How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Thomm]

28 minutes ago, kraze said:

And some more bonus photos from the counter-attack and "let's all bunch up behind a building" russian tactics

https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3325276/polk_azov_rozbyv_pidrozdil_22yi_brygady_spetsialnogo_pryznachennya_zs_rf_oos_foto

This looks like some of the maps at the end of my Close Combat 4 grand campaign!!

[kraze]

6 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I'm starting to get the impression that the static nature of the front is not so much Russia struggling to make gains on a daily basis, but a consolidation period for them to regroup and rearm. Significant amount of evidence for that, including Ukranie MoD claiming less activity along the lines. Seems like Russian drone activity has picked up steeply in the last few days, including their use of drones to guide their indirect fires. Drones and indirect fires is what wins for Russia (and everyone really). We saw it in 2014/15, see it in Syria (Russians and Turks), in Karabakh (Azeris), etc. They're starting to fight like they're meant to. I imagine the new strategy is to limit operations in most areas, suffer the attrition while gathering what ammo and supplies they can, bring drones to the front to find targets, and shoot all that ammo at said targets before making another violent push, this time aided by drones, more cruise missile strikes and a solid turnout of the VKS. If only to push the Ukranians onto the backfoot, so talks can proceed on Russia's terms. Rather than achieve original operational objectives of the invasion.

I'll also add that it's unlikely the Russian Army will break in the field, mutiny or withdraw at large without orders. Chechnya was god-awful, morale was non-existent, the economy was in the dumps, the Chechens were absolutely brutalizing the Russian conscripts. And yet there was no mutiny, no mass surrenders any higher than platoon level or so. Obviously times have changed somewhat, and Ukraine is not Chechnya, but Russians will generally tolerate a LOT before flat out refusal and rebellion. Probably more than they should in many cases.

You do remember that russians lost the first Chechen war, had to withdraw completely and Ichkeriya became de facto independent for the time?

It became such a massive failure that Yeltsin, who was considered a strong dictator due to his military victories in Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan, ended up being deposed by the FSB and replaced by Putin.

And that was war in a country the size of Crimea with the most populous city being Grozny with 200k pop, while Russia was also highly supported with western money with billions of $$ being poured into it to help its economics?

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[DesertFox]

I think we haven´t seen these before

 

 

[Probus]

19 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I think we haven´t seen these before

Do we have any video footage of Javelins in action.  I've seen several other ATGMs and many after action videos, but I can't think of a known Javelin hit, but then again, I may not know exactly what to look for.

[Taranis]

Quote

Des milliers de Syriens recrutés par la Russie pour combattre en Ukraine

Environ 40 000 combattants de l’armée syrienne et de milices alliées se sont inscrits pour combattre aux côtés de la Russie en Ukraine, prêts à être déployés en Ukraine, a affirmé mardi Rami Abdel Rahman, directeur de l’Observatoire syrien des droits de l’homme (OSDH), une ONG sise au Royaume-Uni, au vaste réseau de sources en Syrie. Des officiers russes, déployés en Syrie dans le cadre de l’intervention de Moscou en 2015 pour soutenir le régime de Damas, ont approuvé la candidature de 22 000 d’entre eux, selon M. Abdel Rahman.

Ces combattants sont soit des combattants issus d’unités de l’armée régulière syrienne, soit des milices prorégime formées par les Russes et ayant l’expérience de combats en zone urbaine, d’après l’OSDH. Au moins 18 000 autres hommes seront placés sous la houlette du nébuleux groupe Wagner, société russe privée de paramilitaires ayant des liens avec le Kremlin, a affirmé l’OSDH, qui a précisé ne pas avoir constaté, pour l’instant, de départ de recrues syriennes pour l’Ukraine.

