How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

13 hours ago, Machor said:

Harmon Rabb already posted this, but undersold it - CB is a bitch:

 

Hopefully the shape of things to come.

[Holien]

12 minutes ago, slysniper said:

if weapons are getting in by land, food should be getting out.

I have read on another forum that Poland is working on converting a railway to the Ukrainian gauge to allow trains to carry grain straight through to a Baltic port. Not seen any reports on this but if true it could help break the blockade. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 minutes ago, slysniper said:

well, Just been thinking, plenty of effort to give military aid by sending all the weapons to ukraine.

but there is a lack of effort to get the grain that will start going to waste within the country out to the rest of the world that will suffer a food crises without it. The grain silo's are full presently from last years harvest and this years havest starts in a month.

The food stocks should be used to pay for all the support given.

I just saw how they are talking about the russian navel blockade preventing it from leaving the country. 

if weapons are getting in by land, food should be getting out. 

Once again, the political leaders are not addressing some real simple world needs in this crises.

Getting that naval blockage is similar problem to solve as a no fly zone.

You got to enforce it and Russians are sure to test it.

Also Turkey decides everything with their strait. 

[billbindc]

28 minutes ago, slysniper said:

well, Just been thinking, plenty of effort to give military aid by sending all the weapons to ukraine.

but there is a lack of effort to get the grain that will start going to waste within the country out to the rest of the world that will suffer a food crises without it. The grain silo's are full presently from last years harvest and this years havest starts in a month.

The food stocks should be used to pay for all the support given.

I just saw how they are talking about the russian navel blockade preventing it from leaving the country. 

if weapons are getting in by land, food should be getting out. 

Once again, the political leaders are not addressing some real simple world needs in this crises.

Rail can get out about 600,000 tons of grain per month while Ukraine's seaports were capably of doing 5,000,000 tons per month. There are pretty hard limits that "come on Biden, do somefink" can't change much when it comes to rail capacity. What can be done is already happening and it's unlikely to change things too much.

[womble]

30 minutes ago, Holien said:

I have read on another forum that Poland is working on converting a railway to the Ukrainian gauge to allow trains to carry grain straight through to a Baltic port. Not seen any reports on this but if true it could help break the blockade. 

That's been mentioned here too.

As has the fact that rail transport is being used to transport grain out of Ukraine, but hasn't anywhere near the capacity to replace the lost tonnage from maritime cargo.

As has the fact that Ukraine's grain alone won't make up the shortfalls; Russian grain is also not getting out, because people are reluctant to buy it.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Alexey Moskovchenko, unit unknown

 

[poesel]

Belarus also offered to open its borders to Ukrainian grain if some of the sanctions are lifted. 
Personally I would be ok with allowing Belarus to export their grain even if some of that is actually Russian. No need to let people starve over an overall small detail. 

[akd]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

Belarus also offered to open its borders to Ukrainian grain if some of the sanctions are lifted. 
Personally I would be ok with allowing Belarus to export their grain even if some of that is actually Russian. No need to let people starve over an overall small detail. 

The export of Russian and Belarussian grain is not blocked.  They are offering to let Ukraine ship grain through their territory (compatible rail) in exchange for sanctions relief (all the while allowing Russia to continue attacking Ukraine from their territory).

Edited June 4, 2022 by akd

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

Oh my god, stupid orks... 

 

Z nami Bog?

 

I have doubts about that red line....

 

Below is Yarova, beyond that steep massif above, where the RU flag  is on the map. Took them a week+ to take it.

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Armorgunner]

10 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It is and I was wrong, I'm happy to say.

Fortunately my Mother taught me  not to gamble.

Just Kidding! We are all very happy that the war did not go as you thought, at the time. And about gambling? I´m not in to it either 

[LongLeftFlank]

I don't have a translation, but meaning seems clear enuff 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

4 hours ago, kraze said:

What westerners, most of whom are very conscious people (hence why you don't live in totalitarian states, no matter how much smoothie-sipping leftists like to whine about it), fail to understand about people living in totalitarian states they themselves built - is their thought process and why they say things they say.

...

Democratic leaders require 51% support to stay in power. Dictators require 95%.

Your definitions are categorically wrong.  A dictator with actual 95% support isn't a dictator but a phenomenally popular leader.  An autocrat maybe.   A Dictator in reality relies on brute force power to stay on top.  Pinochet, Kim Jong un, Robert Mugabe etc. State control of the media and education systems, full control of the state police and military institutions, judiciary etc ensures control.  

And what the heck is that "smoothie sipping leftist" comment?  I don't think you are finding in the US that the "smoothie sipping leftists" are Putin's main apologists.  Granted the left can have some annoying as hell pontificators, they however haven't been the ones most vocally decrying the US gov't support for Ukraine.  Who within the French political scene has been arguing against supporting Ukraine?  Same in most other western states.  Gimme a smoothie and arm the hell out of Ukraine. (actually,  i prefer coffee and wine).

