How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Remind me not to play hide and seek with Ukrainians.

I wonder what that guy's plan was. Didn't leave himself too many options.

Does Russian have a word for plan? Not much evidence of it.

[Artkin]

Is this just some nonsense? 

 

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Artkin said:

Is this just some nonsense? 

 

Of course. Why would russians ever announce **** they are gonna do?

[Elmar Bijlsma]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Does Russian have a word for plan? Not much evidence of it.

I just realized that the famous '5 year plans' are not referring to the duration of the plan but the maximum limit on plans.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[NamEndedAllen]

October 5th Update from ISW

Key Takeaways

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Russian forces conducted the first strike on Kyiv Oblast since June with a Shahed-136 drone.
• The Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General.
• Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
• Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.
• Russian sources reported Ukrainian offensive preparations northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 5.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the implementation of the Russian “partial mobilization” on October 5.
• Russian citizens who are economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority Russian communities continue to bear a disproportionate burden in mobilization rates and casualty rates according to investigative reports, suggesting that Russian authorities may be deliberately placing poor and minority Russian citizens in more dangerous positions than well-off or ethnic Russians.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the final formality in the process for illegally annexing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on October 5.
• https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5

[Artkin]

14 minutes ago, kraze said:

Of course. Why would russians ever announce **** they are gonna do?

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-belarus-border-war-russia-/32066770.html

In this video they have mixed opinions. The commander of the Northern Operational Group doesnt think so, but it was noted in the video that Belarus is building up rail and airport transportation infrastructure

[Huba]

Just now, kraze said:

Of course. Why would russians ever announce **** they are gonna do?

Batka is scared out of his mind. Putin is on him now, but when he falls he himself will for sure be facing at least an armed insurrection, or perhaps straight out invasion. I'm thinking of course of Belarusian regiments that train and fight in Ukraine, but not only.
According to Belsat TV(an opposition TV station based in Poland) a training program for future Belarusian freedom fighters quietly started in Poland - reportedly they already recruited 800 men, the program is approved and sponsored by Polish government.

https://belsat.eu/pl/news/05-10-2022-warszawa-800-bialoruskich-emigrantow-zglosilo-sie-do-walki-z-rezimem-lukaszenki/

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Batka is scared out of his mind. Putin is on him now, but when he falls he himself will for sure be facing at least an armed insurrection, or perhaps straight out invasion. I'm thinking of course of Belarusian regiments that train and fight in Ukraine, but not only.
According to Belsat TV(an opposition TV station based in Poland) a training program for future Belarusian freedom fighters quietly started in Poland - reportedly they already recruited 800 men, the program is approved and sponsored by Polish government.

https://belsat.eu/pl/news/05-10-2022-warszawa-800-bialoruskich-emigrantow-zglosilo-sie-do-walki-z-rezimem-lukaszenki/

I wish Poland would announce that any military units attacking from Belarus into Ukraine will be attacked by Polish air forces.  Don't need NATO permission for that, do they?  That would put an end to any Belarus-based attack.

[Huba]

Just now, danfrodo said:

I wish Poland would announce that any military units attacking from Belarus into Ukraine will be attacked by Polish air forces.  Don't need NATO permission for that, do they?  That would put an end to any Belarus-based attack.

I don't think this would work, cause AFAIK Belarus and Russia have a kind of Article 5 in their military alliance too, that would be quite risky
But I absolutely don't believe Lukashenka will make any move that would further antagonize Ukraine. If the shooting starts across the border, then there  will be zero hope for him to prevent the invasion/ insurrection, it would happen immediately and it'd doubtful how his army would react.. His only hope for survival IMO is to hope that conflict somehow does not spill into his territory before the war is officially over.

