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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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11 minutes ago, Suchy said:

@Lethaface

Yes, we are buying 250 Abrams in the latest possible configuration. The exact details of the equipment are not known. But the first tanks may not arrive in Poland until a year or two from now.

Thanks. Will be interesting to find out the exact details, when/if they come available.

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26 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

How many of these things does Russia even have? Arnt they like Divisional AD assets?

Pantsyrs is not Ground Forces assets. They are in composition of "mobile AD regimets" of Air Forces and air defense Armies.

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1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Pantsyrs is not Ground Forces assets. They are in composition of "mobile AD regimets" of Air Forces and air defense Armies.

Quote

The Russian BTG TO&E looks like it has 2 platoons each of 3 Pantsir systems, so that's 6 per BTG on paper. I've no idea what fraction of the 'BTG's being used in Ukraine actually conform to the official BTG concept (I'd imagine the follow on forces that are classed as BTGs have different TO&E) - and no idea what fraction of the units actually have the authorised allotment of vehicles. @TheVulture

So dedicated Air Force AD assets task-forced in with BTGs to build a combined arms team? Very interesting.

Im already out of upvotes today, so here is a spiritual +1. 

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31 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

So dedicated Air Force AD assets task-forced in with BTGs to build a combined arms team? Very interesting.

Im already out of upvotes today, so here is a spiritual +1. 

Means they don’t have a enough Tunguskas, which (along with Strela-10s) are supposed to fulfill that role, or these assets are being lost deep in the rear echelons where they are supposed to be used.

Edited by akd
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10 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

So dedicated Air Force AD assets task-forced in with BTGs to build a combined arms team? Very interesting.

In Ukraine BTG also can be covered by Osa platoon of AD regiment if need. But this should be supporting, but not attached force.... as I can recall.

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DesertFox,

Your cluster of T-72BM3s is the same from which come the stills of the egg crates where bagged NERA should be.

All,

ICYMI, the Russians have fielded a Z-marked armored train! Apparently, it was imaged near Mellitopol. Am unsure where the still later in the thread was shot. So far, alas, there's been no opportunity to blast Lenin's personal train.

On a separate note, failed to mention (and maybe provide pics) that part of the V force consisted of BMD-2s equipped with rooftop ATGM mounts.

As for Iskander accuracy, the British did far better attacking Port Stanley Airport  (OPERATION BLACK BUCK) with a single ancient Vulcan strategic bomber hastily modified to give it a conventional capability--using 1000-pound iron bombs!

https://vulcantothesky.org/articles/falklands-war-1982-operation-black-buck/

Black%2BBuck%2B1%2Band%2BSea%2BHarrier%2

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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Not just Grads firing in this 2 min clip, the drone footage gives a panorama with some (choppy) zoom ins of what looks to be an entire RA BTG in close action here, well worth a view or two. Peremoha is about 40km due east of Kiev.

 

Hitting the fuel lines of a mechanised army is the equivalent of body blows in boxing.

Didn't they estimate the life span of a chopper jock over the FEBA in Fulda in seconds, not even minutes? Poor kids.

Nice shooting. Mortars? At the end, the dronecam pans left to show the Dniepr.

 

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another knocked out column of vehicles near Kharkiv.  At least some of them are OMON, complete with a truckload of riot gear:

Steve

Based on which BTG version one subscribes to, they only have 2-3 POL trucks per group so this might be the B echelon of a BTG, which means that BTG is out of the fight.

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39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Based on which BTG version one subscribes to, they only have 2-3 POL trucks per group so this might be the B echelon of a BTG, which means that BTG is out of the fight.

This column includes a bunch of Rosgvardia security assets. Riot protected vehicles, prisoner transport vehicles, riot gear, etc.

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1 hour ago, Suchy said:

@Lethaface

Yes, we are buying 250 Abrams in the latest possible configuration. The exact details of the equipment are not known. But the first tanks may not arrive in Poland until a year or two from now.

Since the Bundeswehr also will be playing a major role in the defence of Europe, this might be of interest too.

