How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

"Marina Ovsiannikova burst onto the set live"

Keep believin'

Looks like that psyop was indeed targeted at the West because prior to the stunt it became known that EU was voting for sanctions on the next day that included Konstantin Ernst, an owner of the First Channel, as well as the channel itself. His hope was probably that if he shows that "not all journos are pro-war" EU will not throw the hammer down on him and his biz as those "good russians" will suffer.

But EU did.

And that court case against Ovsiannikova, where she was accused of all the horrors with seemingly having to serve 15 years in prison, immediately ended with... her having to pay a fine of $100.

That's all folks.

[Cobetco]

17 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Firing S-8 rockets in indirect fashion. They must be afraid of something...

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1504206880872275980?s=20&t=1OkHlv0HZjabDVM-q_Iguw

I think being drunk is part of the pre-flight check. that or they wanted to go home. 
"we expended our ammo, very successful sortie." 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Grey_Fox]

55 minutes ago, kraze said:

And that court case against Ovsiannikova, where she was accused of all the horrors with seemingly having to serve 15 years in prison, immediately ended with... her having to pay a fine of $100.

Market exchange rates don't reflect the real cost of the fine in purchasing power terms. While the ruble is nearly worthless outside Russia, it's not as worthless in Russia.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Grey_Fox

[The_MonkeyKing]

MI-28 and KA-52 actually firing in the air to avoid combat? Not one but two doing this.

Can anyone definitely say there is no tactically legitimate way of using rockets like this? Any doctrine for this?

[Offshoot]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Can anyone definitely say there is no tactically legitimate way of using rockets like this? Any doctrine for this?

They spotted a drone...

[DesertFox]

Maybe this is an indication for something happening soon. We´ll see.

 

 

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, domfluff said:

In what world would a website called "anti 5g" be a remotely credible source.

domfluff,

Believe the domain name reflects a concern of the site operator, if that's the right term. You seem to have seized on that domain name as an excuse to reject out of hand what's on the link. Did you bother to look at what Lt. Col.,  Ret., Douglas MacGregor said, or have you simply rejected it sight unseen because the domain name put you off? By the way, I could've used his interview with Tucker Carlson on his show on FOX, but then I'm sure there would've been a chorus rejecting the information because a) it was FOX and, b) on Tucker Carlson's show. In the interest of giving MacGregor's important thoughts and assessments a chance to be seen. without that TV overlay, I went and found what I needed in text form instead. And still got grief over it!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Grey_Fox]

2 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

domfluff,

Believe the domain name reflects a concern of the site operator, if that's the right term. You seem to have seized on that domain name as an excuse to reject out of hand what's on the link. Did you bother to look at what Lt. Col.,  Ret., Douglas MacGregor said, or have you simply rejected it sight unseen because the domain name put you off? By the way, I could've used his interview with Tucker Carlson on his show on FOX, but then I'm sure there would've been a chorus rejecting the information because a) it was FOX and, b) on Tucker Carlson's show. In the interest of giving MacGregor's important thoughts and assessments a chance to be seen. without that TV overlay, I went and found what I needed in text form instead. And still got grief over it!

Regards,

John Kettler

Linking to a whackjob conspiracy site because you think Fox, as bad as they are, would be worse...

[John Kettler]

29 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

MI-28 and KA-52 actually firing in the air to avoid combat? Not one but two doing this.

Can anyone definitely say there is no tactically legitimate way of using rockets like this? Any doctrine for this?

TheMonkeyKing,

By my count, 3--2 x Mi-28 and 1 x Ka-52. In the GPW, this kind of stunt (which would assuredly have been viewed as  Failing to Complete a Combat Order and Sabotage, too) would've rated a field tribunal if discovered, but given what seems to be an almost general acute lack of discipline in the Russian military in Ukraine, there may not be any consequences at all, even if the video is seen. At this stage, higher is probably thrilled anyone is willing to fly into the ever worsening high density mixed tail chase and all-aspect MANPADS threat, never mind all the others. An Osa, for example, would work just great vs either type of attack helicopter (huge radar targets), a Pantsir-S1 would eat them alive, but I doubt a Buk-M1 or M2 would be fired, being reserved for more valuable and dangerous targets, such as a Klub. Nor would an S-300 series be employed, either.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

3 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

Linking to a whackjob conspiracy site because you think Fox, as bad as they are, would be worse...

Gray_Fox,

Did you read it, or are you rejecting the message simply because you don't like where it appeared? Have seen Douglas MacGregor interviewed on TV, and I can tell you the interview text reads just like he talks. I see no evidence his words have been tampered with, elided, or rephrased. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, db_zero said:

Missiles and air strikes are a one and done type of deal. Sustained artillery fire is a different story.

If you look on the map you can see that already about a week or even more ALL Kyiv is in killzone of Russian MLRS - from Grads to Smerch and many districts can be targeted with 152 mm artillery. But... We have only 2-3 criuse missiles at 5:00 of morning, most of which is intercepting by or AD. Last Russian jet flew over Kyiv approx 1th-2nd of March. 

So, I сan guess two things:

1. Russian have restrictins to ruine Kyiv like Kharkiv or Mariuol

2. Our drone recon, SOF, Bayraktars and counter-battery fire (not only in Russia artillery is a god of war) force Russians to keep all this stuff too far. Or all this busy with tasks of own troops support and havn't time and enough ammunition to fire on the city.