[Holien]

1 hour ago, womble said:

That's been mentioned here too

Sorry Womble I must have missed that Poland was actually laying the Ukrainian gauge railway to the Baltic. 

Can you kindly post where that was discussed here? 

I have just done a quick Google and can find the desire for it but no actual work being done, maybe our Polish friends can chip in?

It certainly has been mentioned in this rather long thread that having to cross handle between the gauges doesn't help the process, so I was intrigued to read Poland was actively working on it, but on the other forum it was not backed up by a link.

Btw I must say your tone of response was a bit poor. 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

Your definitions are categorically wrong.  A dictator with actual 95% support isn't a dictator but a phenomenally popular leader.  An autocrat maybe.   A Dictator in reality relies on brute force power to stay on top.  Pinochet, Kim Jong un, Robert Mugabe etc. State control of the media and education systems, full control of the state police and military institutions, judiciary etc ensures control.  

And what the heck is that "smoothie sipping leftist" comment?  I don't think you are finding in the US that the "smoothie sipping leftists" are Putin's main apologists.  Granted the left can have some annoying as hell pontificators, they however haven't been the ones most vocally decrying the US gov't support for Ukraine.  Who within the French political scene has been arguing against supporting Ukraine?  Same in most other western states.  Gimme a smoothie and arm the hell out of Ukraine. (actually,  i prefer coffee and wine).

Hear hear! In Poland the only parliamentarian left party broke all their "tankie" connections on D+1 and is supporting giverent in their policies. Far right OTOH is already trying to capitalize on anti-Ukrainian sentiments - without success. For now... 

[billbindc]

Just now, Huba said:

Hear hear! In Poland the only parliamentarian left party broke all their "tankie" connections on D+1 and is supporting giverent in their policies. Far right OTOH is already trying to capitalize on anti-Ukrainian sentiments - without success. For now... 

Same in the US. It's only the very furthest left and a more sizable part of the right that's against our Ukraine policy. It's the one area of real consensus in American politics at the moment.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Holien said:

Sorry Womble I must have missed that Poland was actually laying the Ukrainian gauge railway to the Baltic. 

Can you kindly post where that was discussed here? 

I have just done a quick Google and can find the desire for it but no actual work being done, maybe our Polish friends can chip in?

It certainly has been mentioned in this rather long thread that having to cross handle between the gauges doesn't help the process, so I was intrigued to read Poland was actively working on it, but on the other forum it was not backed up by a link.

Btw I must say your tone of response was a bit poor. 

Nothing like the bolded part is happening, it would take years, not feasible at all. There is a number of transloading facilities on both sides of the border and those are getting up to speed, but it is by no way sufficient. I didn't check on this topic lately, I'll dig a bit and get back with some info. 

[CHEqTRO]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

Hear hear! In Poland the only parliamentarian left party broke all their "tankie" connections on D+1 and is supporting giverent in their policies. Far right OTOH is already trying to capitalize on anti-Ukrainian sentiments - without success. For now... 

Being fair to him, while its true that the center european left has been mostly pro ukranian, that cannot be said for the left here in Western Europe. I, of course talk from the experience I have here in Spain, but from what I see, the same can be applied to the British isles and France. Funnily enough, while the left is generally pro-russian, even the center one, with the extreme left being very rabidly so; a big part of the extreme right is somewhat pro-ukranian, in contrast to our other European partners. There is a lot of "Trumpist" that are pro russian thought, but that has more to do with the current american president being a democrat, rather of what they think of Russia or Ukraine, i feel.

Edited June 4, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Holien]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

Nothing like the bolded part is happening, it would take years, not feasible at all. There is a number of transloading facilities on both sides of the border and those are getting up to speed, but it is by no way sufficient. I didn't check on this topic lately, I'll dig a bit and get back with some info. 

Thanks for the quick response. I think the other forum member has got it wrong, pity. But as you say it is a massive undertaking. 

[cesmonkey]

19 hours ago, FancyCat said:

You weren't kidding about RFE, they are heading into Severodonetsk. Crazy especially after the French journalist died in the city.

 

I wonder if these recent losses in the International Legion occurred in Severodenetsk?

https://www.facebook.com/ukr.international.legion/posts/pfbid0YdFUktSM4hB3ue3Fsk7zNCt38VFe5nnnVX2bAnBTbcqo6rtYHuNKvFM1AoD9f6Bxl

[asurob]

35 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Same in the US. It's only the very furthest left and a more sizable part of the right that's against our Ukraine policy. It's the one area of real consensus in American politics at the moment.

Truth....speaking as a smoothie drinking leftist ( :P) in the US it's really the extreme left and right that are vocally outspoken against the US support.  The right wing types are just trying to score points against the president.  The extreme leftys are just as stupid...as always.  It is one of the few things that me and most of my Navy buddies agree about in American politics.  We are all in favor of more weapons to defeat Russian.  

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Bottom line is that even data from open sources, put in the right hands or group of hands, can come remarkably close to classified secrets.

