dan/california Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Fenris said: What model of AK is Vlad holding? Has a drum and some sort of sight but I can't see a bipod or is it just a AK74 with a drum? Bleep me he is young, or at least he was month ago... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Captain Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Fenris said: What model of AK is Vlad holding? Has a drum and some sort of sight but I can't see a bipod or is it just a AK74 with a drum? Looks like an old 7.62 AK-47 with a drum. Upon zooming in it could be a butchered RPK though too. The front sight is chopped off to accommodate the scope and the bipod lug could have been cut off, although the butt stock would be wrong then. So yeah, just an old AK is my guess. Edited March 30, 2022 by Phantom Captain 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machor Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Many pages back in this thread, I had speculated Ukraine could operate TB2s from the road network for survival. Here's evidence indicating that, indeed, is the practice: These are MAM-Ls for TB2 captured by Russians. Note how they were stashed like insurgent weapons, and the hay on the floor hardly fits in with an airbase. I'm guessing these missiles were stashed as part of a clandestine network of rearming & refueling points for the TB2s: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 27 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said: Looks like an old 7.62 AK-47 with a drum. Upon zooming in it could be a butchered RPK though too. The front sight is chopped off to accommodate the scope and the bipod lug could have been cut off, although the butt stock would be wrong then. So yeah, just an old AK is my guess. Yes you might be right. Now that I look at the longer shot, it's a bit blurry but there's doesn't appear to be any muzzle break. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elmar Bijlsma Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 About the depot going up in flames: What if someone showed up to actually take stock, and the people in charge prefer the counting starts and stops at one giant hole in the ground? A theory I've come up with more because I enjoy it than that I believe it. Or maybe the depot told a joke about Jada Pinkett-Smith? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said: About the depot going up in flames: What if someone showed up to actually take stock, and the people in charge prefer the counting starts and stops at one giant hole in the ground? A theory I've come up with more because I enjoy it than that I believe it. Or maybe the depot told a joke about Jada Pinkett-Smith? ammo is harder to sell than most things I would think. Unless of course they were selling to the Ukrainians. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, dan/california said: My quick count is approximately fifty CONFIRMED Russian vehicle losses. So they are continuing to lose about a BTG per DAY. They can't do that indefinitely, or even for vey long. Keep in mind Oryx has a backlog of +150 vehicles. How many are added per day is rather dependent on his ability to verify and add them without losing his personal life for another month. Someone up to do an excel on total tanks, IFVs,.. per day / week / ..? Edited March 30, 2022 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 hours ago, The_Capt said: I honestly do not know. Ukraine is in a tricky situation right now. Unless they want this thing to drag on for months they need Russia to have an out (as in "get the hell out") but at the same time they need to keep up the pressure so that Russia does not get too comfortable. And we're back to the point I made within the first hours of this war... time is not on Russia's side. That is truer every day that ticks by. By accelerating certain trends now, Ukraine can decrease the amount of time Russia has before total collapse. One of the best ways we've found to counter Russia's playbook is to STOP DOING WHAT THEY EXPECT and instead do the exact opposite. The outing of Russia's plans ahead of the war was the best example and biggest success so far. But there's been others, such as not being afraid of retaliation for arming and training Ukrainians to explicitly fight Russia for the past 6+ years. Another was not doing anything to get Minsk 2 implemented. Boy has that made Putin mad! And of course my favorite one of all... Ukraine's decision to not offer military resistance when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. That one, right there, saved Ukraine more than anything else. OK, so what's my point? Ukraine should be doing things now that are deliberately tailored to counter Russia's strategic plans. And yes, do have a strategic plan... in tatters and unrealistic as it might be, it's still a plan. Specifically: Russia deliberately drags out negotiations in order to buy time to gain more advantage. Ukraine appears to be doing exactly that right now, so probably good on this one. Russia uses body counts and destruction to force its opponent to give up strategic goals. Ukraine is doing a good job with Russian body counts and destruction, but I think it could do more (see below) Perception is more important than substance when it comes to Russia's message to the Russian people. So, do more to create the perception that Russia is going to militarily lose this war. Taking 1000 prisoners and marching them into captivity would certainly do that. Liberating Kherson would do that. Reciprocate provocative moves by Russia with rough equivalents. For example, loudly proclaiming a new school curriculum to educate Ukrainian children about Russian Fascism and how it is bad for Russian speaking peoples and their neighbors. Russia loves to stir up trouble across its borders, so Ukraine should be doing all kinds of thing to stir up trouble in Belarus. Including taking the Belorussian volunteers and having them conduct partisan attacks on Belorussian soil and blame the Belorussian military for it. Or just send the volunteers over to start up armed resistance on behalf of Belorussians. Some of these things take time to develop, true, which is why they should start now. Look at what Russia is doing with trying to force municipal governance and school curriculum changes in places where the burnt out Russian tanks are still somewhat warm. As for Ukraine increasing body counts and destruction to increase Russia's pain level, there are options. I'm going to make this a new post... Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sross112 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 I don't think the RA is out of the fight yet. They don't stand a chance around the capitol at this point but I don't think they are done at all. A couple days ago there was a report of 4-5 BTG's shifting out of the Kyiv advances and then today we see some VDV doing the same. Just those movements in and of themselves show that they still have supply and transport capability. Yes I know that their logistics have been a ****show from the beginning and that they have been significantly degraded, I'm just saying their value is still above 0. The same goes for the RA combat power, it is still above 0. Maybe not by a lot but they are still capable of attempting something, again, maybe not completing but they can still attempt. My bet is that those forces resurface on the Izyum axis. Putin's only hope for a "victory" is to secure the Donbas region. He has to do this at all costs and that is where we will see all the effort from here on out. The forces around Kyiv will continue to roll back and may even end up being a route back to the border but it is definitely a secondary effort at this point. As for the UKA in the south, looking at the maps and seeing the RA possibly getting ready to blow the Kherson bridges I'd think the best target would be Melitopol-Mariopul then advance along through Melitopol towards Kherson. Then they aren't trying to fight across the Dnepr as they are already behind it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Russia loves to stir up trouble across its borders, so Ukraine should be doing all kinds of thing to stir up trouble in Belarus. Including taking the Belorussian volunteers and having them conduct partisan attacks on Belorussian soil and blame the Belorussian military for it. Or just send the volunteers over to start up armed resistance on behalf of Belorussians. Belarus rebelling is not necessary for the Ukrainians to win, but a successful rebellion in Belarus makes this a 100% total loss for Putin. It would be an unspinnable, unfixable, epic disaster. Even an unsuccessful rebellion in Belarus Probably turns every Russian soldier on the west side of Kyiv into a POW. Absolutely anything and everything should be pursued to make this happen. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 If I held an advisory position within the Ukrainian military, and they were not pursuing anything novel that we've not seen yet, I'd suggest something like this... Employ a hybrid conventional/partisan strategy that maximizes terror and body counts directly behind the Russian front lines. Not deep in the rear, right in the thick of things all the while GoPro and Drone TikToking the Hell out of it. Then making sure Russian soldiers who weren't there get to see it. Normally conventional attacks try to maintain clear lines of lines of communication, partisan attacks do not. This gives the attacker enormous freedom of action while also restricting the defender's. One shortcoming of a pure partisan strategy is that resupply bases are difficult to maintain as they are vulnerable and tend to lack easy resupply. Going back to Ukrainian territory solves both of those problems. At the strategic level I'd pick a single sector of front where Russia forces are fairly thin. I'd put 2 battalions of light infantry with 3-4 days worth of food and ammunition behind the existing frontline forces. At least 3 very narrow sectors of front (1km or so) would be identified based on enemy forces and terrain that provides good cover for infiltration. Tactically I'd break up my light infantry into autonomous platoon sized groups and stack them behind the insertion points. Each would have separate vectors to move along that are spread enough apart that one could offer assistance to a neighbor if need be. Known or suspected enemy positions would be either marked ahead of time for bypass or attack from the most vulnerable approach. No more than 1 days' march away from their start points they'd head back via a different route to where they started. Always keep on the move and don't stay in one place for more than an hour or two. Intention would be back behind friendly lines within 2 days with 2 days of supplies for contingencies. As dusk neared the three chosen points would be completely obliterated at the same time. Two of which would be chosen for infiltration, the others would be decoys. The conventional forces that broke the raiders through the lines would hold the door open for their return. After returning in 1-2 days the raiders would be refreshed and sent in again at a different location, but perhaps the same sector of front. While the raiders are out in the field shooting stuff up the conventional forces would apply pressure on the front line along the entire sector, at a minimum holding down the forces there and obligating reserves to be committed to holding the front while the raiders shoot up the rear. Any obvious opportunities to move the line forward would be taken.s allow. The intention of these attacks? Destroy the local Russians' will to fight by racking up large amounts of Russian KIA/WIA in the most frightening way... up close and personal. Any survivors are bound to flee in panic and panic spreads, so that's almost as good as killing them. Any equipment destroyed or abandoned is a bonus, not a core goal. possible, but focus on the soldiers more. Do not have any intention of holding ground at all. Once Russian soldiers figure this out they will have to change their behavior to all around defense posture. That is extremely difficult and tiring to do. Mentally, it is debilitating. Even if Russian forces don't collapse, they will be lethargic sometimes to the point of insubordination. This can work. If it does, it shortens Russia's ability to keep the war going. If it goes really well, a spectacular 1917 style collapse is possible. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, sross112 said: I don't think the RA is out of the fight yet. They don't stand a chance around the capitol at this point but I don't think they are done at all. A couple days ago there was a report of 4-5 BTG's shifting out of the Kyiv advances and then today we see some VDV doing the same. The assessment of those forces is that they are largely spent. Yes, they could be used to bolster another sector that is itself spent, but it's not like these are fresh forces full of piss and vinegar. They are hammered already. See previous post of mine where I compare this to the Germans moving the remains of the Bulge attack forces to Hungary to mount an attack there. Was the Hungarian attack made more successful by having the forces from the Western Front added to their OBs? Yes. But it didn't make a difference because, as Hauser "joked", it was called the 6th Army because it had just 6 tanks. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, dan/california said: Belarus rebelling is not necessary for the Ukrainians to win, but a successful rebellion in Belarus makes this a 100% total loss for Putin. It would be an unspinnable, unfixable, epic disaster. Even an unsuccessful rebellion in Belarus Probably turns every Russian soldier on the west side of Kyiv into a POW. Absolutely anything and everything should be pursued to make this happen. More immediately it would disrupt a major part of Russia's war effort and logistics investments. This would then free up a large amount of Ukraine's combat power to move south and east. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 These will be useful. Anyone know how much are a pair of these are worth? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 From ISW's March 29th report is yet more confirmation of Russia's strategic need, and failure to secure, significant replacements: Quote Russia reportedly continues to struggle in its efforts to generate new combat power and replenish equipment. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 29 that Russian troops are drawing equipment out of long-term storage in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast, but that 40% of that equipment is inoperable.[1] The General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight.[2] We have no independent confirmation of these assessments, but Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s March 29 statement that Russia would not deploy conscripts to “hot spots” corroborates assessments of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to enter the war.[3] The UK Ministry of Defense reported on March 28 that the Wagner Group is deploying forces, including senior leaders, to eastern Ukraine to make up for heavy Russian combat losses.[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-29 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 I've been curious about the UKR holding action in the Donbass since D1. Some good units there, at real risk of encirclement. But, there is a value in letting the Russians attempt a kettle - to do so, they would need to put their best units at the tips,which means they are in a relatively constrained, though moving, kill box. They are dangerous and tough, yes, but they are also out on a limb in hostile territory. So, if RUS does go for the Izium/Mariupol cinching, it risks a repeat of the Kiev process - over extended arms, with interfered logistics, attacked constantly on all sides. The encircling forces could themselves get cut off, logistically and soon tactically. By trapping two groups of badly needed competent troops UKR could gut the overall combat effectiveness of the SE AO, opening the possibility of retaking Kherson/Mariupol. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Evidence that Russia is preparing for the possibility of abandoning Kherson. Why else would you mine your own supply line over a huge river? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAZmaj Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 19 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said: Thanks for the (very interesting) factoid. Any ideas where could I find more about the story of how the Slovenian government got those anti-tank weapons? https://sl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armbrust Translation: Armbrust is a German hand-held non-refractory mortar developed in the late 1960s by the German firm Messerschmitt Bölkow-Blohm. The production of rocket launchers began in Belgium, and was used mainly by units of the Federal Republic of Germany and the Army of Cameroon and several Asian countries. Development Mortars began to be developed around 1970 at the German Messerschmitt Bölkov-Blohm factory, which was known for making helicopters, missiles and other high-tech equipment. The development of the mortar took several years, as the weapons differed greatly from the then hand-held non-refractory mortars. Serial production began at the Belgian PRB factory and later elsewhere. The advantages of this weapon over other hitherto known rocket launchers were: it did not emit flames or smoke from the barrel, bursts less than a pistol, is easy to use, and requires no special maintenance. All these properties mean that the rocket launcher can be used indoors, near flammable substances or. everywhere. The shooter can take up a firing position anywhere without worrying about being betrayed by mortar smoke. Its good feature is also ease of use and training. The mortar allows hitting targets up to 300m. In addition to good qualities, a weapon also has some bad ones: weight, penetration and price. Description The armbrust consists of a tube, a sighting device, a