How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh the thread will survive, it must until this war is over and then it needs to be archived somewhere.  Now whether some members join John Kettler in the outer-darkness is another question.

My view is that this thread is a collective analysis and assessment of the war and its conduct.  It is crowd sourced from open source intelligence and brings together a very broad set of skillsets and points of view.  I would argue that it is also one of the most objective/apolitical, thorough, and accurate exercises of this type on the internet right now.

However, our efforts must adhere to that analysis and assessment focus, we can and will drift on occasion into areas that are "less than helpful", but this must not devolve into an argument of one point of view over the other - no one can win an argument here - these are not Reddit games.  One can provide useful analysis, assessment and information, and yes, even opinions.  We are not going to solve  anything here, that is not how these things work.  All we can do is remain objective/apolitical, thorough, and accurate as we try to separate mis/dis information from reality as this thing unfolds.

An opinion, however, differs from a position.  Opinions, informed by education and experience lead to sound judgement, which is very helpful.  A position is a dogmatic and entrenched set of beliefs that very often defy reality - that is less helpful and is better served elsewhere in this big wide Internet where every position possible is out there for you to rage against or join in: 

Go nuts.

There is a standing list of topics that we will simply not solve here, nor should be waste our time trying to.  And by rolling hard into these topics all people do is generate noise, while we are looking for signal.  Nearly 1400 pages in, these flare ups happen at intervals - normally in a lull in activity in-theatre - and I suspect is more an emotional outburst as things get pent up.

Hopefully we have it all out of our systems now and may move on.

Out of likes but here's one. I never knew about bigfoot aliens 

[billbindc]

My reaction to Russian mobilization: 

“For the sake of the nation’s life, it was necessary to restore the army’s will to die.”

Alexander Kerensky on the June Offensive

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Capt. Evgeny Orlov, Deputy Commander of an Airborne Battalion (a Major’s position), 56th Guards Air-Assault Regiment, 7th Guards Air-Assault Division:

 

Maj. Dmitry Murasov, unit unknown:

 

[FancyCat]

It is very important to note, that the West has been attempting to give Russia escalatory first response. If Russia truly annexes Ukrainian territory in a desperate bid to generate domestic and international support for causing a stalemate or freezing the war, I expect the West to ramp up its support of Ukraine, not decrease it. That way, instead of having to defend against Russian accusations of ramping up the crisis, the West can express that at every point, Russia was given a chance to walk away, and instead has doubled down. 

A reminder, Putin's words at the beginning of the invasion were not to annex Ukrainian territory. 

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

It is very important to note, that the West has been attempting to give Russia escalatory first response. If Russia truly annexes Ukrainian territory in a desperate bid to generate domestic and international support for causing a stalemate or freezing the war, I expect the West to ramp up its support of Ukraine, not decrease it. That way, instead of having to defend against Russian accusations of ramping up the crisis, the West can express that at every point, Russia was given a chance to walk away, and instead has doubled down. 

A reminder, Putin's words at the beginning of the invasion were not to annex Ukrainian territory. 

Yes. An under rated aspect of this entire conflict is that the US has to keep a broad coalition together with often quite different views of the war...especially in terms of escalation and where that intersects with material support. The easiest way to manage it is to use each Russian escalation as an opportunity to broaden and heighten engagement. This event will continue that trend.

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My reaction to Russian mobilization: 

“For the sake of the nation’s life, it was necessary to restore the army’s will to die.”

Alexander Kerensky on the June Offensive

 

The army's will to die proved lacking. Lenin became Czar because he promised the units around St Petersburg they wouldn't have to fight the Germans if they backed him. He neglected to mention the fact they were committing themselves to ~ten years of a grinding, brutal civil war, and a few dozen purges for "reasons". Putin knows this, it is why he has held off on this step. His spot between the rock and the hard place is getting ever smaller. NATO/The West must be prepared to stare down his next round of no doubt louder threats. He CANNOT be allowed to pull his gonads out of the fire by waving his magical nuclear stick around, because if it works he will never stop.

[acrashb]

And in other, non-political news:
Russia removes submarines from Crimea to avoid Ukraine’s firepower, UK says – POLITICO
Kilo-class submarine - Wikipedia

Ukraine must have something that threatens shallow-water subs and gets more threatening as the front moves closer to the black sea.  I thought the only things that threatened submerged subs were other subs and ships, so either the RA expects Ukraine to soon increase it's surface fleet presence (which seems unlikely), or there is some land air launched missile that can hit a sub.
Could be one of those stealth deployments that we hear about after something goes boom, because I've not seen anything in the news.
 

