How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

As an aside, something that I've been concerned about just got confirmed by a German friend of mine.  He has spent much of his career working for a private contractor that reconditions and resells used BW equipment, in particular vehicles.  He thinks Leo 1s aren't going to be that useful for anybody, Germany or otherwise, because nobody makes the parts for them any more.  In fact, he thinks the tooling for the parts might not be in storage anywhere, making it impossible to replace parts once they break. 

Of course the BW has a bunch of parts stored, so there are some on hand to keep the vehicles running.  However, we've seen how NATO has planned for this sort of war... it hasn't.  Which means whatever parts are in storage for Leo 1 (and Marders for that matter) are insufficient to keep them in fighting condition for very long.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As an aside, something that I've been concerned about just got confirmed by a German friend of mine.  He has spent much of his career working for a private contractor that reconditions and resells used BW equipment, in particular vehicles.  He thinks Leo 1s aren't going to be that useful for anybody, Germany or otherwise, because nobody makes the parts for them any more.  In fact, he thinks the tooling for the parts might not be in storage anywhere, making it impossible to replace parts once they break. 

Of course the BW has a bunch of parts stored, so there are some on hand to keep the vehicles running.  However, we've seen how NATO has planned for this sort of war... it hasn't.  Which means whatever parts are in storage for Leo 1 (and Marders for that matter) are insufficient to keep them in fighting condition for very long.

Steve

OK, bradleys and leo2s are just dandy.  This kind of thing is about the allies having a cohesive set of equipment to send.  Things that can be maintained and can help UKR in both the short and long term.  Which sounds to me like Leo2s and bradleys.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

OK, bradleys and leo2s are just dandy.  This kind of thing is about the allies having a cohesive set of equipment to send.  Things that can be maintained and can help UKR in both the short and long term.  Which sounds to me like Leo2s and bradleys.

Yeah, but could also be Challenger 1s, Leopard 1s and Marders. We will see in a few days I guess.

Rheinmetall is ready to undertake the modernization of Leopard 1 and Challenger 1 tanks for Ukraine. - UBN

Ukraine-Krieg: Deutsche Industrie bietet mehr als 100 Kampfpanzer für Ukraine an (handelsblatt.com)

[cesmonkey]

Interview with House Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Michael McCaul on CNN's State of the Union program:

https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2023-01-22/segment/01

Quote

They won't put one tank in until we give them reassurances we're going to put our Abrams in. If we did that publicly, that would unleash so many Leopard tanks, because there are 10 other nations that are looking for Germany to sign off on the tanks that they have given them.

That would be a game-changer, in addition to tactical missiles called ATACMS that can reach Crimea to take out the Iranian drones.

BASH: So, Mr. Chairman, are you arguing here for the U.S. sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine?

MCCAUL: A hundred percent. We don't have to send very many.

All we have to do is send enough to unleash what Germany has and what the 10 other countries in NATO have. NATO has to share the burden. One good thing that came out Ramstein, this summit, was that NATO countries are sharing the burden. It's in their backyard. It's in their best interests.

 

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of Russian attempt of advance in grey zone in Zaporizhzhia oblast western of Orikhiv between Russian-controlled village Konovalova and UKR-controlled Mali Shcherbaky village. 

Russian talks interception at the end of video: "Our regiment has sh...t itself again"

 

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Astrophel]

Vjatsjeslav Volodin, chair of the Doema, today warned via Telegram for a "tragedy of worldwide scale" should Leo 2 tanks be delivered to Kiev.  Apparently he threatened to use more powerful weapons should US and Nato deliver weapons with which terrain could be recaptured.  Reportedly he said that attacks on the currently occupied lands would be considered as attacks on russian terrain.  This appears to be a clear threat to use nukes should Leo 2 deliveries be made.

Maybe some Telegram followers can confirm this - I saw it reported in a reliable Dutch newspaper.  We appear to be back in mode call my bluff.

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Astrophel
spelling

[Sojourner]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which means whatever parts are in storage for Leo 1 (and Marders for that matter) are insufficient to keep them in fighting condition for very long.

