How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Writer says war is unpredictable but he thinks Russia will just consolidate the port cities and freeze operations until Spring. A very unappetizing view of the next 6 months that has to be averted. The West might just have to treat Ukraine as a full NATO partner to end that county's bloodshed. 

"That’s been the status quo in Syria for the better part of a decade; and at this juncture, the Kharkiv counteroffensive notwithstanding, it seems to be the most likely future for Ukraine, too: a war that never ends, in an unlucky country caught between two(?) past-their-prime superpowers, neither of which has the ability to win outright, nor the humanity to negotiate a compromise, with the result that many thousands die in vain."

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/19/putting-ukrainian-battle-successes-into-cold-hard-perspective/

Edited September 20, 2022 by kevinkin

[Calamine Waffles]

  

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

"...caught between two(?) past-their-prime superpowers, neither of which has the ability to win outright, nor the humanity to negotiate a compromise, with the result that many thousands die in vain."

lol, ok buddy

 

[MikeyD]

It looks like Slovenia just emptied out its storage sheds. They've had their M-55s up for sale for years with no takers. This is the military equivalent of handing over old clothing from your closet to Goodwill rather than throwing them away. Still, its better than nothing.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Writer say war is unpredictable but he think Russia will just consolidate the port cities and freeze operations until Spring. A very unappetizing view of the next 6 months that has to be averted. The West might just have to treat Ukraine as a full NATO partner to end that county's bloodshed. 

That’s been the status quo in Syria for the better part of a decade; and at this juncture, the Kharkiv counteroffensive notwithstanding, it seems to be the most likely future for Ukraine, too: a war that never ends, in an unlucky country caught between two(?) past-their-prime superpowers, neither of which has the ability to win outright, nor the humanity to negotiate a compromise, with the result that many thousands die in vain."

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/19/putting-ukrainian-battle-successes-into-cold-hard-perspective/

The Seth Harp who hasn't the foggiest idea what American China policy is? That guy? 

Sorry, but Harp is a bit of a clown. He seems to not understand what actually happened in Kharkiv, ditto what's currently happening in Kherson and I'm less than impressed with the realtor style list of 'comps' he used (Syria? Iraq? WTF?) to try and support his point. That's not analysis, that's just "my gut says X and I'm going to fill in reasons why it feels that way". And somehow all the way through he manages not to mention sanctions or manpower issues suffered  by Russia. 

Absurd, bad and worse than useless.

[Calamine Waffles]

You are all familiar with the Ukrainian hybrid T-64-55 project?


 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

It looks like Slovenia just emptied out its storage sheds. They've had their M-55s up for sale for years with no takers. This is the military equivalent of handing over old clothing from your closet to Goodwill rather than throwing them away. Still, its better than nothing.

As QRF in some secondary direction, perhaps attached to TD brigade or two, might make some sense. I bet there are people who know how to operate and service T-55 there.

But this hardly is a winning approach

[chuckdyke]

They start to think in the old German assault gun concept? Obsolete Mark III became the Stug III. Leo 1 with a casemate upper structure with laminated armor with the new 130 mm gun able to launch drones for recon from it? Could be a new lease of life.  

[Vanir Ausf B]

Sounds more like an excuse than a reason. Ukraine has already been given systems they can't maintain themselves.

 

[Artkin]

??? Ukraine already produced top of the line tanks for both the Soviet Union and themselves. I thought tank manufacturing plants were struck early on in the war? No word on economic aid or anything factory orientated? That's either not the full reason or our politicians are pretty stupid. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

 

"That’s been the status quo in Syria for the better part of a decade; and at this juncture, the Kharkiv counteroffensive notwithstanding, it seems to be the most likely future for Ukraine, too: a war that never ends, in an unlucky country caught between two(?) past-their-prime superpowers, neither of which has the ability to win outright, nor the humanity to negotiate a compromise, with the result that many thousands die in vain."

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/19/putting-ukrainian-battle-successes-into-cold-hard-perspective/

Hokay. 

1. Syria is a civil war,  waged by its autocratic government against its own people. 

2. Ukraine is a war of survival, led by the democratic government against an invading fascist regime, and with the overwhelming support of its own people. 