Le Kremlin a annoncé le 11 mars que les volontaires, y compris ceux venant de Syrie, étaient les bienvenus pour combattre aux côtés de l’armée russe en Ukraine, envahie par la Russie depuis le 24 février. Selon l’OSDH, des officiers russes, en coordination avec l’armée syrienne et des milices alliées, ont ouvert des bureaux d’enrôlement dans les zones tenues par le régime de Damas. Un représentant du gouvernement syrien a démenti l’existence de cette campagne de recrutement

Thousands of Syrians recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine

About 40,000 fighters from the Syrian army and allied militias have registered to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, ready to be deployed in Ukraine, Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said on Tuesday. (OSDH), an NGO based in the United Kingdom, with an extensive network of sources in Syria. Russian officers, deployed to Syria as part of Moscow's 2015 intervention to support the regime in Damascus, approved the candidacy of 22,000 of them, according to Mr Abdel Rahman.

These fighters are either fighters from units of the regular Syrian army, or pro-regime militias trained by the Russians and having experience of fighting in urban areas, according to the OSDH. At least 18,000 other men will be placed under the leadership of the nebulous Wagner group, a private Russian paramilitary company with links to the Kremlin, said the OSDH, which specified that it had not noted, for the moment, the departure of Syrian recruits for Ukraine.

The Kremlin announced on March 11 that volunteers, including those from Syria, were welcome to fight alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, which has been invaded by Russia since February 24. According to the OSDH, Russian officers, in coordination with the Syrian army and allied militias, have opened enlistment offices in areas held by the Damascus regime. A representative of the Syrian government has denied the existence of this recruitment campaign

Source : Le Monde

Edited March 15, 2022 by Taranis
Text updated

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, Probus said:

Do we have any video footage of Javelins in action.  I've seen several other ATGMs and many after action videos, but I can't think of a known Javelin hit, but then again, I may not know exactly what to look for.

Nope not for Javelins in Ukraine. Haven´t seen any vids yet.

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nope not for Javelins in Ukraine. Haven´t seen any vids yet.

I guess they simply haven't really been necessary yet. Either the Russians have barged straight into ambushes, or they have abandoned their tanks in the field, or they have bunched up in woods and got shelled. I saw a video where a tank was burnt by tossing in a flaming oil rag. Not exactly a high tech weapon.

Javelins are made for a more troublesome and competent enemy I suppose.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

I guess they simply haven't really been necessary yet. Either the Russians have barged straight into ambushes, or they have abandoned their tanks in the field, or they have bunched up in woods and got shelled. I saw a video where a tank was burnt by tossing in a flaming oil rag. Not exactly a high tech weapon.

Javelins are made for a more troublesome and competent enemy I suppose.

Javelins are used, it's just that they weren't filmed in any cool cinematic way because they aren't as omnipresent as NLAW and aren't as safe to use as Stugna.

But there is a video that was released just yesterday where two of our guys at the front lines were talking about how on the first day they shot 5 javelin missiles from their position, taking out two tanks and two APCs before finally getting spotted by another tank and getting knocked out by a shock wave... and then escaping hospital after only a week to get back into the fight where they are now - and once again armed with Javelins.

So those are used alright.

[The_MonkeyKing]

52 minutes ago, kraze said:

Javelins are used, it's just that they weren't filmed in any cool cinematic way because they aren't as omnipresent as NLAW and aren't as safe to use as Stugna.

But there is a video that was released just yesterday where two of our guys at the front lines were talking about how on the first day they shot 5 javelin missiles from their position, taking out two tanks and two APCs before finally getting spotted by another tank and getting knocked out by a shock wave... and then escaping hospital after only a week to get back into the fight where they are now - and once again armed with Javelins.

So those are used alright.

I will be disappointed if won't see a frying pan launching to orbit after Javelin crashed trough the cope cage.

Filmed In 4k from a drone of course.

[rocketman]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Javelins are used, it's just that they weren't filmed in any cool cinematic way because they aren't as omnipresent as NLAW and aren't as safe to use as Stugna.

But there is a video that was released just yesterday where two of our guys at the front lines were talking about how on the first day they shot 5 javelin missiles from their position, taking out two tanks and two APCs before finally getting spotted by another tank and getting knocked out by a shock wave... and then escaping hospital after only a week to get back into the fight where they are now - and once again armed with Javelins.

So those are used alright.

