How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ultimately, France and Germany remain cautious, and will remain so while the conflict seems stalemated, but whoever is doing their military analysis needs to be fired in Berlin and Paris.

The problem for Germany is that there is a fairly strong Russo-appeasement faction in the SPD, Scholz's party. This is the same problem that Israel also faces, since the current coalition is quite reliant on the Russian Jewish diaspora, and is hence very reluctant to openly act against Russia.

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ding, Ding, Ding, truly Macron and Scholz are in the process of fundamentally cracking the independent European foreign policy movement, when in response to Putin's aggression towards the EU, they act more in concern with national interests than the interest of all EU states, especially ignoring the sensibilities of the EU eastern flank. The U.S, U.K, and Eastern flank will be quite strengthened at least, but certainly Germany and France are being utterly idiotic, short-sighted, they will not earn goodwill with EE like this.

Ultimately, France and Germany remain cautious, and will remain so while the conflict seems stalemated, but whoever is doing their military analysis needs to be fired in Berlin and Paris. Luckily, Germany at least has major parties supporting Ukraine, and Marcon, while being flighty on Ukraine's victory, indicated in the same interview that France seeks to increase military aid to Ukraine, so i don't think Ukraine is being left to dry supplies wise. 

Let me ask yall this question, if Putin felt that he was truly going to lose in Ukraine (say Germany and France had made the same sort of Ukraine victory statements like U.S and U.K), do you think he would go to the negotiation table faster? Or double down? Cause on one hand, i can see him accepting the loss and retreat back to pre-Feb 26 borders, but on the other hand, this man made the decision to invade Ukraine full-scale in the first place. 

Let me propose to you a interesting alternative, imagine Putin believes he cannot win in Ukraine. Imagine instead of striving for more territories, more optimal positioning for the seizure of territories for Novorossiya, continuing to seek victory (some sort of clear victory) in Ukraine, imagine instead he realizes victory is impossible for Russia, and instead of these absolutely destructive offensives at Izyum, Severodonetsk, Popasna, he had instead went for total stalemate. 

Imagine how much improved the Russian position would be had they not done the offensives prior, and how much more strengthened their ability to counter and inflict damage on the Ukrainian armed forces would be oriented purely defensively. 

In that sense, its perfectly fine Putin thinks the West is cracking. Ukraine needs Russia to bleed out in these poorly done, rushed offensives. Putin will keep ordering these offensives since his wish is not stalemate, not yet, Russian attempts to "liberate" the remaining areas of the disputed oblasts in the East (including the entirety of Kherson oblast) indicate to me, that stalemate is not the Russian goal, Russia seeks to ekk out a victory like the total liberation of Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk oblasts, and as long as Russia intends on bleeding itself out for those goals, Ukraine should absolutely strive for maximizing the bloodletting. 

In that sense, Macron's words aren't too important, as long as those SPGs get sent to Ukraine. Thats all that matters now, supplies for Ukraine. 

 

I'm under the impression that having sovereign EU international policies for many people, and very unfortunately it seems that for Macron too, does not first and foremost mean doing what is right/ good for the European Community, but rather doing something different than US and UK are doing. I'd call it juvenile.

 

[FancyCat]

The fact that the General Staff is stating the goal is for the liberation of all of Severodonetsk and not merely just holding part of the city, bolds very poorly for the Russian forces remaining in the city. Should Ukraine achieve full control of the city, after Russia proclaimed its "liberation" and touted it all over social media, the news, it would be immensely demoralizing for Russian forces, as it's a demonstration of Ukrainian counterattack prowess and the utter failure of Russian forces to predict and deal with stout Ukrainian offensives, and a damning view of the remaining Russian offensive power remaining. 

It would also signal to the world, and especially Ukraine's allies, that the views of the UK MoD, U.S, are more accurate than the more cautious views of France and Germany, and those who argue that stalemate is the current foreseeable outlook if not Ukraine's defeat.

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by FancyCat

[Harmon Rabb]

New photos of the M109 in action.

[OldSarge]

42 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

It would also signal to the world, and especially Ukraine's allies, that the views of the UK MoD, U.S, are more accurate than the more cautious views of France and Germany, and those who argue that stalemate is the current foreseeable outlook if not Ukraine's defeat.

 

The UK/US, and don't forget Canada,Australia and New Zealand, most likely have more ISR assets directly employed watching the situation than either France or Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if they knew what Vlad had for dinner.

