How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Degsy]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This seems to be the precursor to "swarm" attacks by UAVs.  The ability to systematically destroy a concentrated enemy force before it is able to react to it is the stuff that keeps a lot of military planners up late at night.

Interesting to think of what exactly this is right now.  Switchblades already in play?

Steve

re: the video. Look bottom right of the screen at 0.40 secs; there's a group of men approaching one of the vehicle sites very carefully via a building.  I can't see whether they're carrying AT weapons though.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Degsy said:

re: the video. Look bottom right of the screen at 0.40 secs; there's a group of men approaching one of the vehicle sites very carefully via a building.  I can't see whether they're carrying AT weapons though.

I saw that, but couldn't make out if they were Ukrainian or Russians looking for something.  I assumed the latter.

This could be a ground based attack, but I think we'd have seen more evidence of that.  The various vehicles seem to be exploding with no noticeable ground activity around them.

Steve

[Pete Wenman]

42 minutes ago, akd said:

Something appears to be methodically destroying all these Russian vehicles with high precision:

Switchblade perhaps ?

P

[TheVulture]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

I saw that, but couldn't make out if they were Ukrainian or Russians looking for something.  I assumed the latter.

This could be a ground based attack, but I think we'd have seen more evidence of that.  The various vehicles seem to be exploding with no noticeable ground activity around them.

Steve

If you want to be more cynical, they could be abandoned Russia vehicles discovered by Ukrainian infantry and then blown up with placed explosives for cinematic purposes.

[Vet 0369]

16 hours ago, akd said:

BMP obr. 2022 "Metafor":

Waiting:

I love this second picture.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, Degsy said:

re: the video. Look bottom right of the screen at 0.40 secs; there's a group of men approaching one of the vehicle sites very carefully via a building.  I can't see whether they're carrying AT weapons though.

No reason that some of the "attack munitions" guided in by the drone umbrella can't be infantry-portable. Over-the-horizon SPA firing MRSI missions with guided and unguiided projectiles, man-handled mortars, drone-launched warheads, kamikaze drones, fire-and-forget standoff ATGMs and RPGs, all orchestrated to hit their best target at a time of the commander's choosing. A whole new generation of time-on-target barrages.

[Bulletpoint]

The most surprising thing for me in this war is probably that the Russians appear to be completely clueless that drones have been invented. You see them dig in their tanks, park them inside woods, even try to hide them in back yards, but what good does that do when the enemy can watch them from above and direct artillery straight down on them?

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The most surprising thing for me in this war is probably that the Russians appear to be completely clueless that drones have been invented. You see them dig in their tanks, park them inside woods, even try to hide them in back yards, but what good does that do when the enemy can watch them from above and direct artillery straight down on them?

Yeah, and it's pretty clear that these blokes know what's about to rain holy hell on them.

With a soundtrack by the Ukie version of the Dropkick Murphys.

Edited April 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Chibot Mk IX]

47 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

3.  What does Izyum retreat mean?  Is it just a tactical withdrawal because holding that salient was not longer worth it and freed up forces for use elsewhere?  Or is it a defeat?

I guess it is no longer worth to hold it any further. From attacking side perspective , Izyum itself is not an ideal place to make a breakthrough.  Rus side has only one road to push out from a very narrow front , and it is under observation from the southern bank

Terrain map around Izyum

 

There is a Significant elevation difference on the two sides of the siverskyi donets river. As long as UKR controls the hills on the southern bank, they are in a good shape. Any attack coming out of Izyum will lose momentum very quickly, if not be totally wiped out by ATGM and Artillery.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Chibot Mk IX

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The most surprising thing for me in this war is probably that the Russians appear to be completely clueless that drones have been invented. You see them dig in their tanks, park them inside woods, even try to hide them in back yards, but what good does that do when the enemy can watch them from above and direct artillery straight down on them?

This is really interesting and very surprising.  So back in 2014 we were all pretty surprised on how the Russians employed UAVs, which we saw again in the Azer-Arm conflict but I am getting the sense that the UA has taken things to a new level.

In 2014 and 2020 the Russian doctrine appears to be "make arty better", which frankly makes perfect sense given the deep historical attachment Russia has with artillery going back at least to WW1.  They consistently built their systems around the guns and MLRS to link UAVs through a tactical commander to create rapid and deadly accurate massed fires.