3. The Kharkiv op is not an aberration, it is the harbinger of worse to come. Yup Kharkiv isn't war winning. But it sure as heck is an inflection point. The war is not going to stay the same -  Russia no longer has the momentum, men, political coherence or operational adaptability to determine the course of events. 

4. Ukraine already went through an interminable, never ending warfare since 2014 -  in fact this is still that war but its now in the decisive phase, and its very much the Ukrainians making the decisions that matter. 

5. Two "past their prime" superpowers? Ehhh... Wut. 

Ok, Russia is one. Check. 

Who's the other, exactly? The one with the amazing weapons and wherewithal to send them halfway across the world? The one with the insanely accurate and immediate  ISR capabilities?  The one actively engaged in a long term project to build a moon base?  

Or maybe the other one,  which however rancorous its decision process has managed to provide billions of dollars in direct aid to Ukraine,  absorbed 5,000,000 refugees in 3 months without raising a sweat,  has weathered all of Russia's  gas threats and is set to get through the winter regardless, has vastly greater military power than Russia and,  as part of an alliance with that other power,  admitted two new,  heavily armed and highly  strategically placed nations, and which the prospect of Ukraine joining it was what set off this whole awful mess in the first place? 

That author is a political hack,  not an original  thought in his head and, at bedrock level,  a twit. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Kinophile

[BlackMoria]

23 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Sounds more like an excuse than a reason. Ukraine has already been given systems they can't maintain themselves.

 

Well, how about some country provide them with modern armor so they can show the ability to maintain them, unless the (I think) sole T-90 they captured qualifies.

[LongLeftFlank]

49 minutes ago, Huba said:

As QRF in some secondary direction, perhaps attached to TD brigade or two, might make some sense. I bet there are people who know how to operate and service T-55 there.

But this hardly is a winning approach

They'd work fine to mop up Transnistria with. Isn't it about time that imperial hangover got cleaned out? More prisoners to trade as well, and yet another black eye for the Tsar.

Then hand it back to Moldova (and Romania), with compliments.

[kevinkin]

12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

never ending warfare

That's the beef I have with Harp and others with his view - they assume Ukraine's offensive has to halt for the coming weather. The objective is to kill Russians either on the move or in static positions produced by what some would call a stalemate. No, Russians can be eliminated in static positions too. The main thing is to keep the momentum and Russia off balanced no matter how they decide to remain in Ukraine. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by kevinkin

[LongLeftFlank]

Haven't heard much from Ukraine's 'Hemingway' Yuriy Butusov lately.

He seems alive and well in spite of his feats of derring-do, but I assume he mainly publishes and tweets in his native tongue.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

20 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hokay. 

1. Syria is a civil war,  waged by its autocratic government against its own people. 

2. Ukraine is a war of survival, led by the democratic government against an invading fascist regime, and with the overwhelming support of its own people. 

3. The Kharkiv op is not an aberration, it is the harbinger of worse to come. Yup Kharkiv isn't war winning. But it sure as heck is an inflection point. The war is not going to stay the same -  Russia no longer has the momentum, men, political coherence or operational adaptability to determine the course of events. 

4. Ukraine already went through an interminable, never ending warfare since 2014 -  in fact this is still that war but its now in the decisive phase, and its very much the Ukrainians making the decisions that matter. 

5. Two "past their prime" superpowers? Ehhh... Wut. 

Ok, Russia is one. Check. 

Who's the other, exactly? The one with the amazing weapons and wherewithal to send them halfway across the world? The one with the insanely accurate and immediate  ISR capabilities?  The one actively engaged in a long term project to build a moon base?  

Or maybe the other one,  which however rancorous its decision process has managed to provide billions of dollars in direct aid to Ukraine,  absorbed 5,000,000 refugees in 3 months without raising a sweat,  has weathered all of Russia's  gas threats and is set to get through the winter regardless, has vastly greater military power than Russia and,  as part of an alliance with that other power,  admitted two new,  heavily armed and highly  strategically placed nations, and which the prospect of Ukraine joining it was what set off this whole awful mess in the first place? 

That author is a political hack,  not an original  thought in his head and, at bedrock level,  a twit. 