All the more reason to send Leo 1. Pretty much anything that is sent will not be "in fighting condition" for very long anyway. Better to put them to good use rather than rust away in some warehouse.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Mid of winter %)

Though, maybe this is autumn video, but several days ago we had temperature record for 143 years in Kyiv, +10 C

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Fernando]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Germany "called the shots" during the debt crisis more than any other single nation in Europe.  The nations offered the deals put out by Germany had little room to negotiate.  Germany acted decisively and without "Scholzing".  That is leadership.  France, of course, was also a major player and acted in large part with Germany.

The fact that Germany was in large part responsible for the debt crisis due to bad lending practices, and the austerity strategy Germany championed is still controversial (putting it mildly), I agree it was not good leadership.  But it was leadership none-the-less.

But we're straying off topic here

Steve

"Leadership is the ability of an individual or a group of individuals to influence and guide followers or other members of an organization. 

Leadership involves making sound -- and sometimes difficult -- decisions, creating and articulating a clear vision, establishing achievable goals and providing followers with the knowledge and tools necessary to achieve those goals."

During the debt crisis, Germany did not articulate a clear vision, did NOT make SOUND decisions, nor established ACHIEVABLE goals and did NOT provide followers with the tools necessary to achieve these goals. IMO it was not leadership, but use of  economic brute force on other EU countries.

I fully agree we're straying off topic here 


 

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Fernando

[Huba]

It seems that there's no German blockade for other countries to send Leo2. I assume they will be OK with selling spare parts to the other EU operators too. Ideally they'd at least agree to continue the Ringtausch, but on Leo for Leo basis, or at least sold some of the tanks that are in reserve/ belong to the industry to fill up the ranks in countries agreeing to participate in the Leo Consortium. In any case, an important step forward:

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Current Russian OOB in Zaporizhzhia oblast according to Mashovets:

- 58th CAA (Southern military district)

---- 19th motor-rifle division

--------- combined groups of 429th and 503rd motor-rifle regimens, consisting of 2-3 BTGs each

--------- combined battalion of 4th military base (troops in occupied S.Osetia, Georgia)

--------- 292nd SP arty regiment

 

---- 42nd motor-rifle division

--------- combined groups of 70th and 71st motor-rifle regimens, consisting of 2-3 BTGs

--------- 2-3 battalions of 78th motorized Special Force regiment "Akhmat-North" (Chechnya, volunteer unit, not only for Chehens, created by Kadyrov and included in composition of 42th MRD)

--------- battalion of 291st motor-rifle regiment (in reserve)

--------- 50th SP arty regiment

 

- 36th CAA (Eastern military district)

---- two BTGs of 5th tank brigade

---- two BTGs of 37th motor-rifle brigade

---- one BTG of 11th air-assault brigade

 

Auxiliary units:

---- 4-6 battalions of 1430th motor-rifle regiment of Territorial troops and 129th rifle regiment of mobilization reserve of DNR

 

Rosgvardiya:

-----  3...4 combined groups of operative regiments (one of them 141st operative regiment from Chechnya), including Chechen battalions "Akhmat-South" and "Akhmat-Center"

 

Artilelry: 291st artillery brigade of 58th CAA (total  9-10 tactical arty/MLRS groups of divisional and Army level)

Army aviation: 3-4 squadrons, periodically reinforcing with 1-2 additional squadrons

Total - 25..28 battalion groups

Edited January 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

On 1/20/2023 at 2:47 PM, Beleg85 said:

. It's  also quite possible some Ukrainian tankers are conducting exercises on PT-91, but these things are kept very much in silence here..

As they should be! An intelligence “unit” is very adapt at developing “intentions” from what to many seem to be the most innocuous statements and releases. In fact, I don’t have a doubt that there are “Professional Agents” on this thread reading every word to try to determine the intentions of Ukraine, the EU, and the U.S.

One of the most widely used catch phrases during WWII was “Loose lips sink ships” it is still appropriate today, and members of this Forum really need to keep it in mind when asking “how many …” and “Are Ukrainians getting X and being trained on Y.” No competent military member or public official should be contributing to Russia’s “intelligence” by providing them with that type of data.

