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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

My view is 100% the other way on Xi attacking Taiwan. This has been a brutal demonstration of what can happen to your plan for a "short, victorious war". And Taiwan is ten or a hundred times harder. A ~hundred miles of unfriendly ocean, and infinitely better defensive terrain when you get there. Helicopter born assaults have been demonstrated to just not be a thing anymore. Ponder transports going down with a thousand troops each on them, the bodies washing up on the Chinese coast. If you do win all you get is an expensive, and violently unhappy ruin. Xi is great many very bad things, but stupid isn't one of them. Xi also hasn't been at the center of the self licking ice cream cone of what he wants to hear for long enough to lose his marbles, yet.

 It is probably  a little in bad taste  to be analyzing  what is now  effective tactical level units  in a modern conflict but it seems like  this conflict is going to maybe trigger a review of how all modern armed forces are constructed . Infantry becoming  far more important , Armored Units less so . One thing we don't see yet   is the effectiveness of soft/hard kill systems in this AT rich environment which may be providing a small beacon of hope for anyone still promoting  Armor as the Queen of the battlefield .

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Hmmm.  Russia and China are closed societies who very closely attempt to control the narrative, internally and externally.   The method of control is disinformation, fabrications and stuff that falls in 'Woo' territory.  Therefore, I am immediately suspicious of anything the Russia and China disseminate.

John, keep to the military stuff and keep your views on various 'conspiracies' and such to yourself.    I have read the site that you posted about Snopes and read a number of their past articles and found them full of misinformation themselves.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

See, here is the problem, right here. China and Russia "official statements" are nothing but misinformation and propaganda to gin up opposition and fear. And THAT comes from the one link that you posted that is fairly legit, but even then, Pakistan and China are quite close, so just where do you think that came from? The other web sites are pure crap, and I'm being polite with that description.  

And it hasn't been since 2015. It's been going on since 2005 in an effort to sow dissension in Ukraine and against support for Ukraine. Everything you've posted is a string of Russian and Chinese propaganda. Everything. 

The DTRA is the US agency that assists countries in SECURING these facilities and others. It's obvious you didn't read what the actual agreement they are working under since 2005 says. Do you even know what the DTRA is and the work they've done over the years? One of your links seems to imply the DTRA is some kind of nefarious organization.

YOU didn't do your own checking. All you did was read conspiracies and propaganda and spam us with them. 

What "own research" did you do to verify even one item of this?

Dave

 

The response from DTRA including their statement at the UN in response to Chinese claims in Nov 2021

The U.S. Government responds to false allegations targeted at the DoD CTR Program. > Defense Threat Reduction Agency > HomeNews (dtra.mil)

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33 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

The US Air Force has been specifically collecting Russian RNA and synovial tissue samples, raising fears in Moscow of a covert US ethnic bio-weapons program

You can immediately tell where this load of BS comes from without reading anything else.

Only russians believe their "ethnicity" has a "unique genetic code" (putin and his cronies said so on multiple occasions).

But sure saying that evil US threatens your unique mix of buryat-kalmyk-chukcha-tatar-moksha-yakut-hanty-mansi-udmurt-about 20 other "russian" ethnicities is a perfect excuse to murder Ukrainian children in a nursery.

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10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

My view is 100% the other way on Xi attacking Taiwan. This has been a brutal demonstration of what can happen to your plan for a "short, victorious war". And Taiwan is ten or a hundred times harder. A ~hundred miles of unfriendly ocean, and infinitely better defensive terrain when you get there. Helicopter born assaults have been demonstrated to just not be a thing anymore. Ponder transports going down with a thousand troops each on them, the bodies washing up on the Chinese coast. If you do win all you get is an expensive, and violently unhappy ruin. Xi is great many very bad things, but stupid isn't one of them. Xi also hasn't been at the center of the self licking ice cream cone of what he wants to hear for long enough to lose his marbles, yet.

And aside from anything else, China is still years away from having a navy capable of launching a serious amphibious assault and being able to keep the logistics lines running over the 200km-ish strait of Taiwan to overwhelm Taiwan's army even in the absence of an US Navy carrier groups trying to stop them.

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OK, enough with the Kremlin BS about Ukraine bio weapons.  First of all, if it is coming out of the Kremlin we can pretty safely assume it is a lie.  Lavrov again stated today that Russia hasn't "invaded" Ukraine, the hospital they deliberately targeted was occupied by "Nazis", etc.  So every minute we spend discussing this we are doing exactly what Putin wants us to do... be distracted.

