How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sross112]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

That's a lot of big IFs right now.

1. IF he can secure it - and what does that look like? What does it take? Will it last? 

2. IF Ukraine agrees to end hostilities - which I doubt. This isn't 2016, the UA is not a crippled shell of itself and UKR's very existence had been specifically threatened.

3. Peace requires compromises, and those will need a referendum. I highly doubt any land bridge to Crimea will pass a referendum. Not just a civilian referendum but the UA will need to agree, either implicitly or overtly.

All those are a lot to expect to go right for Komrad Stalin-I-mean-Putin..

The instant Mariupol falls Russia will demand an immediate cease fire and negotiations. They have to have something to parlay with as they haven't by any means crushed the UA. Their intent will be keeping the land bridge and as much of Kherson Oblast that they can while backing out of the rest of the territory they occupy. I can see the west trying to make that stick through pressuring Ukraine to compromise to end the war. Right now that is the best possible ending Russian can hope for and it is why I say Ukraine needs to do everything it can to not let Mariupol fall.

With that said, I don't think Ukraine will agree to a cease fire as they know they have the RA on the ropes. They will continue with the negotiations but keep eating away at the RA. Hopefully settling for nothing less than get out and stay out in the end. I can see the US and other western nations trying to pressure them by discontinuing support in arms and supplies but I don't think the other border nations will stop giving them whatever they can to the bitter end. I believe that several of the other border nations see Russia and Putin for exactly what they are and they know that their priority will be to make sure the UA wins no matter what. They can always repair their diplomatic relations with the US and whatever other countries decide to puss out, but the biggest threat to the sovereignty has always been and always will be Russia. 

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Machor said:

Edit: I was recommended to ignore Bret Stephens after posting this; leaving the post up for the sake of my replies to danfrodo and Fenris.

I am not out to defend the article; my take from it is that the Kremlin may not be in such a bad place as we take them to be. The next stage of the war, and whether Ukraine will be able to liberate territories in the east and south (BBC live just writing Mariupol is about to fall) will be decisive.

A clamp down like the one that exists now would've been unthinkable before the war - even ordinary people are now afraid to voice dissent, certainly in public. That wasn't the case before; 'they' came after people like Navalny and activists, not Sergei and Lena next door. Of course, the war itself could have been waged differently.

I am reminded of Putin's public 'address' to Greta Thunberg: He's convinced the global South will never move away from fossil fuels, and China is now the top creditor of the global South. I can see how he could count on shifting to new markets.

Machor, thanks for your thoughts.  I was NOT in any way sending any shade your way.  It's always good to question our narratives.

I am always looking for an excuse to pee on Bret Stephens, though.  He has written some unbelievably stupid s--t and every time I see one of his pieces I consider cancelling my NYTimes subscription.  In this he comes up w a hypothesis that doesn't even fit the known facts.  It's astonishing.

An intelligent version of the article would have been "Putin can still pull a pyhhric victory out this by taking the natural gas fields and further emasculating his opposition".  But that's a long way off from being so stupid as to even dream this was some brilliant scheme.  This is a flaming fiasco but he still could end up taking things from Ukraine.  At great cost, insane cost.

[danfrodo]

I see some interesting thoughts above  on how what happens in the south will shape the end game.  I am hoping Ukrainian forces can cause some serious collapse of Russian forces in vital sectors so as to negate the current Russian gains.  But that sounds very difficult unless there's plenty of rot in the Russian forces there.

[dan/california]

This is a reach, but hear me out. There is a small but real possibility that this war recreates the the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, By which i mean a combination of The Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Slovenia, and ?????. All of these countries are scared bleepless of Russia, all of them are quite irritated at being bossed around by the French and Germans, and this war has made their populations almost totally simpatico with each other.  I mean Poland has absorbed 5% of Ukraines population, and people in Lithuania are donating their SUVs to equip territorial defense units in Ukraine, both of those are pretty big asks. Zelensky is of course the first President by acclimation but is limited to one six year term because all the other politicians want a chance someday. Zelensky could move on to VERY high position in Brussels. It would give the people involved enough sheer mass to defend their fairly similar interest, and back door Ukraine into Nato, and the EU. Tell me why i'm crazy.

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, sross112 said:

The stuff in Bret Stephens article are consequences of this war, but I believe they are unintended consequences. Putin isn't stupid but he made a very poor choice initiating this conflict. He is now presented with a bunch of busted eggs that he needs to make an omelet out of. 

I don't think Putin falls after this. He will remain in power and his position will probably be strengthened when the dust settles. The failure in Ukraine gives the impetus for a lot of finger pointing and blame slinging and of course it will land on those that aren't 100% in his corner. He has removed the main public opposition and now he gets to clean up what other bumps may be in his way or he believes are in his way.

This is absolutely a possibility, but there are two things working against it:

1.  It is very unlikely that economic relationships with Russia will resume in any meaningful way until Putin is gone.  Oil and gas deals, while important from a cash standpoint, on their own aren't enough to compensate for the rest of the economy being cutoff.  The evidence for this is pretty straight forward... Russia's economy wasn't doing great even when there was full engagement (i.e. before the war).

