How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Translation: in Vysokopillia and it outskirts there are no enemy. It was pushed back from whole salient on Vysokpillia direction, somewhere behind Novopetrivka. 

 

Allegedly Russians withdrew 6 km south to the like Novopetrivka - Novovoznesenske. There is irrigation canal suitable to delay UKR troops, advancing from the north. Yesterday there was a video how UKR troops seized Russian position in Liubymivka - Myroliubivka area (16-18 km east). From there more suitable to advance to Novovoskresenske - the crossing point of minor roads, then assault canal from Vysokopillia or Arkhanhelske. If you have a time depict this on map please )

• URK forces push toward RU LOCs and from few km put it under fire (for example from ATGMs) without actually cutting it. It degrades RU forwards troops supply situation 
• UKR arty degrades RU arty that have to support RU troops non-stop
• HIMARS the rear
• Wait
• Profit - RU ran away

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

That's why I stopped with Girkin for a moment. He is good at describing RU situation but he is inherently bad judging UKR. So, read him with extreme caution. And it extends to any RU - they are inherently bad judging anything non-RU. 

But on other hand some parts are good (like description of hat UKR arty is doing).

I have always wondered about the terrible reporting on Ukrainian intentions and capabilities by RU Nats.  It is natural for them to degrade Ukraine's real capabilities through pure emotionally driven chauvinism.  It's also natural for people to view the enemy through their own perspective, which is a very common mistake made by even professional analysts with no deliberate intent of bias.  And then, obviously, there is an official position to understate Ukrainian capabilities and abilities because that goes against propaganda perspective of Russian superiority (i.e. Russia hasn't been able to show brilliance in this war, so do NOT admit Ukraine has).

What I've always wondered about people like Girkin, real fighters with a wide array of first hand combat experience, is which of these three things distorts his reporting the most.  And does the weight of each differ between someone like him and someone like WarGonzo (Semen Pegov).  Put another way, is Girkin as dumb as the propagandists when it comes to Ukrainian capabilities, or is he deliberately distort what he knows is true to fit the propaganda requirements?

Speaking of Pegov... I found this article on him from February.  It points out that he gets "detained" quite often.  The most interesting part, however, is at the end where it touches upon theories that he is in some way funded/associated by GRU.  This would certainly explain why he is always wherever the Russian military wants to create some favorable propaganda AND gets out of whatever legal trouble he gets into.

https://n01r.com/wargonzos-semen-pegov-coming-in-the-grus-back-door/

As an aside, I had totally forgotten about LifeNews!  Interesting to see the connection between it (now defunct) and WarGonzo.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About week ago there was strange report of General Staff, that UKR troops repelled Russian attacks in Staryi Karavan area and about two days later Russian wrote that "volunteer cossack battalion Kuban' repelled attack of Polish merceneries near Lyman". Looks like UKR crosed SD as far as week ago, but only now tough OpSec was slightly lifted

I remember that report and also us scratching our heads.  Looking at the maps the terrain is very favorable for infiltration attacks.

Ah, Lyman.  I remember so many commentators, even in the West, saying that Slavyansk would be next.  I also remember we did not share that opinion   Seems like the battles there were years ago instead of only a couple of months.

Steve

[Huba]

A compilation of Bayraktar strikes, showing 3 out of 8 claimed tanks:

 

[Haiduk]

Serhiy Prytula charity fund bought for gathered 700 000 EUR long-range UAV complexes Poseidon H10 and Poseidon H6 of Cyprus Swarmly LTD company.

Reportedly H10 will go to 26th artillery brigade: max range 150 km, satellite communication up to 50 km, 4 km ceiling, 3 kg of payload

H6  (larger one on the photo) will go to 120th recon battalion: max range 850 km, satellite communication up to 150 km, 25 kg of payload

 

[Battlefront.com]

I was discussing Kadyrov offline with a fellow Kadyrov watcher and he brought up another point to consider.

If you look at Grigb's 2 theories + my 2 theories there is a common element to them.  And that is someone powerful within the Kremlin is probably trying to change the power structure with Kadyrov.  There's many ways this could be playing out, but fundamentally whatever it is requires Kadyrov's approval and he doesn't approve.  His video was taunting them, along the lines I laid out in my previous post.

