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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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31 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Again, I'm not blaming them. But when I heard the Russian threat to drop bombs there, I hoped that "at least people will avoid that area".

Remind me when exactly did russians warn about attacking a TV tower?

You people have no shame

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23 minutes ago, sburke said:

yes it has relative to Russia.  We still have plenty to bang each other over the head with but feelings towards Russia are rapidly skewing to Cold War levels.  Even Trump and Tucker Carlson have altered their positions more in line with general sentiment.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-74-percent-of-americans-call-russias-ukraine-invasion-unjustified-142128676.html

 

Well, that's a start, although I would have expected a higher percentage than 74%. The rest of that poll is downright worrying me.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The moment of second strike on TV-tower. Looks like incendiary ammunition (or even thermobaric) - the cameraman of second video (GRAPHIC!!!) says about the missile. Look at second video with a victims - the family of four person, which walked on the street lays in the poses like after flame strike. Also the building of old abandoned sport center behind also have a track of huge flame. One man killed by misile fragments

 

 

 

Also do you know that this tower is directly across the street from the Babi Yar massacre memorial? 33,000 Jews were murdered and thrown in to a ravine not too far from there. Maybe 100k more were buried over the course of the war. The memorial there is totally interfaith, a monument to all the victims of the Holocaust. It even has a memorial cross built by Ukrainians in 1943 for their dead. But now because of his hissy fit, the great "denazifier" Putin stains the monument to the tragedy of hate with the blood of new martyrs. 

Absolutely disgusting. ****ing livid. 

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3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, that's a start, although I would have expected a higher percentage than 74%. The rest of that poll is downright worrying me.

Didn't quarter of Americans think that 9/11 was an inside job?

Seems to be it's a stable percentage of that kind of people.

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7 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

2 GMRD just moved across the border a few days ago, but had not AFAIK been committed. I had thought it was one of the better divisions. BTR 80s indicate members of the 1st Guards Motorized Rifle Sevastopol Red Banner Order of Alexander Nevsky Regiment, source Global Security also cause it a 'Parade' division, clearly one of the equipment showcases. I had thought for sure they had T-90s and had been awaiting their deployment to the conflict. But now I see some sources saying its more -72B3s so I dont know what to believe. Just anecdotally though, those BTRs look like their in great shape. 

We saw them yesterday near Chernihiv

 

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1 hour ago, riptides said:

For all the ineptness, the Russians look to have a strong position of forces against the most populated Ukrainian cities.

To me, it is past the point of negotiations now, it is the battle for the survival of Ukraine itself. Where will the help come from for the Ukrainians?

I think only the people in Russia can stop this now. Perhaps the military itself. Some one has to step up.

Thing is Russia has lost the war.  They might still "win" the battle, but this thing is done in the sense of overall victory.  Putin has managed to

Unite the Ukrainian people in a frenzy of patriotism

Unified the West to take steps no one thought possible a week ago

Set up Lukashenko to face another revolt, possibly by his own army.

Reveal how decrepit the Russian military is

Seriously undermine his own position with his oligarchs, the security services and his own army

 

Ukraine will survive this regardless of how things go on the battlefield this week.  Putin however may not. I might have to start thinking of a new avatar.  Wouldn't that be a shame.

Edited by sburke
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Caution, this feed is visibly pro-Russian and rabidly anti-US -- note the 'demilitarization' bullshoi doublespeak!

But the map, whether it is accurate or merely aspirational, is too interesting not to note:

'Interdiction by fire' on an unprecedented scale. Sounds very Russian, but can they pull it off in practice without air supremacy?

 

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5 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Caution, this feed is visibly pro-Russian and rabidly anti-US -- note the 'demilitarization' bullshoi doublespeak!

 

 

This guy is a Putin troll 1st grade. Not LongLeftFlank ofc but the cited Twitter account "dancewithbears"

Edited by Sarjen
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33 minutes ago, akd said:

What does he say last BTR on right in back row is? Battery command vehicle?

"Communication BTR". Probably control vehicle 1KSh1 (or some newer analogue) of battalion's chief of the staff. And 1V14 near. This is Chemodanivka village near the P61 road between Sumy and Konotop

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6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

'Interdiction by fire' on an unprecedented scale. Sounds very Russian, but can they pull it off in practice without air supremacy?

 

Their initial plan was full occupation of Ukraine in 2 days with forces prepared for a parade in Kyiv, remember?

They even tried to destroy the TV tower because they genuinely believe that TV propaganda is what keeps Ukrainians resisting because they are projecting their own **** on us - being absolutely delusional about us being same as russians.