Could it be that Javelins are used at longer range attacks and are therefore harder to get a good video of?

[billbindc]

Perhaps the best 'big picture' read I've found on where this is and where it's going: 

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist?utm_source=twitter&s=r

[domfluff]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure where that is coming from.  We had people joining the US, UK and Australian militaries and went on all sorts of “military action” in countries we are not at war with.  Ukraine is a partner force we had a military mission with so joining their military is pretty much the same thing.

Sounds like a either a myth or some weird law on the books that no one actually enforces.  ISIS foreign fighters can be charged for “support to a terrorist organization”, which is different.

The UK law (and I'd guess the Canadian one as well) dates back to 1870. It's never really been enforceable. It was aimed at George Orwell and others during the Spanish Civil War, but didn't hold then either.

There have allegedly been prosecutions around the fighting in Syria though, so who knows. I don't expect to see much real fallout over this.

Edited March 15, 2022 by domfluff

[c3k]

1 hour ago, rocketman said:

Could it be that Javelins are used at longer range attacks and are therefore harder to get a good video of?

I think it's a combination:

1. Without knowing the actual numbers, I think there are fewer Javelins in-theater than Stugna-P.

2. Stugna-P is laser guided. Same ~5km max range. It is NOT fire-and-forget, and it is NOT top-attack. 

3. Stugna-P is "safer" to fire. Remote launch, vs., over the shoulder.

4. Stugna-P gets set up in a static position: much easier opportunity to video and to watch the operator video link. Javelin, being shoulder-launched, the video opportunities are more fleeting, and the impact footage would be missing (depending on range and how many Russian tanks/IFVs are going to be looking for the launcher and shooting back.)

 

That's my take on why aren't seeing as many (any?) Javelin launches/kills.

 

Edited point 2 to reflect that Stugna-P is NOT top-attack. Thanks to @Lethaface for pointing that out.

Edited March 15, 2022 by c3k

[akd]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

And some more bonus photos from the counter-attack and "let's all bunch up behind a building" russian tactics

https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3325276/polk_azov_rozbyv_pidrozdil_22yi_brygady_spetsialnogo_pryznachennya_zs_rf_oos_foto

Same place where the drone footage of 1x Typhoon-K and 2x BTRs getting hit was filmed yesterday.  Guess they doubled down on that being a great position.

 

[TheVulture]

4 minutes ago, c3k said:

I think it's a combination:

3. Stugna-P is "safer" to fire. Remote launch, vs., over the shoulder.

4. Stugna-P gets set up in a static position: much easier opportunity to video and to watch the operator video link. Javelin, being shoulder-launched, the video opportunities are more fleeting, and the impact footage would be missing (depending on range and how many Russian tanks/IFVs are going to be looking for the launcher and shooting back.).

IIRC The british version of the javelin has remote launch capability.  The CLU can be detatched and used to fire the launcher from around 50m away. (As can the British NLAW)

I think the US versions don't have this,  which is probably what the Ukrainians have. 

[George MC]

7 minutes ago, domfluff said:

The UK law (and I'd guess the Canadian one as well) dates back to 1870. It's never really been enforceable. It was aimed at George Orwell and others during the Spanish Civil War, but didn't hold then either.

There have allegedly been prosecutions around the fighting in Syria though, so who knows. I don't expect to see much real fallout over this.

In the UK most recent (high profile) prosecutions have involved those going to Syria to fight. In this context its inevitably meant they've come to the attention of the CPS under counter terrorism laws. though the get out clause "That prohibition does not extend, however, to enlistment in a foreign government’s forces which are engaged in a civil war or combatting terrorism or internal uprisings." In the UK its mainly been those who are accused of 'serving' with ISIS which is a terror organisation hence being prosecuted under anti-terror laws.

