How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

So maybe now certain folks can praising Putin as a 'genius' in america? 

Calling for Putin being charged as a war criminal is a big deal.  It makes it toxic for companies to deal w him. 

So it seems China is still totally cool w him, though.  All the autocrats and wanna-be autocrats look at this and say "yeah, that's what I'd like to do to those who oppose me"

[Probus]

I hate that these war crimes have happened.  Maybe the EU or NATO will use this to figure out a way to get more involved now without plunging all of Europe into a war. I would say it is worth the risk to stop these atrocities, but since I live in the USA, I don't feel like I have the right to say that.

[The Steppenwulf]

2 hours ago, c3k said:

Putin, conscripts, Russian law, and declaring war.

Those are all just figments of the West's imagination. Putin could just wave his hands and say, "The Ukraine is a region of Russia undergoing rebellion. We gave them some loose abilities to govern themselves and now the Hitlerites have taken over. This is an internal security matter. There is no need to declare war, nor does the West have any say on what happens. Or I'll nuke everyone."

 With all respect, I really have to question your depth of understanding with this statement.  

Edited April 4, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think so.  The theory of them being chucked out the back of a truck was the thought that did it in a hurry out while driving out of town.  The reporters on the scene said they were already decomposing, so they have been dead for a while.  Chances are Russians wouldn't have killed them and then relocated them days later.  Now we have the overhead imagery that shows them there for quite some time.  Also, the bodies were positioned so that the road was still derivable, which again hints at deliberate placement.  Lastly, I saw an image of pistol casings next to a body, which I took to be one of the road victims.  This indicates that the Russians marched them into place alive, executed them on the spot, and left them there to send the message.

Steve

I'm beyond the point of trying to guess why etc on this.  problem is my brain can't wrap itself around how anyone could do this and therefore searches for brutal but logical reasons and honestly, I think that is inherently flawed.  I can't think like these guys so there is no way I'll be able to hit their reasoning state.  They are just fkn animals. 

[DesertFox]

WOW!

 

 

[Probus]

@Ultradave, I was wondering what your take is on this story:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/45059/ukrainian-nuclear-disaster-expert-talks-worst-case-scenarios-due-to-russian-invasion

[DesertFox]

Incredible what kind of bull the russians are producing about Bucha...

 

 

[Vacillator]

'Necrophilic Western consciousness'.  Really?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Incredible what kind of bull the russians are producing about Bucha...

The standard Russian disinformation strategy is to hit the first documentation of something they don't like as hard as they can with as much BS as their creative writing teams can come up with.  For this they dig into the details of whatever it is in standard conspiracy theory methodology (i.e. make it seem reasoned, researched, and scientific).  When new incidents happen they say "see, more of the same!" and don't even bother to address the details.

We see this in the West when confronting conspiracy theories all the time.  The person who believes them will dig into one or two of the carefully crafted BS arguments then forever after dismiss everything else that follows.  You often hear this expressed as "X lied before, so nothing they say is true".  The simple minded strive for a simple lifestyle.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

'Necrophilic Western consciousness'.  Really?

Well, a hot blond woman said it so it must be true!

Steve

[DesertFox]

Wes Clark

 

 

[Kraft]

Sadly, Georgian Volunteer Corps has executed 4 prisoners in response to Bucha.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Sadly, Georgian Volunteer Corps has executed 4 prisoners in response to Bucha.

There will be more of this.  As understandable as it might be from an emotional standpoint, it is not correct behavior.  Let them be interrogated, let them confess, then hand them over to The Hague for public trial.  Every POW murdered is just one less person to testify, one more thing for Russia propaganda to focus on.

Steve

[Los]

Any political decision that does not directly result in the destruction of as many Russian forces as possible is a waste of time at this point.

The maximum effective range of  Condemnations, proclamations, hopes, and prayers...is zero F'ing meters.....

 

[Ultradave]

52 minutes ago, Probus said:

@Ultradave, I was wondering what your take is on this story:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/45059/ukrainian-nuclear-disaster-expert-talks-worst-case-scenarios-due-to-russian-invasion

A few things I noticed. Her opinion seems to be that the levels in the Red Forest could not lead to acute radiations sickness. Interesting. I have to do about 3 sets of conversions from that map to come up with something I can use for dose. I'll see if I can do that (that's just external dose from contamination, not internal, which is a real wild card - how much dust inhaled/swallowed). 