Then is this war a couple things appear to have happened: 1) the UA has gone in a way that don't give massed fires much to shoot at and 2) they have taken a UAV doctrine to "make all targeting better".  And here it appears to follow the US multi-domain targeting concept.  The UA is still using them to do artillery targeting but they are also employing them to sync up ATMG and ambushes targeting.  I suspect they are employing them to make aerial targeting better and faster.  And they are employing them much more widely in an integral strike capacity (as demonstrated in the video).  This is what I was going on about something is happening here, armor and its logistical trains are getting hit along the entire length of their mass and UAVs are an important part of how that appears to be happening.  The UA, thru no small part of crowdsourcing and hybrid approaches are in essence conducting omni-directional manoeuvre through firepower and creating shock along the entire Russian operational system.  By simultaneously hitting everywhere from every direction the Russian system has no where to go, and UAVs in supporting/creating this effect is new. 

Lastly, the UAVs are being used to create information effects, both in a C4ISR sense and the fact that we, sitting back in the west, can see what is happening.  The information/messaging these feeds have conducted in creating positive strategic support has been amazing.

[db_zero]

Ukraine may not be a NATO member, but for all intents and purposes they are integrated into the NATO command and control structure and its no secret NATO and the US is feeding them real time intelligence and assisting with targeting information. The precision and timing of strikes on Russian targets is simply too hard to believe that's its been a matter of luck. 

For the past few years besides training and weapons the US has been supplying command and control equipment and software.

By this time NATO has a very clear picture of the Russian electronic battlefield picture. Those alleged Ukranian helos that managed to slip into Russian airspace didn't do so by accident. They flew a precise flight path with the knowledge of where and when gaps in Russian radar coverage would appear.

By now NATO/US knows the individual radar operators, what time they go to work and individual Idiosyncrasy of ADA operators. I wouldn't be surprised if those eavesdropping on them have given them call signs and know details like many of the operators are angry their access to porn hub was cut off...

A squadron of F-18 WWs were recently sent to Europe. Can only imagine what they have been up to.

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by db_zero

[Vet 0369]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not much confirmation of what happened yet, but this source says it was a Ukrainian helicopter.  That could very well be because of the height the missiles were fired from.  And ground based rockets wouldn't have flat trajectories:

https://www.teletrader.com/russian-fuel-storage-unit-hit-in-ukraine-missile-attack-gov/news/details/57607309?ts=1648789030560

This will be very interesting to see how it plays out.  Ukraine must be feeling pretty confident to conduct airstrikes pretty deep into Russian airspace.

Steve

One can probably compare it to the 1942 strike on Tokyo. While it might have done some appreciable damage, the main purpose might have been to force the Russians to redeploy air defense units to protect those vital assets. Either way, it’s a win for Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

I guess it is no longer worth to hold it any further. From attacking side perspective , Izyum itself is not an ideal place to make a breakthrough.  Rus side has only one road to push out from a very narrow front , and it is under observation from the southern bank

I agree.  I think the value of holding it was to buy time for the Ukrainians to create a new front and generally cause Russia heartburn.  Salients almost always fail eventually, so better to pull out before getting snipped off.

Yes, this gives Russia a possibility of getting over the river, but then what?  It's in a natural terrain funnel that Russian forces will have constrained elbow room.  Since Ukraine has shown it is extremely good at laying waste concentrated Russian forces, I don't think Russia gains much from this in practical terms.

Steve

[sburke]

So much for April 1st deadline.  It really is Fool's day.  Maybe rename to Putin Day?

Russia says it won't cut off gas yet in rouble row (msn.com)

[dan/california]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, I know what is being said at many levels on "what we think about what Putin is thinking" and it plays well in political theatre, but any professional military assessment is going to be very concerned with what the other side is thinking, why they are thinking it, and how they keep thinking it.  The only exception is a war of extermination where your opponents frameworks are completely irrelevant because you are aiming to completely erase them from the books.  Neither side in this war is at that level, in fact that level is very rare - think Mongols.

This is also much bigger than "Putin".  For all we know he is already in favour of WMDs to "solve this" and it is the domestic response, linked to military response that is keeping him in check - despite the noise, he is not a god-king - and sustained attacks on Russian homeland, especially when a missile goes off course and hits a school, is strategically risky.  I say "risky" because obviously there are benefits in sending a message but potential costs as well...all war is negotiation as well.

"Maximal support for Ukraine" - no, because that would include us attacking Russia directly up to and including nuclear weapons.  I am all for Ukraine an this one but we are not "all in" on this one.  One needs only go online and read the predictions of a full nuclear exchange and you can see why.  We may even be "all in" as a proxy war, for the most part (e.g.  I don't think we will be sending WMDs to Ukraine) but direct confrontation with between two nuclear states has only occurred a few times since we opened that box and every time it was like a barfight when someone pulls out a gun...a "whoa" moment.