There is this one a ex-brit soldier who fought with YPG https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/james-matthews-isis-british-soldier-terror-charge-syria-army-uk-a8770781.html

And another one https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/daniel-burke-terror-charges-dropped-soldier-isis-syria-news-a9599561.html

 

[Lethaface]

32 minutes ago, c3k said:

I think it's a combination:

1. Without knowing the actual numbers, I think there are fewer Javelins in-theater than Stugna-P.

2. Stugna-P is the Ukrainian Javelin...laser guided, but top-attack. Just as effective. Same ~5km max range.

3. Stugna-P is "safer" to fire. Remote launch, vs., over the shoulder.

4. Stugna-P gets set up in a static position: much easier opportunity to video and to watch the operator video link. Javelin, being shoulder-launched, the video opportunities are more fleeting, and the impact footage would be missing (depending on range and how many Russian tanks/IFVs are going to be looking for the launcher and shooting back.)

 

That's my take on why aren't seeing as many (any?) Javelin launches/kills.

AFAIK the Stugna-P isn't top attack. At least it isn't in CMBS and doesn't seem to be from the various video's. It does have a big tandem HEAT round and afaik effective against Kontakt-5 with enough after ERA effect to penetrate turret front of T-72BM3. So, it's effective enough. 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Javelins are used, it's just that they weren't filmed in any cool cinematic way because they aren't as omnipresent as NLAW and aren't as safe to use as Stugna.

But there is a video that was released just yesterday where two of our guys at the front lines were talking about how on the first day they shot 5 javelin missiles from their position, taking out two tanks and two APCs before finally getting spotted by another tank and getting knocked out by a shock wave... and then escaping hospital after only a week to get back into the fight where they are now - and once again armed with Javelins.

So those are used alright.

Brave to the point of stupidity. I hope they were repo-ing with each shot, but I've seen several videos of UKR staying put after a successful shot. OMG turn off your phone and MOVE.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Kinophile

[c3k]

22 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

AFAIK the Stugna-P isn't top attack. At least it isn't in CMBS and doesn't seem to be from the various video's. It does have a big tandem HEAT round and afaik effective against Kontakt-5 with enough after ERA effect to penetrate turret front of T-72BM3. So, it's effective enough. 

Gah. You are correct: I'm not sure where/why I thought it was top-attack. I'll go edit my post to reflect that correction.

Thanks!

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I'm starting to get the impression that the static nature of the front is not so much Russia struggling to make gains on a daily basis, but a consolidation period for them to regroup and rearm.

Heard this multiple times here and elsewhere so I think it is time for us to have a Pause talk.  We pretty much know the Russians have pretty much halted operational level offensives and are stalled, that is all over the place and even mainstream media has picked it up.  So the theories on what is happening to the Russian forces now are roughly assembling around 3 possibilities:

- Stopped, cannot start so digging in for a long haul, which will see broad operational defensive operations with limited tactical offensive actions designed to terrorize the population.

- Stopped, will never re-start and are heading towards total collapse.

- Stopped, conducting an operational pause to consolidate/re-org before re-starting the massive offensive to surround major cities and begin the Russian Grind strategy. 

I am going to leave off the first two and focus on that third one.  A military war machine is a really big system built in layers, we do this for both C2/span of control and sustainment reasons.  Normally a modern military will lay itself out in echelons of some shape or size in depth, the Soviets had a really organized system for this, the Wests was a bit more fluid but we all are set up to fight in what are essentially structures waves since the Roman legions (somebody google the opening of the HBO Rome series and you can see it in action).

For arguments sake let's go with the rule of three and say the Russians are setup in three tactical layers (the West kind of does it as well with "2 up, 1 back and the last one as "Reserve", bit more of a pyramid scheme).  The first tactical layer will be given main objectives and then some stretch ones, unless they are using mission-command then it gets a bit more opportunistic, but the concept is the same; whistle blows first wave into the breach. 

That echelon/wave is expected to be able to fight for a certain period of time based on a lot of factors like attrition, distance, logistical consumption; however, the old rule is that in human based systems you can get about 72-96 hours of action (i.e. little to no sleep) before people start to break down ("beware the 5th day" by Moltke (I think)).  So that first wave can theoretically do up to 4 days of intense action before it needs to be relieved by the second wave.  This can change based on conditions but it is important to understand that it can get shorter but not longer because we are still fighting with human beings as the basis of the system.  So no matter how tough the guys might think they are, or how many chin ups they can do, after 4 days without sleep their brains start to shut down (trust me, been there and done it).

