dan/california Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Luhansk and Kherson by the weekend? When do we think AFU finally take a swing for Melitipol? It really does look ever more like a general collapse. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukrainian-troops-continue-offensive-claim-new-gains/2022/10/03/25b6ea0e-42f9-11ed-be17-89cbe6b8c0a5_story.html Wouldn't have believed I would be reading this couple years back: Russian MoD stating Ukraine broke though their lines with superior tanks forces. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 The War in Ukraine YouTube channel says: Quote War in Ukraine 50 minutes ago UPDATE: Ukrainian advance to Beryslav/Nova Kakhovka area has been stopped for now by 234th regiment of 76th airborne division that was brought to area near Dudchany. Who controls Dudchany is unclear at the moment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Just now, cesmonkey said: The War in Ukraine YouTube channel says: The news by romanov_92 I posted is from 15 minutes ago. Given the news about causeway being blown up by Russians it would make sense that they withdrew from the town itself, but hold the southern side of the bay. 8 minutes ago, dan/california said: Luhansk and Kherson by the weekend? When do we think AFU finally take a swing for Melitipol? It really does look ever more like a general collapse. If UA manages to keep the tempo, then perhaps recon groups at Starobilsk? I wouldn't take that bet For Kherson I think it's hard to really say at this point, but if RU run away/ are cut off in the northern salient, then.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: The War in Ukraine YouTube channel says: "The War in Ukraine YouTube channel" is totally useless. I don't want to get too wound up so I will not get in to it more... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acrashb Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) 44 minutes ago, dan/california said: Good thread. According to Oryx, UA has lost 274 MBTs. So they're coming out ahead, which is stunning (or would have been thought so in the first few weeks). Edited October 3, 2022 by acrashb 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sross112 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said: Here is the newest trend in Western idiots being idiots. LOL, best diplomatic response yet!! Andrij Melnyk is the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, so it is an official statement!! edit: Sorry for the bad language, couldn't edit but thought it was appropriate. Edited October 3, 2022 by sross112 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukrainian-troops-continue-offensive-claim-new-gains/2022/10/03/25b6ea0e-42f9-11ed-be17-89cbe6b8c0a5_story.html Wouldn't have believed I would be reading this couple years back: Russian MoD stating Ukraine broke though their lines with superior tanks forces. Kind of funny when you consider how many of those tanks were made in Russia. I don't know if we have credible estimates of how many tanks Ukraine captured so far, but it's a lot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Interesting little article. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/03/we-cannot-win-russias-military-veterans-opposing-the-ukraine-war-a78876 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, sross112 said: LOL, best diplomatic response yet!! Andrij Melnyk is the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, so it is an official statement!! edit: Sorry for the bad language, couldn't edit but thought it was appropriate. I am sure it was far more diplomatic than he wanted to say. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 34 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said: Here is the newest trend in Western idiots being idiots. but no, he's a Jon Galt. He is an ubermenshen extraordinaire! Because he knows some things he must clearly know all things and be a super genius. just look at his brilliant Twitter escapade. He's infallible! We should definitely let him take the lead on giving away Ukrainian territory. Next maybe he can give back India to the british, which was part of british empire until britain mistakenly gave it away. Crimea might be negotiable at some point, but there's certainly no reason for UKR to start talking with that. Putin is a serial mass murderer and kidnapper of children. That's where things should start. On a more serious note, thanks to the very well informed posts about winter survival for troops. Well done. And to Dan/CA's Svatove collapse, I think UKR will declare Svatove taken on Sunday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, sross112 said: LOL, best diplomatic response yet!! Andrij Melnyk is the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, so it is an official statement!! He is already former ambassador. But he is right. Many our officials already commented his ****posts in twitter. I have three versions of his posts: - he really scared by the threat of global nuclear war and proposes "peace for any coast" - account was hacked - typical Mask joke - Tesla actions already fell on 23 %. Now he can buy it more cheaper ) - Rogozin has bit him Edited October 3, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Haiduk said: He is already former ambassador. But he is right. Many our officials already commented his ****posts in twitter. I have three versions of his posts: - he really scared by the threat of global nuclear war and proposes "peace for any coast" - account was hacked - typical Mask joke - Tesla actions already fell on 23 %. Now he can buy it more cheaper ) - Rogozin has bit him God complex combined with disputable grasp of reality outside his niche. Missed a great opportunity to keep quiet. Edit: Also, a thread on US nuclear planning regarding Ukraine by Mark Hertling. In summary, there is a plan Also, regarding @dan/california question about Melitopol, and interesting bit of RUMINT: Edited October 3, 2022 by Huba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Omens in the sky: This "luminous submarine" (hm... or Raptor boat) was seen in Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts. There is a joke that a soul of cruiser Moskva risen from the sea %) The game of clouds and sunlight formed a portray of man very similar like Taras Shevchenko, famous UKR poet, who woke up again national spirit in 19th century 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 That would be JUUUUST outside of mortar range of the dam. It also might allow direct observation of the dam from a tall spot up river. There would never be another supply truck. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Artkin said: Oh man, it's one thing hitting a trail when it's all powder and the temps never get above 32. When you're in that inbetween, finding the right way to clothe yourself just from your boots up ALONE is very difficult. Don't even get me started on footwear! You will sweat, it will freeze, and you will be miserable. There's little to no avoiding it unless you're truly experienced, and can handle being "comfortably cold" all day long. Given that the RU army has lost nearly 1/4 of it's initial force, they most likely lack cadre who are experienced enough to know what to do in these mixed conditions. One week of training Mobilik's wont even prepare them for sub-freezing temps. I hadn't mentioned the mud, but yeah. Gives me WW1 trench warfare thoughts in spite of how this war has been fought - from obstacle to obstacle. It now makes sense to me why 80th arctic mrb was deployed to the Kherson rear. When the winter hits, this will be the worst area to be in, and they will be the best trained troops for the mission. The 80th should already be used to operating in wide open, windy, snow-blind conditions. I totally agree. The elements here will be no better than they were in the winter of 1942. Especially when you're sending troops into battle with the same 80 year old winter kit. Overcoats? Come on. That's fine for static defense, but on active missions an overcoat will be nothing but a hassle to operate in. This is not a modernized army. I do think the Zaphorizia front is lost for the Russians. Ukraine is able to bombard them from across the Dniepr river with their newly-found gains in the Kherson direction. I would argue the Zaphorizia and Kherson front are nothing but a problem for the Russians. They are operating with too low of numbers per km of frontage as it is. They need to suck it up and reduce their lines. The narrow territory they have (Low surface area with a large perimeter length) is completely unfavorable for the type of war they are fighting, as this opens up many possibilities to have advanced munitions to strike deep into any part of the Russian rear. Besides the whole not having enough men or equipment on the front in the first place. Im dying to see snowmobile mounted SOF raiding RUS DIV HQs... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artkin Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 The Kherson front reminds me of the Moscow offensive. We have the Russians (Germans) being halted right before Mykolaiv (Moscow) which would have served as a great defensive and jumping off position. Now comes the winter and a counteroffensive by a well equipped reserve which will wipe the Russians off the face of the map. The Russians are at their furthest point West (Besides the Kiev gambit). Their willingness to hold onto this unsustainable piece of land will be their downfall. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 57 minutes ago, Huba said: The news by romanov_92 I posted is from 15 minutes ago. Given the news about causeway being blown up by Russians it would make sense that they withdrew from the town itself, but hold the southern side of the bay. I'll just shamelessly quote myself, and then latest Rybar: Quote On the Berislav direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were stopped at the Dudchansky reservoir : the northern half on the other side of the watershed is controlled by Ukrainian formations. The RF Armed Forces blew up the bridge across the settlement during the withdrawal in order to prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine from continuing the offensive along the Dnieper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homo_Ferricus Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 59 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: "The War in Ukraine YouTube channel" is totally useless. I don't want to get too wound up so I will not get in to it more... I rely on that channel quite a bit for updates, so curious to hear your grievance with it if only for a few sentences. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artkin Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Just now, Kinophile said: Im dying to see snowmobile mounted SOF raiding RUS DIV HQs... That is actually pretty feasible isn't it? It would be nice if they were battery powered, but I know the cold will make the battery less powerful so less range. A winter wagon with an insulated battery is a worthwhile solution to look into. They aren't going to be chased down, maybe by drones, but the weather won't always be great for them either. They would be perfect for forest ops. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said: Nope! A causeway is a passage from a mainland to an island. The island and the causeway are completely surrounded by water. An earthen dam is a dam made of earth, vs an earth-core dam or a concrete dam. Earthen dam is just more descriptive of the dam. Not exactly or only. A Causeway can be on top of a dam or dyke. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acrashb Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 49 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: I don't know if we have credible estimates of how many tanks Ukraine captured so far, but it's a lot. It can be difficult to keep up with the volume of information: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) 22 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Ah, so in this case the "base" is not separate from the unit as is usually the case? Interesting. I thought the units always had designations separate from the bases. Thanks! Steve All military units, which constantly deployed outside Russia, named "military base": - 4th military base. Southern Osetia (occupied part of Georgia) - 7th military base. Abkhazia (occupied part of Georgia) - 102nd military base. Armenia - 201st military base. Tajikistan - Operative Group of Russian Troops in Pridnestrovian /Transnistrian/ region of Moldova Republic As akd said each "military base" is equal to usual motor-rifle brigade, except troops in Transnistria (2 motor-rifle batatlions + control battalion) Edited October 3, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Jammed Mohajer-6, which was towed from the sea now on some UKR base. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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