How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Fenris said:

I was thinking about all the trash too - have to remember these positions have probably been hastily rifled through by UKR forces.

It's not just from their extended stay in one place.  Time and time again I've seen hits on AFVs and light colored stuff is immediately scattered all over the place.  The stuff we're seeing, much of it, was no doubt scattered from hits.

My shock is the degree these units are packed to the gills with civilian items that then produce civilian trash.  Obviously we know the reason why... they don't have proper military rations.  The trash simply confirms it.

1 minute ago, Fenris said:

Also why are the sandbags white - are they for use in snow?  Would seem to be pretty counterproductive when there isn't any.

My guess is that, like everything else, the Russians didn't plan on needing them.  When they decided to go on the defensive they had to grab whatever they could.  I suspect these came from commercial sources and probably national level disaster response warehouses.  When you're trying to combat a flood you don't need dark colored sandbags.

Steve

[OldSarge]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly they dug trenches in so called Red forest and lived there about month. This place still deadly dangerous to this time. Even if you take a tour in Chernobyl or Prypyat' the guide track you, that you didn't go in the places when to this time enough high level of radoactive pollution.   

Looks like the RA soldiers were both careless and ignorant of the risks in the area

"Workers at the Chernobyl nuclear site said that Russian soldiers kicked up clouds of radioactive dust while driving through the toxic “Red Forest” zone without radiation protection

....

The Russian convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear while taking Chernobyl, which was “suicidal,” according to Chernobyl employees.

One employee said that the radioactive dust inhaled by Russian soldiers is likely to result in internal radiation in their bodies."

https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/600056-chernobyl-workers-say-unprotected-russians-kicked-up-radioactive

 

 

[dan/california]

At least ~50 guys per bus, yes? And with a VERY poor prognosis? From sheer ignorance, and a higher command that just doesn't give a bleep.

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly they dug trenches in so called Red forest and lived there about month. This place still deadly dangerous to this time. Even if you take a tour in Chernobyl or Prypyat', the guide track you, that you didn't go in the places when to this time enough high level of radoactive pollution.   

 

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Also why are the sandbags white - are they for use in snow?  Would seem to be pretty counterproductive when there isn't any.

Because this usual civilian-purpose type of polypropylene bags on post-Soviet space. UKR also use such bags %) Its can be other color, but white is more usual

[Fenris]

It will be interesting to learn how much of a role this kind of crowd sourced intel played once the RF is kicked out.

"#Skadovsk Kherson region, from 12-52 to 13-18 03/30/22 a large convoy passed"

 

[TheVulture]

5 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

The Russian convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear while taking Chernobyl, which was “suicidal,” according to Chernobyl employees.

One employee said that the radioactive dust inhaled by Russian soldiers is likely to result in internal radiation in their bodies."

Alpha radiation is bad for this as it isn't very penetrating, unlike gamma rays.

 A gamma ray source is equally dangerous no matter where it is - a certain flux will interact with the entire mass of your body with some degree of probability, and the rest pass through.

Conversely alpha radiation can be stopped by a piece of paper, so if it is external, it is basically not going to get past your clothes and not really cause you a significant problem. But if you breath in dust that is an alpha source, you have the opposite problem - it is now inside you and not getting out, so all the energy from the radioactive particles gets dumped into cell damage inside your body.

[danfrodo]

I believe UltraDave on this forum has a PhD in nuclear engineering so hopefully he'll chime in

[Fenris]

Good to see Mariupol isn't going all the RF's way

 

[Fenris]

Sir David Attenborough: "And here we see a flock of Ukrainian geese fiercely protecting their nests..."

 

[akd]

Chechens executing Banderite stoplight in Mariupol:

Well, that didn’t work out quite to plan:

 

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, OldSarge said:

One employee said that the radioactive dust inhaled by Russian soldiers is likely to result in internal radiation in their bodies.

Well, yeah. Kind of obvious. There's no "likely" about it. If it's radioactive, and you inhale it, you WILL be irradiated from internally ingested radioactive particulates.

Alpha particles, yes, can be stopped by a piece of paper, or, say, your lung tissue. Also an alpha particle is massive - it's a helium nucleus, so causes much more damage than other radiation. There shouldn't be any alpha emitters in the dust/soil around Chernobyl. Beta radiation is an electron, or positron (a + charge electron- antimatter actually). A beta particle also has little penetrating effect. Your skin will stop it.  So for example everyone was horrified at Fukushima workers wading through water that was beta radioactive - but at the levels there it was probably a sunburn effect. Gamma rays are highly energetic electromagnetic radiation - think highly energetic X-rays. They can pass through a lot but they will definitely interact with flesh and the lower energy ones will be more likely to be stopped, depositing all their energy, where a greater percentage of higher energy ones will pass through. But you can't think of it as just passing through without interacting. It WILL interact, but it just won't be slowed much. But every atom it hits it will deposit some energy along the way.

