How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[fireship4]

2 hours ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Craziest combat footage I've seen thus far. International Legion cornered Spetznaz in a building after they dismounted their BMP.

I had been waiting for this video.  Brave men, but personally I would not want to be anywhere near a volunteer unit like this.  I am willing to be corrected, but I assume any regular infantry, let alone an instructor, would have a heart attack looking at a house being cleared like this.  Eventually a tank was brought up to demolish it after the fact - something that I assume would have been a preferable first option, and that either circumstance or lack of training led to them going in.

I can see an argument that being close and throwing grenades in is better than being in an adjacent building if you don't have enough firepower, but surely even that would be dangerous if they have it set up right inside (I can imagine a second perimeter of sandbags inside, holes through the outer wall which are easier to see out than in, etc).

As to the artillery strike - they had been in the area for a while I think, which may have been enough, but I wouldn't be surprised if the occupants of the building called it in when it seemed all was lost or as the only hope for a breakout.

Hopefully more thorough training can be provided to these volunteer groups, so that their skills and co-ordination match their courage and selflessness.

Edited January 30, 2023 by fireship4

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Craziest combat footage I've seen thus far. International Legion cornered Spetznaz in a building after they dismounted their BMP. 

 

Ah, Part 3.  I've been waiting for this.  Thanks for posting.

That is absolutely intense, historically valuable footage right there.  What we are getting is an unvarnished view of combat with the benefit of commentary from the guys who were there.  In past wars we've got one or the other, rarely both.  This war is so very different in that respect.

The artillery round that hit them is a reminder that just because you have an enemy cornered and cut off doesn't mean there's safety anywhere.  Especially now that we have drones, better integrated comms, and PGMs.

Shame the tank wasn't available earlier.

Steve

[Artkin]

3 hours ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Craziest combat footage I've seen thus far. International Legion cornered Spetznaz in a building after they dismounted their BMP. 

 

Aaaaand this is why I play conscripts as troops. Not because I believe I am using conscript troops but rather that the CQB is all wrong.

Edit: This has nothing to do with tactics but rather the slow paced nature of CQB. I think ingame it is way too fast, and far too easy to spot -> kill contacts in buildings.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Artkin

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Indeed it is. Attribution is less developed and understanably much more difficult in the cyber realm than traditional kinetic attacks. The USA and other countries have had decades of investment and technology to detect and determine the origin of kinetic attacks. For incoming missiles this included massive radar technology, building the DEW line up in the Arctic, tracking ballistic missile submarines SOSUS, and all the related advances. Understanding the challenges and the capabilities needed to achieve similar success in the cyber realm has been a much more recent effort. However, the USA other nations have become more sophisticated at this. Often we know the means, the methods, and even the individual identities of not just state actors like the GRU in Russia, but of criminal groups that often work in concert with their home country. But the attacks in the USA have not been at the Pentagon’s defined act of war level.

Yup.  Definitely a tricky topic and I do understand that there's a lot more going on behind the scenes than we know of.  However, deterrence is helped by making it clear what the KNOWN consequences are.  Add to this what is threatened/promised at high levels behind closed doors, and then onto that hints of additional actions that are not being stated.

The primary reason, in my opinion, for having a lot out in the public eye is to make the people aware of what the policy is, have a debate about it BEFORE something happens, so that IF something happens the people will be in support of the policy.  At the very least they won't be surprised by it.

Your example of taking out AQ leadership on sovereign territory of other nations is a perfect example of this.  It's been explained to people, in part due to shared lived experience, that some nations knowingly harbor mass murders intent on committing even more harm to the world and there's no option but to go in and kill them in apparent conflict with international law (it is a murky area, unfortunately).  People are OK with this, with some caveats.  Those caveats come from the people and leadership pays attention to it.  For example, minimizing collateral casualties.

Obama made some policy decisions in 2014 and 2015 in concern with NATO allies about the "Little Green Men" threat, as well as cyber attacks.  And just ahead of this war Biden (finally) defined what the US defined as "war" against Ukraine and warned Russia that it would be held accountable.  This was back when it wasn't clear if Putin was going to shift gears to do a more traditional hybrid war instead of the moronic full scale invasion, so some of the gray areas were not put to the test.  A significant cyber attack on the West, though, was laid out as being grounds for Article 4 and 5, which is probably why we haven't seen one yet.  So possibly effective.

Also, I was always thinking "attack" and not "espionage".  I've heard and read some interesting discussions about this topic, but by and large it seems all nations agree that spying on each other is normal and possibly even healthy, while ravaging each others economies electronically is not.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

I had been waiting for this video.  Brave men, but personally I would not want to be anywhere near a volunteer unit like this.  I am willing to be corrected, but I assume any regular infantry, let alone an instructor, would have a heart attack looking at a house being cleared like this.  Eventually a tank was brought up to demolish it after the fact - something that I assume would have been a preferable first option, and that either circumstance or lack of training led to them going in.