[danfrodo]

Just now, Huba said:

I don't think this would work, cause AFAIK Belarus and Russia have a kind of Article 5 in their military alliance too, that would be quite risky
But I absolutely don't believe Lukashenka will make any move that would further antagonize Ukraine. If the shooting starts across the border, then there  will be zero hope for him to prevent the invasion/ insurrection, it would happen immediately and it'd doubtful how his army would react.. His only hope for survival IMO is to hope that conflict somehow does not spill into his territory before the war is officially over.

oh, thanks. Excellent point.  If Belarus invades the army itself might decide to turn on Mr Moustache.  That would be funny.  

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

oh, thanks. Excellent point.  If Belarus invades the army itself might decide to turn on Mr Moustache.  That would be funny.  

The whole point of the very LOUDLY SAID new nuclear policy of Lukashenko earlier this  year was to deter a Ukrainian counter invasion of Belarus. And rightly so, from a strategic point of view because it's likely Lukashenko's army would either switch sides or melt away and Russian resources would simply be incapable of doing much about it.

[Aragorn2002]

36 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Does Russian have a word for plan? Not much evidence of it.

Pretty good body armor though.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The whole point of the very LOUDLY SAID new nuclear policy of Lukashenko earlier this  year was to deter a Ukrainian counter invasion of Belarus. And rightly so, from a strategic point of view because it's likely Lukashenko's army would either switch sides or melt away and Russian resources would simply be incapable of doing much about it.

And I'm absolutely convinced that if events will unfold the way they seem to unfold, this is exactly what will happen at some point. If there's a barn in Europe that requires just a kick to completely collapse, it is Belarus.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Huba

[RandomCommenter]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

And I'm absolutely convinced that if events will unfold the way they seem to unfold, this is exactly what will happen at some point. If there's a barn in Europe that requires just a kick to fall down, it is Belarus.

Careful

This is exactly what Putin thought about Ukraine in early February.

People tend to react in unpredictable ways when their countries are invaded.

Edited October 6, 2022 by RandomCommenter

[kraze]

29 minutes ago, Artkin said:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-belarus-border-war-russia-/32066770.html

In this video they have mixed opinions. The commander of the Northern Operational Group doesnt think so, but it was noted in the video that Belarus is building up rail and airport transportation infrastructure

at this point in time Belarus "army" will simply get massacred once it crosses the border. They lack numbers (they can commit 20k at most, their whole standing army is 60k), don't have russians anywhere near like it was back in February and in a much much worse shape than russians are. If russians thought that gluing western tech to soviet tanks made them the top army and did just that - Belarus never left the '70s.

Sure if they decide to go full in - they will be able to kill some of ours, but Belarus will cease having any army in a month (and who will be protecting their leader then?). Russians committed about 60k troops for their initial push on Kyiv when we didn't have defense lines in the north and those were their most elite.

Furthermore you have to remember that HIMARS-striking Belarus is being held back only by AFU's wish, US absolutely doesn't mind every Belarus military object being smashed if there's a need, unlike when it comes to Russia.

Edited October 6, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

Careful

 

This is exactly what Putin thought about Ukraine in early February.

The difference between the two is that there's a very legitimate opposition against Lukashenka, both internal (thousands of people protesting after last false elections that almost ended in colour revolution) and external. There was frigging train sabotage going on during the initial stages of the war.
Luka only hangs to power thanks to his police/ special services enforcers, and help from Putin. Army is an unknown, but clearly not willing to die for him in Ukraine. Would they defend him against thousands of armed to the teeth, NATO trained veterans of the Ukrainian war? Police ans special services won't help one bit against them. And there won't be popular resistance, if anything the other way around, especially in bigger cities. Maybe if army remained completely loyal and drove the tanks out of hangars, then perhaps he has a chance, but I wouldn't take this bet if I was him and just run away to Moscow like Yanukovych.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

 

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Perhaps a "how to" promotional video for the program. Odd a lone AFV appears around a corner into a perfect ambush. But I would not be surprised if it's an actual surrender which would be great.