The problem with any radiation when you ingest it is that 1) it irradiates you internally, and the human body internally is very delicate once you get past protective skin 2) isotopes will concentrate in certain areas/organs due to their physical (non-nuclear) similarity to beneficial elements. For an example most are familiar with, in an active release it's Iodine-131 that is the biggest immediate concern. Iodine concentrates in the thyroid. That's why KI pills are issued - to flood the thyroid with good iodine so there are no receptors for I-131. And the half life of I-131 is pretty short, and it would pass by quickly. Biological half life is short too, so KI pills are effective (note they are effective for ONLY that scenario and isotope). And with all that thyroid cancer is among the most treatable and survivable of cancers.

But I digress. Strontium is one concern here. It's a fission product and in all spent fuel - which Chernobyl distributed all over Europe in varying amounts. It is physically/chemically similar to calcium so it will concentrate in bone marrow and bones, which can cause various issues with T-cells and B-cells that fight infections, mutating them and/or killing them. It releases betas and low energy gammas. Guess where else it shows up? Milk. Because, calcium. Cows eat the grass, and pass it into the milk. There are still areas that are restricted to grazing because strontium can be detected.

There is probably little external danger even after stirring up dust, AS LONG AS PROTECTIVE GEAR IS WORN, and after you pass through the gear is removed and decontaminated or disposed of properly. But they didn't do that. So likely they all breathed in fission products. How much, and how much of an effect, is anyone's guess really and probably won't show any effects for years.  I kind of doubt (but don't know for sure) that anyone would have received an acute dose that would make them ill or kill them. There ARE people living in the exclusion zone who moved back or never left, so the levels are not THAT severe. But, in general, don't inhale radioactive particulates.

Dave  

Edited March 30, 2022 by Ultradave

[Machor]

Revelations from the BBC investigation into the Syrian mercenaries being brought to Ukraine:

1- They were already being flown in "days after the invasion." I remember posting in this thread about the Syrians when Russian TV broke the news, and folks here were saying it was propaganda. At that time, they were already on their way to, if not within, Ukraine.

The Russians must have realized something was very wrong very early in the war, and scrambled to bring in cannon fodder.

2- The flights are avoiding Turkish airspace (even though it's open) as well as Georgia and Azerbaijan, resulting in a two-leg flight with a stop in Armenia, I assume for refueling:

"Ukraine war: The Syrians signing up to fight for Russia"

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-60931180

 

[Sequoia]

On 3/25/2022 at 10:27 AM, Battlefront.com said:

 

The problem with this analogy is that the will to fight Russians is rooted in the knowledge of what a Russian occupation would be like and what the long term aims of Russia are.  The US concept of nation building, though extremely flawed and riddled with hypocrisy, isn't the same sort of threat.  So it's really not a comparable situation.

I

 

Hi Steve,

 

Re: This post from Friday (which is ancient history on this thread I know), I don't suppose you could recommend some good reading material on the US's (etc) failures at COIN this century that is anywhere near as good as the analysis on the current war I 've been reading in this thread?

 

Thanks

 

 

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Well, yeah. Kind of obvious. There's no "likely" about it. If it's radioactive, and you inhale it, you WILL be irradiated from internally ingested radioactive particulates.

Alpha particles, yes, can be stopped by a piece of paper, or, say, your lung tissue. Also an alpha particle is massive - it's a helium nucleus, so causes much more damage than other radiation. There shouldn't be any alpha emitters in the dust/soil around Chernobyl. Beta radiation is an electron, or positron (a + charge electron- antimatter actually). A beta particle also has little penetrating effect. Your skin will stop it.  So for example everyone was horrified at Fukushima workers wading through water that was beta radioactive - but at the levels there it was probably a sunburn effect. Gamma rays are highly energetic electromagnetic radiation - think highly energetic X-rays. They can pass through a lot but they will definitely interact with flesh and the lower energy ones will be more likely to be stopped, depositing all their energy, where a greater percentage of higher energy ones will pass through. But you can't think of it as just passing through without interacting. It WILL interact, but it just won't be slowed much. But every atom it hits it will deposit some energy along the way.