[Huba]

Just now, acrashb said:

And in other, non-political news:
Russia removes submarines from Crimea to avoid Ukraine’s firepower, UK says – POLITICO
Kilo-class submarine - Wikipedia

Ukraine must have something that threatens shallow-water subs and gets more threatening as the front moves closer to the black sea.  I thought the only things that threatened submerged subs were other subs and ships, so either the RA expects Ukraine to soon increase it's surface fleet presence (which seems unlikely), or there is some land air launched missile that can hit a sub.
Could be one of those stealth deployments that we hear about after something goes boom, because I've not seen anything in the news.
 

ATACMS/ Hrim scare I think - these should be quite able to take out any ship docked in port I think. Losing aircraft is one thing, but having you fleet sunk while at anchor would be something else, there would be strokes and heart attacks all around.

[acrashb]

On 9/14/2022 at 11:14 PM, Battlefront.com said:

You have just described what we're calling "breakup", so you need to pick a date when European Russia becomes a "rump state" in order to play the game

Sure   
After mulling this over with some local politicos, I think Putin will be gone by the Ides of March 2023, plus or minus 90 days.

The Russian Federation will have broken up partially (in a way that is noticeable) by March 2026, plus or minus six months.

My stock-picking record is pretty good, as are my mid- to long-term political predictions.  We'll see in a few years about this one.

There are any number of off-ramps for both of the above things, but by observation many of those off-ramps have narrowed or closed since this all got started. Putin's and Russia's decision space is, through a combination of Ukrainian, Western, and own-goal actions, shrinking steadily.  

The current mobilization-by-stealth (which will shortly shed it's cloak) is more evidence of that.

So if I'm off on the timing, the above events have gradually - or rapidly, by the standards of geo-political timing - become more inevitable.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by acrashb

[Grigb]

I am monitoring RU oppo media Medusa for the speech. meanwhile some news:

Quote

The Dozhd [famous oppo] TV channel reported that, according to the mothers of conscripts serving in the Leningrad region, their sons are either going to be sent to the border with Ukraine, or have already been sent to the border areas of the Belgorod region.

A day earlier, the BBC Russian Service reported that conscripts of the Taman Division stationed in the Moscow region were going to be transferred to the Belgorod Region to protect the border with Ukraine.

"Kholod" at the same time writes that some conscripts have been on the border with Ukraine for two months.

 

[Billy Ringo]

I'll be watching the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg if Putin goes for mobilization.  Litmus test.

 

LInk to skynews live covering Putin's speech.  Please delete if not appropriate.

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Billy Ringo
Added link

[Maquisard manqué]

10 minutes ago, acrashb said:

And in other, non-political news:
Russia removes submarines from Crimea to avoid Ukraine’s firepower, UK says – POLITICO
Kilo-class submarine - Wikipedia

Ukraine must have something that threatens shallow-water subs and gets more threatening as the front moves closer to the black sea.  I thought the only things that threatened submerged subs were other subs and ships, so either the RA expects Ukraine to soon increase it's surface fleet presence (which seems unlikely), or there is some land air launched missile that can hit a sub.
Could be one of those stealth deployments that we hear about after something goes boom, because I've not seen anything in the news.
 

Surely it’s about the risk of the subs being hit in port?

Huba got there first.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I'll be watching the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg if Putin goes for mobilization.  Litmus test.

I do not think it would be that fast.

So far RU Channel shows only news - they talked about referendums and now some local staff.

[UPDATE] Local news are about recent death of local RU theater actor (I do not know him). He was a volunteer (not fighter). So, they are talking about how he hated Evil UKR Nazies - usual BS about drug use by UKR troops.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Grigb

[dan/california]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, so you would explain the events of c.Oct 1942 - May 1945 how, exactly?

****

As P.J. O'Rourke once said:

Getting a mass of people to labor, will-they, nil-they, toward abstract goals for the sake of people in the mass doesn't work. It can be done temporarily in dire emergencies such as last-minute decoration of the gym for the prom or during famines or when Nazis invade. Even the Soviet Union worked while Nazis were invading it. But on the morning after V-E Day, the proletariat was sloshed on the job again, Stalin was back to killing people, and the peasants were hiding their pigs. 