If Kadyrov goes through with withdrawing from his official Russian position, this doesn't mean he is no longer the defacto ruler over Chechnya.  What it means is he is no longer directly officially tied to the Kremlin.  And that means whatever the Kremlin does after he leaves doesn't fall on his shoulders.  Which in turn means if something happens to piss off the Chechen people then Kadyrov is free and clear of it.  This allows him to retain trust within the clans and therefore remain defacto leader.

The video message Kadyrov is putting out, therefore, could boil down to "if you think you can frighten me, you're going to have to try a lot harder because I think you should be frightened of me".

Whatever is going on we can be assured that it is of major significance and Chechen tea leaves need to be examined with even greater interest from now on.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another old school defeatist OpEd piece.  A former head of the CIA's Russia group should know better than to suggest making a deal with Putin:

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3622828-our-narrowing-options-in-ukraine/

Nothing new in this piece, just the usual "what we're doing now clearly isn't working and never will work, so we should pressure Ukraine to giving in and compromising with Russia".  Which is rather dumb considering that Putin is the one that clearly says he doesn't want to compromise.

Grr.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Probably aftermath photos of video with Russian arty ot MLRS strike on advancing UKR platoon, armed with YPR-765. One APC has destroyed with almost direct hit, other two damaged. 

 

Despite successes we pay big price for it... In recent days many citizens of Mykolaiv and Odesa has been donating own blood for wounded soldiers from Kherson front. Volunteers, who gather the money for medical equipment write we have huge number of wounded, so they wonder how our medics have a time to manage with this endless stream

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Probably aftermath photos of video with Russian arty ot MLRS strike on advancing UKR platoon, armed with YPR-765. One APC has destroyed with almost direct hit, other two damaged. 

 

Despite successes we pay big price for it... In recent days many citizens of Mykolaiv and Odesa has been donating own blood for wounded soldiers from Kherson front. Volunteers, who gather the money for medical equipment write we have huge number of wounded, so they wonder how our medics have a time to manage with this endless stream

It is horrible that ZSU has to do with these old, barely armored vehicles, while all the good stuff like Marders or Bradleys just gathers dust somewhere in storage. I really hope that after the next donor conference on September 8th there will be some change in direction, at least regarding the IFV. Shame Poland doesn't have much more to offer in this regard, BMPs are not an upgrade at all regarding protection

[Haiduk]

Just now, Huba said:

It is horrible that ZSU has to do with these old, barely armored vehicles, while all the good stuff like Marders or Bradleys just gathers dust somewhere in storage. I really hope that after the next donor conference on September 8th there will be some change in direction, at least regarding the IFV. Shame Poland doesn't have much more to offer in this regard, BMPs are not an upgrade at all regarding protection

I read our soldiers have very good opinion about M113 family. More space than in Soviet BTRs. And light armor anyway much better than trucks and pick-ups.

 

Likely new party of M1224 in Ukraine. I think, desert color will be appropriate in autumn steppes of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts

 

 

[Haiduk]

Chornobaivka airfield - how it looked in May

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

Perhaps the West just lacks the imagination to do anything other than bleed Ukraine white by arming them just enough to keep Russia off their backs but not piss them off. Finding and installing a friendly replacement for Putin's regime is just too slow, unpredictable and dangerous for "the sky is falling Nukes" cocktail crowd in Georgetown. Status quo ... let's go! is their college cheer. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chornobaivka airfield - how did it look in May

May was pre-HIMARS.  I haven't heard of any concentrated strikes since then.  Looks like it would be worth investing a couple of salvos.

BTW, the first thought I had when seeing this pictures is "yup, obviously Russia feels it has nothing to fear from Ukraine's inferior forces!"

Steve

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chornobaivka airfield - how it looked in May

That is exactly why getting rid of cluster munitions doesn't make sense.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

May was pre-HIMARS.  I haven't heard of any concentrated strikes since then.

Looks like almost nothing changed. Locals are writing periodically about strikes and explosions in Chornobaivka area. 