Finally, this is not about "Putin desperate", he is already there.  This is about "Russians desperate" and any realistic assessment of this thing needs to separate those two concepts.  Go check the history books on what happens when the Russian's get desperate, nothing good.  The strategy being employed here is "poison-perogy-to-induce-vomiting", not to destroy Russia in fire and righteousness.  

I should have been clearer, I meant maximum support in the current proxy war, indirect involvement, environment. To put it another way the people running the war for Ukraine, and the NATO members supplying the Ukrainian army need to get on the same page as far as means and ends. If the goal is to create a stalemate on the current line of confrontation in the Donbas, then be sure the Ukrainians know that so they can do it coherently and with the lowest possible casualties. If the goal is to kill so many Russian troops so quickly that Russia abandons everything but Crimea we need to give the Ukrainians support to do that. That should specifically include higher level western AA/anti missile systems, even if that means some NATO troops have to do the false flag thing to operate them. NATO personnel from Eastern Europe could be used, it isn't like you can tell a Pole from a Ukrainian just by looking. Just don't let the BBC interview them, heck don't admit the Ukrainians have the systems, let the downed Russian aircraft speak for themselves. You won't even have to shoot down that many, they will just stop flying where it is dangerous.

On the larger issue of Ukrainian strikes in Russia you have to distinguish between logical extensions of the Ukrainian campaign against Russian military logistics in the area of operations, and "communication of our actual negotiating position". The fuel depot strike was probably more to do with communication, although Russian logistics have so idiotic it may have a real impact there as well. As communication goes it is a would I would call it a level one attack, the noise made is large, but the body counts is pretty low, and it is still local to the current theater of operations. so now we see how the Russians respond, And then we will see if the Ukrainians can do something larger if they don't like the Russian response. A really large scale covert attack on the Russian railway system, or something purely symbolic much deeper into Russia come to mind.

[sburke]

If American draft resisters flee to Canada, where do Russian draft resisters go?

Hundreds in Russia Seek Legal Help to Avoid Ukraine War—Lawyer (msn.com)

[LongLeftFlank]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

1) the UA has gone in a way that don't give massed fires much to shoot at and 2) they have taken a UAV doctrine to "make all targeting better".  And here it appears to follow the US multi-domain targeting concept....

The UA, thru no small part of crowdsourcing and hybrid approaches are in essence conducting omni-directional manoeuvre through firepower and creating shock along the entire Russian operational system.  By simultaneously hitting everywhere from every direction the Russian system has no where to go, and UAVs in supporting/creating this effect is new.

Yes!  And I'd add that this crowdsourced hybrid system is amazingly 'antifragile' in the Taleb sense...

UA doesn't actually *need* the high level 'air traffic control' and rooms full of drone operators noted by Steve, although that would surely be optimal -- and lethal.

Small detachments of trained operators with the help of locally savvy 'muddy guys' who look like a mix of lumberjacks and poachers can come together, rain hell and then disperse again. They are also free to prosecute 'low tech' low cost IED warfare against the Russian LOCs in parallel.

Air power, artillery firebases, all of very little value -- ok, they might get lucky a few times, mainly by hitting the UA troops on the roads.

But even resorting to WMD (chems) isn't going to neutralize these kinds of tactics, so long as the weapons keep flowing in, and so long as the Russians can't develop infantry-based 'LURPS' type countersweeps to limit the UA freedom of movement.

....Which tactics require both a skilled cadre of subunit leaders (NCOs) and a sheer bloody mindedness that is pretty much absent outside the Chechen, VDV and spetsnaz formations.  Which groups don't seem to 'play well' with the conventional units.

Edited April 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

I guess it is no longer worth to hold it any further. From attacking side perspective , Izyum itself is not an ideal place to make a breakthrough.  Rus side has only one road to push out from a very narrow front , and it is under observation from the southern bank

Terrain map around Izyum

 

There is a Significant elevation difference on the two sides of the siverskyi donets river. As long as UKR controls the hills on the southern bank, they are in a good shape. Any attack coming out of Izyum will lose momentum very quickly, if not be totally wiped out by ATGM and Artillery.