2.  The support that Putin needs to keep going is not going to be satisfied with Rubles, "staycations", and putting their kids through Russian university system.  The masses aren't going to be satisfied to have their standard of living go even further backwards (as it was already before the war) with *no* prospects of it getting better.  This on top of the compounding evidence of national leadership failure on important issues such as healthcare, jobs, and food.

People are generally fickle.  The Russian people are no different.  They love Putin now, maybe, but will they love him in a year or two after this war ends?  With the economy going in the direction it is going, the news eventually getting to them that their military was a waste of money, and knowing they are cutoff from the rest of the world... well, I see them being quite supportive of some other autocratic leader being in charge. 

The side effect of autocracies brainwashing their people into thinking they must have a strong and autocratic leader is that if the people no longer see their autocrat being strong, well, they start to look elsewhere.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is a reach, but hear me out. There is a small but real possibility that this war recreates the the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, By which i mean a combination of The Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Slovenia, and ?????. All of these countries are scared bleepless of Russia, all of them are quite irritated at being bossed around by the French and Germans, and this war has made their populations almost totally simpatico with each other.  I mean Poland has absorbed 5% of Ukraines population, and people in Lithuania are donating their SUVs to equip territorial defense units in Ukraine, both of those are pretty big asks. Zelensky is of course the first President by acclimation but is limited to one six year term because all the other politicians want a chance someday. Zelensky could move on to VERY high position in Brussels. It would give the people involved enough sheer mass to defend their fairly similar interest, and back door Ukraine into Nato, and the EU. Tell me why i'm crazy.

Why would they do that when they already have NATO?  Sorry, this makes absolutely no sense at all.  Probably not even if NATO proved to be hollow.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, sross112 said:

The instant Mariupol falls Russia will demand an immediate cease fire and negotiations.

Yes, this is the minimum.  They also want to enlarge the DLPR, which is apparently what they are now starting to focus on now that they've given up on Kiev and Kharkiv.  They might think they have time to get more before a cease fire and hold out for more.  That would be very dangerous.

This is also consistent with Russia's previous "smash and grab" activities.  Their formula is "grab and then negotiate".  Very much a believer in the old saying that "possession is 9/10ths of the law".  In fact, it was the basis of their original plan for this war, but encompassing all of eastern Ukraine.

30 minutes ago, sross112 said:

With that said, I don't think Ukraine will agree to a cease fire as they know they have the RA on the ropes. They will continue with the negotiations but keep eating away at the RA.

I've been saying this since the war started, so obviously no argument from me

Something that a lot of people are missing here is that Ukraine has, as a nation and as a people, that the war must end on Ukraine's terms.  Anything less than that means a continuation of this war indefinitely.  The "peace" deal they had in 2015 did not result in peace, so why would a new one be any better?

I see Ukrainians, including senior Ukrainian government officials (among them Zelensky) saying that they will never trust Putin or Russia again.  That really changes the equation for a negotiated peace deal.

Steve

[Machor]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

I recall some 3rd world country defaulting and handing over a port to China, or somefink like that

"Uganda Finds China’s Leverage Is in the Fine Print of Its Lending"

"A clause in an agreement with the African nation has stirred a flap over whether the country signed away financial control of Entebbe International Airport"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/uganda-finds-chinas-leverage-is-in-the-fine-print-of-its-lending-11640601003

Yoni Netanyahu didn't like this. 

42 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Turkey I can see being part of it for economic and power reasons. They are expanding their military industrial capabilities and this would be a perfect market that they could join with some sort of caveat of being the sole supplier of certain weapons systems, etc.

All of Turkey's next generation drones are going to use Ukrainian engines. Even more importantly, after failing to secure licensing from Germany for MTU engines for the Altay MBT, Turkey struck a deal with Ukraine to develop an engine using Ukrainian technology.

Fun fact: Erdoğan tried to use his 'personal relationship' with Shinzo Abe to get Mitsubishi engines, but the deal failed. Had it succeeded, the Altay would have been a Korean tank with a Japanese engine. 

[Battlefront.com]

Good read (even with rough translation) of interviews with what seems to be a pure volunteer force, maybe nominally Territorial Defense, taking back areas around Kiev (Irpin in this case).  The man interviewed, Yevhen Mezhevikin, is a (retired?) Colonel who fought at the Donetsk airport, for which he received the Hero of Ukraine award and the honorific of being a "Cyborg".

https://censor-net.translate.goog/ua/resonance/3329797/yevgen_mejevikin_pozyvnyyi_adam_kadyrivtsi_ssutsya_tak_samo_yak_i_reshta_moskaliv?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[kraze]

5 hours ago, Machor said:

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine"

Oh yes - it's almost as if putin exists in a spacetime bubble separate from at least last 300 years of human history and russian history in particular.