Edited June 4, 2022 by OldSarge
Members of the Five Eyes

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

The UK/US, and don't forget Canada,Australia and New Zealand, most likely have more ISR assets directly employed watching the situation than either France or Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if they knew what Vlad had for dinner.

I believe it was crow.    Would you like another helping of crow, Vlad?

[slysniper]

thanks for the input on the grain issues, with those type of numbers as to amounts to transport, it is correct to say, no simple answer is going to be available as to the grain getting saved. It sounds like a massive amount of it will be lost.

But It still seems like more effort is needed as to trying to get as much effort as possible as to transporting what they can.

I doubt rail can be adjusted much from what is presently available.

I have no clue what trucking could do as to amounts, but it seems like it is the only other option and that it should be attempted. But again in eurupe, trucking might not be near the size it is here in the states. All I keep thinking is we basically live in a time where hardly anyone alive has ever had to deal with food shortages. I have a feeling that is going to change and the world is in for a shock. 

And if you live anywhere where more food is imported than  grown within its own region for the needs of the people.

You are really in for a challenge, because exports from food rich countries could take on a whole new economic structure.

 

[Huba]

I'll just mention that as of now, there are many reports appearing that either claim coniderable UA advances in Severodonetsk, or just plainly claim inform it was fully retaken. Nothing official yet, but fingers crossed! 

[dan/california]

There are only two ways to save that grain, and sadly neither of them is very likely. Either Ukraine just completely surrenders. Or NATO realizes that the world food situation truly critical, and tells Russia that Odessa is open and ANY attempt to interfere will result in overwhelming consequences. The first case of interference results in the complete obliteration of the Black Sea Fleet. The second case of interference results in the complete obliteration of all even vaguely military infrastructure in Crimea, starting with the Port of Sebastopol. The third attempt to interfere Nato simply joins the war in Ukraine with maximum violence. Neither of these is likely, so the third world is going to have a bad couple of years.

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'll just mention that as of now, there are many reports appearing that either claim coniderable UA advances in Severodonetsk, or just plainly claim inform it was fully retaken. Nothing official yet, but fingers crossed! 

This is a major test.  If Russia can not stop a Ukrainian advance in an urban area that they've been fighting to take for at least 3 months AND marked as Priority #1, well, let's just say this does not bode well for what is to come

Ukraine has had 8 years to learn how to play the war PR game and it shows.  As one might expect, they put out the most positive take on the war's progress.  However, they also admit when they lose ground and when things are tough.  When they announce positive things they are generally truthful and don't exaggerate (much).  They have also been extremely tight lipped about their intentions.  Which means, when Ukraine says they plan to retake all of Severodonetsk, I think there's a really good chance they will.  In fact, I would say there's a good chance they almost already have.

Boy, what a PR disaster for Russia.  Unlike Ukraine, they don't manage expectations very well

Steve

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Boy, what a PR disaster for Russia.  Unlike Ukraine, they don't manage expectations very well

Steve

nah, this was just like Kiev, a feint to draw off resources for their real goal which is.. umm..  snake island?

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Battlefront.com]

When people ponder Ukraine's ability to do a big counter offensive I've been saying they don't need one.  All they need to do is continually pick and choose weak points to smash them.  One at a time is fine, though more is better as long as Ukraine doesn't get over confident and provide Russia with an opportunity to inflict pain. 

Russia simply can not keep this war going "as is" if it is losing ground and forces, even a little at a time, on a continual basis. 

Steve

[OldSarge]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When people ponder Ukraine's ability to do a big counter offensive I've been saying they don't need one.  All they need to do is continually pick and choose weak points to smash them.  One at a time is fine, though more is better as long as Ukraine doesn't get over confident and provide Russia with an opportunity to inflict pain. 

Russia simply can not keep this war going "as is" if it is losing ground and forces, even a little at a time, on a continual basis. 

Steve

Death by a thousand paper cuts works pretty well, while not risking the majority of the attacker's forces. As long as the UA preserves its core forces it can play 'Rope-A-Dope' for a very long time.

Edited June 5, 2022 by OldSarge

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, OldSarge said:

The UK/US, and don't forget Canada,Australia and New Zealand, most likely have more ISR assets directly employed watching the situation than either France or Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if they knew what Vlad had for dinner.

Indeed...

"And knowing is half the battle!"

 

 

(I had to say it. )

[G.I. Joe]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When people ponder Ukraine's ability to do a big counter offensive I've been saying they don't need one.  All they need to do is continually pick and choose weak points to smash them.  One at a time is fine, though more is better as long as Ukraine doesn't get over confident and provide Russia with an opportunity to inflict pain. 

