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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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47 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Except, I suppose, by turning China into radioactive glass....

 

 

I just watched Red Dawn (as I've said a few times here!) and forgot to mention that I thought that as a film it held up pretty well.  Since this was done in the 1980s, that's saying something since so much of that stuff did not.  The story, of course, is still quite laughable :D  Very typical "fit reality to support a premise no matter how much it strains believably".

Steve

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On the modern war institute podcast there was a discussion with this bloke who explains what some small countries should do if they cant defeat a superior aggressor. It seems his formula is being adopted to some degree by Ukraine on the open flanks of the RF and against their supply lines.

https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-on-resistance/

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2 minutes ago, THH149 said:

Does the RA have the capacity to block the rail lines across the Dnepro? or otherwise seriosly interdicts UA logisitcs?

 

Theoretically they do, but so far they have shown no interest in doing so.  Which means they probably don't have the ability or at least would have to give up doing something else to do so.

Interdicting roads and bridges from the air takes concentrated effort.  The longer the supply lines, the greater the alternative routes, the more complicated it becomes.  Sometimes shorter lines is not a good thing because it makes for easier interdiction.

Interdicting by missile is unlikely to be effective due to poor accuracy and the same problems as air.

Artillery is only an option for tactical interdiction.

Steve

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Got from another board.  Was posted as a response to us wondering how did it come to this.  It's a lecture about the evolution and nature of what you could I suppose call the russian national psyche and how that is playing into the decisions that have been made to get us to where we are today.   I don't know enough to critique his analysis but I will say I found it quite interesting.

Evaluation of Russia by Finnish Intelligence Colonel (subtitles) | December 3, 2018

 

 

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 The story, of course, is still quite laughable :D  Very typical "fit reality to support a premise no matter how much it strains believably".

Steve

It would have been far more plausible had the rogue kids been part of a wider Yugoslav-style partisan movement and the occupiers showed as more 'overstretched'. John Milius knew his mil stuff (as Hollywood went) and for all we know that was his original vision....

But this was the 1980s Rambo/Aahnold era and all-American action heroes had to rack up body counts of 100:1.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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14 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Well supposedly not *all* the troops on the Kiev axis are 'in contact' or directly on the frontline. So if there's let's say somewhere like 70k troops there they might be able to withdraw quite some troops from there, IF those in contact / on the frontline remain in position and cover the withdrawal. The remaining troops would become very fragile though and whatever support / logistics still in place will also be further strained.

Another challenge would be to reintegrate the hodge podge of various units withdrawn into the forces fighting in the east/south, even if they're not shattered yet that will be a non-trivial administrative/reorg task.

One thing which is interesting imo, is the fact that they publicized this. Normally you wouldn't want to communicate a withdrawal because... well withdrawing forces are rather vulnerable imo. So if there wasn't some kind of agreement with Ukrainians it might just be a deception aimed at internal politics: no troops will be withdrawn but this is how some can explain the lack of progress; "in our noble wisdoms and to show our peaceful nature we decided to not push any further on Kiev" 😉 

A more realistic reason is that it's better to pretend it's a planned withdrawal and all is well, rather than their warmongering nation suddenly finding out that their forces, that should've taken Kyiv in 2 days, as was promised, simply ceased being alive.

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10 hours ago, panzermartin said:

We are acting like we (the people I guess) are going to win something from this war, while it's far from the truth. West is not as united as it seems. And this will be highlighted once the media gets bored from the war as its already starting . Many people at the states are angry with the handling of the Ukraine crisis since 2014 and have started facing shortages in food items and skyrocketed prices. Here in Europe...I don't want to think about what is coming but I can see the first signs. Gas is over 2e per liter, electricity is half a monthly wage. Ukraine is angry with NATO for letting their country get destroyed and I'm wondering how they imagine the day after the war is over, betrayed by the West and flattened by their neighbours. Germany clearly wasn't happy cutting painstakingly built ties with Russia, refused to embargo oil, and now it has to rely on ridiculously expensive LNG from the states. I bet France won't win really anything from this and will continue to get bullied from AUKUS like in the submarine torpedoed deal. Turkey, a pseudodemocracy/autocracy while always two faced and keeping close ties with Russia, is emerging as a respected key player and seems to win the impressions game, probably getting back on track with F35s *and* S400. While at the same time bullying NATO member neighbors and occupying northern Cyprus, wow! Lastly, it's an illusion that Europe can survive pretending that Russia doesn't exist on the map. I'm sorry but this what every serious analyst will tell us. Maybe people of the military and weapons industry can feel happy about the resurrection of NATO and army spending over welfare but the rest of us, not so.

Any of that was true if Russia was a civilized country you could adequately work with.

But russians want Europe. As in if nothing (e.g. NATO) was stopping them - their soldiers would be happily raping women on ruins of Portugal and France right now.

Trading with someone who wants to see you dead is a very bad idea - as we in Ukraine learned the hard way (once again, sigh).

And remember - natural gas was already $2000 per 1000 cubic meters for months prior to large scale attack as means to force EU to do Russia's bidding once again.

Anything never gets better if russians know they can get away with that anything.

