How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Would Ukraine have that hard of a time figuring out where Russian pipelines were given US ISR and analytical capabilities plus their own on the ground humint? Actually…no, they wouldn’t. That strikes me as one of those things that experts say to sound smart but…well….isn’t.

The idea is interesting though, isn't it? I guess it is just another point to attrit, there has to be some storage and fueling facilities at the end of it. Probably can be repaired/ replaced too, and then hit again...

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

The idea is interesting though, isn't it? I guess it is just another point to attrit, there has to be some storage and fueling facilities at the end of it. Probably can be repaired/ replaced too, and then hit again...

Exactly. This isn’t rock/paper/scissors. It is a contingent process with ebbs and flows, reactions and counter reactions. It’s also, given how little data we really possess, somewhat of a fruitless endeavor to try and make a judgement on that sort of data. What we *do* know is that Russia profoundly lacks manpower. We know that the RA is, if not demoralized, then close to it. And we know it is under pressure and retreating in some areas in the Kherson oblast. I’ll take that over a possibly specious point about pipelines.

[FancyCat]

Nothing about the amount of ammo explosions across occupied Ukraine, nor the strikes on Crimea indicates UKR lack of ISR and partisan operators so big doubt Ukraine cannot locate the pumping stations or pipelines. 

Big doubt, maybe these Poles are assuming too much that Russia is equal to NATO still? 

The photos of Russian ammo stockpiles show the same piled up easily explodable deathtraps give very little indication Russia is changing their logistics operations or is capable of doing so. 

Edited September 4, 2022 by FancyCat

[dan/california]

24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Would Ukraine have that hard of a time figuring out where Russian pipelines were given US ISR and analytical capabilities plus their own on the ground humint? Actually…no, they wouldn’t. That strikes me as one of those things that experts say to sound smart but…well….isn’t.

You don't look for the pipelines, you look for the fuel trucks. Those are rather findable.

[Beleg85]

41 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

A reminder, betrayal of blood means a harsher response than say, some random people off the street choosing to go to another restaurant. Russian discourse on blood, isn't merely to emphasize the position of familiarity, it's also to justify the brutality of their repression as proper punishment for Ukrainian betrayal of their blood ties. 

Think about honor killings, being done by members of the victims' family, despite the closeness one would assume of the family members. The familiarity is nothing more than justification for control. 

There is something with this analogy, but don't think it is yet this level of insanity. It comes from very different culture, honorary killings are fatal for victim plus they are admitting she had her agency before. Russian propaganda use different langauge; it is older brother chastening misguided younger brother. After the punishment (severe but fair) he will go back to family remorsful by his wrongdoings. Remember, Russians oficially think they are Good Guys who just happen to lost InfoWar. They have entire TV shows openly dwelling on just this very topic, with various expers of propaganda warfare (yep, i know...) commenting what went wrong.

Of course they are always concluding it was Yankee money and perfidous Boris that defeat them at propaganda front, not their own atrocities or siliness of their cause. But they are not hiding their defeat in this regard; it even reinforce narration of them being lone warrior.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There is something with this analogy, but don't think it is yet this level of insanity. It comes from very different culture, honorary killings are fatal for victim plus they are admitting she had her agency before. Russian propaganda use different langauge; it is older brother chastening misguided younger brother. After the punishment (severe but fair) he will go back to family remorsful by his wrongdoings. Remember, Russian oficially think they are Good Guys who just happen to lost InfoWar.

 

They are about to lose the ACTUAL war, too. They even know it, hence the coordinated eratz peace demonstrations and attempts to restart negotiations. Ukraine needs to tell them that negotiations will be conducted by 155 and HIMARS until the last Russian soldier leaves Ukrainian soil. It is damned shame they can't march to Moscow and read out terms in Red Square.

[Letter from Prague]

I'm late to the party due to a business trip, but to comment on the Prague protests.

The political parties organizing it were 1) SPD ("common man" far right party, claiming to be direct democracy party - basically nazis) 2) Tricolor ("intellectual" far right party, basically nazis in suits) and 3) Communists (actual Stalinists who renamed themselves after the revolution, sadly never got banned). None of these parties had any success in last elections, by the way, and all are basically known to be getting Kremlin money.