The only important element to this is that Russia is definitely laying the groundwork for a false flag attack.  Now that we know this, we can put it aside and hope they don't go through with it.

Since we are moderating against Russian disinformation more strongly in this thread than we usually do, consider the above a warning about what NOT to post about.

Steve

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Seems some people here are easily distracted by shiny objects.  Then they chase the shiny objects, being intrepid internet sleuths, and dig up more shiny objects.  Then they find that multiple shiny object sites have same shiny objects!  -- therefore reality of shiny object confirmed!  Excellent.  Well done, now we all know ...... what, NOTHING.  YOU ARE ADDING NOTHING. 

This is about the Ukraine war, not the fairy tales that Putin is spinning, each more ridiculous than the last.  Lavrov just denied that Russian even invaded! 

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10 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I dont think the Russians are going to be solving the 'Ukrainian Question' (pretty icky historical analogy tbh) by infecting the country with Salmonella en masse. And even if they did, they wouldn't need Ukrainian lab grown bacteria to do it. They would accomplish the same thing much more efficiently if they just carried around packs of Tyson chicken breast and rubbed one on the face of every man, woman, and child they met. Where I live, Chipotle exposes thousands of college kids to E. Coli every week...

Anyway this virus talk has gone really off the rails here. Not a lot of good reporting on it to discuss, crack Pakistani news blogs aside, and if there is a story there well never read about it. Either way IDK that its doing anything but stirring up ****fights. 

Again you don't think like russians think.

They are extremely delusional and keep going with their "pretend we are the good guys while doing unbelievable atrocities" agenda not unlike their "icky historical analogy".

So in their insane imaginary world they want to do it as least obviously as they can to make everybody else "question the narrative" (their modus operandi for at least 300 years). Like capturing a "biolab" and then releasing a bioweapon that they brought in themselves.

Without an actual "biolab" their BS will look bad like "Ukraine got nukes" looked bad on Feb 24.

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Another string of amazing posts by Haiduk, he should win a pulitzer for his war reporting. 

So, while it is anecdotal information, looks like more russian gear lost over last day or so.  And more evidence of why russian often flee w/o their armor -- missile panic.  Death coming from out of nowhere as the UKR forces use drones to guide them to ambush locations.

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I will add this to Steve's post, the conspiracy stuff is not welcome. Neither is the reaction to the conspiracy stuff. That is why the conspiracy stuff isn't welcome, because it brings on the reactions, which bring on reactions, which bring on reactions, etc etc etc....

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Where does Lavrov even go from there?   Is it going to be 180,000+ 'vacationers' decided to invade Ukraine after clearing out the vehicle parks from Russian bases, because why visit Ukraine in a Lada when you can use a fuel guzzling T72?  Seriously, Lavrov is the new Bagdad Bob.   Remember reporters asking Bagdad Bob about the sounds of battle nearby when he proclaimed the US forces were not near Bagdad.  Unabashed, he responded that that was the sound of US forces committing suicide.

 

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9 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

And aside from anything else, China is still years away from having a navy capable of launching a serious amphibious assault and being able to keep the logistics lines running over the 200km-ish strait of Taiwan to overwhelm Taiwan's army even in the absence of an US Navy carrier groups trying to stop them.

The article was about how the situation in Ukraine directly applies to what may happen to Taiwan as the Chinese learn the lessons demonstrated by the Ukrainian war. 

China doesn't have to invade Taiwan to create an international problem.  All China has to do is invade an unoccupied Taiwan island and occupy it... then another - rather like how Putin first started with Chechnya, Georgia, then east Ukraine and Crimea with no response from he west.  Are we going to war over an unoccupied island off the coast of China?

How about if China starts building more artificial islands along critical naval transport routes?  Ukraine situation is a big learning opportunity re western reactions for China.

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A couple people have asked me about the potential impact of the loss of power at Chernobyl. The below statement from the IAEA should be reassuring, as far as any danger from spent fuel. Recall that loss of all power was what cause the fuel damage at Fukushima. The difference here, not mentioned in the IAEA article, is that the Chernobyl spent fuel has been out for a LONG time, and therefore its decay heat rate is much, much lower than that at Fukushima. 