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10 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Popular news, like most of the American public, is still captured in the 'WWII/Desert Storm.' War is all about capturing the enemy capital, humiliating them political, making a big peace signing in Tokyo Bay, etc. If Russia wasn't fighting for Kyiv what else is there to fight for, to the average CNN viewer? Could they even name another Ukrainian city? Doubtful. 

For russians the problem is that their largely falsified history is based on their whole country coming from Kyiv. So Kyiv to them is like a sacred, holy site without which their empire will not exist because it itself starts to seem like a lie.

Kyiv to russians is literally like Jerusalem for any medieval empire. They are hell bent on having it for centuries now.

Granted in the last 8 years they tried to heavily refalsify their mythology and make Novgorod be all end all, while making Kyiv seem like an unimportant town at an edge of nothing. Like "hey we own Novgorod, which was there before Kyiv so that must mean something".

For example it is forbidden to use the name "Kyivan Rus" in russian schools, it is "Ancient Rus" now.

But, as you can see in people's rage in official russian channels, that doesn't work because Novgorod is a real backwards hole nobody wants to live in, while Kyiv is a big geopolitical center.

Edited by kraze
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12 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I still dont know why you guys like this twitter dude so much. Hes just so aggressively wrong about important things

He had interesting insights on Russian political landscape and dynamics, and tried to put all of that into a historical context. But he goes off the rails quite a bit too... I haven't really checked him out in three weeks or so.

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46 minutes ago, kraze said:

Any of that was true if Russia was a civilized country you could adequately work with.

But russians want Europe. As in if nothing (e.g. NATO) was stopping them - their soldiers would be happily raping women on ruins of Portugal and France right now.

Trading with someone who wants to see you dead is a very bad idea - as we in Ukraine learned the hard way (once again, sigh).

And remember - natural gas was already $2000 per 1000 cubic meters for months prior to large scale attack as means to force EU to do Russia's bidding once again.

Anything never gets better if russians know they can get away with that anything.

For this to happen they still need a lot more brainwashing and more putinjugends. Obviously your tenacious defense played a role but they don't look like they actually want to fight in Ukraine in the first place how will they reach the Atlantic with that spirit. They will probably dissolve like in napoleonic times if they tried. 

But I understand your view on Russia though. And we may had some romanticed image of them, thinking they are one of us. I hope you don't  prove us so wrong. I just think that your country was betrayed by western forces and that in these 8 years they should have either built a fully preventing deal and force or stay away completely. That mid solution was an invitation for Russia to wreck havoc on you. You may be happy fighting them and getting some revenge but I find it immoral that they are actually using you as the spearhead without putting their hands in the dirt. Now they can't of course but this shouldnt have happened in the first place. 

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Un militaire ukrainien se tient près d’un char russe détruit dans la ville de Trostianets, dans le nord-est du pays, le 29 mars 2022. L’Ukraine a déclaré le 26 mars 2022 que ses forces avaient repris la ville de Trostianets, près de la frontière russe, l’une des premières villes à tomber sous le contrôle de Moscou lors de son invasion, il y a un mois.

A Ukrainian serviceman stands near a destroyed Russian tank in the northeastern town of Trostianets March 29, 2022. Ukraine said on March 26, 2022 that its forces had recaptured the town of Trostianets, near the Russian border, one of the first towns to fall under Moscow's control when it invaded a month ago. FADEL SENNA / AFP

* "Tank" seems to be a T-80 (4 Guards Tank Division ?)

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20 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

But I understand your view on Russia though.

Hmph, well your take is a lot more charitable than mine.  I still loathe that whole Asiatic mongrel (or was it inbreds?) untermenschen line our fellow traveler keeps pushing here. It's a dead end,  poison for the soul.

My Ukrainian/ Pale Jewish mischlinge inlaws (or their forbears) preferred swarthy Cossack rapists to gas vans and Babi Yar, thanks very much.

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7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I've been curious about the UKR holding action in the Donbass since D1. Some good units there, at real risk of encirclement. 

War on Donbas has other features and more similar to CM assault/defense scenaroius, than "active maneuver defense" and "shoot and scoot" actions on other directins. Our troops on Donbas since 2015 have established a grid of fortified strongpoints, so there we have more "classical" head-to-head warfare.  

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36 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmph, well your take is a lot more charitable than mine.  I still loathe that whole Asiatic mongrel (or was it inbreds?) untermenschen line our fellow traveler keeps pushing here. It's a dead end,  poison for the soul.

My Ukrainian/ Pale Jewish mischlinge inlaws (or their forbears) preferred swarthy Cossack rapists to gas vans and Babi Yar, thanks very much.

Yes, I hear you. But I have to give some credit to people that have been bullied by Russia for almost a century. I was never in their place...But again the only thing I havent read here yet is that russians eat their toothpaste or something, we are heading in that untermenschen, russophobic rhetoric again it seems. We can do better...

The funny thing is out of everyone, germans were the most murderous "species" in the recent history but being a part of our world we never treat them like we would treat Russia. They are respected, are the head of EU etc...We must come to realize fascism is an illness that comes from external factors primarily and not rooted in the genes of people.  

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