 

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Essential reading for civilians contemplating using civilian drones against the Russians! Summary statement: If you transmit to the drone, you stand a great chance of receiving well-aimed counterfire from rockets or tube artillery. 

https://dronexl.co/2022/03/03/warning-flying-consumer-drones-in-ukraine/

To paraphrase Thucydides, one GRAD salvo can ruin your entire day--permanently.

On a far cheerier note, Ukraine has already begun receiving more TB2 Bayraktar drones (quantity classified) and has already sent them off to war.

https://dronexl.co/2022/03/03/warning-flying-consumer-drones-in-ukraine/

And let's not forget the Punisher and Spectre! Brought to you from a firm of which ~3/4 of the staff are ex-SO types. They appear to have built two real winners with many times demonstrated effectiveness in combat in Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-army-is-using-a-nimble-game-changing-drone-called-the-punisher-that-has-completed-scores-of-successful-missions-against-the-russians-say-reports/ar-AAUDUBO
 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Not just Grads firing in this clip, the drone footage gives a panorama of what looks to be an entire RA BTG in close action here, well worth a view or two. Peremoha is about 40km due east of Kiev.

Bit of quick and dirty Google Earth imagery analysis with plots of the MRLs, the fire and two of the vehicle groups attached.

Vid Analysis.kmz

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Though they may very well be attacking Russian land forces now, in 2021 the Ukrainian Navy received its own batch of six TB2 Bayraktars, armed with 4 x MAM-L standoff munitions ( 7 km range) outranging the weaponry of all but four ships in the Black Sea Fleet. The guidance improved verson of MAM-L is good to 14 km.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/08/black-sea-hunters-bayraktar-tb2s-in.html

It occurs to me that TB2 attacks on land may have so alarmed the Black Sea Marines that they canceled their planned brigade sized landing. HE would be bad enough, but what if the Turks supplied the other warhead version--thermobaric?! Imagine being aboard a ship crammed to the gunwales with ammunition, fuel and very squishy people when this happens. Pound for pound, thermobaric warheads generate much higher blast overpressure and heat than HE and are of longer duration, meaning the blast impulse has longer to act on materiel and people alike. And what's the great ship killer? Fire!

600px-USS_McNulty_(DDE-581)_sunk_as_targ

https://www.roketsan.com.tr/en/products/mam-l-smart-micro-munition

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited by John Kettler
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10 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

If you transmit to the drone, you stand a great chance of receiving well-aimed counterfire from rockets or tube artillery

I think you meant to say "small to miniscule chance" based on Russian performance to date.  Commercial drones run at the same frequency range as wifi and even cellphones (I have seen videos on line of people using cell receivers to greatly increase range).  So what? Well because the Russians completely failed to achieve information/communications superiority the  Ukraine is one massive EM Christmas tree right now (see: Twitter feeds), so all that really sexy Russian kit is going to be overwhelmed.  With enough time, they may be able to figure out if that signal is a drone but right now there is likely way too much noise.

That, and the very large assumption that those Russian Drone hunter vehicles have gas and aren't being pulled away by the UKR tractor brigade.     

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28 minutes ago, akd said:

This column includes a bunch of Rosgvardia security assets. Riot protected vehicles, prisoner transport vehicles, riot gear, etc.

Ah, well that isn't much better, as security forces are also supposed to be in the rear.  Might be piggybacking on the CLIP as well, hence the fuel trucks (honestly couldn't make out much but a mess).

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I saw some good news today.  I've been worried about how well the pipeline of weapons is getting to the front.  NYTimes article today indicates that US supplied weapons were actually getting there very quickly.  I was thinking bureacracy and logistical friction would cause long delays.

And now I hope for some kind of non-linear event to break the current flow of events.  I was hoping for Putin to be overthrown somehow, but that hasn't happened.  Maybe a better chance is for mass mutinies of russian units who are hungry & scared.  We see it on very small scale as perfectly fine vehicles being abandoned, but hopefully it will spread.  Or if not mutinies then low enough morale that units are not combat effective, falling back immediately upon taking fire.

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