The problem with any radiation when you ingest it is that 1) it irradiates you internally, and the human body internally is very delicate once you get past protective skin 2) isotopes will concentrate in certain areas/organs due to their physical (non-nuclear) similarity to beneficial elements. For an example most are familiar with, in an active release it's Iodine-131 that is the biggest immediate concern. Iodine concentrates in the thyroid. That's why KI pills are issued - to flood the thyroid with good iodine so there are no receptors for I-131. And the half life of I-131 is pretty short, and it would pass by quickly. Biological half life is short too, so KI pills are effective (note they are effective for ONLY that scenario and isotope). And with all that thyroid cancer is among the most treatable and survivable of cancers.

But I digress. Strontium is one concern here. It's a fission product and in all spent fuel - which Chernobyl distributed all over Europe in varying amounts. It is physically/chemically similar to calcium so it will concentrate in bone marrow and bones, which can cause various issues with T-cells and B-cells that fight infections, mutating them and/or killing them. It releases betas and low energy gammas. Guess where else it shows up? Milk. Because, calcium. Cows eat the grass, and pass it into the milk. There are still areas that are restricted to grazing because strontium can be detected.

There is probably little external danger even after stirring up dust, AS LONG AS PROTECTIVE GEAR IS WORN, and after you pass through the gear is removed and decontaminated or disposed of properly. But they didn't do that. So likely they all breathed in fission products. How much, and how much of an effect, is anyone's guess really and probably won't show any effects for years.  I kind of doubt (but don't know for sure) that anyone would have received an acute dose that would make them ill or kill them. There ARE people living in the exclusion zone who moved back or never left, so the levels are not THAT severe. But, in general, don't inhale radioactive particulates.

Dave  

You are of course correct in all the technical details. But I think you are REALLY underestimating both the Russians ability to be utterly pigheaded in the dumbest possible way, and how much the Russia care about their troops. For pigheaded stupidity, i would cite everything in Ukraine,  for the concern the Russian army has shown for keeping their soldiers alive, well ,everything in Ukraine. They would not have pulled these guys out for a little unexplainable sun burn, I would bet a LOT of money they had florid severe symptoms. I am mildly surprised they didn't just write them up as KIA to avoid the  embarrassment.

 

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, Machor said:

Revelations from the BBC investigation into the Syrian mercenaries being brought to Ukraine:

1- They were already being flown in "days after the invasion." I remember posting in this thread about the Syrians when Russian TV broke the news, and folks here were saying it was propaganda. At that time, they were already on their way to, if not within, Ukraine.

The Russians must have realized something was very wrong very early in the war, and scrambled to bring in cannon fodder.

2- The flights are avoiding Turkish airspace (even though it's open) as well as Georgia and Azerbaijan, resulting in a two-leg flight with a stop in Armenia, I assume for refueling:

"Ukraine war: The Syrians signing up to fight for Russia"

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-60931180

 

What was said was the Russian figure of 16,000 was BS and that was coming from the US intelligence community.  This article is a lot of speculation with little actual concrete detail.  They cited one plane, but to move 16,000 you would need quite a few more.  I don't doubt there are some folks going, but if there were even half that 16,000 the Ukrainians would have identified at least some.  Could be, but I haven't seen anything to indicate they are showing up and I'd be curious to see how they are integrating them.  Language barriers will be a pain until they are dead,

Edited March 30, 2022 by sburke

[Ultradave]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

You are of course correct in all the technical details. But I think you are REALLY underestimating both the Russians ability to be utterly pigheaded in the dumbest possible way, and how much the Russia care about their troops. For pigheaded stupidity, i would cite everything in Ukraine,  for the concern the Russian army has shown for keeping their soldiers alive, well ,everything in Ukraine. They would not have pulled these guys out for a little unexplainable sun burn, I would bet a LOT of money they had florid severe symptoms. I am mildly surprised they didn't just write them up as KIA to avoid the  embarrassment.

 

Well, maybe. I don't know and they aren't saying. They wouldn't have gotten sunburned. But they will have internal exposure which will continue. The comment that it was "suicidal" may be a bit of hyperbole. But who knows. Likely we will never know.

Dave

[danfrodo]

well, on a sidebar kind of topic.  I do hope this results in lots of interest in CMBS.  I've seen some really good youtube videos that really show how good BS is at simulating what's actually going on.  One BS video showed ambush of a convoy that was right out of the feeds we see from Ukraine.

[Phantom Captain]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

In such a situation I doubt very much any surviving Russians had any thought of spending the time to set them up.

