How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgeVuwxOkAo

Good starter for newbies (being one of them ).

Thanks, it was really interesting. Gotta give the whole channel a closer look.

[chuckdyke]

It's good fun to practice with watermelon. 

 

[JonS]

FWIW, a lot of int collection works in more or less the same way. The Other Guy(tm) doesn't want to be seen, so makes efforts to hide. But you can't hide all the things all the time, so eventually capability is revealed. A pipe, as in this example, can indeed be very hard to find, but an unused pipe is useless. Using the pipe requires a bunch of noticeable activity that is much harder to hide.

Or, consider a rifle platoon. A well dug in platoon can be very hard to find if you didn't notice them arrive. And if the guys all stay in their holes they will continue to be hard to find. But in practical terms they can't stay in their holes, and even if they could other people will need to bring them things on a regular basis - food, at least. And you can't just keep pooing in the hole you're living in.

And, even if TOG(tm) does manage to conceal all that - probably by not moving and not being resupplied - well, congratulations. That platoon has taken /itself/ out of the fight. Job done.

Edited September 5, 2022 by JonS

[JonS]

9 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

(literally, everyone came here from somewhere else, even the “[insert people here]" came from somewhere else with each wave conquering, assimilating, or exterminating the existing tribes

This literally applies to every populated place on earth. Not just the 'exceptional' US.

[asurob]

Between this and reports that Pootler is asking for neogotians ..is it too early to begin to feel some serious optimism about how things are going?

Edited September 5, 2022 by asurob

[danfrodo]

45 minutes ago, asurob said:

Between this and reports that Pootler is asking for neogotians ..is it too early to begin to feel some serious optimism about how things are going?

Is there some Putler negotiation request going on?  I have not heard about this.  'course, threatening to invade or nuke every country in europe doesn't make it easy to get one a sympathetic ear from those that would need to stop helping Urkaine.  And Biden sure aint backing down, nor it seems is US congress.  I suppose he is just desperately trying to flip over the chess table now that he's down to two pawns and a king. 

I am starting to feel optimistic though, as Aragorn has rightfully noted quite often, our optimism is typically quite premature.  But the whole eastern section of Putler's Pocket is looking very very vulnerable right now.  If the DavidyBrid salient gets wide/deep enough for artillery it'll be a turkey shoot on the supplies for the eastern section.

And on an earlier post, I am rather surprised that an 'expert' thinks fuel pipes will save the day.  Just follow the ants (fuel trucks) to & from the nest where the fuel is collected into storage/trucks.  Since we know it's on the bank somewhere there's only so may places that have to be scouted w satellite/drones.  Those sites will make some nice explosions for our viewing pleasure I am sure.  And that's only for fuel.  They need a lot more than just fuel and their artillery response already seems to be severely degraded.

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is there some Putler negotiation request going on?  I have not heard about this.  'course, threatening to invade or nuke every country in europe doesn't make it easy to get one a sympathetic ear from those that would need to stop helping Urkaine.  And Biden sure aint backing down, nor it seems is US congress.  I suppose he is just desperately trying to flip over the chess table now that he's down to two pawns and a king. 

I am starting to feel optimistic though, as Aragorn has rightfully noted quite often, our optimism is typically quite premature.  But the whole eastern section of Putler's Pocket is looking very very vulnerable right now.  If the DavidyBrid salient gets wide/deep enough for artillery it'll be a turkey shoot on the supplies for the eastern section.

We are just impatient.  While time is on Ukraine's side, every day allows the Russians to commit some new atrocity.  The fact is this war has been going Ukraine's way almost from the start.

[asurob]

26 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is there some Putler negotiation request going on?  I have not heard about this.  'course, threatening to invade or nuke every country in europe doesn't make it easy to get one a sympathetic ear from those that would need to stop helping Urkaine.  And Biden sure aint backing down, nor it seems is US congress.  I suppose he is just desperately trying to flip over the chess table now that he's down to two pawns and a king. 