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile 79th air-assault brigade somewhere on Donbas took POWs, during their unsuccessful attack on UKR positions. 

Likely they are regular DPR fighters or "mobiks". Though one of them had a chevrone with known Russian meme writing "Hello! I'm Russian occupant!" from their propagandist short video.

UPD. POWs are from m/u 08880 - this is 1st "Slavianskaya" motor-rifle brigade of DPR. But among their personnel now can see such old fighters - obviosly this dad was cought on the market and threw in the battle

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile 79th air-assault brigade somewhere on Donbas took POWs, during their unsuccessful atatck on UKR positions. 

Likely they are regular DPR fighters or "mobiks". Though one of them had a chevrone with known Russian meme writing "Hello! I'm Russian occupant!" from their propagandist short video.

 

We might not think of 7 POWs as a big score, but at the tactical level this is potentially significant.  Presume they are from the same unit and that a few others were killed, wounded, or managed to successfully evade capture.  That is likely the equivalent of an entire real world strength Russian platoon.  Given how thinly spread Russian forces are, and how short Russia is on infantry in general, a platoon is likely holding a fairly good sized chunk of terrain with little immediate backup.  Removing that from the fight could, therefore, open up a tactically significant opportunity for Ukraine to exploit.

Steve

[OldSarge]

Perun dropped another video recognizing the 6 month mark of the war and discusses economics and endurance.

https://youtu.be/ce5TR-qWCk4

Times

00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:01:55 -- What Am I Covering?
00:02:53 -- GROUND NEWS
00:04:27 -- The War and Way Forward
00:04:44 -- A War of Position
00:06:13 -- Look at the Map!
00:07:40 -- How Do You Win?
00:08:23 -- Sanctions & the Economy
00:08:50 -- The Opening Punch
00:10:37 -- Adaptation & The Energy Dividend
00:12:31 -- Where Are We Now? (Officially)
00:13:39 -- Where Are We Now? (Actually)
00:15:43 -- Statistics & Economics Intelligence 101
00:18:57 -- A Moment for Perspective
00:21:21 -- Import Substitution & Demand
00:24:26 -- Capital Flight
00:26:24 -- Stimulus & Reserves
00:29:12 -- What Next?
00:30:34 -- Europe, Ukraine & The USA
00:30:48 -- Ukraine: The War Economy
00:33:14 -- USA: Uncomfortable But Dominant
00:34:53 -- Europe: Holding in There
00:36:32 -- The Energy War
00:36:54 -- Exposed Continent
00:38:22 -- Nervous Beginnings
00:39:43 -- Sanctions: Shots Fired
00:40:59 -- The Squeeze
00:42:19 -- European Response
00:45:27 -- Responses & Options
00:50:19 -- Russian Oil in the Crosshairs
00:54:17 -- The Limits of Coercion
00:58:33 -- The Political Dimension
01:00:33 -- Political Dimension: EU
01:01:56 -- EU Approval Survey
01:02:33 -- Importance of UE Membership Survey
01:03:26 -- Citizens' Positive Image of the EU Survey
01:04:03 -- European Support for Staying the Course
01:05:56 -- Sharp Decline in Favourable Views of Russia
01:08:08 -- American are Hawkish
01:11:38 -- Ukraine & The Will to Resist
01:13:47 -- Ukrainian Determination
01:17:00 -- The Fight Will Go On
01:18:24 -- Conclusions

Edited September 4, 2022 by OldSarge

[cesmonkey]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

  A former head of the CIA's Russia group should know better

From the bottom of that article in The Hill:

George Beebe is director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He is a former director of Russia analysis at the CIA, and a former staff adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney on Russian affairs.

From which you can go to:

https://quincyinst.org/about/

and find:

Quote

As a research institution, we expose the dangerous consequences of an unaccountable, overly militarized American foreign policy and present an alternative approach that promotes local ownership and resolution of local issues. 

 

[Haiduk]

If you try to read UKR social media you can encounter with many mentions and memes about watermelons. This is almost a symbol of Kherson oblast, which supply with own famous variety of watermelons "Khersonskyi" - big striped ones all country ) So, phrases and pictures about watermelons mean our offensive in Kherson )

  

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

If the Chornobaivka airfield is where I think it is, it's awfully close to the front and an obvious target If used as barracks or a UAV base, guided missiles might be overkill. Lower tech should make the base uncomfortable now and repairable later.  