trigger and carrying parts. The barrel contains a projectile, propellant powder charge, two pistons and a counterweight. The gunpowder charge is located in the middle of the tube between the two pistons. In front of the front piston is a projectile, and behind the rear piston is a counterweight in the form of a block of plastic tiles. The tube is narrowed at both ends, which prevents the pistons from leaving the tube, which ensures that the powder gases do not leave the tube after launch. These are released slowly so the bang is minimal, only the movement of moving parts is heard. The instability of the mortar is due to the movement of the mine forward and the counterweight backwards. The measuring device is of the reflex type and is installed in the housing on the left side of the pipe. It is folded in the housing during transport and is turned outwards by the shooter before use. The measuring device has no magnification, on the right edge of the field of view are marked firing distances of 150-500m, and in the middle are crosshairs. The trigger mechanism contains a piezoelectric element that generates the electric current required to ignite the drive charge when the trigger is pressed. Triggering can be repeated if the first attempt fails. To wear or. the holder has a mortar pistol grip, shoulder support, front support, carrying handle and strap. These parts also allow shooting from a standing, kneeling, sitting and lying position. Use Armbrust is a disposable weapon, so the user discards it after use. The shooter must not cover the rear end of the barrel with his body, and there must be no obstacles 80 cm behind the rear of the barrel. The mortar must be protected from external environmental influences and cannot be disassembled into smaller parts. A special version of this mortar has been developed for training purposes, which has a built-in 17mm caliber barrel and uses ammunition similar to the original. Unlike the real thing, the training mortar can be reused. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten-Day_War https://www.quora.com/How-bad-were-the-Yugoslav-Wars-for-Slovenia More in the few days. armbrust-486debde-1876-4584-b8a3-7805b3cadac-resize-750.webp 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Boy are the Russians and Chechens sloppy: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAZmaj Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Yes, but it remains to be seen how much these shattered forces can do when used as reinforcements for shattered forces. An analogy was that when Germany called off the Operation Wacht Am Rhein it freed up forces for the Frühlingserwachen counter attack around Budapest. Did moving the remains of the 6th Panzer Army from Belgium to Hungary make an impact on the counter attack? Yes. Enough of an impact to change the overall strategic picture? Absolutely not. The fundamental problem for the Russians is it is too late to change the situation on the ground in any meaningful way. They needed to have done this sort of thing starting Day 1 or within the first week. Not surprised to hear this. It was expected domestic disruption could be overcome. Even if they had to resort to cash transactions. Making international transactions, on the other hand, is (as expected) dead in the water. Somewhere I stumbled upon a interview with a lesser known Russian oligarch detailing how thorough and sudden his access to financial resources is. He even wondered if he could afford his house keeper and if his daughter would have to learn how to drive. That's a big change for someone with theoretical billions in wealth. Steve ...step-daughter to drive him since he cannot drive... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAZmaj Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 11 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said: So Russians cannot prevent China to occupy eastern Siberia! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, CAZmaj said: So Russians cannot prevent China to occupy eastern Siberia! Except, I suppose, by turning China into radioactive glass.... Edited March 30, 2022 by LongLeftFlank 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) Could the Ukrainians blow it before the the Russians get back over it? It would utterly trap anybody on the western side. Edited March 30, 2022 by dan/california added would 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Captain Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: Except, I suppose, by turning China into radioactive glass.... Wolverines!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) For sure. It's not a very heavy structure, as bridges go. But, everything is repairable/span-able, given time and no interference (read, arty/PGM). What might actually work would be for UKR to blow the bridge themselves, right now, trapping a large chunk of the 49th and making the airport even more important, to the delight of UKR Msta operators... This would also put the onus on RUS to repair the bridge, concentrating specialist bridging units into a small space, ripe for plastering. Losing the bridge would also interfere with repo-ing RUS troops reinforcing the coming push north from Mariupol. So, by isolating the forward combat units of 49th, UKR locks itself out of the Crimea for a time, but gives it more resources to defeat the attempted encirclement of the JFO forces. Break the spine of that attempt, trap the core of the 49th and what does Putin have left? Mariupol? By locking up Kherson and feeding into Donbass, UKR remains fundamentally on the defensive, where it's current advantages lie. Losing something to gain a bigger thing with longer, deeper implications. @Battlefront.com your light Infantry, ww1-style storm-truppen idea absolutely has merit - but flip the board and give us the RUS counter to it. I suspect a re-inf'd COY sized RRFs and intensive surveillance are the only true counters, personally... Edited March 30, 2022 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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