This is certainly the case for my views on the conflict generally and the war specifically.  I do not have any sources that you guys don't have access to.  Obviously I chit chat with others offline, but they also don't have special access to sources we don't have in front of us.

What it boils down to is people who have applicable experience and a willingness to listen to different points of view are going to be way ahead of anybody else trying to make sense of a particular topic.  Above all else, though, is a good processes for sorting through information and filter out the relevant from irrelevant, likely true from likely false.  People who buy into conspiracy theories, for example, lack that sort of process and therefore can form opinions that are wildly off the mark.

Another very important component is a willingness, even eagerness, to to have ones opinions challenged by others.  Again, conspiracy theorists absolutely refuse to do this.  Political, social, and other belief systems fall can fall into the same category.  A profound unwillingness to question ones own beliefs is not limited to the obviously nutty portion of our species.

Relevant to what we're discussing here, we have all been following the opinions of this war from various people held up as experts in their fields.  They are looking at the same information we are, some of them probably more than what we have access to.  And yet, their opinion about this war have been consistently wrong in the factual sense of the word.  Why?  Because they see there is something wrong with how they are assessing the data and, ultimately, an unwillingness to concede that point.  Instead, they stick to their guns and continually try to reestablish their credibility by making the same analytical mistakes that got them off track to start with.

The best way to avoid this sort of problem is for an expert to engage in open debate with others who are at least within the ballpark of knowing what they are talking about.  There is a LOT of good that can come from someone who knows one or two things or asks one or two intriguing questions even if that person otherwise has little else to contribute.  This is a humbling experience as it obligates the expert to defend positions and risk being out debated by someone who is not "part of the club".  It is not surprising that experts in their fields often avoid the risks that come from open debate.

You guys know that I've been making a lot of right calls about this war from the start.  Tooting my own horn a bit, this seems to indicate that I have the basic capabilities to base conclusions on the facts at hand in a way that generally holds up to be more correct than not as the war plays out.  But without the discussions here, with people contributing in their own ways and challenging my own thinking, I'd likely not be able to do much more than a very generalized gut feeling "Russia will lose".

So a big thanks to you guys for helping keep this discussion active and productive.  From a professional standpoint, I need to understand warfare at all levels in order to do the job that you guys effectively pay me to do.  And that is make the most realistic simulation of warfare possible.  I think we're all doing a pretty good job making sure that happens

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Your definitions are categorically wrong.  A dictator with actual 95% support isn't a dictator but a phenomenally popular leader.  An autocrat maybe.   A Dictator in reality relies on brute force power to stay on top.  Pinochet, Kim Jong un, Robert Mugabe etc. State control of the media and education systems, full control of the state police and military institutions, judiciary etc ensures control.  

And what the heck is that "smoothie sipping leftist" comment?  I don't think you are finding in the US that the "smoothie sipping leftists" are Putin's main apologists.  Granted the left can have some annoying as hell pontificators, they however haven't been the ones most vocally decrying the US gov't support for Ukraine.  Who within the French political scene has been arguing against supporting Ukraine?  Same in most other western states.  Gimme a smoothie and arm the hell out of Ukraine. (actually,  i prefer coffee and wine).

My inference was that Kraze meant to imply that "smoothie sipping leftists" are prone to talk about their own democratic governments as if they're totalitarian regimes, not that they're pro-Putin. But I may have been misreading his intended meaning...

Otherwise, totally agree... especially the arm the hell out of Ukraine bit...

(And I'm more of a coffee or beer -preferably medium to dark, but I won't say no to a good Pilsner or a less-bitter IPA- kind of guy, but each to their own... )

Edited June 4, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[G.I. Joe]

59 minutes ago, Huba said:

Nothing like the bolded part is happening, it would take years, not feasible at all. There is a number of transloading facilities on both sides of the border and those are getting up to speed, but it is by no way sufficient. I didn't check on this topic lately, I'll dig a bit and get back with some info. 

Railways aren't an area I'm overly familiar with, but laying whole new sets of track does not sound feasible to me either. If I'm not mistaken, doesn't the gauge Ukraine uses go all the way back to Tsarist times? It might be Soviet era, though, but I do recall reading that it was deliberately non-standard to make invasions more difficult. If Poland didn't lay Soviet gauge track during the Warsaw Pact days, I have trouble seeing it happening now...

Edited June 4, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[billbindc]

28 minutes ago, asurob said:

Truth....speaking as a smoothie drinking leftist ( :P) in the US it's really the extreme left and right that are vocally outspoken against the US support.  The right wing types are just trying to score points against the president.  The extreme leftys are just as stupid...as always.  It is one of the few things that me and most of my Navy buddies agree about in American politics.  We are all in favor of more weapons to defeat Russian.  

Heh. 

Whenever I hear a phrase like that I imagine how my German 48'er great-great-grandfather who fought in the cornfield all day at Antietam would react. I suspect it would involve a right hook.

[The_MonkeyKing]