Another thing is her comment about the worst case at Zaporizhzhya being a nuclear explosion. No, absolutely not. That plant is similar in design to western PWRs and it CANNOT under any circumstances ever, explode in a nuclear explosion, nor can any other reactor plant anywhere in the world. It's physically impossible. Even Chernobyl, with its bizarre and unsafe design, was a violent steam expansion followed almost simultaneously by a massive hydrogen detonation. It was a huge explosion that spewed fission products all over Europe but was not a nuclear explosion. The firefight there was concentrated around office buildings. The containment structures are extremely robust, designed to shrug off the impact of a jet airliner crashing on them. Note that Fukushima's containments were of a MUCH older design, and the spent fuel was stored outside the containment - still in a closed building but not the robust reactor containment. The Zaporizhzhya plant and other Ukranian plants are a much more recent design

Comments about worst case at Chernobyl sound reasonable, with the exception that the IAEA said that even without power, the spent fuel is safe being cooled by natural circulation. The major worry would be dust and particles carried aloft by conventional explosives as part of a battle, and while that's not good, the scale of that would be pretty minor compared to the original Chernobyl accident.

As for the research reactor, I don't know much about the design but I read that it's a subcritical assembly. So my guess is fuel rods made of low enriched uranium, that require a neutron source to operate it in order to made scientific/physics research data readings. We had one like this in college. It was in the basement of our academic building, with classrooms on the same floor, no shielding. You can hold the fuel rods in your hands safely. A direct hit on it would scatter pieces of those around possibly. Little danger from those - it would be hard to turn them to dust. There are most likely many other small sources used for experiments and calibrating instrumentation. These tend to be encapsulated in resin or plastic. In explosions, they could surely be scattered around, but we're not talking about a huge number or amount - discrete pieces. Caveat here - I don't know much about the actual facility but what I've read sounds very similar to if they blew up our department building at college.

Since the Russians have left Chernobyl and no more shooting is happening at Zaporizhzhya I think the worst fears are past. Seems that everyone has taken a step back and realized that the reactor plants should be left alone. I know that the IAEA has been doing a lot of diplomacy to encourage this attitude, so hopefully things will be more sane. Surprise this article dated today didn't mention any of the withdrawal, rotation of personnel, etc.

Hope that helps.

Dave

[ASL Veteran]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, a hot blond woman said it so it must be true!

Steve

I'm more impressed with the skill of British secret agents to get in there and arrange the bodies without detection by either Russian or Ukrainian forces!  Whether the British actually killed the civilians or not is left unsaid unfortunately so I guess we will never know the full truth (I'm being sarcastic in case anyone gets in a huff). 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Incredible what kind of bull the russians are producing about Bucha...

 

 

The Russian obsession with the incredible and arcane abilities of the British Secret Service is one of those cultural tics that underlines how little, from regime to regime, changes in Russian political culture. 

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

I'm more impressed with the skill of British secret agents to get in there and arrange the bodies without detection by either Russian or Ukrainian forces!  Whether the British actually killed the civilians or not is left unsaid unfortunately so I guess we will never know the full truth (I'm being sarcastic in case anyone gets in a huff). 

Some clown in the propaganda department got advanced screening of Operation Mincemeat movie.  (based of Ben Macintyre book on the brits sending dead body ashore w fake invasion plans in the Mediteranean)

So once the movie comes out they'll show it as proof of British perfidy.

[BeondTheGrave]

 

[c3k]

2 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said:

 With all respect, I really have to question your depth of understanding with this statement.  

My point is that the only thing keeping Putin from deploying conscripted Russians into the attack on Ukraine is that there is a Russian law prohibiting such a thing.

Do you, or does anyone, think that Putin would let some words on paper keep him from his goal? That he'd rather be embarrassed, stymied, undermined, perhaps overthrown, than ignore a law? A law passed by a system which he controls?

And, whatever his excuses to use conscripts, if the West or anyone else (as if there is any effective internal resistance left in Russia) cries "foul", he'll resort to his usual threats.

