How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The Steppenwulf]

44 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

"Apr 14 1200 UTC UPDATE: According to Russian official statements issued by MoD, MOSKVA is still afloat, attempts to tow cruiser to Naval base in Crimea are under way. All crew evacuated to other Navy ships, says MoD. Ukraine insists cruiser sank or sinking. A post in social nets, posted obviously, by seaman, claims 54 MOSKVA crew were rescued by nearby Turkish tanker (there is Turkish tanker nearby, according to AIS data). A mess of information, misinformation and disinformation, of truth and fakes. "

This was the first statement they put out at midday and was in contradiction to reports from UKR that it had already sunk. Then there was a MoD update later in the afternoon admitting it had finally sunk.

The earlier statement if untrue was probably put out with intention to not cause panic amongst members of public with relatives and friends on board, it's not yet sunk gives the impression that there was time to evacuate, all was not lost.

Remember that the media is trying to do its best to hide the true number of casualties in this conflict. "It went down in 7 minutes" is not in keeping with this media strategy.    

Edited April 14, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[TheVulture]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Happy Easter weekend?...

I believe that Easter for the eastern orthodox denominations is the 24th April this year,  a week later than protestant and Roman Catholic. So not Easter weekend in Ukraine or Russia.

[akd]

48 minutes ago, womble said:

Something that's puzzled me about the Moskva getting hit: where was the rest of her task force, specifically the escorts...? Isn't the point of a modern naval task force to provide mutually supporting overlapping fields of defensive fire to protect the assets that project force?

What role does the Slava class fulfill? It's got more ASM than a Ticonderoga, but even though it looks like it's meant to provide substantial AD capabilities, it's not in the same class as an Aegis platform... Is it a defensive "strongpoint" for the TF, or is that secondary to its Vulkan tubes?

 

I think the Admiral Essen was also operating in the same area, but they may have been positioned to maximize the AD umbrella they were providing for land forces, rather than for each other. Not sure any of the other BSF ships matter.

[Probus]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is difficult to find new ways to humiliate Russia,

I don't know if you meant for that to be funny, but +1.

[chuckdyke]

New Game 'Black Sea Battleship.' 

[Gpig]

From the BBC

Explosions reported in Kyiv

Several loud explosions have been heard in Kyiv in the past few minutes.

Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko wrote on Twitter that she heard three explosions "one after the other".

"The air raid warning has been on for an hour. Most likely #putin gone livid because of the #Moskva sinking," she added, referring to the reported sinking of a Russian warship.

One eyewitness told a BBC correspondent that the explosions took place in the south-west of the Ukrainian capital.

Explosions have also been reported in the southern city of Kherson, according to Ukrainian media.

It comes after Russia threatened on Wednesday to strike Ukraine's command centres after claiming that Ukraine had attacked Russian territory.

 

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I believe that Easter for the eastern orthodox denominations is the 24th April this year,  a week later than protestant and Roman Catholic. So not Easter weekend in Ukraine or Russia.

You are correct. Sneaky invention that gregorian calender. It slipped to me that orthodox christs are still on good ol julian calender. 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Gpig said:

From the BBC

Explosions reported in Kyiv

Several loud explosions have been heard in Kyiv in the past few minutes.

Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko wrote on Twitter that she heard three explosions "one after the other".

"The air raid warning has been on for an hour. Most likely #putin gone livid because of the #Moskva sinking," she added, referring to the reported sinking of a Russian warship.

One eyewitness told a BBC correspondent that the explosions took place in the south-west of the Ukrainian capital.

Explosions have also been reported in the southern city of Kherson, according to Ukrainian media.

It comes after Russia threatened on Wednesday to strike Ukraine's command centres after claiming that Ukraine had attacked Russian territory.

 

well, if they knew where UKR command posts were they would be hitting them already.  What a joke!  As if UKR is causing provocations to which RU must respond.  There's just no word for it except Chutzpah.

[Ultradave]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is a good thought I think. UA said that Moskva was hit by 2 missiles, not that they only launched 2 against a whole group of ships. Pure speculation of course, but it would make sense to launch as big a strike as possible.

This is a good point. Normally you would expect a number of missiles to be able to overwhelm the defenses of a ship like Moskva.  FWIW, CMO lists for each ship the number of Harpoon equivalents it would take. Moskva lists 40. Basically that's supposed to be enough to overwhelm the air defenses and cause enough damage to sink or render it ineffective. 

Now, of course, if the reports about the radar only being able to be used in 180deg and the drone being used to decoy the radar, that number would not have much bearing. If you can't target the incoming missiles only a few are going to be enough.

As far as the 54 survivors, could it be a case of the Turkish freighter announcing that's what they picked up, but the Russians who may or may not have picked up more, just haven't said anything?

Dave

[sburke]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Not a KIA, but out of business anyways...

 

 

hmm might have to break out the sacked section to separate those actually arrested.

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

I’m surprised not more is being discussed on the Matrix boards.

CMO is a good sim. The database is extensive. Covers air as well as naval aspects and like CM a professional version is used for training.

Based off the game Harpoon. I bought my first PC just to play Harpoon. 

Someone has already use CMO to simulate the Moskva's demise.

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1iS4y1w7CB?spm_id_from=444.41.list.card_archive.click

The problem is, we don't know too much about what happened last night, a lot of soft factors are missing. Plus the CMO unit's godlike reaction time, inadequate simulation on fatigue, equipment overheat. This makes Moskva an invincible fortress in CMO

 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Yes this is true, however those Javelins will have beautiful sight lines.  I am not sure open terrain is good news for the RA if the UA can stay ahead of them.

+1, besides Javelin, it seems like RA cannot achieve any superior in the artillery exchanges with UA.  That would make them much more vulnerable in the open terrain. The UAV can easily spot their formation. 

[Huba]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Yes this is true, however those Javelins will have beautiful sight lines.  I am not sure open terrain is good news for the RA if the UA can stay ahead of them.

It was mentioned many times for sure, but when you take a look at how those "good tank country" plains of eastern Ukraine really look, it turns out they are cut by tree lines ( or at least shrub lines)into very small squares, with lines of sight usually extending no more then a few hundred meters, up to 1 km; and this pattern is repeated across the whole rural countryside.

It's not an open steppe at all. The ancient tradition of planting trees along every road, event the dirt ones separating one wheat field from another is strong in Eastern Europe. It's great at preventing dustbowls, provides shelter from the sun, supports biodiversity etc. And absolutely messes with your ability to see and engage targets at long range 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

Nice internal view of Kontakt-5 module:

The new Night Witches:

 

[db_zero]

31 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Someone has already use CMO to simulate the Moskva's demise.

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1iS4y1w7CB?spm_id_from=444.41.list.card_archive.click

The problem is, we don't know too much about what happened last night, a lot of soft factors are missing. Plus the CMO unit's godlike reaction time, inadequate simulation on fatigue, equipment overheat. This makes Moskva an invincible fortress in CMO

 

What experience level did he set Moskva at?

We definitely don’t know all the fact and may never know in our lifetimes.

Set up CMO with the Moskva and then set up with US AWACS, F-18 Wild Weasels and other assets set to a strictly “neutral” role and then try with just Ukrainian assets without US/NATO assets and see what results are.

Edited April 15, 2022 by db_zero

[The_Capt]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

It was mentioned many times for sure, but when you take a look at how those "good tank country" plains of eastern Ukraine really look, it turns out they are cut by tree lines ( or at least shrub lines)into very small squares, with lines of sight usually extending no more then a few hundred meters, up to 1 km; and this pattern is repeated across the whole rural countryside.

It's not an open steppe at all. The ancient tradition of planting trees along every road, event the dirt ones separating one wheat field from another is strong in Eastern Europe. It's great at preventing dustbowls, provides shelter from the sun, supports biodiversity etc. And absolutely messes with your ability to see and engage targets at long range 

 

So cut fields of fire.  I would put money on the bar that the Russians are dumb enough to drive right through them.

Oh and that sort of closed rectangles is perfect for shorter range system like NLAW.  My point being that wide open does not suddenly make the tank supreme unless it can actually manoeuvre.  And the RA is not really setting the bar on that so far.

Edited April 15, 2022 by The_Capt

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

Nice!  There aren't any good multiplayer games like Harpoon, are there?  

I played harpoon multiplayer twice (at least I think it was Harpoon. Pretty sure it was). It was a blast, but lenghty and buggy back then.

Nothing I know of at the moment that simulates modern Naval/Air combat like Harpoon/CMO.

There is IKE for CMO, but I haven’t tried it yet and it not seemlessly integrated into CMO.

[sross112]

There have been a couple references to why the RA didn't take out the bridges over the Dnepr on day 1. Personally I think it was because they planned a swift 3 day war and it was over. They didn't want to destroy infrastructure that they would need in the long run. I think the real question is why they are standing over 6 weeks later. I can only think of two reasons:

1. the usual - incompetence
2. The UA had prepositioned enough stocks east of the Dnepr prior to the conflict that they aren't considered a high priority for affecting ground operations in the Donbas. 

My gut says it is number 1 but number 2 is plausible.

[sross112]

Does anyone know the code name for the Russian invasion? If it hasn't been named yet I vote to call it Operation Dumpster Fire. That should even work for Battlefront in a couple years when they put out a new game covering the war it can be CMDF.  

[Huba]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

So cut fields of fire.  I would put money on the bar that the Russians are dumb enough to drive right through them

It looks like perfect Javelin country. Distances between lines of concealment are just long enough for most of infantry weapons to be largely ineffective at suppressing enemy fighters, yet close enough so you can engage vehicles with Javelins/ NLAWs as soon as those become visible. 
I'd think that ideally you'd like to bombard every next treeline (or two) with indirect fire before you consider advancing to it through open field. Sound quite time consuming, hard to keep your momentum this way.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, sross112 said:

There have been a couple references to why the RA didn't take out the bridges over the Dnepr on day 1. Personally I think it was because they planned a swift 3 day war and it was over. They didn't want to destroy infrastructure that they would need in the long run. I think the real question is why they are standing over 6 weeks later. I can only think of two reasons:

1. the usual - incompetence
2. The UA had prepositioned enough stocks east of the Dnepr prior to the conflict that they aren't considered a high priority for affecting ground operations in the Donbas. 

My gut says it is number 1 but number 2 is plausible.

The third option is that at that point Russians don't have enough assets to make enough damage for it to be worth it. It would take probably like 100 Kalibrs/ Iskanders (guessing, for sure a lot) to really do enough damage. Then you have to keep shooting as repairs are being done. Those bridges were mostly built in Soviet times with idea that they might take a hit or two in case of war and should be easily repairable.

Also some of those are on dams, both difficult targets an politically risky.

[dan/california]

Another flawless Russian combat engineering evolution. I so hope tomorrow we get the after from a Ukrainian artillery drone.

Edited April 15, 2022 by dan/california
Posting video as sensitive, it isn't ,pure comedy

[Chibot Mk IX]

26 minutes ago, db_zero said:

What experience level did he set Moskva at?

Looks like regular, the testing scenario also incorrectly put the scenario at day time, clear weather condition. 

I did a testing myself. Even with correct parameter, night time, heavy rain , sea state 5, a novice Moskva can easily defeat a salvo of 16 subsonic Harpoonski.

An EMCON D Moskva can detect the ASM at 16nm away and begin the engagement at 12nm away.

An EMCON A Moskva first detect ASM at 10nm away , the ASM turn on the weapon seeker radar there, broadcast their presence to Moskva . With a 18 seconds OODA cool down SAM left the tube at 7nm away. Most of ASM will be intercepted.

 

But, there is one trick to make a two Harpoonski strike successfully penetrate a radar silence Moskva's defense. Don't use automatic fire. Use BoL fire.  First do a calculation to predict where the Moskva will be when the ASM reach that area. Mark a point on the map then make the ASM aim at that point , in BOL mode ASM will turn on their radar there. It is supposed to be somewhere very close to Moskva.    They will hit the Moskva before her OODA cool down.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Chibot Mk IX

[Kinophile]

51 minutes ago, sburke said:

hmm might have to break out the sacked section to separate those actually arrested.

 

I do have a "fired" coloring.

Finally gonna get to stuff this eve. I had the Moskva on the invasion force out of a sense of completeness and, I swear to god, I said to myself - "Bit silly having it here, UKR don't have the means to take it out..."

So nice to be proved wrong.

[akd]

Oh boy!

 

[Commanderski]

2 hours ago, womble said:

And the other thing about the Moskva's TF companions: why was a "passing Turkish tanker" even necessary? Surely the TF would be best-placed to either take crew off the burning ship, or pick up the skeleton crew managing the tow from on board once they abandon ship when it's clear she's past saving.

Once the Moskva got hit all the other ships move out another 20km to get out of range.