I am starting to feel optimistic though, as Aragorn has rightfully noted quite often, our optimism is typically quite premature.  But the whole eastern section of Putler's Pocket is looking very very vulnerable right now.  If the DavidyBrid salient gets wide/deep enough for artillery it'll be a turkey shoot on the supplies for the eastern section.

And on an earlier post, I am rather surprised that an 'expert' thinks fuel pipes will save the day.  Just follow the ants (fuel trucks) to & from the nest where the fuel is collected into storage/trucks.  Since we know it's on the bank somewhere there's only so may places that have to be scouted w satellite/drones.  Those sites will make some nice explosions for our viewing pleasure I am sure.  And that's only for fuel.  They need a lot more than just fuel and their artillery response already seems to be severely degraded.

I think it was reddit where I read Putin was looking to start some negotiations (so the reliability of the source can certainly be questioned) but given what we think the state of his army it wouldn't surprise me.  I could see the Russians wanting to freeze the war right where it is...and rebuild their army for the next round.  Honestly, Its his best move at this point in a sea of absolute terrible decisions if true.  I think the next couple weeks is going to really be telling...but I'd love to see the invaders driven to the border...which includes all their ill gotten territory grabs from 2014.

[Kinophile]

Ref that YouTube "analysis".  That really feels like they're behind the learning curve of this war, by about 4 months. The idea of a fast crumpling and penetrationif of the RUS outer shell is a very classic, pre-war NATO mindset, formed and dominated by theory, think tanks and dry exercises. It doesn't match current reality and immediate history of this war or,  crucially, the observed UKR style, which seems a unique blend of operational carefullness and tactical hyper-brass-ballery. It's pretty obvious the current UGS has the measure both of the Ivan and their own forces, and these particular analysts absolutely do not.

Also, some of their thoughts are really not that thought out. 

Eg Ref the pipes, how do you cross a the river with these?  Lay above the water or below it. Ok, let's try above, so on the bridges or a pontoon. But,  HIMARS, so bridges are Nope and the pontoons are unfinished.  What about below the surface?

Well, anything on water requires significant (read, highly visible) engineering and support. Now triple that at least for under water,  because currents. River currents are the worst ex-partner ever, sucking up money and wasting time in a wildly uncaring and relentless manner. 

You don't just drop the pipes on the river bed and hope for the best, at the very least you need to dig a trench,  lay the pipe then cover it,  all the time fighting the current,  which can be significantly stronger at the bottom.

You could leave them naked on the bed -  but,  you're really,  really taking a chance with debris damage. No river bed is static because currents, plus river currents change drastically seasonally and even daily. A change in current carves a different shaped bed, brings debris and pressure from a different angle and unless you have a high grade, flexible  (read, high tech) pipe joint that can deal with that fundamental nature of riverine sub-marine engineering then you are SOOL.

Also,  to do anything significant on, in, or underwater you need divers.  Theyll have their own boat, they'll always be nearby,  tracking the construction  and will have a base onshore (even just some SUVs parked together, but if you know what to look for... ). They're not  usually more than a tiny footprint within the operation as a whole but they are absolutely necessary and can be easily visually identified. 

There's wayy more than this,  but I've got kids to feed and yell at. 

P. S. Finally,  the pipe has the to Enter/exit the water somewhere. That requires, no negotiation, a shore-side, long run submarine ramp to run the pipe up to and over/through the river bank without drastic kinks in angle. This ramp entrance/exit requires you to carve  a cutting in the river bank or break through existing riverine construction, so again, highly visible. 

How do I know this? Basic initial analysis on my part, background as an Architect,  Google plus a very high tech process of asking a marine engineer (my cousin in Australia) via text. Super difficult,  yup. 

---

These guys are B-grade. 

And I mean No offense to you, @Huba. You do great stuff here, I want to be clear. Big fan. 

Now,  I really gotta go yell at the brats. 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Perhaps it’s because the U.S. is a country of immigrants (literally, everyone came here from somewhere else, even the “Native Americans” came from somewhere else with each wave conquering, assimilating, or exterminating the existing tribes), that in my view, we have far fewer of the “you don’t belong here, go back to your country” issues. Yes, there are the same diehard racists as any other country, just fewer.

