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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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The US news media is reporting on President Joe Biden's remarks today at a political fundraiser concerning the prospect of Putin resorting to nuclear weapons:

https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25

Here are some reported quotes:
 

Quote

Speaking at a fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “a guy I know fairly well” and the Russian leader was “not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.”

Biden added, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” He suggested the threat from Putin is real “because his military is — you might say — significantly underperforming.”

Quote

“I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden said.

Quote

He added that he was still “trying to figure” out Putin’s “off-ramp” in Ukraine.

“Where does he find a way out?” Biden asked. “Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?”

 

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Watch the whole thing. If I was Russian I would be looking to follow those two guys across the Bering straight. With or without a boat. "Crowd funding and local authorities are going to save the Russian army". I did NOT make that up. It is about half way through.

Edited by dan/california
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47 minutes ago, dan/california said:

"Crowd funding and local authorities are going to save the Russian army".

That kinda looks like they're learning something from the Ukrainians (TD and popular logistical support helped no end in the initial stages of the war, in miring the RU advances). As ever, though, they've learned the wrong thing from a good lesson.

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7 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

If this is true, it gives me hope.  For all of those that say that Russian culture is irredeemable, I ask 

If Ukraine was such a substantial part of Russia/Soviet Union just over 30 years ago, I have hopes that if there is actually a change at the top in Russia we could see a change in the overall regard for humanity across the board.

This may be a simplistic view, and I have no idea if the average Ukrainian from 30+ years ago had the same views as today's Russians, but it gives me hope and there are times when hope in your fellow man is all you can ask for.

Ukraine was under the russian occupation 30 years ago and russians kept repressing Ukrainians well into 1991. Ukrainians also wanted freedom and fought for it to various degrees through the whole russian occupation of 20th century.

An average Ukrainian certainly didn't have the same views. It's the same as saying Czechs had the same views because they were occupied from 1945 until 1990.

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10 hours ago, poesel said:

think that was rather a reference to H.P. Lovecraft and this guy: https://lovecraft.fandom.com/wiki/Yog-Sothoth

Yup, the 'gg' is also accepted spelling I think. It would be bad juju to piss off Yog-Sothot/Yog-Soggoth. You even found a picture with the weird green ray (since I am not Lovecraft I can't come up with a baroque juxtaposition of adjectives to describe it properly).

Didn't know about that book @danfrodo, sounds interesting!

Edited by BletchleyGeek
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4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

He added that he was still “trying to figure” out Putin’s “off-ramp” in Ukraine.

“Where does he find a way out?” Biden asked. “Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?”

Well, we all have been thinking about how Putin's off-ramp could look like, haven't we? There seems to be none (un)fortunately. He did not say that he's looking to offer him one, right?

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3 hours ago, Grigb said:

That's easy to explain. You see since in their heads Ukrainians don't exist - we also don't have a language, just a weird dialect of russian. But then russians hear Ukrainian language on the radio and go like "I don't understand a word, but it sounds actually slavic not russian, so must be Polish mercs!"

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1 hour ago, Huba said:

Well, we all have been thinking about how Putin's off-ramp could look like, haven't we? There seems to be none (un)fortunately. He did not say that he's looking to offer him one, right?

Putin off ramp?. Some speculate on a 5th floor exit, but he is more likely to "die in his sleep". And given an honourable send off.  Russian watchers think we would likely see a rightwing take over, rather than a liberal one ( the liberals have no guns). Many challenges ahead. Biden is right to warn over use of nuclear. He warned Putin over the invasion, but that didn't make any difference.

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20 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

A good analysis by a German colonel. The translator in settings does a decent job. Title Ukraine offensive operations, Russia under pressure.  

 

Apologies in advance to the German forum members and the good Herr Oberst, it is uncalled for but I could not help myself. The title of this is so Deutsche Wochenschau 1943....

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Just now, Grossman said:

Putin off ramp?. Some speculate on a 5th floor exit, but he is more likely to "die in his sleep". And given an honourable send off.  Russian watchers think we would likely see a rightwing take over, rather than a liberal one ( the liberals have no guns). Many challenges ahead. Biden is right to warn over use of nuclear. He warned Putin over the invasion, but that didn't make any difference.

Also, I read that US nuclear triad needs $500B worth of modernization, pointing at Putin being a dangerous jerk surely is a way to justify the spending here ;)

And now, some aircraft p*rn:

 

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It would appear that the withdrawal of the RuAF on the northern Kherson front was at least somewhat premeditated. The withdrawal apparently took place in a better order than in previous similar situations, but the overall picture of the events is still unclear. 1/

RuAF will try to group its forces for defense primarily along Bruskynske-Borozensk-Mylove. Around Stepne-Novoraisk-Krupytsya, some kind of reserve will probably be gathered from retreating troops and other similar units. 2/

The Stepne-Novoraisk-Krupytsya line will also serve as the last line of defense before Nova Kakhovka is within range of the heavy artillery. It is difficult to identify the units at the moment, but it is likely that the weak and burnt-out units will be combined under the VDV. 3/

In the direction of the T0403 road, 2-3 weak combat sections of the battalion were probably destroyed. Battles took place at least on the Shevchenkivka - Zolota Balka level, as well as on the Nobooleksandrivka and Duchany fronts. 4/

The AFU has now likely withdrawn all the dwindling RuAF reserves to this sector. This can open up opportunities to unexpectedly change the focus of the attack to other parts of the front. 5/

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