How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ultradave]

7 hours ago, Splinty said:

He's right tho. But I'm a former NCO myself. So.....

I was an officer, but if I got paid for every time I said "What do you think, Sergeant Sam?" I'd be rich. (SSG and then later SFC Samarripa). He was my first team sgt as a new 2LT and then again years later as a CPT. He taught me a lot and I taught him that he could always be straight with me - give me the best advice he had, even when I don't ask for it. 

IMO as an officer it's just extremely foolish to not be this way. We worked well together and I'll always owe him. 

Dave

[Huba]

2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Here is something I posted elsewhere on Saturday (so this is definitely no lightning war) ... which remains relevant in the light of the activity just reported in Zarichne and Yampil.  Zarichne is just north of Torske in the schematic below and Zampil is two boxes down from Torske and one to the right.

Here's what I wrote then ...

Activity in the area of Torske is quite interesting.  Should it be captured, it offers a lot of possibilities for the Russians with a series of bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River.  Even if the bridges are dropped, there are also a number of areas that could be bridged with tactical bridging with river widths in some places just shy of 40m (although the average is approaching 90m) which is bridgeable by a TMM set (40m) (Bde/Regt asset).  The banks in many areas also look from the imagery to be suitable to launch tactical bridging and subsequently ferry sites or larger pontoon bridging.  Once south of the river, the ground offers at least a couple of BTG/battalion-sized avenues of approach to hook west towards Slovyansk.  These are shown as red arrows on the schematic below with the black boxed areas as fairly coarse grained NAIs designed to find, track and confirm likely COAs.  Crossing in this area is certainly a better option than trying to grind through Lyman, then the wooded feature beyond before attempting a river crossing in the area of grid square 37U DQ 08 19.

So I was thinking more or less along those lines too some time ago

On 4/19/2022 at 1:15 AM, Huba said:

 

Looks like between Lyman and Sloviansk there's only one road/ railway line through the forests and over the river. With UA advantage in infantry it does not look good.

I was wondering if Russians could bypass Sloviansk and just got north of it through the forests. There are few roads there, if they captured them, and be prepared to bridge the river (quite narrow there) with the rest of plan going more or less as Steve has proposed. Their flank from the side of Sloviansk would be protected by forest and river, and after emerging from the forests they could proceed through Siversk to Bakhmut. Does that make sense? Instead of converging on Sloviansk, the two phase one pincers would converge on Lyman and then proceeded south-east. 

I know they can't advance through those forests, but the same was said about Ardennes in 1940. 

But after some time passed I reconsidered. First, upon the closer inspection, the approaches to the river there are really, really difficult. The old riverbeds cross the land, channeling the movements. This kind of land tends to be really swampy ( you can see that there are not many fields there, it's mostly meadows cause flooding happens too often). There are only 1 or 2 approaches to the river good enough for traffic (along roads/ railway basically).

Russians don't have a good track record of tactical bridging under fire. There were few cases where they succeeded (West of Kyiv, but those were relatively far from enemy lines, and around Izyum, which took them more then a month to manage, with much smaller opposition). Also since 2 months they didn't try to do just west of Rubizhne, which would be a way to dislodge all the defence there.

We'll see of course, but I think that as long as Ukrainians are able to keep their own guns around Siversk they will be able to keep the potential crossing spots quite safe - Russian artillery on the other hand will have hard time to deploy inside or south off of the forest belt (Yampil area) due to constraining terrain and will have range disadvantage if located north of it around Zarichne.

Anyway, this is my amateur take on this.

Edited April 27, 2022 by Huba

[evilcommie]

We seem to be seeing less UKR drone video these days. I guess the Russian’s with their shortened supply lines and decreased in-competence figured out how to reduce their effectiveness.  Based on the casualty videos that are leaking out. I would think its starting more like a even 1 to 1 trade between the Russian and Ukraine now. 
 

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

Sorry if I'm a little late (I needed a little rest).
JonS was quick and provided a very comprehensive response.
I'll try not to go too deep into the subject myself. Honestly, I don't know too much about modern American artillery systems (at least as much as I know about French ones).

