How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Homo_Ferricus]

31 minutes ago, akd said:

I see a pretty immediate fire from one of the hatches and only two crew members get out (or at least get out and run away).

Watch from 0:56-1:03 you can see just as the fire flares into what looks like is about to be a catastrophic kill, it is suddenly put out almost completely.

[Fenris]

Helo going down. I've heard the term TicTok war a few times and I've seen a few of these now.  Although it's not really new, enabling the sound and having the music is a little jarring, I suppose I'm used to watching these with voice over or silence.

No details on what we're seeing here. I know a little Serbian and the start of the track sounds like dobro vece Ukraine - good evening Ukraine or welcome to Ukraine?

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Fenris

[The Steppenwulf]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia is at risk of having tens of thousands of its soldiers surrendering if they don't dramatically change how they are fighting this war.

It's tempting to speculate even now that this could happen sooner, rather than later, probably around Kiev. And once it does it could easily ripple throughout the Russian forces turning into a general collapse. We saw exactly the same with dispirited troops unsure what they were fighting for in Iraq under Saddam. 

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

It's tempting to speculate even now that this could happen sooner, rather than later, probably around Kiev. And once it does it could easily ripple throughout the Russian forces turning into a general collapse. We saw exactly the same with dispirited troops unsure what they were fighting for in Iraq under Saddam. 

Just one decent size formation and the whole thing is going to get shaky.  If Russian high command starts wondering about the reliability of its units, the tendency to want a ceasefire and grab whatever they can at the negotiating table will be strong.  The alternative of a humiliating military collapse would be too much.  DNR/LPR would fall though maybe not Crimea.

Edited March 11, 2022 by sburke

[Vet 0369]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk @Battlefront.com @kraze @The_Capt

So my impression is that:

• In the North UKR forces are in decent shape, pushing back locally and constantly fighting, but vulnerable to massed, concentrated assault (which RUS seems to be building for). They have the shortest supply lines, the political center of gravity and excellent terrain for large scale defense (large flood plains, cities, the river to break up the RUS front). This is the beating heart of Ukrainian national defense and will be the base for long-term resistance or counter-attack.

 

• In the Center East, UKR forces are holding on, but are not the center of gravity of the UKR defense - they're getting enough to hold but not push back. They MUST hold in order to evacuate the South East region forces shortly. If they collapse then the SE forces will also collapse by default, leading to mass-scramble by UKR units to escape the kettle. And that won't be pretty at all at all.

 

• In the South East UKR forces are very much on the back foot, falling back and have suffered heavy losses. They are still coherent, still have some form of regional command cohesion but have lost battalion-level initiative and are purely reactive, while still highly motivated and effective at company and below. They have the most vulnerable supply lines and are in real danger of being snipped off as a region.

How's that reading?

 

I can hear the Ukraine Company commander now as he points to the Russian line; “We need supplies of weapons, ammo, food, and medical stuff. It’s time to go and get them.”

[Bulletpoint]

16 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Russia spans 11 time zones and what most in the West sees in what the media can access in the urban areas, but there are vast tracts of rural areas and cites away from the main hubs like Moscow that nobody covers and does anyone really know how they feel?

From what little I could see when asked how they felt about Putin and the war, some were against, but some were firmly behind Putin and the invasion. If Putin has support in the rural areas and they are already relatively poor and surviving on very little will economic sanctions really hurt them?

I think the political and economic power is concentrated in the cities, so if people there are more cosmopolitan and educated and go against the war, it might not matter much that there are a hundred thousand small isolated villages out in the countryside where people support Putin and his war.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

It's tempting to speculate even now that this could happen sooner, rather than later, probably around Kiev. And once it does it could easily ripple throughout the Russian forces turning into a general collapse. We saw exactly the same with dispirited troops unsure what they were fighting for in Iraq under Saddam. 

Losing the will to fight is contagious.  So far it looks like Ukraine hasn't taken more than platoon sized units captive in one go.  Probably mostly because at the time the platoons were fighting mostly on their own.  Now that they seem to be fighting in larger groups it might be less likely for units to surrender.  However, if they do then that indicates conditions are ripe for a full collapse.

I still wonder what's happening to all the Russian soldiers who abandon their vehicles.  What state are they in when they return back to wherever they go?  What does Russia do with guys like air defense personnel with no air defense equipment?  What do they do with truck drivers with no trucks?  What do they with shattered squads who had their IFVs blown away?

Under normal circumstances they would be reintegrated into units within their own parent unit.  And if that's what is happening, that's not going to be good for morale.