I also think this is "promo-video" (BMP hasn't' any tactical signs, numbers, own name etc). But this is not "BMP appears,,, into perfect ambush". When Russian soldier dicedes to surrender this mostly doesn't happen spontaneously. Russian communicates either with special SBU line or with opposing UKR units. Latter specify rendezvous point to him and what he must do and how to bevave himself. To this point send a cover group, - there were enough incidents when Russians made a trap for several UKR soldiers, which come to take surrendering. So this video reflects completely real routine of surrendering - Russians got order to arrive in point X, when the group aways for them. 

[akd]

"We will chase terrorists everywhere. If in an airport, then in the airport. So if we find them in the toilet, pardon my French, we'll rub them out in the ****ter. And that's it, case closed." - Vladimir Putin

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

at this point in time Belarus "army" will simply get massacred once it crosses the border. They lack numbers (they can commit 20k at most, their whole standing army is 60k), don't have russians anywhere near like it was back in February and in a much much worse shape than russians are. If russians thought that gluing western tech to soviet tanks made them the top army and did just that - Belarus never left the '70s.

Sure if they decide to go full in - they will be able to kill some of ours, but Belarus will cease having any army in a month.

Furthermore you have to remember that HIMARS-striking Belarus is being held back only by AFU's wish, US absolutely doesn't mind every Belarus military object being smashed if there's a need, unlike when it comes to Russia.

For sure. The Belarussian military is something like a corps in strength last I remember. It's really not much. If the forces were committed in February they would have been effective. Now, they will come across battle hardened veterans who have been rotated to the rear. After being stopped by TD, of course. 

I don't see it as likely either, everyone knows what would happen lol. 

In the Tpyca video it was noted that Belarus has 7 BTG on the border already. We have seen a lot more than 7 BTG's get wiped off the map so far. More like 70. 

[kraze]

Just now, Artkin said:

For sure. The Belarussian military is something like a corps in strength last I remember. It's really not much. If the forces were committed in February they would have been effective. Now, they will come across battle hardened veterans who have been rotated to the rear. After being stopped by TD, of course. 

I don't see it as likely either, everyone knows what would happen lol. 

In the Tpyca video it was noted that Belarus has 7 BTG on the border already. We have seen a lot more than 7 BTG's get wiped off the map so far. More like 70. 

I think Belarus will keep playing the role of simply tying down our forces in the north and for that they will be making statements a la "we are going to attack any day now" while keeping their troops near the border without ever crossing it. In fact that's been their modus operandi for the past 6 months.

After all Lukashenko stayed in power longer than putin (28 years now) and he didn't need any "small victorious wars" to make his people love him (and belarussians do love him, have no illusions about that), just enough to keep his throne secure.

[Artkin]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

This could be a reason pushing through the Zaporizhzhia axis, the Crimean bridge is about 150-200 KM from the nearest shore. Russia already has a very limited air and sea lift capability.

"As noted earlier, civilian or nonmilitary government assets can help compensate for a lack of organic military lift capacity. Civil transportation and state mobilization assets certainly support deployability."

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2563.html

Edited October 6, 2022 by Artkin

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Purportedly a Ukrainian advance using HMMWVs in the Kherson region demonstrating a "dagger" attack. They are certainly using live ammo.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwowrw/breakthrough_of_the_front_in_the_kherson_region_a/

 

Squad leader scolds turret gunner becasuse he dosn't shot. He was making several short bursts and claimed MG is perioodicaly jamming. When HMMWW drives away, commander again scolds gunner in order he shot at treeplant    

[Probus]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

You mean Dark Beyond the Stars by Frank Robinson?  I loooooved that book when I read it 30 years ago.  And now I see it's not even available on kindle.  Dangit, was great book.

It's on Audible.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel, Lenar Yenikeyev, artillery chief of 4th military base (Southern Osetia, occupied part of Georgia) of 58th CAA of Suthern military district. Got lost on 2nd of October likely in Kherson oblast

Major Sergey Popov, deputy commander of Rosgvardiya operative purpose battalion. Unknown unit of Northern-Caucasin district of Rosgvardiya. Got lost on 25th Sep in Davydiv Brid, Kherson oblast