Nough said by this old Platoon Sgt.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Counter thread from a Finnish analyst to that Germany did nothing wrong thread:

 

[Haiduk]

 

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Well that would be why nobody is launching a real attack in that section of the front just yet. Global warming is simultaneously wrecking Putin's strategy to freeze Europe in submission, and keeping Ukraine from exploiting the mobiks while they are frozen and disorganized. I think Europe not freezing matters more, but it is an interesting question.

Edited January 22, 2023 by dan/california

[Huba]

Cover of tomorrow's issue of "Wprost" magazine:

[G.I. Joe]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

Cover of tomorrow's issue of "Wprost" magazine:

Fun fact: ostriches don't actually bury their heads in the sand - while they guard their nests, they lie with their necks flat along the ground, which creates the illusion from a distance.

(Don't mind me - spot the birder / natural history buff).

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[akd]

The ex-Marine M1A1s would be ideal. AFAIK, they already have German DM11 HE ammunition integrated.

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Cover of tomorrow's issue of "Wprost" magazine:

It seems to me that France and Germany disagree with Ukraine's strategy. That is the Russians use the Donbas as a killing area for the Ukraine forces and they don't care that they get rid of a few divisions of parole candidates aka the Wagner group. Like giving money to a gambler who is losing but asks for more. This war won't stop even if the Ukraine takes the Donbas but I think putins strategy of attrition with low quality troops is working. Strategic objective is to bleed the Ukrainian army. Both France and Germany reached once upon a time Moscow (Germany only the suburbs. A 60 ton MBT may not be the ideal tank (terrain) Ex Soviet MBTs were around 40 Tonnes for a reason

Edited January 23, 2023 by chuckdyke
spelling and add.

[MikeyD]

Yeh, for all we know the Pentagon may have simply looked at the bridge ratings across the country and said "Oh...lets not send them Abrams after all." I recall back in 1999 the US march into Kosovo turned into something of a farce as they struggled to get their heavy MBTs from point A to point B.

Edited January 23, 2023 by MikeyD

[Vet 0369]

15 minutes ago, akd said:

The ex-Marine M1A1s would be ideal. AFAIK, they already have German DM11 HE ammunition integrated.

Some of those former USMC Abrams might already be even closer to Ukraine than most folks know. The USMC was (is?) the Rapid Deployment Force charged with the defense of Northern Norway. As such, they had (have?), among other things, armor already prepositioned in storage caverns in Norway.

[chrisl]

18 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Yeh, for all we know the Pentagon may have simply looked the bridge ratings across the country and said "Oh...lets not send them Abrams after all." I recall back in 1999 the US march into Kosovo turned into something of a farce as they struggled to get their heavy MBTs from point A to point B.

I started wondering about that recently, too, based on vague memories of Soviet tanks being lighter than western MBTs so they could get across small bridges. As far as I turned up in a search of the thread, there have only been a few comments about tank weight and bridge capacity, and no detailed discussion.  It seems that all the western MBTs, including the Leo 2, are in the 60 T range, while the T-72 family are in the 40 T range, with the T-84 and T-90 on the heavy end at 46 T.  The Leo 1 is in the 40 T range, which might make it more suitable if the bridge capacity thing is a real issue.  I haven't seen anything that makes it clear that it is or isn't a real issue.  I suspect major bridges and rail bridges are fine, but there may be many small bridges over local feeder waterways that have lower weight limits.

ETA: Bradleys are about 25 T range, with uparmored versions around 30 T.

Edited January 23, 2023 by chrisl

[fireship4]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

It seems that there's no German blockade for other countries to send Leo2. I assume they will be OK with selling spare parts to the other EU operators too. Ideally they'd at least agree to continue the Ringtausch, but on Leo for Leo basis, or at least sold some of the tanks that are in reserve/ belong to the industry to fill up the ranks in countries agreeing to participate in the Leo Consortium. In any case, an important step forward:

 

This has been posted twice above, but I want to highlight it again - this seems like significant good news?  Or is it one wing of the government representing one party's position which may then be overruled by Scholz?