How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

Well, I guess Elvis will know what to do with him. Happy holidays, Mark.

[Mft004]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

That's how you insta-detect russians here too. They say "western Ukraine" and "eastern Ukraine", as if separate countries - they think in these extremely weird regional/directional ways.

The region is relevant when it comes to strategic assets and nuclear targets; but please don't think I'm against a United Kingdom. The Union Jack is a pretty flag : )

[Mft004]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, I guess Elvis will know what to do with him. Happy holidays, Mark.

Elvis and Steve were very clear and rightly so; don't attack other posters. So if you call me a vulture, that's not a step in the right direction.

[George MC]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

That's how you insta-detect russians here too. They say "western Ukraine" and "eastern Ukraine", as if separate countries - they think in these extremely weird regional/directional ways.

Yeahs their defo no from the UK - here we think in cities/regions eg I’m in the Highlands or I’m in Inverness. Odd phrase they used like you suspect troll/shill. 

[chuckdyke]

First and foremost, we play CM here. If you don't play the game what is your purpose here?

[Mft004]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

First and foremost, we play CM here. If you don't play the game what is your purpose here?

CM is a good game, though I'm not a hardcore player and watching streams from a certain youtuber is more fun. He suggested the forum post for more information on the conflict. The conflict is the topic of this thread, not CM specifically. Why are you here?

[George MC]

4 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

The region is relevant when it comes to strategic assets and nuclear targets; but please don't think I'm against a United Kingdom. The Union Jack is a pretty flag : )

If you’re in the “northwest UK” your pretty bloody close to a multiple strategic targets. Care to name one major one? It’s all in the public domain. I’ll give you five minutes to Google. 

[George MC]

1 minute ago, Mft004 said:

Why are you here?

ChuckDyke? He’s a prolific CM player and weel kent. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by George MC

[Mft004]

2 minutes ago, George MC said:

If you’re in the “northwest UK” your pretty bloody close to a multiple strategic targets. Care to name one major one? It’s all in the public domain. I’ll give you five minutes to Google. 

Scotland under the Covenantars were pretty strict, but you guys never were part of the Inquisition. Surely you won't start that kind of policy now.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Mft004

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Mft004 said:

He suggested the forum post for more information on the conflict.

Well, if I want to be informed, I don't come here. First, I appreciate tips from fellow players. I am not interested in other players' biographies or life experiences which are none of my business. 

[Mft004]

Just now, chuckdyke said:

Well, if I want to be informed, I don't come here. First, I appreciate tips from fellow players. I am not interested in other players' biographies or life experiences which are none of my business. 

Then I guess we're here for two different reasons, which is not a problem.

I suggest we stay on the central topic, which is what I'm interested in.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

I suggest we stay on the central topic, which is what I'm interested in.

I suggest you invest in Black Sea for some hypothetical scenarios. 

[BeondTheGrave]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

BeondTheGrave, I think your professors missed something.  Or I missed reading something you wrote...

Russia uses the huge foreign reserve fund to cushion economic fluctuations, as it did in 2014 double hit from sanctions and oil price drop.  Inflation remains less than it would otherwise be, the currency doesn't go as low as it probably would.  Even with this, 2014 was really tough and stressed out the fund.

The reserve fund is in total something like $600b, some of which is in gold or the gold is separate (fuzzy on that).  The investments are in foreign currencies and are generally viewed as safe because there's hardly any history of such assets being frozen or worse.  Iran is one that definitely suffered from frozen assets.

In 2014 nobody froze these assets, this time pretty much everybody but the Chinese have.  It is estimated that means only $200b of the $600b are available to cushion the economic pain.

Freezing the assets also removes the possibility of a retaliatory strike by Russia to sell of X currency and flood the market, thus driving down the value of the targeted currency. 

So in one stroke of a keyboard in a half dozen countries Russia was denied a critical tool to both keep its economy from suffering and also a weapon to use/threaten others with.

And since it was done so quickly and so widespread by multiple currency holders at the same time, Russia had no ability to counter the move.  It's done.  Over and done.  Nothing Russia can do about it directly.

Then there is the whole problem of making investing in Russian sovereign debt illegal.  Not that anybody is interested in buying any at this point as for sure as nobody buys when something is in massive decline.  So right now not a big deal, but when things stabilize it could be.

And then there's the private sector.  Why did Gazprom and Rosneft partner with companies like Shell, BP, etc.?  Because they had expertise and infrastructure that those companies do not have.  In particular exploration and exploitation technologies.  Those are now unavailable to them.  And with the investments divested, threatening to hurt Western companies directly through lower corporate earnings is moot.

Now, I'm not saying that this means Russia will collapse.  I'm just pointing out that this time Russia is on a different playing field than the last time.  So far the economic indicators seem to reflect that the financial class sees this as both significant and bad for Russia.