The other part of the article mentions loss of signals to safeguards. Reactor safeguards (in the IAEA sense, not the operating the reactor sense) are designed to monitor the fuel cycle to ensure that no nuclear material is diverted from its intended use. I don't see this as a big concern. The fuel is not in a state that is easy to make use of even in a dirty bomb, let alone make use of it for an actual nuclear weapon. For various technical reasons, the Pu in spent fuel from a standard power reactor is unsuitable for the warhead of a weapon. Russia doesn't need it. They have all the nuclear material they need. Ukraine has no interest.

IAEA statements can be considered reliable, for their transparent publication of information and analysis. Note that the IAEA is staffed by scientists, engineers and inspectors from many countries and as such, evaluations do not have political agendas. Their overriding concern is nuclear safety and nuclear non-proliferation.

Dave

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-16-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine?fbclid=IwAR1_gMc22fYSiWIfMeM59dXabh5MrKOtZeOXvQnQP2_7o1FqKksC8zfBEsA

 

 

Edited by Ultradave
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I am sensing the start of a Russian Meme around  Conscripts beginning to develop in the media stories coming out of Russia  . Namely that the reasons why the mighty Russian Army is doing badly is because some "bad" officials  included Conscripts in the force mix and that has impeded the progress of the  Army . These officials will be punished ! .

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6 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Where does Lavrov even go from there?   Is it going to be 180,000+ 'vacationers' decided to invade Ukraine after clearing out the vehicle parks from Russian bases, because why visit Ukraine in a Lada when you can use a fuel guzzling T72?  Seriously, Lavrov is the new Bagdad Bob.   Remember reporters asking Bagdad Bob about the sounds of battle nearby when he proclaimed the US forces were not near Bagdad.  Unabashed, he responded that that was the sound of US forces committing suicide.

 

The answer is obvious.  Ukraine is not a nation.  They are fighting Ukrainian nationalists inside Russia.

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6 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Attached is an image the the Russians are using of this alleged emergency order to destroy pathogens.  Maybe some of our Ukrainian members can confirm what the text in the order actually says.

Helpfully it lists all the 'pathogens' in latin alphabet (see below)

And to quote from another informed source:

Candida albicans N300 
Escherichia coli ATCC N25922 
Serratia marcescens N259
Shigella sonnei N151 
Shigella flexneri N170 
Salmonella rp B Typhimurium N91
Proteus vulgaris N14
Enterobacter aerogenes N190 
Staphylococcus aureus ATCC N25923
Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC N27853 
Escherichia coli O 55 N43-4
Escherichia coli B N15
Proteus mirabilis N25
Klebsiella pneumonia N38
Corynebacterium pseudodiphtheriticum N17
Corynebacterium xerosis NC 12078
Corynebacterium diphtheriae var gravis tox +
Corynebacterium diphtheriae var mitis tox -
Bacillus licheniformis BKM 1711
Bacillus stearothermophilus BKM 718

aKwHL.jpg

TheVulture,

Let's test that claim about how these pathogens have nothing to do with BW, shall we? Have italicized the important. passages in the below excerpts.

Serratia marcescens

 

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7 minutes ago, akd said:

The answer is obvious.  Ukraine is not a nation.  They are fighting Ukrainian nationalists inside Russia.

According to russian media they are fighting a full NATO invasion force in their russian lands - hence why they have trouble "capturing Kyiv in 2 days". Ukrainian nationalists have ceased existing in the first few days due to the incredible might of the "strongest army in the world".

Despite all NATO countries fighting russians - right now Kyiv is fully encircled and russian army has liberated about 40% of Ukraine

All while losing just 500 dead and 1500 wounded.

Edited by kraze
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2 minutes ago, akd said:

The answer is obvious.  Ukraine is not a nation.  They are fighting Ukrainian nationalists inside Russia.

Yes.  This is the standard Russian playbook.  "You accuse us of looting our own home.  That is ridiculous because it is our house and we can do with it what we want".  The fact that the Russian government and the rest of the world recognized Ukraine as an independent state after the Soviet Union broke up is inconvenient to them so it is ignored completely.  To them this is merely Western nonsense designed to keep the Russian people slaves, therefore they are justified in everything they are doing.  Fortunately, only a couple of nations are supportive of that position and none of them matter in any meaningful way.

Steve

 

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