Then the second wave is supposed to conduct some sort of passage of lines and process continues for another 72-96, and then the third wave (if you have one).  While the second and third are doing their thing the first wave is supposed to be going through a tactical consolidation which include resupply/reinforcements/replacements and reorganization.  This is also when things like vehicle and weapons systems maintenance happens because vehicles will break down like people.

Now that whole system, which for arguments sake we can call the "operational system" is designed to be able to keep this up for weeks to months.  However after a certain amount of time all the losses and wear & tear start to add up and you need...wait for it...an operational pause.  [Aside: eventually, all these operational pauses add up and you see a strategic pause but that can take much longer].  This pause is basically an entire system overhaul to do all sorts of things that look like refitting a ship.  Replacements, rotations and re-organization of tactical units.  Planning and boring stuff like orders.  A lot of logistical and ISR scene setting for the next phase, and lastly...don't let your opponent know you are doing an operational pause until it is over.  So you will still see tactical action such as feints, tactical offensives but with short small gains - more jabs than actual punches - are often employed to try and make it hard for an opponent to figure out that you are in fact pausing...why?  We will come back to that.

Ok, so how does that apply to the current situation.  Let's accept that this is an operational pause for a moment and the big nasty Russian Bear is just cleaning the blood out of its fur before going back to ravaging Ukrainian bunnies.  Well first off it was not a planned pause, it happened too quickly.  Based on the big maps and overall tempo, it appears like the Russians were really advancing hard for the first 3-4 days.  We did see a likely echelon flip on the next 3-4 days as they pushed depth forward but by about day 10 of this thing everyone was starting to notice that the big red blotches on the map had stopped moving.  So let's give the Russian the benefit of the doubt and say they actually managed to use all three echelons effectively, well what likely did not happen was that 1st wave reloaded while waves 2 and 3 continued.  Remember formations are designed to be able to do this for weeks and out to months if the situation allows. So having the whole operational system come to a stop in 10 days is a very good indication that this was not in the plan.

10 days into this war was 5 March, a week and half ago.  Even the most uninformed journalist (and here I cast a baleful eye at our own CBC because it is harder to find a more uninformed bunch when it comes to warfare) is getting the drift that the Russians are not moving.  Now remember when I said "don't let your opponent know you are pausing"?  The reason for this is that you do not what them to try and grab the operational initiative, it is bad if they do because you are now on the defensive pretty much by definition.  Now if you plan for this, you can do all sorts of clever things like pull you opponent into over reaching etc, not sure I see a masterful design on the Russian side here.  But the UA has shown more offensive actions and c-attacks.  We have all been talking about a big UA operational strike, not sure if it will happen but the Russians are leaving the door open to one because of this pregnant operational pause. 

So to summarize, the Russian operational pause: 1) came much earlier than it should have, why?, 2) has lasted the length of an Old Testament reading in modern warfare timelines, and 3) is handing initiative over to their opponent.

So what?  Well if this is a Russian operational pause (at this rate, and with rumors of those other 40 BTGs it could be strategic) it is not a good one.  The conditions that led to that are very likely really poor pre-planning, ample evidence of that, and systemic failures that happened very quickly.  This speaks to a brittle operational system that they are having to almost re-tool from the ground up.  I have serious doubts that the Russians, who have lost some of their best troops, can come out of this as a new "super-force" able to mass joint effects and cut through the UA in days.  The types of planning and quality organization/preparations, from logistics to C4ISR, that a military force needs to do in order to pull off what the Russians are attempting takes years to prepare and build.

So if this is an operational pause, it is probably a master class in "how not to do this" and I doubt it will solve much for the Russian forces who are now coming up on two weeks of time they have given their opponent to prepare, supply and continue to hit them as they are pausing.