They were protesting for 1) leaving the EU 2) leaving the NATO 3) leaving the WHO (... wtf) 4) "not diluting Czech nation with Ukrainian refugees" 5) removing sanctions and buying Russian gas 6) some other nonsense like people being give 3 MWh of electricity every year or something.

So yeah - nazis, antivaxxers, commies, traitors and idiots.

Some of us have already made arrangements to run a counter-protest in case they do this again - it is true that we got bit blindsided by there being so many of these scum.

[Harmon Rabb]

 

9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So yeah - nazis, antivaxxers, commies, traitors and idiots.

Commies and Nazis holding hands praising Putin's regime. Sounds like Dugin's dream come true.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Bennie]

A last comment about the Buryatian vet, since my previous was largely misconstrued:

This guy is just one data point and an atypical one at that. He's not much of a barometer and no one here is drawing general conclusions of any kind, including ones favorable to Russian character or intent. 

The vet is not politically sophisticated and won't be organizing any peace marches. But he doesn't say, "They are our brothers, so it's kinda sad that we have to kill them for being Nazis." Rather he says, in effect, This is a mess. They are our brothers. It's hard to shoot. Why are we here? F the money i'm going back home to Buryatia and my poverty.

[akd]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

... except in the last part of the video he says he doesn't understand why they are there shooting at "their brothers".

When they say this, they mean little brothers. And if little brother doesn’t do what big brother says, little brother should expect a beating. Big brother still loves him, though…well…as long as he respects the correct order of things.

[akd]

Another T-90M (I think) on the Kherson front. This one total loss:

Edited September 5, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

1. They are rather pessimistic regarding how cut off russians really are. There are reportedly field pipelines delivering fuel across the river, practically impossible to identify and shut down. RU has a huge fleet of transport helicopters (Mi-26 anyone?), but first and foremost, it is very hard to interdict the ferries. However, artillery ammunition in regular quantities might be a problem.

That really does not check out.  If they were existing pipelines, then Ukraine built them before the war and they know exactly where they are.  If they were built over the last six months during the occupation, even a small pipeline construction is going to be highly visible - gotta clear cut lines, lay down support, lay pipe, cross rivers, add stations etc.  With western ISR they would have watched them build the thing in real time…and know exactly where it is and could have already blown them .

No way they can support 25k troops on the defence effectively by tac aviation lift.  Medivac, troop lift and basics like food maybe but the heavier natures of supply like POL, ammo, spare parts, field defence stores, forget about it.

Edited September 5, 2022 by The_Capt

[acrashb]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 Ukraine needs to tell them that negotiations will be conducted by 155 and HIMARS until the last Russian soldier leaves Ukrainian soil. 

Ukraine has been doing just that, and pretty clearly, for example:

Zelenski says Russia’s war against Ukraine must end with liberation of Crimea (msn.com)

Zelensky Pledges ‘Liberation’ For Crimea After Russian Warplanes Are Destroyed (forbes.com)

 

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So yeah - nazis, antivaxxers, commies, traitors and idiots.

Some of us have already made arrangements to run a counter-protest in case they do this again - it is true that we got bit blindsided by there being so many of these scum.

Prague was already "hosting" very large crowds of antivaxxers and weirdos before, so it was to be expected as scene was better prepared. Here they are still forming but are already visible; I am genuinly wandering where were stones those lizards crawl out and how shameless they are in supporting Russia. I mean zero finesse, they don't even try to hide it like it would be several years ago. We will undoubtedly see similar movements going fully pro-Russia also in other CEE countries, even FInland or Baltics.

We can be 100% sure Prague crowd was coordinated with march in Cologna and similar events across Europe.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That really does not check out.  If they were existing pipeline, then Ukraine built them before the war and they know exactly where they are.  If they were built over the last six months during the occupation, even a small pipeline construction is going to be highly visible - gotta clear cut lines, lay down support, lay pipe, cross rivers, add stations etc.  With western ISR they would have watched them build the thing in real time…and know exactly where it is and could have already blown them .