Whenever I hear anyone compare the situation in Ukraine to Syria I just completely lose interest in what they have to say. Besides some superficial comparisons like both the wars in Ukraine and Syria have a lot of explosions and automatic weapons fire the situations are just completely different.

 

 

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Whenever I hear anyone compare the situation in Ukraine to Syria I just completely lose interest in what they have to say. Besides some superficial comparisons like both the wars in Ukraine and Syria have a lot of explosions and automatic weapons fire the situations are just completely different.

 

 

well in both cases you have had Russian PMCs get hammered by US weapons... there is that.  

How That Massive Battle Between US Troops And Russian Mercenaries In Syria Went Down - Task & Purpose (taskandpurpose.com)

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  When do they bring in Khrushchev (Bob Hoskins version)?

 

2. Keyholin'

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

So, RU is already building defenses around Svatove

According to Mashkovets RU - builds defenses in Kuzemka-Nyzhia Duvanka-Svatove and Miluvatka - Krasnorechensk. Also holds Rubtsi-Lyman-Kremenna line.

Everybody expect next phase of UKR offensive to be from area of Dvorichne toward Troistske-Poskrovske (with possible second strike to Kreminna). It will allow to cut the railroad (black line) making Svatove much less useful for RU. If successful RU most likely will abandon Svatove and recoil east worsening supply situation at Lisichansk and Severodonetsk creating conditions for their recapture. 

This is what I believe UKR current plans. 

Fantastic stuff as always mate, cheers! You have been a real gift to this board!

I like looking at HeliosRunner's hi-res topos in parallel with your sat imagery.

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1571567347869286401

 

[FancyCat]

The only good thing about that statement is that it is a glacial pace movement from before. As others have stated, the West looks intent on giving Russia as much outs as possible before giving Ukraine the means to knock the Russians back into Russia.

The more Putin doubles down, the more Russia just keeps firing off missiles into civilian targets, the more Zelensky gets to shout at Biden and co that Russia has lost its mind and will not leave without being forced out and eventually the West will have to "escalate" in response.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

That's the beef I have with Harp and others with his view - they assume Ukraine's offensive has to halt for the coming weather. The objective is to kill Russians either on the move or in static positions produced by what some would call a stalemate. No, Russians can be eliminated in static positions too. The main thing is to keep the momentum and Russia off balanced no matter how they decide to remain in Ukraine. 

Yeah, and Harp's just advancing the already long discredited notion that Russia can fight an endless war and Ukraine can't.  It's absolutely the other way around, as we've discussed more times than I can count.  Ukraine could just sit on their butts for the next 6 months (including in Kherson) and Russia would still be unable to keep this war going much longer.

Steve

[sross112]

The longer this war goes on and the more tragedy and horror we see perpetrated by Russia the more I see that the references to the Lord of the Rings actually fits. We have talked about a lot of the possible endings for Russia and Putin but I think them becoming a pariah state like N. Korea closed off from the west is a very likely outcome. I don't see them totally failing, maybe some territories breaking away but the core remaining. What I really don't see them doing is changing anything in a meaningful way. I think that they will cry and sulk and bark and threaten and try to continue doing evil from behind their closed borders. They will continue the propaganda to their people and everything negative will be the fault of the west. 

They will truly be Mordor to our world.  

[Battlefront.com]

14 hours ago, Grigb said:

There is another interesting Rybar post. In my previous comment I said Rybar is Prigozhin asset. Now I will show why.

Rybar likes to criticize RU military but let's check what he says about clown-zeks:

 Sounds nice for RU - RU arty is pounding UKR position in front of Wagnerites. Except reality is different - it is Wagnerites defeat and Rybar explicitly hides it (unlike with RU military Oskil defense issue).

It is easy to see the place of hits with both videos and provided coordinates - it is Lumumba street buildings that Wagnerites captured at the beginning of August (right hand side of the map next to road to Pokrovske):

So, UKR counter attacked and captured positions among these buildings.

But here is more - Rybar claims the distance between UKR positions and Wagnerites is 600 meters. Let's put this on the map:

Well, it seems UKR troops kicked Wagnerites out of town.  

But wait - there is still more to it. There is something interesting at the distance of 600 meter - outskirts of Dacha cooperative.

