How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[CHEqTRO]

70 planes for Ukraine... That is like a third of the full inventory of aircraft, of all types, that they had pre-war. It seems that Ukranian pilots are in Poland and from there they will fly the planes to Ukraine

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What if those negotiations are just a ruse to buy some time to bring in the big guns and give the world some false hope in order to avoid more sanctions?

Could be?  I don't think Putin can buy more time from the west, that ship has sailed, he needs to buy more time from his own people.  I am not sure the "big guns", short of WMDs, are going to do much but make this a worse IO nightmare to be honest.  Remember those guns need supplies which will likely have to traverse 100 odd kms of increasingly hostile heavily armed back country, the flank security on that corridor alone would be brutal.

I am with you, this ain't over yet but my sense is that the worst case scenario for the west, a 3 day war with Ukraine's total surrender before it can even organize resistance, has left the building.  We are quickly approaching "forced to negotiate a quick out or bleed for months" which is not really a good strategic position by any metric.

[CHEqTRO]

7 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

70 planes for Ukraine... That is like a third of the full inventory of aircraft, of all types, that they had pre-war. It seems that Ukranian pilots are in Poland and from there they will fly the planes to Ukraine

No planes from Bulgaria thought:

Understandable, considering the composition of the Bulgarian airforce

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Seedorf81]

22 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

With the invasion being such an incomparably catastrophic f-up in every conceivable way for Putin and his regime; is there really any way to avoid nuclear brinkmanship at this point and how to proceed in that event? ...As Steve said very far up thread, there's nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal (much less rabid), and now they are even threatening "consequences" for any nation that provides lethal arms/means to Ukraine which most NATO countries have already committed to very publicly. This is a contemporary Cuban Missile crisis but perhaps exponentially worse because it truly is involving the whole world. 

...long time (decade+) lurker, own all the games etc. Thanks BF for keeping this thread open. Appreciate any response or thoughts regarding the above question. 

If the next week doesn't bring a huge improvement for the Russians, some real military succes, I fear the worst. Like I mentioned in a previous reply: "What can Putin do to safe face??"

Back down? Settle for a small landbridge in the Southeast? While he's been totally humiliated by pretty much the whole world?

I don't think so. Maybe he doesn't even know how bad the situation in reality is, because generals and cronies don't usually like to tell bad news to stressed-out dictators, and he most likely believes the Russian tv/news-reports over those from the West.

A succesful coup doesn't seem very likely to me, since he's already paranoid and a former KGB officer, so he'll be on the lookout for that.

Thinking about it scares the **** outta me, but I think he may go for nukes.

 

  

[womble]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The point of this is even for the tip of the spear units there is a smaller amount of conscripts, but for the other units there is smaller amount of contract soldiers. 

17 minutes ago, db_zero said:

What's the overall proportion of conscripts to "regulars" in the Russian army these days? With 170million and every new male adult required to serve a year, sounds like there should be about 1 and a quarter million conscripts per year. That's more than the headline total number of "active personnel". Yet the numbers Google's offering me for the six-monthly draft would only put 270k in uniform annually. That's a lot of exemptions. But does "about a third" sound right for the fraction of serving personnel who are conscripts?

[Doc844]

So maybe it's time for some back channel talk with russian generals/opposition leaders, sort of like, hey your army is in the **** in ukraine, your economy is tanking hard, so maybe if you  "remove" Mr Putin from power and begin a phased withdrawal back to your own borders we will reverse the worst sanctions before Mr Mad starts throwing nukes around cause hey we all have grandkids.

[Fernando]

Sometimes I think I am seeing a redo of the Winter War. The Finnish Ukrainians stop cold the incredibly incapable Russian juggernaut, then it piles more and more brute force, so it finally "wins". It is not the victory they seeked (annexing Finland/Ukraina) at all, but in the end they avoid a clear military defeat. On the other hand it is clear the Soviets had the strenght to break the Mannerheim line in the end, but I have a feeling the Russians has not enought brute force to do the same this time. I hope so.