Case in point; today, a Labor Day fundraising event was held in Boston, Massachusetts (a city infamous for “No Irish need apply signs” posted on businesses during the 19th century) to raise money to help Ukrainian refugees resettle here. It was a joint event sponsored by the Communities of Ukrainian Immigrants AND Russian Immigrants, so as far as I’m concerned, all of the “The only good Russian is a dead Russian, kick them all out” in this thread is nothing more than Racist BS, and throughly disgusts me! Yes, the US has it’s own issues with the same garbage in the political circles, but at least we recognize it for the racism that it is, and try to deal with it.

 

1 hour ago, JonS said:

This literally applies to every populated place on earth. Not just the 'exceptional' US.

We should just let this go.  Personally, I think the US has a hard road ahead.  While I am optimistic that ultimately, we continue to progress, there is no mistaking that things are gonna be tough for a while.

Jim Crow lives again: Florida and Mississippi turn back the clock on voting rights | Salon.com

Best we stay focused on the war and not the social dynamics in play in the world right now.

[FancyCat]

34 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ref that YouTube "analysis".  That really feels like they're behind the learning curve of this war, by about 4 months. The idea of a fast crumpling and penetrationif of the RUS outer shell is a very classic, pre-war NATO mindset, formed and dominated by theory, think tanks and dry exercises. It doesn't match current reality and immediate history of this war or,  crucially, the observed UKR style, which seems a unique blend of operational carefullness and tactical hyper-brass-ballery. It's pretty obvious the current UGS has the measure both of the Ivan and their own forces, and these particular analysts absolutely do not.

It is interesting to see who can shift their thinking to how both Russia and Ukraine are operating, and those who remain behind. I recall France had issued their own updates on the frontline in Ukraine, similar to the UK MoD, which many pro-Russians used to dispute the rosy outlook of UK MoD and these dropped off hard after a while, anyone know if they just stopped issuing updates or what? 

 

[chrisl]

And just to add one more stake to the heart of the secret pipelines...

Even if you could secretly do all of what's been described (or just drag a fire hose across on one of the ferry trips) and hide the endpoints and the trucks coming to fill from it, once you start pushing oil through it it's going to get warm from the friction and show up on thermal imaging.

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

They are about to lose the ACTUAL war, too. They even know it, hence the coordinated eratz peace demonstrations and attempts to restart negotiations. Ukraine needs to tell them that negotiations will be conducted by 155 and HIMARS until the last Russian soldier leaves Ukrainian soil. It is damned shame they can't march to Moscow and read out terms in Red Square.

Ukraine really can't tell Russia anything of substance without NATO in the room. At some point, via continued and stepped up arms supplies, Ukraine and NATO will be able to negotiate from a position undeniable strength that no propaganda can hide. Russia will leave without Crimea. I don't think the level of military or economic pressure is enough right now. More time and/or pressure is required. NATO is unfortunately tip toeing its way there. Utter shame they are doing this to Ukrainians. Their nation needs a lot of re-building and that has to start very very soon. 

"Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster."
William Tecumseh Sherman
 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Ref that YouTube "analysis".  That really feels like they're behind the learning curve of this war, by about 4 months. The idea of a fast crumpling and penetrationif of the RUS outer shell is a very classic, pre-war NATO mindset, formed and dominated by theory, think tanks and dry exercises. It doesn't match current reality and immediate history of this war or,  crucially, the observed UKR style, which seems a unique blend of operational carefullness and tactical hyper-brass-ballery. It's pretty obvious the current UGS has the measure both of the Ivan and their own forces, and these particular analysts absolutely do not.

Also, some of their thoughts are really not that thought out. 

Eg Ref the pipes, how do you cross a the river with these?  Lay above the water or below it. Ok, let's try above, so on the bridges or a pontoon. But,  HIMARS, so bridges are Nope and the pontoons are unfinished.  What about below the surface?

Well, anything on water requires significant (read, highly visible) engineering and support. Now triple that at least for under water,  because currents. River currents are the worst ex-partner ever, sucking up money and wasting time in a wildly uncaring and relentless manner. 

