How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

HMMWV armor saves the crew from fragments of a tank shot

[Huba]

It really sounds like preparing ground for a proper civil war:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I rely on that channel quite a bit for updates, so curious to hear your grievance with it if only for a few sentences.

Pulls out conclusion out of his hat based on very little. Example in the spring concluded that Germany and France are going to let up on their support based on body language in a photoshoot. And oh god the economic analysis. If he is right the western economy will fail and the main economic models don't work.

Especially in his strategic level commentary, but also in tactical level he makes a lot of baseless conclusions. Resent example concluding Harkiv attack run out of steam weeks ago and Kherson op failed already many many times.

He shows the front rumors well, but any analysis or future predictions are just wild, and made with such confidence.

Also again the world economic predictions. Oh, god

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

The only reason they didn’t veto the UN forces in Korea, was because the resolution was presented and voted on after the Soviet Ambassador had left the room for some reason. The Soviet or Russian Ambassador has never let that occur again. I suspect the Ambassador has been told that he is to soil himself rather than ever leave the room again.

No,  more than that. Russia made the mistake of boycotting in protest,  attempting to discredit or politically weaken the UNSC. But the UNSC kept working and voted without them.  Naturally no one has ever made that mistake again,  which is kinda a good thing,  i.e.  Tantrums get you nothing and we're still going to do what you don't want us to do. 

From wiki,  but also what I grew up learning:

"The resolution passed since the Soviet Union was boycotting the UN for recognising Republic of China as China.^[2]" 

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Kinophile

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, acrashb said:

It can be difficult to keep up with the volume of information:

 

Thanks, I did see the post with that tweet actually, but was not sure if the source was credible. Is the any generally reliable organisation or website doing the tally of captures? I see various numbers thrown around by anonymous profiles on Twitter, Youtube, etc.

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Luhansk and Kherson by the weekend? When do we think AFU finally take a swing for Melitipol? It really does look ever more like a general collapse.

I've heard HIMARS are doing untold damage. 18 more are on the way although not immediatelly. 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Colonel Vitaliy Sukuyev, commander of 108th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division (mountain) Southern Military District. Data of death unnknown. 7th division is on Kherson direction in Snihurivka area

 

[Haiduk]

UKR hit repeater mast in Kreminna, no TV and cellphone communication. Recently the same strike at repater antenna was in Novoaydar sevaral days ago

 

 

[pavel.k]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR hit repeater mast in Kreminna, no TV and cellphone communication. Recently the same strike at repater antenna was in Novoaydar sevaral days ago

 

 

Murz was talking about Russians communication largely dependent on civilian infrastructure if i remember well?

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Murz was talking about Russians communication largely dependent on civilian infrastructure if i remember well?

Some types, not all

[akd]

45 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Im dying to see snowmobile mounted SOF raiding RUS DIV HQs... 

Shiba Inu-drawn dogsleds!

[OldSarge]

https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-army/2022/10/03/us-may-establish-new-command-in-germany-to-arm-ukraine-report/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dfn-rss-zap

I didn't see this posted here, a bit of things happening behind the curtains - maybe, it still hasn't been finalized. The U.S. is looking to standup a new command within EUCOM to oversee the equipping and training of UA troops. Apparently, this also includes making facilities like those at either Grafenwoehr or Hohenfels available for their training missions.

The proposed command would be located in Wiesbaden where the International Donor Coordination Center, that coordinates the donations from over 40 nations, has already relocated from Stuttgart.  Looks like this will be a long term effort.

[acrashb]

34 minutes ago, Huba said:

It really sounds like preparing ground for a proper civil war:

I keep saying that Putin is still a rational actor, but letting the regions buy their own gear is edging towards irrational.  At best, it is a "win now, pay later" bet that he is likely to lose.

32 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Thanks, I did see the post with that tweet actually, but was not sure if the source was credible. Is the any generally reliable organisation or website doing the tally of captures? I see various numbers thrown around by anonymous profiles on Twitter, Youtube, etc.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Oryx lists "captured" - for RA MBTs, 420 as of now.

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

The proposed command would be located in Wiesbaden where the International Donor Coordination Center, that coordinates the donations from over 40 nations, has already relocated from Stuttgart.  Looks like this will be a long term effort.

I'm feeling the urge to listen to the Stones "Time is on my side."

[kevinkin]

Immediate future for the front is predicted to be a grind toward eventual reconquest of Ukraine:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/09/30/uks-radakin-sees-grinding-conflict-skirmish-opportunities-in-ukraine/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/10/03/russian-forces-poised-for-major-defeat-in-kherson-says-dod-official/

Would not rule out a disinformation campaign and Ukraine will be fully liberated sooner than what is being floated. The old under promise and over deliver might explain this. 

[Haiduk]

73rd Maritime SpecOps Center in Kherson oblast (this is naval unit under SOF Command)

In some liberated village...