[keas66]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

Thousands of Syrians recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine

About 40,000 fighters from the Syrian army and allied militias have registered to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, ready to be deployed in Ukraine, Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said on Tuesday. (OSDH), an NGO based in the United Kingdom, with an extensive network of sources in Syria. Russian officers, deployed to Syria as part of Moscow's 2015 intervention to support the regime in Damascus, approved the candidacy of 22,000 of them, according to Mr Abdel Rahman.

These fighters are either fighters from units of the regular Syrian army, or pro-regime militias trained by the Russians and having experience of fighting in urban areas, according to the OSDH. At least 18,000 other men will be placed under the leadership of the nebulous Wagner group, a private Russian paramilitary company with links to the Kremlin, said the OSDH, which specified that it had not noted, for the moment, the departure of Syrian recruits for Ukraine.

The Kremlin announced on March 11 that volunteers, including those from Syria, were welcome to fight alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, which has been invaded by Russia since February 24. According to the OSDH, Russian officers, in coordination with the Syrian army and allied militias, have opened enlistment offices in areas held by the Damascus regime. A representative of the Syrian government has denied the existence of this recruitment campaign

Source : Le Monde

How many of these guys will end up seeking refugee status in Europe . I would be releasing a counter  to this by stating that no armed  foreign combatants in the Russia Army can seek refugee status in the West .

Edited March 15, 2022 by keas66

[Erwin]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Perhaps the best 'big picture' read I've found on where this is and where it's going: 

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist?utm_source=twitter&s=r

Very interesting analysis and responses:

"Even though the sanctions aren't watertight, they're causing sufficient damage to the Russian economy that it's status as a 'great power' has been completely undermined in the eyes of the world, and particularly China. While a China-Russia axis remains possible, I would assume that Chinese caution, pragmatism and long-term thinking make it significantly less likely given the dual irresponsibility and failure of the Putin regime to achieve its objectives. In thinking about post-war costs, would it be in Chinese interests to participate in a globally-funded reconstruction programme for Ukraine? This would be a clear benefit to China in improving its relations with the West, and would in essence be storing up both a 'favour' and a financial precedent for when Chinese sovereign debt becomes a regime-threatening issue. This would be even more the case if China has either participated in, or even led, international efforts to end the war or even have the Putin regime replaced (latter less likely but not impossible, depending on Putin's escalatory actions). In summary, will China's self-interest become a significant determining factor in both the current war and what comes after it?"

After WW2 the assistance given to both Germany and Japan enabled those nations to recover and become global powerhouses 25-30 years later. It would seem that (if the situation doe end up like post WW2) it is paramount that the west do this for Russia and ensure that China is kept isolated so that the west gets the PR benefits as well as some (at least) moral claim to Russia's enormous riches.  Russia is an enormously rich country in terms of raw materials, and it's a testament to incompetency (or something) that its average citizens are not also wealthy and relatively quiescent as the populations in the west tend to be.

[Bulletpoint]

28 minutes ago, keas66 said:

How many of these guys will end up seeking refugee status in Europe . I would be releasing a counter  to this by stating that no armed  foreign combatants in the Russia Army can seek refugee status in the West .

The problem is that the moment they are on EU soil, all they need to do is to say the magic word "asylum". Western countries cannot just declare that they don't want to honour their convention obligations for a specific group.

[Sgt Joch]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

Thousands of Syrians recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine

That strikes me more as a propaganda move or to put pressure on the Ukrainians, it will be weeks at least before they show up on the front lines and there should be a ceasefire agreement by then.

[Bulletpoint]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So the theories on what is happening to the Russian forces now are roughly assembling around 3 possibilities:

- Stopped, cannot start so digging in for a long haul, which will see broad operational defensive operations with limited tactical offensive actions designed to terrorize the population.

- Stopped, will never re-start and are heading towards total collapse.

- Stopped, conducting an operational pause to consolidate/re-org before re-starting the massive offensive to surround major cities and begin the Russian Grind strategy. 

I'm thinking it will be option 1. Basically a WW1 style of war where the Russians dig in and bombrd the approaches to Kyiv in order to creep forward slowly until they can get their regular artillery in range of the city. Then try to pummel the defenders into submission.