"Everybody, this is Private Pavel.  He was with 2nd Platoon until it got wiped out.  Be understanding of him, he's kinda jumpy since watching everybody he knew get set on fire and dismembered."

Yup, that ain't going to be good for morale.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

12 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Watch from 0:56-1:03 you can see just as the fire flares into what looks like is about to be a catastrophic kill, it is suddenly put out almost completely.

I don't know why, but sometimes the internal ammo cook-off blows the turret and sometimes it doesn't.

 

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Fenris said:

of the track sounds like dobro vece Ukraine - good evening Ukraine or welcome to Ukraine?

It sounds like "Dobroho vechora, my z Ukrainy" - "Good evening, we are from Ukraine". This is a phrase from musical composition of Ukrainain PROBASS & HARDI group, which became our local meme. You can hear it in some videos from the war - in that context this phrase means something like "sudden strike of Ukrainans"

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Another thing I never thought I'd see.  Using Facebook to inform citizens which stuff they should prioritize reporting on or blowing up (at least I think that's what this is about):

EDIT - Haiduk, I see you are here.  Did I guess correctly what this is for?

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

EDIT - Haiduk, I see you are here.  Did I guess correctly what this is for?

 

Yes, correct ) Any citizen can send a place of spotted vehicles on special resourse (better with a photo and coordinates) and it after cheking will be set in queue for the strike. This poster show a priority of Russian EW assets. Krasuha-4 is main priority - it can works against Bayraktars.

All this works under the National program of "Тотальний спротив" ("Total resistanse"), passed before the war.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Hmmm, notice how the CM spotting model is NOT broken ! 
The first and 2nd vehicles drove past that ambush position which is no more than 10 AS's from the road and covered by only spindly trees and saw nothing !

[Grey_Fox]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

So apparently that tank that got blatted was a BTG commander, the XO took ove and a kilometer down the road they stopped to reorganise and got hit by artillery, forcing them to fall back.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

So apparently that tank that got blatted was a BTG commander, the XO took ove and a kilometer down the road they stopped to reorganise and got hit by artillery, forcing them to fall back.

damn is that confirmed?  that's bound to ruin the day for that BTG

[db_zero]

28 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the political and economic power is concentrated in the cities, so if people there are more cosmopolitan and educated and go against the war, it might not matter much that there are a hundred thousand small isolated villages out in the countryside where people support Putin and his war.

We had even larger crowds protesting the Iraq war in cities and that didn’t stop the war.

Putin seems determined to see this through and the internal security apparatus doesn’t seem to be turning against him.

Looking at the picture being painted its looking like Russia will lose, but until the fat lady sings I’ll also entertain the other side that says not so fast…

They only have to be right once.

[Fenris]

Looks very similar terrain to the earlier one.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Fenris

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Looks very similar terrain to the earlier one.

 

 

Strange that the Russians have so many powerful anti-air units, but are apparently unable to shoot down such drones.

[Fenris]

55 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Helo going down. I've heard the term TicTok war a few times and I've seen a few of these now.  Although it's not really new, enabling the sound and having the music is a little jarring, I suppose I'm used to watching these with voice over or silence.

No details on what we're seeing here. I know a little Serbian and the start of the track sounds like dobro vece Ukraine - good evening Ukraine or welcome to Ukraine?

 

Quoting myself re "TikTok War", just came across this, think the story is from the Washington Post

 

[Grey_Fox]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

damn is that confirmed?  that's bound to ruin the day for that BTG

Yeah, this is the column about a kilometer down the road getting hit by artillery: 

https://streamable.com/fa4d1o

I believe @Haiduk provided a translation earlier in this thread.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, db_zero said:

We had even larger crowds protesting the Iraq war in cities and that didn’t stop the war.

Putin seems determined to see this through and the internal security apparatus doesn’t seem to be turning against him.

Looking at the picture being painted its looking like Russia will lose, but until the fat lady sings I’ll also entertain the other side that says not so fast…

They only have to be right once.

Protests in a democratic country have a more narrow agenda than those in autocratic states.  In democracies it is about changing a specific policy.  They might lack faith in the current leadership, but have faith in the government as a whole.  In autocracies the protests are more likely to have  broader agenda of toppling the entire governmental structure itself.  The specific thing they are protesting is just the "straw that broke the camel's back".

A reminder that protests almost toppled the autocratic Communist governments in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland.  These were stopped only by external force applied by the Soviet Union.  Protests eventually almost every Warsaw Pact sate without a shot being fired (Romania being the exception).  And when the Russian coup of 1991 happened it was protests that shut it down. 

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

13 minutes ago, db_zero said:

We had even larger crowds protesting the Iraq war in cities and that didn’t stop the war.