No way they can support 25k troops on the defence effectively by tac aviation lift.  Medivac, troop lift and basics like food maybe but the heavier natures of supply like POL, ammo, spare parts, field defence stores, forget about it.

Now I'm just passing the argument (hoping it will get massacred TBH), but regarding the pipeline I assume they meant something like this, rather easy and fast to lay, especially with specialized detachments that RU (and to my surprize, PL and many other NATO countries) have:

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Prague was already "hosting" very large crowds of antivaxxers and weirdos before, so it was to be expected as scene was better prepared. Here they are still forming but are visible; I am actually genuinly surprised where were stones those lizards crawl out. We will see similar movements going fully pro-Russia also in other CEE countries, even FInland or Baltics.

We can be 100% sure Prague crowd was coordinated with march in Cologna and similar events across Europe.

The Russian intelligence agencies are burning every last match, connection, and Euro in a desperate attempt to freeze the conflict before the Russian army implodes. I think it way too late. The next sign will be Russia offering to return to 2/24 borders as gesture of goodwill, or in return for the legal transfer of Crimea. That should be the signal for the Ukrainians to push hard on the entire front, they aren't going to make that offer until they don't have any choice. Also watching for the more or less complete dissolution of the L/DPR.

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So yeah - nazis, antivaxxers, commies, traitors and idiots.

I think you had a typo, perhaps you mean to say "So yeah - nazis, antivaxxers, commies, traitors -- Idiots.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Now I'm just passing the argument (hoping it will get massacred TBH), but regarding the pipeline I assume they meant something like this, rather easy and fast to lay, especially with specialized detachments that RU (and to my surprize, PL and many other NATO countries) have:

 

They still have to put fuel in it, and get fuel out of it to frontline units, and those spots are findable.

[JonS]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

something like this,

You should assume TC is familiar with the idea, if not necessarily that specific equipment And while it's faster to lay than something like DAPL, it still leaves a large and obvious signature both during construction and afterwards during operation.

[dan/california]

I may be having attack of wishful thinking, but I don't think we are going to have to wait weeks for the Russians to crack.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

You should assume TC is familiar with the idea, if not necessarily that specific equipment And while it's faster to lay than something like DAPL, it still leaves a large and obvious signature both during construction and afterwards during operation.

Well, my lack of knowledge in the matter couldn't be made more obvious it seems  I remember PLUTO, but wasn't aware the field pipelines were so common in the contemporary armies. Anyway, I'm glad that these two talking head's points are easily refutable

Edited September 5, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Well, my lack of knowledge in the matter couldn't be made more obvious it seems  I remember PLUTO, but wasn't aware the field pipelines were so common in the contemporary armies. Anyway, I'm glad that these two talking head's points are easily refutable

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgeVuwxOkAo

Good starter for newbies (being one of them ).

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russian intelligence agencies are burning every last match, connection, and Euro in a desperate attempt to freeze the conflict before the Russian army implodes.

Fight for control of the contact net in Western Europe may be one of the causes in the background behind Dugina murder. We discussed it before; not probable, but not impossible too. Certainly Putin need to accelerate his support among goons in the West before Winter.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Now I'm just passing the argument (hoping it will get massacred TBH), but regarding the pipeline I assume they meant something like this, rather easy and fast to lay, especially with specialized detachments that RU (and to my surprize, PL and many other NATO countries) have:

 

Oh military field pipelines exist and I am sure the Russians even have them (assuming someone maintained them).  In NATO we have them, the French are the experts apparently.  Problems with Kherson:

- Still need a lot of trucks and engineers to lay them, hard to miss on modern battlefield.  And crossing the Dnipro - an area they would have had  a lot of eyes on would have been damned hard.

- They are designed to be laid well back in the Corp/Div rear areas, outside of enemy artillery range and well protected from air strikes. Normally a fuel farm is constructed that is linked to civilian infrastructure or they bring fuel in bulk via trains.  One does not run an operational pipeline that close to the frontlines because once it is seen it is hit.