You don't just drop the pipes on the river bed and hope for the best, at the very least you need to dig a trench,  lay the pipe then cover it,  all the time fighting the current,  which can be significantly stronger at the bottom.

You could leave them naked on the bed -  but,  you're really,  really taking a chance with debris damage. No river bed is static because currents, plus river currents change drastically seasonally and even daily. A change in current carves a different shaped bed, brings debris and pressure from a different angle and unless you have a high grade, flexible  (read, high tech) pipe joint that can deal with that fundamental nature of riverine sub-marine engineering then you are SOOL.

Also,  to do anything significant on, in, or underwater you need divers.  Theyll have their own boat, they'll always be nearby,  tracking the construction  and will have a base onshore (even just some SUVs parked together, but if you know what to look for... ). They're not  usually more than a tiny footprint within the operation as a whole but they are absolutely necessary and can be easily visually identified. 

There's wayy more than this,  but I've got kids to feed and yell at. 

P. S. Finally,  the pipe has the to Enter/exit the water somewhere. That requires, no negotiation, a shore-side, long run submarine ramp to run the pipe up to and over/through the river bank without drastic kinks in angle. This ramp entrance/exit requires you to carve  a cutting in the river bank or break through existing riverine construction, so again, highly visible. 

How do I know this? Basic initial analysis on my part, background as an Architect,  Google plus a very high tech process of asking a marine engineer (my cousin in Australia) via text. Super difficult,  yup. 

---

These guys are B-grade. 

And I mean No offense to you, @Huba. You do great stuff here, I want to be clear. Big fan. 

Now,  I really gotta go yell at the brats. 

Absolutely outstanding post!

Edit, So if it exist, or ever existed, it is in the much slower water above the dam.

Edited September 5, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Mk1 one eyeball the Russians need pull out the Northern 1/4 of what they are holding in the Kherson pocket while they still have enough room to make it a pull out and not the Highway of Death, Ukrainian edition, part one. They have some their ever shrinking supply of VDV and other elite units up there. Mind I am happy make popcorn and pour a beer to watch that show...

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Ref that YouTube "analysis".  That really feels like they're behind the learning curve of this war, by about 4 months.

The idea of a fast crumpling and penetration of the RUS outer shell is a very classic, pre-war NATO mindset, formed and dominated by theory, think tanks and dry exercises. It doesn't match current reality and immediate history of this war or,  crucially, the observed UKR style, which seems a unique blend of operational carefullness and tactical hyper-brass-ballery.

It's pretty obvious the current UGS has the measure both of the Ivan and their own forces, and these particular analysts absolutely do not.

Great synthesis, @Kinophile, in addition to the engineering points.

It seems Ukrainian losses have indeed been heavy, albeit no evidence of a breaking point. Transcarpathia declared a day of mourning for 7 KIA.

There may be a great deal in the earlier  discussion about UA 'middle management' still being a work in progress. ....Perhaps commands remain a little too slow at battalion and brigade level to 'flow into' openings their tactical light units create opportunistically.

....Or else they go by the (pre-Feb) book, get stalled or merely snarled, and then the Russians call in their (still) heavy guns on the idled mass that has obligingly formed?

(I am speculating here, based on the bits and pieces above. Squinting at the flames dancing on the wall of the OPSEC cave)

****

And yes, historical analogies predict precisely nothing, but hey guess what? this is a wargaming board....

This 'feels' a bit like the July 1944 bocage push above St. Lo.  Simply put, after a month of near deadlock, 352 Division, which is already a Frankenstein made up of other bled out German units, simply runs out of landser to counterattack US penetrations, even though their mortars and mediums are still raining a drizzle of hell to the end.

Yes, a lot of progress was made tactically by the GIs (Rhinos, rifle+bazooka+MMG teams etc.), and that mattered, sure. But the key thing for the attacking divisions writ large was to stay in the ring, keep up the pressure, and keep killing the enemy.

...And so from 12 - 15 July, it went from '3 hedgerows per day' agonising slogs to a broad German withdrawal (albeit still orderly, no rout). They vacated Pont Hebert and their key OPs, and couldn't even contest the ruins of St. Lo at any scale.