[Grigb]

RU wagnerite comment about RU command UKR losses reports

Quote

Enemy losses have become a local joke since the war in Syria. When in the midst of the fighting, as well as the then rampant ISIL  and other militant groups actions, unthinkable figures of enemy personell losses began to be authored.

The fighters of the "special forces of special forces" (created to  combat international terrorism in Syria) really did their job perfectly, but the "stick system" [historically RU military and police KPI system - 1 of something is called stick. So, by the end of your shift you need to achieve so and so sticks] in the Ministry wanted even greater results. Namely, when the rotation took place and a new squad of "special forces of special forces" arrived, they needed to kill the enemy more than their predecessors. And here is the dilemma, the enemy became less and less every month, again, thanks to the "special forces of special forces", "Wagner Group" and the Russian Aerospace Forces, but the indicators in numerical equivalent [sticks] were becoming bigger and bigger, having reached completely indecent figures. The result of all this was, so to speak, the zeroing of the counter and the introduction of a system when the result was considered a result, only if there is photo/video fixation and/or parts/bodies as proof.

In the current war, the enemy's loss counter spun with such force that Yakubovich's [famous TV presenter with moustache] mustache fell out. Every blow, 200 opponents. Every day, the enemy loses aircraft. As a result, the number of lost aircraft and armored vehicles has already exceeded the number of those in service with the enemy before the start of the war.

Yes, of course there are moments when the enemy suffered heavy losses in view of valuable intelligence data and accurate missile and bomb attacks, such as at the Yavorovsky training ground and several other facilities. But anyone who has been in this war zone knows that it is difficult, especially now, to find a place where there will be 200 people. And provided that one or two "Caliber" missiles cannot not destroy the arbitrary school where the enemy is located, then it should be assumed that with 200 killed, there had to be 500-600 people there, that is, an entire school with 30 armed men in each class. [Obvious BS]

As for Nikolaevsk-Krivoy Rog directions, then there are no battles of the scope of the Second World War, there are no even battles like in the Donbass, for example like in Pisky. The whole party in this direction is like roaming around tree lines. The work of the DRG [Recons groups]. Some artillery. And occasional occupation of enemy lines. I'm talking about both sides, because degenerates are the same everywhere, and they graduated from the same schools at the time. [RU projection on UKR of RU incompetence]

You look at the direction map, you see these terrible numbers about the size of the enemy and you [start to] think, OMG, yes, looks like they are [all] sitting on trees there. But in reality, the situation on earth is much more prosaic – two platoons in the village and up to a group [squad] inside the fortified position.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Meanwhile, in the topsy turvy world of Russia's Western fanbase:

Ukraine military command opposed this disastrous offensive of diving deep into flat open land and allowing themselves to be cut off

The estimated force was 12,000 per Colonel MacGregor, “three brigades.”

Ukraine government is throwing untrained men into a meat grinder

Ukrainian casualties are huge. Reports speak of thousands of wounded. Many more have died. Russian MoD claimed 3000 “destroyed” over first 2 days, 1200 day 1. 1700 the second

Hundreds of Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed or captured

The 128th mountain brigade from Transcarpatia region got destroyed, 50% casualties. They were the last unused professional troops in the Ukrainian army

Kraken and similar units are shooting men who try to desert. Since the start of the war, young men have been fleeing, mainly to Poland, to escape conscription 

 

"The words of this wizard stand on their heads!" - Gimli

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ukraine military command opposed this disastrous offensive of diving deep into flat open land and allowing themselves to be cut off

Ukraine government is throwing untrained men into a meat grinder

The same narratives, being inserted in our media space by Russian PsyOps as well as "there is a conflict between Zaluzhyi and President's office, because Zelenskyi sees in Zaluzhnyi own political rival" with big glad were picked up by former president Poroshenko followers and his numerous bot-farms 

[Haiduk]

UKR soldiers on Siverskyi Donets. Soldier says "We are returning back. And without losses again"