 

 

Thanks Chibot (and Steve).  This is what I was wondering about.  So UKR is showing good flexibility and not dogmatically holding ground.  Reminds me of Yelnya in July-august 1941 on the Smolensk front, where Guderian obsessively held onto the salient despite the terrible cost.  Germans ended up pulling out later, achieving nothing except losing valuable resources, time, and mobility (despite killing lots of russians).

[akd]

Ukraine observes something like 700 vehicles pulling out of northern Ukraine into Belarus yesterday, knows Russia is redeploying to push on Izium, and that very night the major fuel depot at Belgorod goes boom.  I think the reasons here are clear:  all those units redeploying aren’t going to be departing from bases built up over a year near the border.  They have to move long distances and then go immediately into Ukraine if they are going to affect the outcome.  They will have to draw on all available fuel, and that will far exceed what was built up for the units that are already operating on that axis.

Edited April 1, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

As communication goes it is a would I would call it a level one attack, the noise made is large, but the body counts is pretty low, and it is still local to the current theater of operations. so now we see how the Russians respond, And then we will see if the Ukrainians can do something larger if they don't like the Russian response. A really large scale covert attack on the Russian railway system, or something purely symbolic much deeper into Russia come to mind.

Absolutely agree.  I am not saying attacks on Russia are even a bad idea, I too have been wondering about those railheads, but they come with a different set of risk calculus.  Again, I am not to fussed about what Putin is thinking as we already have a pretty good bead on this.  I am very fussed about what the Russian people are thinking.  Many have said "this will end when Putin says it will", well maybe but it can also end when the Russian people say it ends as well.  Putin appears to still be bound by Russian law - a contract between him and the people - otherwise we would likely be seeing a much broader mobilization in Russia, but I suspect hands are tied.  Putin is definitely bound by Russian Will, I do not agree that these are irrevocably one in the same, or we are likely looking at a major war between the west and Russia to which Ukraine is but the opening appetizer.

As you point out, let's not discount this was Ukrainian "testing the waters" as well, to see what echo they get back from this signal.  As a min the political and strategic military bureaucracy has to be losing their minds..."they did what?!"  Because this was not supposed to be possible.  This is akin to the Doolittle Raid, not much damage anywhere but the minds of the target audience which was the point.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Ukraine observes something like 700 vehicles pulling out of northern Ukraine into Belarus yesterday, knows Russia is redeploying to push on Izium, and that very night the major fuel depot at Belgorod goes boom.  I think the reasons here are clear:  all those units redeploying aren’t going to be departing from bases built up over a year near the border.  They have to move long distances and then go immediately into Ukraine if they are going to affect the outcome.  They will have to draw on all available fuel, and that will far exceed what was built up for the units that are already operating on that axis.

Hmm, another Operation 'War of the Rails' imminent perhaps? Those units will ship mainly by train.  Besides blowing up bridges and switchyards, what's the best way to screw with freight rail systems?

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, sburke said:

If American draft resisters flee to Canada, where do Russian draft resisters go?

Hundreds in Russia Seek Legal Help to Avoid Ukraine War—Lawyer (msn.com)

Given our immigration policies...Canada?

I joke, I joke...kinda.

Edited April 1, 2022 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

So we gotta get this guy playing CM

 

[Harmon Rabb]

23 minutes ago, sburke said:

If American draft resisters flee to Canada, where do Russian draft resisters go?

Hundreds in Russia Seek Legal Help to Avoid Ukraine War—Lawyer (msn.com)

From what I heard Georgia is a popular destination for Russians who want to leave Russia quickly.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-georgia-a-bleak-new-home-for-russian-exiles

I do wonder if eventually Putin will close Russia's borders to those who want to leave.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Something appears to be methodically destroying all these Russian vehicles with high precision:

 

Man they still operate as if they're not under constant observation. They think they can camouflage and wont be watched doing it. There is a real 20th century mindset just cemented into their collective consciousness. 

Good god, why would any RUS soldier get into a vehicle at this point? Bloody bicycles would be safer.

The violence of the strikes since D1 has been only amplified by the pinpoint accuracy of each hit. Deeply unnerving just to watch, let along being there and enduring your entire platoon's IFVs going POP POP POP POP. The blow-torch up from inside a T-72 is horrible.

I'd have sympathy - but then I remember those children screaming for days in the darkness under the theatre in Mariupol and I just say F#CK 'EM.  Let them burn. 

It wont stop until they die or leave.

@akd @sburke I was literally wondering if there were any more..

@Combatintman et al, thank you for the info and analysis it's enormously interesting and informative.

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Kinophile