Steve

Yeah I think I (and Dr. Mosher) would agree with that. I think what he was saying specifically RE the Russian economy was that they had used a variety of tools to insulate themselves from this kind of attack. Raising the war check and holding a lot of gold, minimizing external connections via the financial system, creating a parallel domestic payments system so SWIFT sanctions wouldn't cripple domestic trade, etc. All these things limits the pain, he said in the next 30-60 days, that sanctions will actually be able to inflict. Long term though for many of the reasons you point out and he also pointed out (re: Russia's mono-resource economy) sanctions are like the polonium in the tea. Tomorrow you wont die, but soon you will. 

Hes also a political scientist and you know theyre job is to be wrong about everything to make us historians look good. 

[Bulletpoint]

10 hours ago, db_zero said:

A 40 mile long convoy is reported on the moved towards Kyiv.

Are they going to launch an assault or just siege Kyiv?

Let's see if they run out of fuel first.

[Falaise]

2 pages invaded by a guy who never brought anything to this community there is a problem !!! he doesn't have even a own a game

[Holien]

8 minutes ago, Falaise said:

2 pages invaded by a guy who never brought anything to this community there is a problem !!! he doesn't have even a own a game

And has added ZERO value Everyone please stop feeding the troll..

[akd]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

The side skirt ERA bags do not have their explosive plate inserts, only the plastic spacers!  Also, turret rear side ERA pulled out and exposed on top of turret.  I believe this is 2S24 Kaktus?

[borg]

9 minutes ago, Falaise said:

2 pages invaded by a guy who never brought anything to this community there is a problem !!! he doesn't have even a own a game

Thanks God he doesn’t have access to the closed beta that Steve gave us . Im

beginning to think they like the ‘tactics’ and CM mechanics

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

 I believe this is 2S24 Kaktus?

Yep could be 2S24 ERA

https://sturgeonshouse.ipbhost.com/topic/6-the-soviet-tank-thread-transversely-mounted-1000hp-engines/?do=findComment&comment=153894

Yekaterinburg, Russia. 7th May, 2021. A T-72B3M tank (R) takes part in a dress rehearsal of a military parade marking the 76th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Credit: Donat Sorokin/TASS/Alamy Live News Stock Photo - Alamy

Edited March 1, 2022 by DesertFox

[CHEqTRO]

The EU has, reportedly, accepted Ukraine aplication. It will still take some time for them to oficially join, thought :

 

 

Regarding Russian planing, It seems that Russian comms were not coded. This thread compiles some of what was heard during the assault to Kharkiv. Some parts are devastating really:

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Battlefront.com]

Please ease up on Mft004 a bit.  I don't think he's adding much to this conversation either and the "2 sided coin" thing is getting really old.  By definition that means symmetrical perspectives, and there is absolutely no reality that doesn't involve tinfoil hats and/or object stupidity that shows this to be a symmetrical situation.  As I clearly demonstrated with initial post on the subject which had one side of the coin reasonably well stated and the other a bunch of factually incorrect drivel.

So Mark, here's the deal.  Drop the nonsense arguments that you make and then back away from when challenged.  Stick to the point of this thread and you will stay put in it.  My patience isn't what it was a week ago, so I'd not recommend doing too much to challenge it.  I'm only getting a couple of hours of sleep a night so that's not in your favor either.

Steve

P.S. for the rest of you guys, I had a lot of experience with overt Russian paid trolls and sock puppets during the 2014 crisis.  I have some things I can check later when I have a chance to.

[Mft004]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Please ease up on Mft004 a bit.  I don't think he's adding much to this conversation either and the "2 sided coin" thing is getting really old.  By definition that means symmetrical perspectives, and there is absolutely no reality that doesn't involve tinfoil hats and/or object stupidity that shows this to be a symmetrical situation.  As I clearly demonstrated with initial post on the subject which had one side of the coin reasonably well stated and the other a bunch of factually incorrect drivel.

So Mark, here's the deal.  Drop the nonsense arguments that you make and then back away from when challenged.  Stick to the point of this thread and you will stay put in it.  My patience isn't what it was a week ago, so I'd not recommend doing too much to challenge it.  I'm only getting a couple of hours of sleep a night so that's not in your favor either.

Steve

P.S. for the rest of you guys, I had a lot of experience with overt Russian paid trolls and sock puppets during the 2014 crisis.  I have some things I can check later when I have a chance to.

I accept the terms Steve. The practical cornerstone of democracy is majority ruling and I'm in the minority here, so don't want to upset the applecart. I'll reiterate only once that loss of the 2-sided coin mentality will chip away at free speech by and by, but I know saying it is getting old so I won't say it again. And yes we all need sleep.

Kind regards,

Mark

[Bulletpoint]

17 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Regarding Russian planing, It seems that Russian comms were not coded.

Is there nothing they can't do not right?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Phantom Captain]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Pay attantion Russian soldiers have old Soviet SSh-68 helmets. Either all bad in their army supply, or they are "separs" moved to Kharkiv front, probably from LNR

Noticed that right away too.