If I was Putin, I would do a supreme effort to encircle Kiev and perhaps Kharvov and move a force to Lviv/Lvov/Lemberg from Brest with lots of supply support to ensure that this timne the force can reach its objetive. I am very esceptic that NATO would oppose that move. If the Russian force couldn't reach Lviv, the new front would streech the Ucranian forces really thin, so it would eventually break somewhere.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Fernando

[Bulletpoint]

54 minutes ago, db_zero said:

3. Use the TOS1s and level cities.

Why do people keep referring to this rocket launcher as some kind of nuke? The videos I've seen of it firing show it firing a barrage of rockets, yes... but nothing like a nuclear weapon. Nothing that will level a city in one go.

[Armorgunner]

The Times repport that over 400 Russian mercenarys (Maybe wagner group) is opperating in Kiev, to take out Zelensky!

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/volodymyr-zelensky-russian-mercenaries-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

Edited February 28, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

https://espreso.tv/do-1400-bulo-znishcheno-ponad-200-odinits-tekhniki-okupantiv-na-napryamkakh-trasi-irpin-zhitomir-arestovich

 

Is that true? @Haiduk 200 destroyed vehicles? @Battlefront.com

 

Any declared enemy losses should be divided in 5-10 times Let's see in next days, maybe we will have video confirmations

For now, some new Russian equipment, many of us are asking "where?"

First spotted captured T-72B3M. It carries tactical insignia of 26th tank reginent of 47 Guard tank division - the unit, which was restored in 2022. Dislocation - Mulino, Nizhnyi Novgorod oblast. Location is somewhere in Sumy - Konotop area.

 

Abandoned Russian Pantsyr S1 in Kherson oblast

 

Teared off BMD-4M. GRAPHIC VIDEO !!!

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1498001384377040899

Edited February 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

I saw some reports (yesterday?  Damn, so hard to remember) that The Wagner Group is preparing to do something.  So yeah, possible hit squad.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

The Times repport that 400 Russian mercenarys (Maybe wagner group) is inbound, to take out Zelensky!

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/volodymyr-zelensky-russian-mercenaries-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

That's something I was and am afraid for. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Sometimes I think I am seeing a redo of the Winter War. The Finnish Ukrainians stop cold the incredibly incapable Russian juggernaut, then it piles more and more brute force, so it finally "wins". It is not the victory they seeked (annexing Finland/Ukraina) at all, but in the end they avoid a clear military defeat. On the other hand it is clear the Soviets had the strenght to break the Mannerheim line in the end, but I have a feeling the Russians has not enought brute force to do the same this time. I hope so.

If I was Putin, I would do a supreme effort to encircle Kiev and perhaps Kharvov and move a force to Lviv/Lvov/Lemberg with lots of supply support to ensure that this timne the force can reach its objetive. I am very esceptic that NATO would oppose that move. If the Russian force couldn't reach Lviv, the new front would streech the Ucranian forces really thin, so it would eventually break somewhere.

So happy to see you posting!

Steve

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'll sleep better when somebody can "Putin" a bullet in the right place.

like the line from Justified where Raylan tosses the bullet on Wynn Duffy and says "the next one is coming faster"

[Fernando]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So happy to see you posting!

Steve

Glad to read you too, Steve!

BTW everything you post is informative and really sound.

[keas66]

11 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

That's something I was and am afraid for. 

The Wagner Group are the same bunch that got annihilated in Syria by the US Special Forces  ?  Maybe the Ukrainians can take care of them the way they have been dealing with the rest of the Special Forces types in the last week .

Edited February 28, 2022 by keas66
correct iraq to syria

[Pelican Pal]

17 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Why do people keep referring to this rocket launcher as some kind of nuke? The videos I've seen of it firing show it firing a barrage of rockets, yes... but nothing like a nuclear weapon. Nothing that will level a city in one go.

I think largely because of the implication

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Pelican Pal said:

I think largely because of the implication

You see the same bombed out buildings in every war since WW2...