It looks like that Wagnerites probing attack toward Dacha Cooperative wasn't probing attack but rather retreat. Under threat of UKR counterattack Wagnerites retreated to most sensible position - Dacha Cooperative full of cottages to hide in and lots of tree lines for cover.

And propagandist Rybar using mix of facts and fiction converted Wagnerites retreat into not so glorious but still good enough advance.

Even RU Wagnerites are retreating now. The internal state of RU forces is worse than we think. Well, yes, I am being Captain Obvious here because we basically already know it.

[UPDATE] I want to add that apart from RU situation I think there was (or is) dramatic increase of UKR power at the front line. Just a month ago we talked about UKR fightint retreat and now Wagnerites were simply kicked out without much fuss. 

Interesting timing.  I just concluded a long and very detailed conversation with someone that has very deep knowledge of this war.  I mentioned your theory that Rybar is a Prigozhin asset and he paused, processed it, and said that something that's bothered him for a long time now makes sense.  Let's see if you agree.

We have this instance of Rybar shamelessly distorting truth to support Wagner, yet there was a feud between Rybar and GreyZone about Kherson.  Rybar saying that Russia's has things well under control and GreyZone mocking him as a propagandist.  This something you've run into?

He was trying to make sense of the apparent split personalities of both.  But now it makes sense to him, and to me I think.  Rybar and GreyZone are working together to discredit the Russian MoD to benefit Putin in his whatever power games the two are engaging in.  In this case Rybar is building up the expectations of Russian defenses to enhance GreyZone's messaging that the MoD is incompetent.

What do you think?

Steve

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Haven't heard much from Ukraine's 'Hemingway' Yuriy Butusov lately.

He seems alive and well in spite of his feats of derring-do, but I assume he mainly publishes and tweets in his native tongue.

 

 

Check the youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/БутусовПлюс/videos

He's been posting clips a couple of times a day.  Auto-translate is a bit hit and miss but you can get the gist of most of what's said.

 

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Fantastic stuff as always mate, cheers! You have been a real gift to this board!

I like looking at HeliosRunner's hi-res topos in parallel with your sat imagery.

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1571567347869286401

 

Sure looks like Ukraine is getting ready to isolate Lyman from the north very soon.  If they break through either Drobysheve and Novoselivka (or at least isolate it from the south) then Lyman is effectively surrounded.  By that I mean the two routes out of the city are easily put under artillery fire while direct pressure is applied to more than half of the defensive perimeter.  Even better if Ukraine manages to break through the thin strip of forest to the southeast of Lyman itself.

This is the sort of condition that has usually led to Russians abandoning their positions.  They seem to be quite adverse to being surrounded.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

The longer this war goes on and the more tragedy and horror we see perpetrated by Russia the more I see that the references to the Lord of the Rings actually fits. We have talked about a lot of the possible endings for Russia and Putin but I think them becoming a pariah state like N. Korea closed off from the west is a very likely outcome. I don't see them totally failing, maybe some territories breaking away but the core remaining. What I really don't see them doing is changing anything in a meaningful way. I think that they will cry and sulk and bark and threaten and try to continue doing evil from behind their closed borders. They will continue the propaganda to their people and everything negative will be the fault of the west. 

They will truly be Mordor to our world.  

 

Unless you buy (and I know you don't) the  primal spittle about Russians being orcs, congenitally incapable of living in peace with real humans, I don't see this being actionable.

The Tsars, Lenin and Stalin (and Kim-il-Sung) all lived in a different era where only the very tiniest sliver of their subjects had any access to Western communications or ideas.

It was therefore possible to divide, isolate and terrorise them in the millions. They quickly found it more convenient to shut up, not ask questions and drink away their sorrows. While those habits are still sadly deeply deeply ingrained in today's Russians, it's not like those with eyes to see can't quickly find contrary views, especially the youth. Which is to say the old Russian methods of divide, terrorise and rule won't work the same way.

I just don't see even a China model of social control/conditioning/forced conformity working in today's Russia, even with high tech spyware, 'social credit' scores, public shaming/instant fines etc. Barring a paternal state with a huge amount of subsidised wealth to throw around (Saudi levels), this kind of makes an advanced society and economy virtually impossible. The educated and creative vote with their feet.

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank