How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin gave his troops 3 days worth of supply.  Why would he even have considered stockpiling chips?  And which chips?  They aren't universal.  I really wish folks would stop bandying around this expression as if they are a plug and play component that can be used in anything.  It hurts my brain.

Of course chips are not universal! But I assume the Russians know what kind of special components they need to build their own cruise missiles etc.

[Kinophile]

Interesting take, Photon. 

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Of course chips are not universal! But I assume the Russians know what kind of special components they need to build their own cruise missiles etc.

sure but that isn't the only military hardware requiring chips and if you are thinking this is a short walk over war why would you prioritize cruise missiles?  The idea that EVERY OTHER level of this plan was 3 days and done, but somehow this aspect they planned for long term doesn't make any sense.

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

sure but that isn't the only military hardware requiring chips and if you are thinking this is a short walk over war why would you prioritize cruise missiles?  The idea that EVERY OTHER level of this plan was 3 days and done, but somehow this aspect they planned for long term doesn't make any sense.

They might have thought the war itself would be quick, but that they might face sanctions for much longer?

It's of course also possible that they are just incompetent all the way through.

[panzermartin]

32 minutes ago, sburke said:

as noted above, chips aren't like sending screws.  They are far more specific.  So no it isn't like China can raid the Apple factory and say here are a bunch Vlad.  On top of that as others have noted it is highly unlikely China is going to spare much of anything for Vlad.  I don't think China really wants to expend any effort on this.  They see the handwriting on the wall and know that what they want from Russia can be gotten a  lot easier if Russia fails.  They would also like this to end.  The hyper activity in the West of rearming and sanctions is an uncomfortable situation for Xi.  Russia as a  military ally is completely off the table now.  This war has shown how little Xi can relay on them as an effective partner.

Yes they are specific of course, but from all the nations that could help, China with their huge manufacturing capabilities and more importantly the shared military technology of decades on Soviet weaponry are the ideal partner Russia could ask for if things go down the long way. They can easily copy anything. What's inside Xi mind is hard to decode precisely. If Russia asks, it will be hard for them to say no anyway. I see more of a manpower problem for Russia than hardware to be honest if they continue to treat this war less than the total war it actually is. 

[Huba]

And now for something completely different: partisans! According to official Ukrainian sources, since the occupation of Melitopol started a month ago, 70 soldiers of the occupying forces were stabbed or shot on patrols. I wouldn't hang to this particular number very much, it might be inflated, but it gives some idea about how nice it would be for the occupying forces, even if they managed to roll all the way to the Polish border. Note that are around Melitopol was taken quite early, territorial forces didn't manage to form up properly there. I'd expect that if Russian take significant ground anywhere now, the stay-behind forces will give them much bigger headache. 
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/13/7339369/

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

They might have thought the war itself would be quick, but that they might face sanctions for much longer?

It's of course also possible that they are just incompetent all the way through.

I'm with SBurke on this.  A 3 day campaign was the only planning, supplemented nicely by a coup.  And so before the world could even begin to talk about sanctions this would be a fait accompli.  for example, Germany would not be shamed into support for something which the world had no real agency (not to pick on Germany here, just an example of how hard it would be to get voters to accept inflation, shortages, over something that was over already).  Plus Putin's general belief that the weak, dithering west would fold.  That appears to be the thinking, at least to me.

Instead, Ukraine fought and all of Sauron's plans have turned against him, in incredible ways.  To the point where Putin now feels so in danger he's jailing everyone in sight.

[billbindc]

48 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Or surely they could just have stockpiled chips and other special items they can not produce in Russia? If Putin has planned this war for a long time, surely he must have realised they'd get sanctioned...

Every indicator I can see indicates that Russia's planning was for a short war. There's nor reason to suspect they stockpiled chips. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

While "anything can happen" it's unlikely that Putin will be removed.  He has spent decades surviving and flourishing as the head of what is often described as a mafia-like organization.  It would be naive to assume he hasn't spent many years figuring out how to survive in the case of many negative events such as are occurring. 

First, don't think I didn't notice you pulling your tried and true strategy of not responding to posts that trash your arguments and then come back to make the same point as if you weren't challenged.  I called you out on that the last exchange and... well... you did it again.  I'm going to keep challenging you to respond because it's kinda fun to see you unable to defend your convictions.

Back to another round of challenging your views that you likely won't defend...

Sure, Putin has built one of the most successful police states in history.  Probably better than his predecessors in the Kremlin that were deposed by coups, so I do expect it will be harder to oust him.  But I will remind you that Herr Hitler had a pretty darned good police state and yet in the end a thick table is what prevented him from being blow'd-up sehr gut!

There will be a coup attempt against Putin.  Maybe several.  I'm sure one is underway as we speak, and perhaps that is why so many FSB and generals just got arrested.  It only takes one to work for Putin to be gone.

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

One can be confident that Putin and Russia have, since the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, spent those years figuring out what the west can do to Russia and coming up with counter-moves.  

And we've seen how well that's gone for Putin so far, haven't we?  This war was a colossal failure of epic proportions.  Bards will be singing the tale of Russian screwups and Ukrainian bravery for generations to come.

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

The most interesting facet of this war that has barely been discussed is the shortage of microchips that are needed to make the advanced weapon systems like ATGM's and PGM's etc function.  Russia must be going thru its stocks... and the only place that it can acquire more would be AFAIK China.  Hence Ms. Yellen's recent warnings to China not to assist Russia lest sanctions be applied to China. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-allies-will-not-be-indifferent-those-who-undermine-russia-sanctions-yellen-2022-04-13/

However, the Russo-Sino border is porus and AFAIK open. A few small truck loads of microchips will be all but impossible to stop.

Another interesting aspect is that the Siberian troops sent to Ukraine can easily hide Chinese "observers" and "advisors".  May will bring more clarity as to Russian and Chinese intentions.  

For sure Russia will be able to duck sanctions to some degree.  For sure it will be able to get some of the things it needs.  But sanctions make all of this much, much harder to do.  Even the fairly weak 2014/2015 sanctions are said to have had a negative impact on Russian industrial capacity.  These new sanctions and the will to enforce them indicates Russia's position is going to be significantly worse.

What you need to understand about the sanctions is the range of parts, including chips, that are no longer readily available.  No calling up a supplier in Poland and having the part delivered the next day.  Russian industry requires millions of different parts a year to keep itself going.  Some, like O-rings and bolts, can probably be sourced locally with time and effort.  Others are just not going to be feasible.

Do you really think Russia can put in a call to China and say... "here's 1 million different parts we need for our tens of thousands of different pieces of equipment.  Can we have it by Monday?"

Question for you Erwin... how much industrial equipment have you personally tried to keep running?  I suspect none because you sure don't seem to have an appreciation for what happens to machinery when used (even correctly) and how specialized the parts are.

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

In the meanwhile it feels like we're talking like the German generals in mid 1941.  "Russia has already lost, surrender is imminent..." etc

Russia has already lost this war.  Badly.  We've made this point to you more ways than I can count and you've refused to so much as acknowledge the arguments made.  Which indicates to me that you are stuck holding onto some sort of belief system that isn't supported by the world as it is.  Otherwise you would enlighten us with your wisdom of how we're all misreading the situation so badly.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Of course chips are not universal! But I assume the Russians know what kind of special components they need to build their own cruise missiles etc.

I'd bet you everything I own that they did not.  In fact, there were reports BEFORE the war that they were having difficulties sourcing chips just like everybody else.

Steve

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes they are specific of course, but from all the nations that could help, China with their huge manufacturing capabilities and more importantly the shared military technology of decades on Soviet weaponry are the ideal partner Russia could ask for if things go down the long way. They can easily copy anything. What's inside Xi mind is hard to decode precisely. If Russia asks, it will be hard for them to say no anyway. I see more of a manpower problem for Russia than hardware to be honest if they continue to treat this war less than the total war it actually is. 

The most decisive phase in this war is likely to come in the next few weeks/months. Even if, by a miracle of industrial engineering and production, Russia got this chips in a month or two they'd still need months at minimum to produce a significant amount of weapons with them. Meanwhile, Ukraine arms up daily with via pre-existing Western stockpiles. 

Simply put, even with a deus ex machina, Russia has to fight with what it brung.

[sburke]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And on Russia and the long game.  Perun has a new one up:

 

This is really good and well worth the hour.  Awesome review in detail of just how badly Putin has trashed the Russian economy.

Edited April 14, 2022 by sburke

[panzermartin]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The most decisive phase in this war is likely to come in the next few weeks/months. Even if, by a miracle of industrial engineering and production, Russia got this chips in a month or two they'd still need months at minimum to produce a significant amount of weapons with them. Meanwhile, Ukraine arms up daily with via pre-existing Western stockpiles. 

Simply put, even with a deus ex machina, Russia has to fight with what it brung.

Yes most probably (at this phase). 

To be honest I haven't seen reports of more kalibrs landing in Ukraine lately, this could be a sign of shortage or they are just waiting for whatever big offensive they have in mind. 

[db_zero]

Russia is not going to be in the microchip business anytime soon.

Even in the US it takes time. Ground was recently broken in Arizona for a new chip factory and it’s going to be at least a couple of years before it operating.

Also neon used in lasers for microchips is in short supply. Guess who produced nearly half the worlds supply…Ukraine. They supplied 90% of the semi-conductor grade neon to the US.

If that’s isn’t bad enough helium is also facing shortages.

Edited April 14, 2022 by db_zero

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes most probably (at this phase). 

To be honest I haven't seen reports of more kalibrs landing in Ukraine lately, this could be a sign of shortage or they are just waiting for whatever big offensive they have in mind. 

Probably a little bit of both. I don't know it this was already discussed here, but I am really baffled that they didn't even try to blow up the bridges on the Dniper. Granted, without ability to overfly them at will, and only using Kalibrs/ Iskanders it would be harder, probably requiring hundred(s) of rounds, but the fact that this apparent low hanging fruit was not picked up seems strange to me. The only explanation I see is that after doing the calculations they decided it is not worth it, given how limited their stocks of appropriate weapons are.

[SteelRain]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

You are very welcome, yes Bil H and I were game leads for CMCW, she is our angry screaming baby but we love her and have not forgotten her either.

....

I officially condemn Russian actions in Ukraine for delaying the CMCW Module!

After finishing the 1979 US Campaign that taught me to value Starships especially as support for infantry, I thought I could jump right into defending Germany with a bunch of roaring Leopards but turned out to not be the case, cause those boneheads in the Kremlin decided to start a real war... so I took a break and recently bought CMBS and got my ass handed in the first missions... That new Stuff is so much more deadly and scary, and the battles run at a faster pace compared to CMCW.
So Mr. Putin, I demand an immediate end to that war. You will have to fully compensate Ukraine and me for suffering your atrocities! You have enough internal **** to do. That are my max claims and I will definitely not step down.

PS Thanks again @Haiduk, @kraze, @Battlefront.com, @TheCaptain and all you other guys for providing a deeper dive into all the things concerning this war!

PPS @kraze I still dont think all russians are fundamentally evil but lets get back to topic before i get a vacation. Pah, I can still read the thread so i dont fear that! ^^

[MSBoxer]

Regarding semiconductor chips.
Let's say that Russia is cut off from their typical chip supplier in Taiwan and turn to China to replicate and supply.
Now China would need to reverse engineer/design the chip for their production facility, or acquire the original design.  This could take months.

OK, so Russia gets lucky and China happens to have the original design files and they are compatible with their manufacturing tools.  It could still take up to 4 months for the precision lithography machines to complete one disk of dies (plate of multiple individual chips).

With that in mind, due to the ongoing chip shortage odds are that Russia could not have stockpiled any sizable quantity of chips over the last 2 years and that even if they put in a "rush" order once they realized the war would not be a 3 day affair, at the very best their first delivery of chips would be July and that is if China already had the design and every step of the manufacturing process went flawlessly.

Edited April 14, 2022 by MSBoxer

[danfrodo]

Piling on a little to Steve above:  If Russia presented a list of its critical needs to China and China say "yes to all!".  It would still take years to bring up the production facilities.  And imagine the cost!!  China aint gonna do this for charity.  And they aint gonna do it for rubles.  They might do a few things for some very cheap oil, but they are in business for business.

But there are components that Russia can't even outsource because they have no idea how they work or how to produce them or the SW that drives them.   Once your sophisticated multi-system-upon-specialized-system device is missing something critical that was made by company X, you can't just get that somewhere else. 

[Pelican Pal]

I haven't been following the conflict that closely, but when looking at Russia's possible weapons production I think it helps to consider their expenditure up to this point. I kept on seeing, in the first week, comments along the lines of "Ukraine is doing well but wait for the day of the Grad" and that didn't happen. And that sort of unleashing of air/artillery/missile power to soften and pave the way for ground forces didn't happen.

So either Russia is intentionally holding back while we watch Ukrainian farmers haul away a veritable zoo of vehicles over the past 40 days or they don't actually have that much to throw around. I'm betting on the latter over the former. If they had the means to produce a bevy of new munitions then why wouldn't they be using them?


---

Just sorta of broadly I keep seeing some sort of optimism about the Russian situation and I frankly don't know where its coming from. Like fundamentally Russia is still dangerous to Ukraine but its dangerous in a way that is non-lethal to the State. It can kill, it can wreck, but it can do that in a limited fashion.

Russia pulled out of the Kyiv area what like 2 weeks ago? Where are those troops at in the East? Where is that big push out of Izyum to pocket the UA? Even Mariupol which has been isolated since the start of the war is still holding on and we're supposed to believe the the fall of that city will free up some imaginary Russian force that will change the balance of power?

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Pelican Pal

[MikeyD]

As the war progressed Russia began firing increasingly esoteric missile types into Ukraine (including one Mach 10 missile) most likely because they were rapidly depleting their stockpiles of conventional tactical missiles. I recall, several wars and several presidents ago, the US also managed to deplete its stocks of Tomahawk cruise missiles and really struggled to build back their stocks in a timely fashion. That's what spurred the development of smart gravity bombs. Because we just couldn't afford to chuck expensive cruise missiles at every barn and shed.

[kraze]

39 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

They might have thought the war itself would be quick, but that they might face sanctions for much longer?

It's of course also possible that they are just incompetent all the way through.

They had a thousand of new cruise missiles at the ready, why would they need to stockpile anything? Nobody would ever attack Russia and every country they had in their crosshairs is a backwards hole filled with untermenschen that had no weapons they could ever resist glorious russian liberation of goods with.

I mean why would russians ever use up those 1000 of kalibrs and iskanders? Certainly they won't run out of those bombing a country filled with some nobodies who were invented by lenin and still not defeat it?

How could anyone seriously even consider any other option?

Edited April 14, 2022 by kraze

[dan/california]

Posted 13 minutes ago

  21 minutes ago, chrisl said:

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'd bet you everything I own that they did not.  In fact, there were reports BEFORE the war that they were having difficulties sourcing chips just like everybody else.

Steve

And if someone was smart enough to try to stock some chips, what are the odds 85% of the money wasn't stolen.

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

two mines with jet engines strapped to them

You can also say Moskva successfully demilitarized Ukrainian naval defenses by lowering the amount of our antiship missiles by two.

epic

[danfrodo]

So Lavrov going bonkers over Finland and Sweden joining NATO, which is hilarious -- Putin shows world he's very dangerous neighbor then freaks out when those neighbors band together for survival.  And the real reason Putin hates NATO is because it means Putin's threats of military attack become hollow, and the only leverage he has outside of oil dependence is military threat.

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Taranis said:

@Haiduk@akd
Have you any information about the (recent?) deployment of the 201st Military Base from Dagestan ?
There is rumours that it is deployed near Kherson or southern Donetsk area.
In 2018 the division had T-72B1, BMP-2 and BTR-82A. It's a divisional sized unit

More informatin came about this. BTG of 201st MB is operatinhg around Borova, Kharkiv oblast. This is estern bank of Oskol river.

Also became knowingly, units of 5th CAA of Far East military district (8-10 BTGs) already arrived and involved in fight. At least one BTG, with elements of tank battalion of 218th tank regiment of 127th motor-rifle division was engaged by UKR 53rd mech.brigade, probably southern axis of JTO. Documents of 1st tank paltoon of 2nd tank company were captured

Interestning, that this tank battalion has obvious problems with personnel. On this page we can see from 57 names 19 or 20 belong not to 218th tank regiment, but to 114th, 143rd and 394th motor-rifle regiments and even from HQ of 127th division. Also battalion commander has a rank of captain and has a mayor like a deputy of armament under own subordination.  

Edited April 14, 2022 by Haiduk