[DesertFox]

8 hours ago, Artkin said:

I wonder if it's software controlled, and I also wonder if the helicopters came that way

I´m pretty sure it is pure skill. As it was by example with the british mosquito pilots in WW2 flying incredible low to avoid AAA. Operation Carthage footage or Operation Jericho is testament to that.

 http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/487sqn-over-amiens-large.jpg

http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/kirkpatrick14.jpg

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by DesertFox

[JonS]

Theres a recent movie on Netflix about that raid: 'the bombardment.' It's rather good.

Edited September 5, 2022 by JonS

[fireship4]

I am a regular watcher of the 'War in Ukraine' YouTube channel.  They made some comments regarding sanctions increasing oil prices and counter-productively benefiting Russia.  In the interest of examining the issue and the related issue of Russian natural gas supply to Europe:

Quote

 

[Bulletpoint]

40 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I´m pretty sure it is pure skill. As it was by example with the british mosquito pilots in WW2 flying incredible low to avoid AAA. Operation Carthage footage or Operation Jericho is testament to that.

Which is a bit ironic, since the reason that operation went wrong and so many civilians died was that the bombers went so low that one hit a mast.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Which is a bit ironic, since the reason that operation went wrong and so many civilians died was that the bombers went so low that one hit a mast.

Yep. Saw that film on Netflix. Very sad story how that bombing of Jeanne d´Arc school came about. War is hell.

[Huba]

UA General Staff morning report is out. They started reporting about Kherson again, and they mentioned enemy shelling in Novovaskresenske, which is really deep inside RU held territory. If that is right, it would mean that UA managed to break 10 km inside RU positions. It would be great to have some other confirmation of course, but sounds very optimistic nonetheless:

[Bulletpoint]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. Saw that film on Netflix. Very sad story how that bombing of Jeanne d´Arc school came about. War is hell.

Yes, it is. I live and work close by, and I think of it every time I pass by the memorial.

Anyway, back to the topic of Ukraine.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

I´m pretty sure it is pure skill. As it was by example with the british mosquito pilots in WW2 flying incredible low to avoid AAA. Operation Carthage footage or Operation Jericho is testament to that.

 http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/487sqn-over-amiens-large.jpg

http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/kirkpatrick14.jpg

 

 

 

Yep...flying as low as possible to evade AD is as old as ground attack aviation. In the monologue intro to "The Ballad of Robin Olds," fighter pilot folksinger Dick Jonas reminisces about flying F-4s "so close to the ground you had to look up to see the treetops" in Vietnam. Back before my tow pilot days, when I was an air cadet myself, a lot of the L-19 pilots were former F-104 drivers...I distinctly recall one secondhand anecdote about a 104 coming back in to Cold Lake smelling like a campfire from the the tree branches it had ingested (probably the main part of the F-104's much-discussed loss rate was the mission profiles expected of it by air forces that flew it in the attack role...Spain, and I'm pretty sure also Japan, Taiwan and other countries that used it in its original interceptor role, never had much of an issue with it).

I have sometimes wondered what proportion of Ukrainian (and Russian for that matter) aircraft losses have been CFIT (controlled flight into terrain)...

Edited September 5, 2022 by G.I. Joe
Correcting quote

[kraze]

13 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Bezugla "intervention in comamnd line chain" as a reason of Siverodonetsk falling - this is ridiculous hype of Butusov, no more. She is nobody for military even though she came from President's office.  

She is not a reason for Siverodonetsk falling and Butusov never claimed as much. Nobody ever did (however the reason for why Crimean bridges weren't blown up stated by Podolyak is enough to end political careers of all of them... after the victory of course). But it's one example of political meddling with army affairs outside of the chain of command to win those sweet PPs and slap medals on people from political surroundings who don't deserve it. In fact just as I was writing yesterday's post - Bezugla managed to become a catalyst for another army-related scandal, which I'm sure you noticed (female conscription).

But this all is for after the victory. We still have a two headed hen to fry.

Edited September 5, 2022 by kraze