- To lay it across the Dnipro to a fuel point (again very hard to hide), in range of UA guns and missiles, they would have to dig the thing in in order for it to have any survivability.  And we are back to very hard to hide.

-  The fuel farm would have to be out of HIMARs range, and impossible to hide but also target #1 for whoever has been blowing up airfields.

So technically possible but I would be shocked if they could pull it off and not get smacked by UA arty or some such.

As to deep penetration as Plan A, we have seen no evidence of this on the UA side.  They have been pretty tight but sending a formation 20-30kms deep takes a lot of logistics build up and mass, which even the Russian could have seen.  From what I can see a broad front attrition-to-manoeuvre was the most likely plan, after they had already stressed the RA support system.

Real question is not “how well can the RA resupply?” Because unless we missed something big it won’t be enough without working bridges.  The question is “how much did the RA stockpile that did not get got by UA deep strike?”  That is the long pole in the tent as to how long that they can hold out….physically, moral is a different beast.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh military field pipelines exist and I am sure the Russians even have them (assuming someone maintained them).  In NATO we have them, the French are the experts apparently.  Problems with Kherson:

- Still need a lot of trucks and engineers to lay them, hard to miss on modern battlefield.  And crossing the Dnipro - an area they would have had  a lot of eyes on would have been damned hard.

- They are designed to be laid well back in the Corp/Div rear areas, outside of enemy artillery range and well protected from air strikes. Normally a fuel farm is constructed that is linked to civilian infrastructure or they bring fuel in bulk via trains.  One does not run an operational pipeline that close to the frontlines because once it is seen it is hit.

- To lay it across the Dnipro to a fuel point (again very hard to hide), in range of UA guns and missiles, they would have to dig the thing in in order for it to have any survivability.  And we are back to very hard to hide.

-  The fuel farm would have to be out of HIMARs range, and impossible to hide but also target #1 for whoever has been blowing up airfields.

So technically possible but I would be shocked if they could pull it off and not get smacked by UA arty or some such.

As to deep penetration as Plan A, we have seen no evidence of this on the UA side.  They have been pretty tight but sending a formation 20-30kms deep takes a lot of logistics build up and mass, which even the Russian could have seen.  From what I can see a broad front attrition-to-manoeuvre was the most likely plan, after they had already stressed the RA support system.

Real question is not “how well can the RA resupply?” Because unless we missed something big it won’t be enough without working bridges.  The question is “how much did the RA stockpile that did not get got by UA deep strike?”  That is the long pole in the tent as to how long that they can hold out….physically, moral is a different beast.

Well, thank you for explaining the pipeline subject in depth, appreciate it  

[Vet 0369]

On 9/2/2022 at 9:39 AM, Butschi said:

I'd say integrate not assimilate. You are not required to lose your identity and culture but accept that your new host country has a different culture and adept to that.

Well, easier said than done and double standards are a thing here, too. I mean, I live near Stuttgart, Germany, and look at all the stuff for the US military here. I think it is perfectly possible to live here without ever getting into contact with German society. Not that I'd blame anyone, I'm from the Rhineland and after 10 years I'm quite certain the Swabians don't want me to integrate and I don't really want either. Also beer from Stuttgart sucks, give me Kölsch, thank you very much.

 

Perhaps it’s because the U.S. is a country of immigrants (literally, everyone came here from somewhere else, even the “Native Americans” came from somewhere else with each wave conquering, assimilating, or exterminating the existing tribes), that in my view, we have far fewer of the “you don’t belong here, go back to your country” issues. Yes, there are the same diehard racists as any other country, just fewer.

Case in point; today, a Labor Day fundraising event was held in Boston, Massachusetts (a city infamous for “No Irish need apply signs” posted on businesses during the 19th century) to raise money to help Ukrainian refugees resettle here. It was a joint event sponsored by the Communities of Ukrainian Immigrants AND Russian Immigrants, so as far as I’m concerned, all of the “The only good Russian is a dead Russian, kick them all out” in this thread is nothing more than Racist BS, and throughly disgusts me! Yes, the US has it’s own issues with the same garbage in the political circles, but at least we recognize it for the racism that it is, and try to deal with it.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Vet 0369
Typos