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13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

"You people" what?

The logic of "russians warned you about bombing an SBU building on one side of the city so you should avoid a completely unrelated district" is quite flawed.

Hence "you people" - as in the ones who would try to point out that victims shouldn't have done something based on very vague threats.

Plus that's not how russians work. They would never do what they say they'll do. Their goal after blitzkrieg failure is their long-time classic - terrorism through maximizing civilian casualties.

Just ask Grozny and Aleppo.

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This is the absolute military fundamental at the moment, most of the Russian's stuff just doesn't seem to work. Their missiles don't work, their logistics don't work, and their morale and effectiveness rivals that of the Romanians on the Eastern Front in WW2, or the Italians in North Africa. Just epic institutional failure all the way up and down.

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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Please ease up on Mft004 a bit.  I don't think he's adding much to this conversation either and the "2 sided coin" thing is getting really old.  By definition that means symmetrical perspectives, and there is absolutely no reality that doesn't involve tinfoil hats and/or object stupidity that shows this to be a symmetrical situation.  As I clearly demonstrated with initial post on the subject which had one side of the coin reasonably well stated and the other a bunch of factually incorrect drivel.

So Mark, here's the deal.  Drop the nonsense arguments that you make and then back away from when challenged.  Stick to the point of this thread and you will stay put in it.  My patience isn't what it was a week ago, so I'd not recommend doing too much to challenge it.  I'm only getting a couple of hours of sleep a night so that's not in your favor either.

Steve

P.S. for the rest of you guys, I had a lot of experience with overt Russian paid trolls and sock puppets during the 2014 crisis.  I have some things I can check later when I have a chance to.

This! If a member displeases you, and you think he/she is a troll, just put him/her on ignore. I can just about ensure that intelligence sources find the comments of Trolls to occasionally contain “gems” that can be used to develops intelligence into intentions. You don’t have to like it, since this site is in a country that states in it’s 200 plus-year old Constitution that free speech, and freedom of association will not infringed. That said, this is Steve’s website, and not a public or Government entity, so Steve gets to make the rules

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14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Caution, this feed is visibly pro-Russian and rabidly anti-US -- note the 'demilitarization' bullshoi doublespeak!

But the map, whether it is accurate or merely aspirational, is too interesting not to note:

'Interdiction by fire' on an unprecedented scale. Sounds very Russian, but can they pull it off in practice without air supremacy?

 

How on Gods green earth can they not have air supremacy?

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4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is the absolute military fundamental at the moment, most of the Russian's stuff just doesn't seem to work. Their missiles don't work, their logistics don't work, and their morale and effectiveness rivals that of the Romanians on the Eastern Front in WW2, or the Italians in North Africa. Just epic institutional failure all the way up and down.

Opportunity knocks...😀

But let's not get all Barbarossa.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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47 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, that's a start, although I would have expected a higher percentage than 74%. The rest of that poll is downright worrying me.

this is a better indicator.  When both parties are pushing to get an aid package there as fast as possible you can stop worrying about polls. 

Democrats, Republicans begin to rally around large Ukraine aid package (msn.com)

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9 minutes ago, kraze said:

The logic of "russians warned you about bombing an SBU building on one side of the city so you should avoid a completely unrelated district" is quite flawed.

Hence "you people" - as in the ones who would try to point out that victims shouldn't have done something based on very vague threats.

Plus that's not how russians work. They would never do what they say they'll do. Their goal after blitzkrieg failure is their long-time classic - terrorism through maximizing civilian casualties.

Just ask Grozny and Aleppo.

I'm sorry if my comment came across wrong.

What happened was that I tried to keep up with the news while at work, and I read something about the Russians warning about striking a particular spot. Didn't check where it was, since I don't know any landmarks in Kyiv. But just noted there had been a warning against something they called "the 72nd Main Center for Information and Psychological Operations". I thought this warning hopefully would mean no civilian casualties.

Then when the tower and nearby area was hit, I assumed this must be the spot they warned about. I'm not trying to excuse the Russian army in any way.

Edited by Bulletpoint
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1 hour ago, sburke said:

yes it has relative to Russia.  We still have plenty to bang each other over the head with but feelings towards Russia are rapidly skewing to Cold War levels.  Even Trump and Tucker Carlson have altered their positions more in line with general sentiment.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-74-percent-of-americans-call-russias-ukraine-invasion-unjustified-142128676.html

 

Not all Americans (or all people) I am sorry to say...

This filmed at a party conference event a couple of days ago in Florida as the war rages...

I guess this is the other side of the balanced coin?

 

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