I can see an argument that being close and throwing grenades in is better than being in an adjacent building if you don't have enough firepower, but surely even that would be dangerous if they have it set up right inside (I can imagine a second perimeter of sandbags inside, holes through the outer wall which are easier to see out than in, etc).

As to the artillery strike - they had been in the area for a while I think, which may have been enough, but I wouldn't be surprised if the occupants of the building called it in when it seemed all was lost or as the only hope for a breakout.

Hopefully more thorough training can be provided to these volunteer groups, so that their skills and co-ordination match their courage and selflessness.

All three videos, and the others from CivDiv, absolutely show how chaotic things are amongst the volunteer units.  The individual skill sets might be good, but cohesion seems to be lacking.  When you read/hear the descriptions from the guys there about the other guys in they are fighting with, it seems they hardly know each other.  Then there's the language issues, which don't help in any way.

I hate to say it, but 2-3 minutes before the guys went to the left side of the building and chucked grenades in I said to myself "why isn't anybody chucking grenades into the left side of the building?".  I've never been a soldier, I've never been in combat, and I've never had to clear a building... but it seemed to me the lack of coordination between the breaching and various covering teams (including potentially dangerous cross fire by a Ukrainian unit) prolonged the clearing.

The other thing I found myself wondering was why they didn't pull back and use that RPG or something else once they figured out the defenders were in dug in good and weren't going to give up easily.  Putting even an AT round through one of those windows would have probably caused more damage than the hand grenades.

Again, I hate second guessing anybody who is doing this stuff for real.  I know there's a difference between sitting at a keyboard and being there in person.  But we are here to learn and learning means analyzing and analyzing means critiquing.  Being judgemental, on the other hand, isn't usually appropriate or helpful.  Those guys in the video deserve respect.  Period.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Combined arms bit in today's thread from this feller:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/29/2149941/-Ukraine-Update-Tanks-are-nice-but-it-s-combined-arms-that-can-change-the-game

LOTS more AFVs coming to UKR than I expected.  At least the infantry will be riding w a little more style than before.

[Anonymous_Jonze]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Combined arms bit in today's thread from this feller:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/29/2149941/-Ukraine-Update-Tanks-are-nice-but-it-s-combined-arms-that-can-change-the-game

LOTS more AFVs coming to UKR than I expected.  At least the infantry will be riding w a little more style than before.

Unsung heroes of the war, trench cats.

[dan/california]

 

 

Good video on breaching operations.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Wait a minute, Scotch whiskey is from the same grain as beer! I’m a genius!

I stopped with cereal years before MJ was on the Wheaties box. I will take eggnog and with Paddy's to start a day on the links. Golf links, not sausage. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

 

Good video on breaching operations.

This is excellent!

Now think of doing that within heavily contested airspace and without fires deeper than 80km.

Well, Finns do it(myself have participated in such exercise) but indeed requires getting fires supremacy in the area including deep in the rear and totally deny the sky for the enemy. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Sir Lancelot]

4 hours ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Craziest combat footage I've seen thus far. International Legion cornered Spetznaz in a building after they dismounted their BMP. 

 

I’m curious why a well-trained spetsnaz team would corner themselves like that.  Seems like they might still be alive if  they retreated from the AO

Edited January 30, 2023 by Sir Lancelot

[Pablius]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The other thing I found myself wondering was why they didn't pull back and use that RPG or something else once they figured out the defenders were in dug in good and weren't going to give up easily.  Putting even an AT round through one of those windows would have probably caused more damage than the hand grenades.

Seeing the videos I was wondering why wouldn't they toss granades all at once from everywhere, but didn't think about the RPGs, maybe they save the RPGs for vehicles?

Can't remember if in CM you can make an infantry squads shoot AT4s or RPGs into buildings, Javelins I remember can be targeted at infantry.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, Sir Lancelot said:

I’m curious why a well-trained spetsnaz team would corner themselves like that.  Seems like they might still be alive if  they retreated from the AO

If it even was Spetsnaz. To these volunteer units, every Russian they come across will probably be some Elite Spetsnaz Commando Supersoldier, and every time the story gets retold he will be more elite 

[Aragorn2002]

12 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

The USA military at least has already determined what cyber attacks constitute acts of war, and that the LOAC applies in cyber space.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304563104576355623135782718
WASHINGTON – The Pentagon has concluded that computer sabotage coming from another country can constitute an act of war, a finding that for the first time opens the door for the U.S. to respond using traditional military force.

The Pentagon's first formal cyber strategy, unclassified portions of which are expected to become public next month, represents an early attempt to grapple with a changing world in which a hacker could pose as significant a threat to U.S. nuclear reactors, subways or pipelines as a hostile country's military.