[Pelican Pal]

Sure but people are rightly talking about it happening again with some trepidation. Especially since we've yet to see that sort of destruction in Ukraine yet. The TOS-1 is a sort of urban combat Chekov's gun in that regard

and I've not really seen much info about how many civilians are still remaining in Kyiv/Karhkiv although talking to my acquaintances their families seem to be staying put in the major cities rather than trying to flee

... But anyway people are bringing up the TOS-1 not because any individual missile has that much impact but using limited logistics capability to role forward them doesn't bode well for the future of urban Ukraine and the people still there. The Russians aren't doing it for fun and it points to how they might expect fighting to go in the near future.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Pelican Pal

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

You see the same bombed out buildings in every war since WW2...

well in the end enough HE will bring everything down. But some booms are bigger and or nastier and or better at bringing down buildings.

Thermobaric munitions work good against entrenched troops, buildings, bunkers, etc.

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It's fascinating to see how afraid everone is, during meetings and discussions with Putin. Even his chief of the security service. Fear easily changes into hate, so there's also hope on that front.

When I was studying Spanish (Castilian) in high school (secondary school in some countries),I learned a poem by a Spanish poet. As it was about 54 or 55 years ago, I don’t remember the poet’s name, or even if it was written before the Franco regime. I ask in advance that Spanish speakers forgive any spelling or syntax errors. The poem, and it’s translation goes like this; “En esta Mundo tratador, nada es verdad ni mentido. Todo es la color del crystal buscamos habias.” “In this traitor world, nothing is truth nor lie. All is the color of the glasses through you look. Additionally, please look at the number 6. Remember that from a different perspective or point of view, it might also be a 9.

 

please keep those things in mind when you post, and provide actual proof from a known, reliable source when making accusations on either side of the argument.

[Suchy]

Ukraine's Rada has announced that the country will receive a total of 70 aircraft from EU countries. Poland will hand over 28 Mig-29s, Slovakia 12 such aircraft, and Bulgaria 16, plus 15 Su-25s.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Glad to read you too, Steve!

BTW everything you post is informative and really sound.

When things calm down, we should have a long overdue catching up.

8 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The Wagner Group are the same bunch that got annihilated in Syria by the US Special Forces  ?  Maybe the Ukrainians can take care of them the way they have been dealing with the rest of the Special Forces types in the last week .

Yes, that is the same group.  The first came to people's attention when Russia sent them into Ukraine to clean up some of the less compliant goons Russia hired to "govern".  They operated about a company sized force at that time all in Tigr trucks.  The same type that Putin said anybody could have bought at surplus shops across Russia.

There was a very infamous one where they had surrounded a Cossack leader who had been skimming from supplies being sent in by Russia for both people and their armed insurgents.  They were then having quite the black market profit making enterprise until they surrounded his HQ and started shooting the Hell out of it.  The phone call of him pleading for people to come and help him was intercepted by the SBU and made for entertaining listening.

I would not be too afraid of Wagner.  They are just thugs with combat skills hired out for profit.  I doubt they'll do any better than that OMAN group that got shot up in Kiev a couple of days ago.  I presume they had a similar mission.

Steve

[CHEqTRO]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

When I was studying Spanish (Castilian) in high school (secondary school in some countries),I learned a poem by a Spanish poet. As it was about 54 or 55 years ago, I don’t remember the poet’s name, or even if it was written before the Franco regime. I ask in advance that Spanish speakers forgive any spelling or syntax errors. The poem, and it’s translation goes like this; “En esta Mundo tratador, nada es verdad ni mentido. Todo es la color del crystal buscamos habias.” “In this traitor world, nothing is truth nor lie. All is the color of the glasses through you look. Additionally, please look at the number 6. Remember that from a different perspective or point of view, it might also be a 9.

 

please keep those things in mind when you post, and provide actual proof from a known, reliable source when making accusations on either side of the argument.

Let me correct it for you then

"Y es que en el mundo traidor, nada hay verdad o mentira, todo es según el color, del cristal con el que se mira".

It was written by Ramón de Campoamor

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Suchy said:

Ukraine's Rada has announced that the country will receive a total of 70 aircraft from EU countries. Poland will hand over 28 Mig-29s, Slovakia 12 such aircraft, and Bulgaria 16, plus 15 Su-25s.

I saw an official Bulgarian announcement that they aren't a part of the deal.  Sorry, I didn't bookmark the link.

Steve