My previous messages focused mainly on the level of the gun (platoon max) and its crew but there are also other very important levels to take into account such as the command post of the battery or the higher combined arms echelons.

I think the difficulty is mainly on the change of doctrine (Eastern vs Western) and the way the material is used.

I give an example: on the French 120mm mortar (also on the 155mm TRF-1, the most comparable with the M777 I think) we use a goniometer (the sight in the artillery) with 2 plates (the top is red for the orientation of the gun with respect to the north ; the bottom is black for the direction (its aim) where the gun should fire) and uses a graduation in mils (6400 mils = 360 degrees). In Afghanistan, we were near a battery of 122mm D-30 (Kandak-34 if memory serves). I remember they used them, a single-platen goniometer and orientation in degrees, not mils. They were aiming using only one stake when we were using two. I'm sorry I didn't dig deeper into the subject, but I didn't trust the ANA soldiers too much. The 122mm D-30 have shell casings while for the 155mm TRF-1, there are none because they disintegrate while burning.
Another example is the WW2 British artillery which also used a single pan goniometer, degree orientation and two stakes for aiming (if memory serves)
The advantage of the CAESAR is that it is semi-automated. Even if you don't understand artillery (I speak for the aimer), you can use it as long as your commander and higher echelons know their job. I can only assume the same for the M777 (a US gunner will know better than me).

To sum up, a crew that already knows the artillery will become familiar much more easily with a new piece and the difficulty will be to adapt to a new organization or way of using the weapon. This is all just my opinion.

For those who are interested in artillery, here is an excellent very very complete site on British artillery of the second world war (you can learn artillery basics) :
https://nigelef.tripod.com/maindoc.htm

The gun laying you describe is very similar to what the US used prior to the advent of GPS and lots of computerized fire control. 2 stakes set out, sight on the gun, theodolite used by the XO to the gun to initially survey in each gun (a surveyor's transit, essentially), and all deflections in mils. My experience predates all the golly-gee whiz bang stuff which no doubt makes it easier.

And from what I've seen, our artillery still needs to be proficient in doing things that way in case all the electronics die.

US 155 uses powder bags, (separately loading ammo), the smaller 105mm has cased ammo but I haven't heard of sending any of those.

Dave

[LongLeftFlank]

9 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

I was an officer, but if I got paid for every time I said "What do you think, Sergeant Sam?" I'd be rich.... 

IMO as an officer it's just extremely foolish to not be this way. We worked well together and I'll always owe him. 

Dave

I always have this clip in the back of my mind when I'm on a range....

[LongLeftFlank]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukrainian soldiers captured near Yampil, which is just southeast of Lyman.  Supposedly from 79th Airmobile Brigade, if I'm reading this correctly.

Steve

 

 

The fall of Yampil, and a [possible] prisoner 'bag' of UKR frontline troops, is disquieting, not just for the reasons @Combatintman and @Huba cite above.

This may be the first time since the (surprise) opening of the war that the Russians have successfully executed a battalion scale flanking operation that the UA didn't either bushwack, block or evade.

In spite of all the blunders, we all kind of knew their regular units were going to get tactically 'smarter' over time. I think they're starting to show it now.

'Muddy guys' free-ranging over the steppes with rockets seems like it is no longer going to confound the battlespace the way it has to date.

....So the pressure is on Ukraine now to move itself swiftly to the next level of combined arms warfare that their enemy can't handle.

Edited April 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

35 minutes ago, evilcommie said:

We seem to be seeing less UKR drone video these days. I guess the Russian’s with their shortened supply lines and decreased in-competence figured out how to reduce their effectiveness.  Based on the casualty videos that are leaking out. I would think its starting more like a even 1 to 1 trade between the Russian and Ukraine now. 
 

I'd strongly doubt that; videos, or counts thereof, aren't the tiniest bit 'quantitative' or indicative as to 'who's winning' or 'who's bleeding'.

But the Russians may be getting better at killing Ukrainian soldiers, yes, per my prior....

Edited April 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Combatintman]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The fall of Yampil, and a prisoner 'bag' of UKR frontline troops, is disquieting, not just for the reasons @Combatintman and @Huba cite above.

This may be the first time since the (surprise) opening of the war that the Russians have actually executed a battalion scale flanking operation.

In spite of all the blunders, we all kind of knew their regular units were going to get tactically 'smarter' over time. I think they're starting to show it now.

'Muddy guys' free-ranging over the steppes with rockets is no longer going to confound the battlespace the way it has to date.

....So the pressure is on Ukraine now to move itself swiftly to the next level of combined arms warfare that their enemy can't handle.

79 Bde is plausible, UAWar has it slightly further west but Jomini of the West has it at Zolotarivka.  The latter source places 128 Mtn Bde closer to Zampil though - if that is correct then the PWs should be from that formation.

[Huba]

I'd think that all UA positions north of Siversky Donets were more or less temporary and would be given away at some point. In fact I expected that Ukrainians will be pushed out of the open land in north to the forests instantly, then resist there while finally fall back behind the river which will be the main defense line. This has happened in the east, but on the west UA still holds their positions.

As you mentioned @LongLeftFlank, potential  encirclement of UA forces north of Donets would be a catastrophe, but as long as Lyman is in Ukrainian hands, forces from Lozove should have a way to retreat. This I think will happen quite soon.

I wonder though if Russians will try to force their way through the Donets. After their clear Lyman and reach the river, they will have a great defensive position, with fully controlled LOCs behind it, and should be able to move their forces to Izyum to reinforce the push from there. This is the Russian plan in my opinion, and that's also  why Ukrainians stick to defending those unfavorable positions in the north.

Edited April 27, 2022 by Huba

[c3k]

18 hours ago, keas66 said:

Interesting discussion on thedrive about difficulties  manufacturing additional stingers due to  outdated electronic components in original design  :

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/raytheon-is-unable-to-make-stinger-anti-aircraft-missiles-quickly-enough

Interesting article.

It's obvious that the US military has an arrogance in their approach to air defense, but I didn't realize it was this bad. No new Stingers produced in 18 years? 

The assumption seems to be that the USAF will be given enough operational flexibility to be able to defend the airspace, and Patriots can shoot down any leakers?

I'd think that this should be a wake-up call that the US Army needs a Manpad. Something that will be as revolutionary to local air defense as the Javelin has been to anti-armor. 

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, Kinophile said:

What vehicles are you expecting them to receive? BMP/BTRs? Or NATO types?

Would this mean the more experienced, reliable TDF units would get upgraded/incorporated to Regular Army?

All types of armor, which can drive ) BRDM-2 even in version of BRDM-2L with 7 seats, designed specially for motorized infantry units armament is terrible tight tin can (initially it was designed for 4 comfort seats only!), so even old M113 will be a penthouse in comparison with it 

TDF is already a part of army. They are not irregulars or partisans. Each TD battalion has own TO&E and each TD battalion is a part of TD brigade. TDF units by our doctrine shouldn't have IFVs or APCs, but in the future it was planned to equip some units of battalins with armored cars like "Novator" or like it  

Edited April 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

Ukrainian Mig-29 take-off during artillery. No date/location.

https://i.imgur.com/ovtmvb7.mp4

Edited April 27, 2022 by Kraft

[Taranis]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'd think that all UA positions north of Siversky Donets were more or less temporary and would be given away at some point. In fact I expected that Ukrainians will be pushed out of the open land in north to the forests instantly, then resist there while finally fall back behind the river which will be the main defense line. This has happened in the east, but on the west UA still holds their positions.

As you mentioned @LongLeftFlank, potential  encirclement of UA forces north of Donets would be a catastrophe, but as long as Lyman is in Ukrainian hands, forces from Lozove should have a way to retreat. This I think will happen quite soon.

I wonder though if Russians will try to force their way through the Donets. After their clear Lyman and reach the river, they will have a great defensive position, with fully controlled LOCs behind it, and should be able to move their forces to Izyum to reinforce the push from there. This is the Russian plan in my opinion, and that's also Ukrainians stick to defending those unfavorable positions in the north.

Yes, good synthesis here.

1. I suspect that in spite of the  hyperventilating babushka mob, Putin has now internalised that Ukraine does Not Want To Be Ruled From Moscow, and that pursuing that project is not worth the candle. He'll have his hands full keeping Belarus in his orbit as it is.

2. Therefore, Putin and Stavka want to get out of this war asap while they still hold parts of Ukraine, so they can declare 'victory' and then address their many defects, while accepting Russia's semi-isolation as a Chinese resource warehouse.

3. To do that, the RA must secure a defensible set of cease fire lines that the Ukrainians would find it costly to retake. The lines you describe could well be part of that boundary. Yes, they'd love to take more, but I think they will settle for what they can keep.

And forcing UA 57th Bde. to vacate that bulge east of Izyum would be extremely helpful along those lines.

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Bearstronaut]

48 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I always have this clip in the back of my mind when I'm on a range....

I actually did this a couple years ago in Korea. Didn’t throw brass at the LT and I was only an E5 but I chewed him out pretty good. 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[c3k]

14 hours ago, Kraft said:

Su-25 and I kind of doubt its ukrainian, is possible but unlikely.

Both are throwing flares, afraid of IR missiles, which over ukrainian soil the Ukr jet doesnt have to worry about if it were on the tail of the rus plane. 

LOL... Air Defense motto: "If it flies, it dies."   So, yeah, UKR should worry about a possible fratricide launch.

[c3k]

14 hours ago, akd said:

That does not look like a dogfight.  Looks like Su-25s “lofting” unguided rockets from behind friendly lines.   You can tell the first jet has already delivered its attack when the video starts (smoke from both rockets and flares is hanging in the air) and it is followed by second doing the same attack maneuver (pull nose up, lob rockets and then dump flares while getting back down low as quick as possible).  Maybe what is causing confusion is how smoky these older Soviet jet engines are when they go full throttle to bug out?  Almost looks like one is on fire.

If Russian Su-25s, then this shows that even their tactical jets are afraid to cross over front lines to deliver attacks (Russian helicopters have been using such “flying MLRS” tactics extensively since war moved to the East).

I'm in total agreement.

There is nothing in either video that remotely suggests a dogfight or a loss of aircraft.

[c3k]

14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR hit large ammunition storage in Irmino, Luhansk oblast, occupied since 2014. Locals say not only ammunitions was there, but SP-howitzers too.

Explosions is continuing to this time, when the night came. 

 

^^^

As I stated upstream, the introduction of long-range, precision fires systems will create a change in the force equation. This change will make for operational space/flexibility for Ukraine.

When 150km+ systems, capable of a few meters of accuracy, with ~100kg+ warheads, are in-theater and joined with saturation ISR coverage, a lot of previously safe Russian targets will end up getting destroyed.

[Kinophile]

I'm expecting the Rus offensive to "power up"  over this week. They've done their costly recon-by-btg-losses phase and now must have an idea where they can push hard.

Rus artillery seems to be the primary forming asset for the battle, which will dictate the pace.

UKR needs to start killing a lot more high level RUS c&c asap.

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

FSB Lt. Col. Aleksey Kryukov, possibly FSB Special Purpose Center Alfa group:

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. I suspect that in spite of the  hyperventilating babushka mob, Putin has now internalised that Ukraine does Not Want To Be Ruled From Moscow, and that pursuing that project is not worth the candle. He'll have his hands full keeping Belarus in his orbit as it is.

That's not how russians work. Unless they get at least Kyiv - it will never be over. Sure having additional land that actually can have things grown, unlike the swampy, eternal winter homeland, is better than how it was before - but while Ukraine exists - it's a direct threat to russian mythology that holds the empire together.

So it won't be over. And hence why there can't be any ceasefire. Because they will return.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

So it won't be over. And hence why there can't be any ceasefire. Because they will return.

True it is like floating sh#t no matter how many times you flush it will resurface. Using colorful language won't get the message across I am afraid. Divide et impera break up the Russian federation in truly independent states where people can make their own decisions.

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Bearstronaut said:

I actually did this a couple years ago in Korea. Didn’t throw brass at the LT and I was only an E5 but I chewed him out pretty good. 

The range officer can chew on anyone   And that saves lives.

[Huba]

That's good news. Maybe UA will get some use from those