This article forgets to mention that after a month our army having more tanks than it had at at the start of the war is just a part of that cunning putin's plan. Him throwing his most elite units to take Kyiv and having them wiped out was done so he could take a few more villages in Donbass.

I also like the bit about putin's demands of neutrality. Ukraine was constitutionally neutral in February 2014 with only 18% people wanting to join NATO. The neutral status was cancelled more than 3 years after the war and occupation began.

I have a suspicion this author is absolutely clueless.

Edited March 31, 2022 by kraze

[mosuri]

7 hours ago, Ultradave said:

 There shouldn't be any alpha emitters in the dust/soil around Chernobyl.

Hi Ultradave,

asking for a bit more detail here. It's been decades from my last physics class but living in an area where radon can be a problem keeps you at least somewhat aware of radioactive decay ... no significant alpha emitters?

AIUI U-235 is used in reactors and it decays to thorium via alpha decay (and there's plenty more alpha decay on the path down to lead, e.g., radon) but it takes aeons to do so, so unless there is massive amounts of it around there's not much alpha floating around. right? I would still avoid kicking up uranium dust, if not for anything else but for the toxic effects

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Why would they do that when they already have NATO?  Sorry, this makes absolutely no sense at all.  Probably not even if NATO proved to be hollow.

Steve

Especially since the economies of mentioned countries are mainly dependent on the financial support of the EU.

[mosuri]

Did not see this mentioned yet. Lawyers are getting involved ...

12 Rosgvardia troops that refused to participate in the invasion were fired from their jobs; their lawyer is now arguing there is no basis for the sacking, as officially Russia is not at war.

Google translation of the article in Finnish at

https://www-hs-fi.translate.goog/ulkomaat/art-2000008716782.html?_x_tr_sl=fi&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Taranis]

Small economic question:
Does anyone have any idea of the total Western investment in military equipment for Ukraine since the invasion began? How many years of Ukrainian military spending would that correspond to?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

Kadyrovites...

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://censor.net/ua/news/3330052/zsu_zvilnyly_sche_try_naselenyh_punkty_genshtab

What is this? This town Orlove, Zaporizhia Oblast really taken back? (circled on the red)

[Armorgunner]

[TheVulture]

9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://censor.net/ua/news/3330052/zsu_zvilnyly_sche_try_naselenyh_punkty_genshtab

What is this? This town Orlove, Zaporizhia Oblast really taken back? (circled on the red)

I suspect not - there is an Orlove in Kherson oblast, and the article is wrong. Orlove in Kherson is right next to Zagradivka and Kochubeyeka, and is almost certainly what was meant. The article says:

"Units of the Defense Forces restored control over the settlements of Orlove (Zaporizhzhya region. - Ed.), Zagradivka, Kochubeyevka (both - Kherson. - Ed.)"

so I assume the editorial insert was wrong.

[The_MonkeyKing]

31 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I suspect not - there is an Orlove in Kherson oblast, and the article is wrong. Orlove in Kherson is right next to Zagradivka and Kochubeyeka, and is almost certainly what was meant. The article says:

"Units of the Defense Forces restored control over the settlements of Orlove (Zaporizhzhya region. - Ed.), Zagradivka, Kochubeyevka (both - Kherson. - Ed.)"

so I assume the editorial insert was wrong.

seems so

[Rokko]

 

There is apparently video footage of Kadyrov with the commander of the 8th CAA Andrey Mordvichev who had allegedly been killed on 16 March. Can someone confirm this is actually Mordvichev? The foto of the guy I've seen floating around in media is this one and the two people don't look alike to me:

I've also found this foto, which does bear a lot resemblance with the guy in the video:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKhQY5XMAITQgv?format=jpg&name=small

Edit: Also, what is up with this goofball Kadyrov? Is he actually near Ukraine this time around or did they really fly a Russian general back to Chechnya so he could produce more TikTok videos?

Edited March 31, 2022 by Rokko

[Haiduk]

4th Fast reaction brigade of National Guard, elements of which involved in fighting for Rubizhne city, Luhansk oblast, showed the strike on probably LPR T-64BV (in the video mistakingly identified as T-72)

  

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Today Ukraianian Air-assault Command officially claimed UKR forces liberated several villages east from Huliaypole in Zaporizhzhia oblast: Zatyshshia, Vesele, Zelenyi Hai, Chervone, Malynivka. About liberation of Malynivka was reported in social media already several days ago.

Air-assault Command also issued some photos of destroyed Russian vehicles and captured gears

  

But clashes on Zaporizhzhia direction is enough tough and UKR forces also have a losses in vehicles. Here is a video of Russians, claimed filmed in this oblast, probably for previous days, when they could take some land on this direction. Looks like mostly National Guard armor, including BTR-4E (I doubt that 92nd mech.brigade, equipped with BTR-4E, involved near Kharkiv could move even a company here). Also damaged captured Varta MRAP, armored car Cougar, BTR-70, HMMWV  and T-72AMT

 

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[CHEqTRO]