Near Russian T-62 during night raid...

Also during night raid

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Immediate future for the front is predicted to be a grind toward eventual reconquest of Ukraine:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/09/30/uks-radakin-sees-grinding-conflict-skirmish-opportunities-in-ukraine/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/10/03/russian-forces-poised-for-major-defeat-in-kherson-says-dod-official/

Would not rule out a disinformation campaign and Ukraine will be fully liberated sooner than what is being floated. The old under promise and over deliver might explain this. 

The brilliant info op a  few weeks ago about Ukraine only being able to attack in Kherson would imply that the DOD public statements are whatever the SBU wants them to be, at least about Ukrainian prospects and intentions. The Russians swallowed the whole fishing rod on that one.

[sburke]

And when I thought my impression of Zelensky couldn't get any better.

Quote

 

Seemingly in response to the tweets, Zelensky tweeted his own poll on Monday evening, writing "Which @elonmusk do you like more?" with the options "one who supports Ukraine" and "one who supports Russia."

The adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky questioned Musk's tweets on Monday evening, writing "Are you trying to legitimize pseudo-referendums that took place at gunpoint under conditions of persecution, mass executions and torture? Bad path."

Musk has made viral tweets about the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the past, including one in which he challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin to a duel over Ukraine.

 

Elon Musk, Zelensky get into Twitter squabble over Russian annexation (msn.com)

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[kevinkin]

Recent Poll on Elon Musk:

Young Aspiring Cadet 0%

Space Cadet 100% 

[Homo_Ferricus]

51 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Pulls out conclusion out of his hat based on very little. Example in the spring concluded that Germany and France are going to let up on their support based on body language in a photoshoot. And oh god the economic analysis. If he is right the western economy will fail and the main economic models don't work.

Especially in his strategic level commentary, but also in tactical level he makes a lot of baseless conclusions. Resent example concluding Harkiv attack run out of steam weeks ago and Kherson op failed already many many times.

He shows the front rumors well, but any analysis or future predictions are just wild, and made with such confidence.

Also again the world economic predictions. Oh, god

I agree that he has a bit of "sky is falling" catastrophism at times, though I haven't heard any economic speculations that were totally baseless, yet. Admittedly I don't always listen to his "strategic analysis" and sometimes go straight to the rundown at the front. 

I do think his more pessimistic viewpoint can be a decent counterbalance for some of the overconfidence and rah-rah we're winning perspectives. If only to highlight some areas of trouble that perhaps aren't being discussed in the super-optimistic sources.

Regarding Kharkiv running out of steam--I hadn't heard him discuss things that way; he seemed to take the more "operational pause" angle if I'm not mistaken. And just last night he stated what I heard him say many times--that Kherson was doomed to fall and it was a matter of time. I don't think he's ever said that the op has failed, perhaps that certain advances stalled (which they had).

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

All military units, which constantly deployed outside Russia, named "military base":

- 4th military base. Southern Osetia (occupied part of Georgia)

- 7th military base. Abkhazia (occupied part of Georgia)

- 102nd military base. Armenia

- 201st military base. Tajikistan

- Operative Group of Russian Troops in Pridnestrovian /Transnistrian/ region of Moldova Republic 

As akd said each "military base" is equal to usual motor-rifle brigade, except troops in Transnistria (2 motor-rifle batatlions + control battalion)

Super helpful, thanks.

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, mosuri said:

Well, true. And the shorter the potential flight time, the more stressful the decision whether to react or not if you're unsure your readings are correct or not, so there is a destabilizing element in that.

Going back to my previous post which mentioned the US withdrawal from the IRBM treaty, this right here was the entire reason for the treaty in the first place. The extremely short flight time of IRBMs to Moscow or European capitals required instantaneous decision making, which makes the weapons a destabilizing factor. IT was a good idea to eliminate them, and now we are back, with Russia with nuclear capable IRBMs and the US discussing nuclear warhead cruise missiles. Bad ideas all.

Dave

[Huba]

Mateusz Lachowski is a very esteemed Polish war correspondent, who for example was in Balaklyia and Izyum a day after liberation. In his tweet he says that according to 3 of his sources, the entire Kharkiv oblast is already under UA control. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

Just take a couple minutes and think about this.  The existing Russian officer corp has been shredded over the past 8 months.  We cn see that periodically where junior officers are leading larger combat formations because there are no higher-ranking officers left.  The training forces have already been thrown into combat so there isn't anyone left to train these guys much less their officers.  So this mobilized mob is going to be tossed in either as ineffective formations or penny packeted to units as complete untrained strangers.  How long do you think they will last in combat?

Just read that Russia is graduating it's current batch of officer candidates 1 year early.  This means they will be 2 years behind in fully qualified officers.  Which, by Russian standards, means they are good enough to fake paperwork for all the winter uniforms they just stole.

Steve