But the Iraq war had major implications for the policies and politics of both parties in the US. Keep in mind since 2008 every president elected in the US has been rhetorically anti-GWOT, just like Richard Nixon was anti-Vietnam. I dont want to upset BFC Elvis too much so I dont think we should pursue this. 

I do want to say though, much to Steve's point, protest movements in authoritarian countries have to be viewed very differently. I could protest tomorrow if I wanted to, all by myself. And Sunday I'd still be having dinner in the comfort of my own home. In an authoritarian country I'd be in jail. Democracies are also not very brittle really, because government policy can change with an election. This brings with it a whole host of different issues, but generally its very rare for an issue to so roil a democracy that the whole thing falls apart overnight. Authoritarian states are very strong when pushed along expected lines. But theyre also incredibly brittle, like glass. Protests and attacks against the state's legitimacy are far more serious, in part because both the protestors and the powerbrokers understand that the only way for policy to really change is through violence. Thus the state almost always resorts to violence first to head off the movement, and then it becomes a question of what kind of reciprocal violence the movement is willing to bring to bear in response. These situations though are very fluid, and there is certainly a tipping point which can shatter the regime. Three bad days in 1917 undermined the Tsar, for example. In a democracy thats just not really realistic. Whats more realistic is an elite group using the mechanisms of the state to make themselves essentially untouchable and unresponsive. This is how Putin became a dictator in the first place.

Personally though I just dont think the protests in Russia will work. Maybe I will be proven wrong. But if something happens to Vladdy Daddy, IMO its going to come from within the Kremlin. Such is the nature of a system where the government doesn't have to reflect the will of anyone except the guy in charge. 

[Fenris]

oops, wrong thread

Edited March 11, 2022 by Fenris

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I don't disagree, though I was being a bit sarcastic.  on the other hand that ambush could have been much much worse.  A few mines on the opposite side for the Russian to run into and/or a couple more AT teams and that could have been a bloodbath.  

So yeah maybe I was being a bit unfair, but I don't have to try all that hard to make the Russians look bad. 

The footage is pretty confusing.  The after pics don't seem to show the same battle unless there is more fighting simply not part of the first image.  The tank turret on the ground does not seem to be from that same vehicle.

It is not so much a question of the Russians reacting very badly, as it a significant attritional loss For the Russians. A small infantry team took out at least two vehicles, and inflicted at least 6-8 casualties on the Russians. The Ukrainians don't seem short of infantry, or missiles. The Russians are getting very short of people who will stay in their tanks and fight. This is a clear UKR win if the team didn't get away, and an overwhelming one if this team is still around to do it again.

[akd]

Cracks appearing on the China front? (Can’t vouch for authenticity or importance of this):

 

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

But the Iraq war had major implications for the policies and politics of both parties in the US. Keep in mind since 2008 every president elected in the US has been rhetorically anti-GWOT, just like Richard Nixon was anti-Vietnam. I dont want to upset BFC Elvis too much so I dont think we should pursue this. 

I do want to say though, much to Steve's point, protest movements in authoritarian countries have to be viewed very differently. I could protest tomorrow if I wanted to, all by myself. And Sunday I'd still be having dinner in the comfort of my own home. In an authoritarian country I'd be in jail. Democracies are also not very brittle really, because government policy can change with an election. This brings with it a whole host of different issues, but generally its very rare for an issue to so roil a democracy that the whole thing falls apart overnight. Authoritarian states are very strong when pushed along expected lines. But theyre also incredibly brittle, like glass. Protests and attacks against the state's legitimacy are far more serious, in part because both the protestors and the powerbrokers understand that the only way for policy to really change is through violence. Thus the state almost always resorts to violence first to head off the movement, and then it becomes a question of what kind of reciprocal violence the movement is willing to bring to bear in response. These situations though are very fluid, and there is certainly a tipping point which can shatter the regime. Three bad days in 1917 undermined the Tsar, for example. In a democracy thats just not really realistic. Whats more realistic is an elite group using the mechanisms of the state to make themselves essentially untouchable and unresponsive. This is how Putin became a dictator in the first place.

Personally though I just dont think the protests in Russia will work. Maybe I will be proven wrong. But if something happens to Vladdy Daddy, IMO its going to come from within the Kremlin. Such is the nature of a system where the government doesn't have to reflect the will of anyone except the guy in charge. 

But once there is coup you just get the next question. How many bits of non Russian ethnicity decide it is great time not be a small part of  big country. Decision influenced by the fact that the Russian military is currently getting the crap kicked out of it somewhere else. Lots of people get ideas when the Tsars mailed fist looks like it made out of tissue paper.