Stalin was a more effective war time dictator than Hitler was. He was more able to ingest real information, and turn it into rational orders to maintain himself in the seat of absolute power. Rational for Stalins UTTERLY amoral world view that what was good for Stalin was all that mattered. In Particular, after getting ~half his pre war army killed or captured in German encirclements, he realized he could not continuously interfere in the General Staffs war plans. He found some more or less competent Generals, told them to win the war or he would have them shot, and and let them be about it. He also 100% mobilized for a war economy far sooner, and far more effectively than Hitler did. It didn't hurt that his claim that the Germans were coming to kill EVERYONE was more or less true, and provably so. Hitler had this really bad habit of ANNOUNCING it, among other things.

He was not in ANY way a more moral/ less awful dictator, just a better one. The Red Army tortured, looted, raped, and mass murdered all the way from Moscow to Berlin, Ukraine very much included. Indeed the only thing that has changed is that the Russians seem to have forgotten the importance of winning battles first. Every attempt was made to massacre as many "politically unreliable" people as possible under the cover of war time conditions. Katyen Forest, and allowing the Germans to crush the Warsaw Ghetto before continuing their offensive are merely the best known examples. Ukrainian, Polish, Belorussian, and Baltic civilians were treated just as awfully as German ones. 

The addition of cocaine to the vices of the Russian elite has perhaps been detrimental to their effectiveness. I would say it has degraded their morals further, but they never had any, so that isn't really possible.

[acrashb]

1 minute ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Surely it’s about the risk of the subs being hit in port?

That was Huba's idea, and it may be correct.  

Having said that, Novorossiysk is still available - assuming it can service subs - and the range of the Kilo-class subs suggests that they could sally from there.  At about 400 km+ from the front, it seems safe enough.

 

[Cederic]

18 minutes ago, acrashb said:

I thought the only things that threatened submerged subs were other subs and ships

No, aircraft - if anything aircraft are a bigger threat.

Admittedly in the middle of an ocean the aircraft are probably based on a floating platform of some kind - we could call it a ship that carries aircraft?

But look up 'dipping sonar' and 'sonar buoys' and airdropped torpedoes. They're quite nasty if your entire defense plan consists of 'hide under water'.

 

(None of which means that the redeployment is linked to Ukrainian aerial threats; certainly Sevastopol doesn't feel a safe berth for a high value target)

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

if this thread gets closed.

I don´t think so. Maybe it needs some house cleaning...

[Grigb]

RU news are literally Two Minutes Hate now. [I stopped watching RU news dozens of years ago]

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

These are not just atrocities. This is a genocidal campaign to erase the Ukrainian state and people.

[...]

This is really well said. I wish I was this eloquent.

[Huba]

Useful link:

@Billy Ringo posted it first.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/20/world/united-nations-general-assembly

Erdogan seems to be pressuring Putin to withdraw, albeit gingerly.

[sross112]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The addition of cocaine to the vices of the Russian elite has perhaps been detrimental to their effectiveness. I would say it has degraded their morals further, but they never had any, so that isn't really possible.

There have been a lot of references in this thread to the use of cocaine by the Russian elites. Now I'm not a doctor, but I'm thinking their behavior is starting to look more like some sort of Hallucinogen:

• Seeing things that aren't there (evil UKR nazis and NATO divisions rompstomping their beloved RA)
• Not seeing things that are there (HIMARS is no big deal, just repositioning forces, gestures of goodwill)
• Transposing of senses - synesthesia (seeing their dumpster fire of an invasion and smelling roses)
• Improper Identification of self: See themselves as benevolent good guys while raping, torturing and pillaging.

I guess there could be heavy poly drug use with a tab or two of LSD backed up by some lines of coke. Would explain a lot I guess. I think @sburke may be a deadhead, so he might be able to dissect the phenomenon and give us some clarity.  

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian officer in front of a Caesar cannon on a front line in the Donbass region, June 15, 2022. ARIS MESSINIS / AFP"

* Note the chevron of 55th Artillery Brigade.

[akd]

I guess it’s time to finish off the 98th Guards Airborne Division:

 

[DesertFox]

Knock on wood if true