So, I think I do have a deep understanding of how Putin can leverage his nation's manpower so he would not lose face.

Much like the West looked aside as he invaded in 2014 (tourists, little green men, Tigres from ebay, etc.) he'll toss out a facile excuse (Ukraine is a rogue province (hey, it's working for China vis a vis Taiwan)) and expect the West to look at their feet, mumble excuses, and not do anything.

The current modus operandi of the West supplying Ukraine with light weapons has not yet changed. Will it? I don't know. But I do know that Putin is a tyrant and that he can do what he wishes and just has to cloak it in the thinnest garb for it to be accepted by Russia.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

Dave

I'm kinda surprised that this hasn't been referred to anywhere

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Article.xsp?action=openDocument&documentId=3376730ECD9DF7B1C12563CD0051DD37

(Russian Federation inherited ratification from USSR, and went further by revoking declaration made by USSR at time of ratification)

Edited April 5, 2022 by JonS

[sross112]

Some gems from the ISW report for today:

 Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) separately reported that it acquired a document signed by Deputy Southern Military District commander Pyotr Gibert indicating that Russian officers are compensating their troops with the promise of additional leave days due to the inability to pay promised monthly salaries in cash.[3]

This was referenced earlier and will be a further blow to the RA morale. Bad enough missing a paycheck while in garrison, missing one during a "special operation" should be a hard pill to swallow.

Russian efforts to generate reserves and replace officer casualties continue to face serious challenges. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that the Russian military is deploying students and educators at higher military educational institutions directly to Ukraine to replace mounting officer casualties.[4] The deployment of untrained officers—and more crucially educational staff—to the war in Ukraine will impede the Russian military’s ability to develop its next generation of officers for years to come.

There were references to stripping training cadres a week or so ago, but this is really bad for the current and future RA officer corps. Some of these decisions are going to have very long term effects.

I was reading that the RA has some 160+ BTG's. Why wouldn't they rotate out 40 of their worst shape ones and rotate in the fresh ones from around the country? The beaten ones would be removed from the area of operations to reform and fill out again and they gain the fresh units to continue the fight. Doesn't that make more sense? Or does it say that they probably really don't have that other 40+ BTG's that everyone thinks they do? It isn't like they are truly facing threats anywhere else at this time that would consume that much combat power. The stuff on trains that we've seen pictures of is older storage equipment and not intact units heading west. 

For that matter, why not take 50% of the officers from uncommitted units and form a replacement officer pool? If you have to use officer cadets that aren't fully trained it would be much better to staff them into units not in a combat zone and get training and experience before trying to lead troops in battle. 

I'm just having trouble wrapping my mind around several of the RA decisions. I know, I know, the general answer to all these is "because they suck". It's just almost incomprehensible at times.

 

[JonS]

9 minutes ago, sross112 said:

the RA has some 160+ BTG's. Why wouldn't they rotate out 40 of their worst shape ones and rotate in the fresh ones from around the country?

AIUI, not all BTGs are created equal. And, frankly, that isn't surprising - with 160 of anything that depends on human teamwork plus lots of individual pieces of complex and fragile equipment, you're going to get a lot of variation.

Practically all of the 'good' ones were used in the initial invasion and month(+) since. IIRC, something like 120 BTGs have been committed, with the remainder at low readiness due to manpower or equipment deficiencies. Simply put, there aren't 40 'fresh' BTGs that are equipped and trained and ready to go.

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by JonS

[db_zero]

Media reports indicate that Finland is getting closer to joining NATO and if they request membership it will be granted. Public opinion in Finland seems to be in favor and opposition to it weak. For Finland its a radical change.

If Finland joins then the focus goes to Sweeden...

[Ultradave]

12 minutes ago, JonS said:

I'm kinda surprised that this hasn't been referred to anywhere

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Article.xsp?action=openDocument&documentId=3376730ECD9DF7B1C12563CD0051DD37

(Russian Federation inherited ratification from USSR, and went further by revoking declaration made by USSR at time of ratification)

Well, considering Russia was one of the guarantors of Ukrainian peace in return for giving up the nuclear weapons stationed there, you wouldn't expect them to abide by such minor niceties as this, would you?  

Dave

Edited April 5, 2022 by Ultradave