of this, of course, however it only takes one mistake for a plan to fall out of the sky.

In any case, if those private planes leave Russian airspace they have to turn their transponders back on.  At that point they would be identified and their flight vector guessed at.

Steve

[billbindc]

 

I'm wondering what it says about Russian logistics that these assets remained in such a vulnerable position for what looks like three separate attacks that knocked out up to 22 aircraft. Were they simply out of fuel?

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Him sending those reinforcements from other occupied territories, making them less defended, means his invasion army is in a very bad shape.

And those troops aren't going to be better than what already got mixed into the Ukrainian soil.

Yes of course, just wanted to point that unless an agreement is reached somehow, there is no end in sight militarily 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mobilized DNR conscripts before sending to Kharkiv oblast in city buses

I have not seen this discussed before...

These conscripts, and even ones who have been fighting for the DLPR for some time now, have current Russian uniforms.  However, they don't seem to be getting body armor or proper helmets.  Seems to me this indicates shortages, which is not at all surprising.

Note that one of these guys is wearing a Cossack hat.  Black hat, far right.  When Russia was first stirring up trouble in Donbas the Cossacks (various clans) played a critical part in it.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Pryluky town area, Chernihiv oblast. 

Next ambushed convoy. One MLRS BM-27 Uragan damaged, other captured. Also Tigr and T-72B3 destroyed, but maybe this is other episodes around this town

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm wondering what it says about Russian logistics that these assets remained in such a vulnerable position for what looks like three separate attacks that knocked out up to 22 aircraft. Were they simply out of fuel?

I've been wondering the same thing.  Possibility one is that they suffered enough damage in the first attack that many were inoperable even though they look intact.  There was some rumors that Ukraine engaged the targets from the ground in the first attack.  Spraying MG fire all over the field might have done enough damage to keep them grounded.

Lack of fuel, however, is a very distinct possibility.

Steve