Russia simply can not keep this war going "as is" if it is losing ground and forces, even a little at a time, on a continual basis. 

Steve

Definitely, reading your earlier post made me think, and not for the first time, that Ukraine may have solved the problem of conventional mass in this conflict...with a work-around.

 

[dan/california]

Just found this guy, and the detail on this map is off the charts, does anybody have an opinion if it has any bearing on reality? Because my guess is that the Russian commander is not working with a picture this good. Unless he is using this map, too.

[dan/california]

Liked this video, too.

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Liked this video, too.

 

nice depiction of something that had been confusing me early in the war.  There were sooooo many abandoned RU vehicles and I thought "why wouldn't they drive away w at least some armor between them and the UKR small arms".  Someone of the forum said it was because they are terrified so ATGMs and artillery targeting the vehicles.  And here's some nice proof.  Simply running away instead of reversing and going back.  I suppose the other nice bit of this is they can go back and say their vehicles were damaged/mobility-killed which might keep the crew out of the next few missions as they wait for some ancient replacement vehicle.

[chrisl]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

nice depiction of something that had been confusing me early in the war.  There were sooooo many abandoned RU vehicles and I thought "why wouldn't they drive away w at least some armor between them and the UKR small arms".  Someone of the forum said it was because they are terrified so ATGMs and artillery targeting the vehicles.  And here's some nice proof.  Simply running away instead of reversing and going back.  I suppose the other nice bit of this is they can go back and say their vehicles were damaged/mobility-killed which might keep the crew out of the next few missions as they wait for some ancient replacement vehicle.

They can't outrun an ATGM by reversing and going back - if one's in the air already they have less than 20 seconds to get out of the IFV.  The rocket will stay targeted on the vehicle if it moves, but it isn't going to follow them once they're out, and it at least gives them an opportunity to try to get captured rather than incinerated.

[Sequoia]

I'm mostly ignorant on the subject, but I do know there is such a thing as dual gauge lines. For most of the route, you just put down another rail 4 inches over on an existing track bed.  Any one know if this is feasible as a temporary solution?

 

[Machor]

MLRS attack on Donetsk city centre - some replies suggest it may be a Russian provocation:

The aftermath:

 

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

I'm mostly ignorant on the subject, but I do know there is such a thing as dual gauge lines. For most of the route, you just put down another rail 4 inches over on an existing track bed.  Any one know if this is feasible as a temporary solution?

 

Near transition areas, probably, but there's more than just the rail gauge. If the standard dimensions of the rolling stock are different then you might run the risk of collisions with other trains or even parts of tunnels, especially in turns, or load bearing problems on bridges.  Not to mention needing to get ahold of and lay that much extra steel rail at a time when transportation systems have been completely messed up for a couple years.

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Machor said:

MLRS attack on Donetsk city centre - some replies suggest it may be a Russian provocation:

The aftermath:

 

The Ukrainians have better uses for every last rocket than randomly shelling Donetsk. Absolutely anywhere in the Russian bulge around Popsana comes immediately to mind. There would be at least a hundred other targets in front of this one, even if it wasn't idiotic from propaganda standpoint. I would bet damned near anything this is the Russians trying to gin up one last gasp of opposition to giving the Ukrainians HIMARS/M270.  

Edit, And I would be shocked if the Pentagon can't tell exactly where the rockets came from in three redundant ways.

Edited June 5, 2022 by dan/california

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

When people ponder Ukraine's ability to do a big counter offensive I've been saying they don't need one.  All they need to do is continually pick and choose weak points to smash them.  One at a time is fine, though more is better as long as Ukraine doesn't get over confident and provide Russia with an opportunity to inflict pain. 

Russia simply can not keep this war going "as is" if it is losing ground and forces, even a little at a time, on a continual basis. 

Steve

You put forth this idea quite a ways back in this thread and it does have it's merits. This definitely works, but it is a long drawn out process and time is a double edged sword. I think most of us agree that time is against the RA but the longer it takes to defeat them the longer they get to pound the UA with their arty and air. That seems to be the biggest threat to the UA personnel and a war of attrition, even though in the end the UA wins, it means a lot more losses for them as well. Plus it basically just pushes them back to their borders instead of destroying them.

If the UA can even do smaller pockets on the RA the results can be exponentially better for the same commitment of power. The Kremlin can spin a lot of things but the wholesale destruction or capture of a couple brigades would be priceless for the UA and could be the chance at stimulating a collapse.