I guess both versions can take place simultainously. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grey_Fox]

8 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Gray_Fox,

Did you read it, or are you rejecting the message simply because you don't like where it appeared? Have seen Douglas MacGregor interviewed on TV, and I can tell you the interview text reads just like he talks. I see no evidence his words have been tampered with, elided, or rephrased. 

Regards,

John Kettler

I did not, because it's a whackjob conspiracy site with who knows what kind of internet security issues.

[Kinophile]

From UKR Armed Forces, its saying 14,000..which? Kia? Casualties?

 

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

From UKR Armed Forces, its saying 14,000..which? Kia? Casualties?

ESTIMATED casualties

Also fuel tanks means "railway". Other fuel tankers include to truck losses. Aviation losses probably need to be halved, I think. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Machor said:

When this is all over, someone will need to make this into a scenario - would be interesting to try to 'win' as the Russians. I will quote only the parts relevant for wargaming, but highly recommend reading the whole article (the looting is especially damning):

For the last few years I've been trying to come up with a scenario where it would be possible for Russia to win without full mobilization of its economy and population.  Something I don't view as practical.  And I never came up with one.  Which is why when I, and others, started taking the possibility of a full invasion seriously (some a few days before like me, some only on the first day) we all independently came to the same conclusion... Russia is going to lose this war because there is no way they can win it.

Steve

[Machor]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

(not only in Russia artillery is a god of war)

Jumping on Haiduk's post, it is worth remembering we are witnessing the clash of TWO ex-Soviet armies: Senior Ukrainian officers received the same training as their Russian counterparts. This means they will prioritize two things:

1- Fires

2- Urban defense

[Battlefront.com]

About those helicopters aiming their rockets upwards...

Both helicopters are doing the same thing, so that means the first one wasn't a fluke.  The rockets are unguided, so giving them more upward angle will make them go further.  That's just basic physics.  But these rockets are terribly inaccurate even when launched at a target using LOS, therefore it doesn't take a rocket scientist (haha!) to know that it's not likely they hit whatever their target is.

So, either they knowingly fired the rockets to randomly impact a civilian area (sadly, this is possible) or they didn't want to get near the target and so fired early so they can go home with with all boxes checked.  Logged flight data would likely be close enough that it wouldn't be suspicious to anybody checking up on them.

Let's say it's the latter.  This means at least two sets of crews conspired to be ineffective at a minimum.  It's even possible that it went up one level of command if the unit is tight with each other.  Especially if they've suffered casualties within their "family" already.

Whatever the case is, this is a piss-poor use of tactical aircraft.

Steve

[panzermartin]

I remember when playing Digital integrations's super realistic Tornado back in 1990s, they had some some pretty sophisticated loft bombing mode on the HUD, that achieved some accuracy with lobbing dumb bombs from a distance like artillery. But I guess thats not a system intergrated in an attack helicopter and especially in unguided inaccurate rockets. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by panzermartin

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Grey_Fox said:

Market exchange rates don't reflect the real cost of the fine in purchasing power terms. While the ruble is nearly worthless outside Russia, it's not as worthless in Russia.

It's 30000 rubles which is literally nothing for a long time state propaganda creator that was paid in thousands of dollars. So it's just a symbolic sum to report at least something and swipe the failed op under the rug.

[Tank Hunter]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For the last few years I've been trying to come up with a scenario where it would be possible for Russia to win without full mobilization of its economy and population.  Something I don't view as practical.  And I never came up with one.  Which is why when I, and others, started taking the possibility of a full invasion seriously (some a few days before like me, some only on the first day) we all independently came to the same conclusion... Russia is going to lose this war because there is no way they can win it.

Steve

I don't see either how they ever could win this but for purpose of analysis and wargaming if you are Russians what do you do now? The obvious would be to withdraw and call it a day but that seems to be a big no from political perspective so what options do they have? If you're a Russian general and the political layer requires a victory which is as "a netural Ukraine with destroyed and limited army that recognizes Donbas and Luhansk as Independant and Crimea as Russian". For the sake of a hypotetical wargaming perspective let's say that there are no restrictions on how you utilize the armed forces then what would you do?

Full mobilization? Using tactical nuclear arsenal to force the Ukrainians into submission? I just don't see how you could win this even if given full millitary freedom. Geograpically pushing towards the east bank of Dniepr and splitting the country into two, digging in and then creating a long frozen conflict possibly hoping to get some sort of Nort/South Korea situation? But that would require that the whole eastern part is supporting you or at least willing to submit which does not seem to be the case, not even with the ethnical Russians leaving in those parts. 

[panzermartin]

Putin is determined, he is already sending reinforcements from Armenia, Far East, Osetia etc to replenish losses. Unless there is a coup or something, I dont see this ending soon. And if the reinforcements dont work, maybe we can expect some sort of reserve mobilisation. He has no way out. 

[Sarjen]

Disturbing plane flights outbound Moscow. Private jets going for Dubai and whole lot of RSD Rossiya Special Flight Squadron going to remote locations in the east of Russia, including the Doomsday Plane Tu-214SR - callsign RSD79.

 

 

 

Is Putin now bluffing and flexing its muscles or has he gone mad?

[Hapless]

I guess it's a lot harder to launch a coup against someone sequestered in a nuclear bunker under the Urals.