In part, the Pentagon intends its plan as a warning to potential adversaries of the consequences of attacking the U.S. in this way. "If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down one of your smokestacks," said a military official.    

The Pentagon's document runs about 30 pages in its classified version and 12 pages in the unclassified one. It concludes that the Laws of Armed Conflict—derived from various treaties and customs that, over the years, have come to guide the conduct of war and proportionality of response—apply in cyberspace as in traditional warfare, according to three defense officials who have read the document. 
 

And The Times reported that “[A]ny computer attack that threatens widespread civilian casualties — for example, by cutting off power supplies or bringing down hospitals and emergency-responder networks — could be considered an act of aggression.” 

Excellent. Zero tolerance. You hurt us, we'll hurt you more.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[_Morpheus_]

3 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

If it even was Spetsnaz. To these volunteer units, every Russian they come across will probably be some Elite Spetsnaz Commando Supersoldier, and every time the story gets retold he will be more elite 

It's definitely work as you describe, but I don't think russia has a lot of BMP-2 M versions (destroyed one by the unit on the video). I don't think russia give their best equipment for conscripts (there were not too many during Kharkiv operation).

[Rokko]

27 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

It's definitely work as you describe, but I don't think russia has a lot of BMP-2 M versions (destroyed one by the unit on the video). I don't think russia give their best equipment for conscripts (there were not too many during Kharkiv operation).

They did equip the much vaunted 3rd Army Corps (which curiously has rarely been heard of since) with a good amount of T-90s and BMP-3s though, and that formation was apparently basically a collection of BARS battalions, manned by often old and barely trained volunteers in it for the cash. A part of that corps was also used during the Kharkiv offensive IIRC.

[_Morpheus_]

10 minutes ago, Rokko said:

They did equip the much vaunted 3rd Army Corps (which curiously has rarely been heard of since) with a good amount of T-90s and BMP-3s though, and that formation was apparently basically a collection of BARS battalions, manned by often old and barely trained volunteers in it for the cash. A part of that corps was also used during the Kharkiv offensive IIRC.

Correct, but for russians - 3rd Army Corps is super motivated/trained unit. 
I want to mention that DPR/LPR don't have such cool toys.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

17 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Correct, but for russians - 3rd Army Corps is super motivated/trained unit. 

Indeed. Russian military bloggers praised BARS as generally better than the pre-war regulars.

[JonS]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

(it is a murky area, unfortunately)

It really isn't.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Good video on breaching operations.

It is very good. However a few questions/comments come to mind immediately.

1. I am not sure if it makes sense to try and breach the AT ditch without any dismounted element to recce the ditch itself. I mean there could be RPG-men inside waiting for the perfect shot to bottom/side of the tank crossing the field bridge or engineers to blow the bridge ASAP after it was deployed.

2. Were the distances between vehicles to scale? Tanks and Brads seemed very bunched up.

3. They relied very much on smoke to obscure the breach from enemy weapons from beyond the objective. Would not work if the enemy has drones high up.

4. They assumed the use of DPICM against armoured targets

[paxromana]

6 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

If it even was Spetsnaz. To these volunteer units, every Russian they come across will probably be some Elite Spetsnaz Commando Supersoldier, and every time the story gets retold he will be more elite 

Like every German tank was a Tiger and every artillery piece an 88? 

[Bulletpoint]

6 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

If it even was Spetsnaz. To these volunteer units, every Russian they come across will probably be some Elite Spetsnaz Commando Supersoldier, and every time the story gets retold he will be more elite 

Yes who knows who they really were. In the version of the video I was able to see, there was heavy blurring over all casualties. What was not blurred out, however, were repeated requests to donate cash on paypal...

[Beleg85]

49 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes who knows who they really were. In the version of the video I was able to see, there was heavy blurring over all casualties. What was not blurred out, however, were repeated requests to donate cash on paypal...

This is clearing of village of Petropavlivka directly east of Kupyansk. From other sources we know Spetsnaz was send there as hasty reinforcent to plug the front;could also be BARS, though. But them barricading inside building seems indeed strange.

 

There is 3-parts documentary "Battle of Chernihov" dedicated to this battle early in the war.

https://www.hejto.pl/wpis/bitwa-o-czernichow-2022-film-dokumentalny-napisy-eng

One can check youtube links in summay above (summary in PL, one can autotranslate; while movie itself has ENG subs).

Edited January 30, 2023 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

Quick reminder Ukraine does suffer losses of western artillery, including SPGs. I hope NATO is prepped to keep increasing artillery shipments.

 

[Bulletpoint]

A couple of days ago, I posted a link about this guy and his team's grim work to recover bodies of soldiers killed in Ukraine and bring them home so their families could have closure. Unfortunately, his dangerous mission also cost him his life. Even though it's just one of many tragic stories from this war, I thought he deserved to be mentioned.

 

Ukraine war: Funeral held for battleground body collector

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64446436