Man, I can't get over the amount of civilian type trash there is after Russian vehicles get knocked out.

Steve

It makes me wonder how much of it is from looting?  Is this proof of how much of that they are doing?

Edited March 30, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[Kraft]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/krieg-in-der-ukraine-bundesregierung-will-kiew-lange-liste-mit-waffen-anbieten-a-8fe6d35c-d3b3-4ce7-aa60-ea9b62dd3d4b

The German government wants to offer Ukraine more weapons systems as soon as possible to strengthen the resistance against the Russian army. According to SPIEGEL information, a round of state secretaries from the ministries involved agreed on Tuesday to offer the government in Kiev a list of various weapons systems in the next few days. After that, Ukraine is to decide for itself which weapons it can best use.

The Excel list, however, now makes it clear that almost all reservations against arms deliveries to Ukraine have been dropped. In addition to a lot of protective material, the list also includes heavy military equipment such as mortars or heavy machine guns of the type GAM B01 from the manufacturer Rheinmetall. According to the manufacturer's offer, the heavy weapons cost a good one million euros each.

There is also plenty of high-tech material listed. For example, Thales offers to supply ground radar systems of the "Squire" type. Thales also offers twelve mortars mounted on trailers, which, according to the manufacturer, could be delivered to Ukraine as early as this week. The delivery of thousands of night vision devices, protective waistcoats, helmets - but also modern drones to monitor the battlefield - would also be possible.

In total, the list includes possible arms deliveries worth 308 million euros. More than half of this amount is for reconnaissance equipment, such as night-vision devices or radar systems - but also for ultra-modern micro-drones equipped with jammers to cut off the mobile radio signal. A good 40 million are for hand-held weapons, almost 80 million for equipment such as protective waistcoats or helmets

[Machor]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I don't doubt there are some folks going, but if there were even half that 16,000 the Ukrainians would have identified at least some.  Could be, but I haven't seen anything to indicate they are showing up and I'd be curious to see how they are integrating them.

My emphasis is not the 16,000 figure, but the fact that they started bringing them in - at least one planeload of them - so early in the war. This in itself shows that something with the Russian planning went amiss right at the very beginning.

Seeing they are being flown into Mozdok, I wouldn't be surprised if they're integrated with the Chechens, many of whom have already served in Syria as Russian military police.

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Machor said:

My emphasis is not the 16,000 figure, but the fact that they started bringing them in - at least one planeload of them - so early in the war. This in itself shows that something with the Russian planning went amiss right at the very beginning.

Seeing they are being flown into Mozdok, I wouldn't be surprised if they're integrated with the Chechens, many of whom have already served in Syria as Russian military police.

could also be yet another pathetic attempt at political spin: "look,this miltary operation is a coalition of freedom loving folk from all over the world coming to rid Ukraine of nazis".  

[Machor]

Contrarian take, FWIW. I do at least agree with the last paragraph I'm quoting below - all opposition in Russia has been crushed for good:

"What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?"

By Bret Stephens

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html?referringSource=articleShare

"The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated."

"The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions."

"But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?"

"When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?"

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s)."

"Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance."

"“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors."

"If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be."

"It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons."

"Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions."

 

 

[Machor]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

could also be yet another pathetic attempt at political spin: "look,this miltary operation is a coalition of freedom loving folk from all over the world coming to rid Ukraine of nazis".  

No doubt the scenes on Russian TV were aimed at that. But the actual hiring of mercenaries is to address a military need, and apparently one that Russia didn't anticipate.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Machor said:

Contrarian take, FWIW. I do at least agree with the last paragraph I'm quoting below - all opposition in Russia has been crushed for good:

"What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?"

By Bret Stephens

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html?referringSource=articleShare

"The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated."

"The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions."

"But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?"

"When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?"

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s)."

"Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance."

"“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors."

"If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be."

"It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons."

"Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions."

 

 

Regarding Syrians.  i'd be surprised if Russia understood within days of the invasion they needed more troops.  I expect it is more likely that was Wagner or Russian units out of Syria.  Russia's performance so far doesn't impress me enough to think they would react that quickly.  I expect Russia was in utter shock at how badly the war was going that first week, but not fully comprehending.

Regarding the above.  I read that earlier today.  I frankly don't understand his argument unless he has some deluded perception that Russia is going to retain the whole Black Sea coast which thought is completely undermined by the preceding paragraphs.  I think the reality is Putin really is the loser we think he is.  He way overplayed his hand for whatever reason.

[dan/california]

This is funny!