How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[CHEqTRO]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

At some point during Desert Storm/Shield Russia pushed hard to get the war to stop.  Analysts were saying that the main reason for that was the images of all that Soviet weaponry being totally useless against Coalition forces was really bad for their arms export business.  Not too surprising to see a lot of countries shift over to Western built systems in the years that followed..

I doubt anybody in the Russian government is thinking of this right now while in crisis mode, but at some point they probably will.

Steve

 

13 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Don't the Russians have something like 31.000 tanks and other armored vehicles?

I didnt meant tanks exactly, but rather as a metaphor of their military units. The more military units are tied up on Ukraine, and getting destroyed there, the less that can be used to attack Poland. Right now making a move on Poland or Turkey would be suicidal; the more they keep fighting Ukraine, the more sucidal it gets. That fact is probably not lost on EU and NATO military planners, and as such, they can increase the pressure on Russia, as the threat of retaliation is low.

One of the reasons why Europe is acting so decisively is because the Ukranians are resisting the Russian onslaugth. If the Ukranians had folded up, sanctions would probably had been more limited initially, and the thought of giving weapons to the Ukranians would have been dismissed.

I mean, you have the example of the closure of the Bosphorus. Turkey has gone ahead with that decision because the threat of Russian retaliation is extremely low.

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hmm, yes. Never understood why Hong Kong was 'given back'.

But we in the West won't forget the role China is playing right now.

It wasn’t “given back,” the 99-year lease expired, and PRC was under no obligation to renew it. Don’t forget, the “lease” resulted from the British/China Opium War that Britain won, gaining the” HK lease,” and the “right” to sell Opium in China, which had previously been punishable by death.

[Bulletpoint]

I don't think this war really showcases the Russian military hardware as being bad.

They could be attacking in Abrams tanks and still lose if the troops inside have zero motivation to use them.

Just like in Iraq against Islamic State, and recently in Afghanistan where the Afghan army threw down all their western gear and lost the war in a matter of days.

 

https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/russian-su-25-frogfoot-eats-missile-and-keeps-flying/

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[BeondTheGrave]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Beyond this conflict, Russia will spend a very long time without anybody fearing a conventional war with them.  Before this war they spent a lot of time doing things to convince the world they were stronger than they in fact were.  Now that everybody has seen they really are as weak as they are, it's going to be tough for Russia to get people to take them seriously again.

Steve

In January we existed in a tri polar world. In March it will be bipolar. Regardless of other on the ground factors. 

[BeondTheGrave]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Most sources say around 12.5k but they really cannot send them all to Ukraine.

And to this point, AFAIK no other military districts have been mobilized. In order to commit additional troops Putin either needs to mobilize his allies or mobilize more Russians. But mobilizing Russians will cause a direct domestic cost. He can do it, but his 'account' at home is already running dry. 

@CHEqTRO 

Quote

That fact is probably not lost on EU and NATO military planners, and as such, they can increase the pressure on Russia, as the threat of retaliation is low.

Also almost certainly the reason why Putin has escalated his nuclear forces. As @The_Capt says, his option space is low and he needs a deterrent. Were it not for the nuclear deterrent NATO would have almost certainly intervened by now. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

In January we existed in a tri polar world. In March it will be bipolar. Regardless of other on the ground factors. 

Or unipolar if Putin pushes the button and China stays out of it.

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think this war really showcases the Russian military hardware as being bad.

They could be attacking in Abrams tanks and still lose if the troops inside have zero motivation to use them.

Just like in Iraq against Islamic State, and recently in Afghanistan where the Afghan army threw down all their western gear and lost the war in a matter of days.

 

https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/russian-su-25-frogfoot-eats-missile-and-keeps-flying/

 

I would sleep a lot better when the second Russian attack wave also has failed. 

[CHEqTRO]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Or unipolar if Putin pushes the button and China stays out of it.

Do not worry, in case of nuclear war the firsts to nuke the chinese will be the russians themselves.

[womble]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not too surprising to see a lot of countries shift over to Western built systems in the years that followed..

Except in the field of operational air defense maybe? I gather the UA bigger-than-MANPAD gear is Russian pattern... or are their AA successes largely due to Stinger?

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Do not worry, in case of nuclear war the firsts to nuke the chinese will be the russians themselves.

Yeah thats a real race to the bottom isn't it? I would not be surprised in the slightest if, in an all in scenario, both the US and Russia dont have a 'Samson' strategy. 

Also

L ****ING O L 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

And to this point, AFAIK no other military districts have been mobilized. In order to commit additional troops Putin either needs to mobilize his allies or mobilize more Russians. But mobilizing Russians will cause a direct domestic cost. He can do it, but his 'account' at home is already running dry. 

Now in another reality, this would be where NATO builds up forces in the Baltics to pin down any Russian re-deploying options...oh wait they did that with the VJTF: https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-combat-ready-force-eastern-states-russia/31723732.html

 

[CHEqTRO]

5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Also almost certainly the reason why Putin has escalated his nuclear forces. As @The_Capt says, his option space is low and he needs a deterrent. Were it not for the nuclear deterrent NATO would have almost certainly intervened by now. 

Exactly. Thats why they all look so distressed on those meetings. They have lost all form of economical and conventional deterrence towards the West ( And China really). The nukes is the only thing that they have left at this point

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I would sleep a lot better when the second Russian attack wave also has failed. 

I'll sleep better when somebody can "Putin" a bullet in the right place.

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Now in another reality, this would be where NATO builds up forces in the Baltics to pin down any Russian re-deploying options...oh wait they did that with the VJTF: https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-combat-ready-force-eastern-states-russia/31723732.html

 

Wow that really slipped by huh? 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[L0ckAndL0ad]

Hi everyone. Nikita here.

I'm still in Crimea. I have to be careful with every word, especially after being detained on 24th by police and FSB, so I will be brief. I am literally shaking as I type due to adrenaline, but we all need to be strong these days.

1) Ukraine will be free. The bastards will fail. I can clearly see it.

2) We witness an insane amount of heroism. Which is truly inspiring.

3) Thanks to Steve and other people from here who were kind to me in the past and took time and patience to communicate with me. It made a lot of difference in the end and made me a person who I am today.

[Pete Wenman]

2 minutes ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Hi everyone. Nikita here.

Stay safe mate

P

 

[Armorgunner]

32 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

We can only hope.

true 

[womble]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

that is what we in the business call "half-assed".

Oh, you grizzled veterans and your obscure technical jargon!!

[Jace11]

War on the Rocks podcast: A pretty fair review of the opening few days, and a warning that Russia may have had setbacks but still has considerable reserves and is likely to adapt etc. Also seem to be winning in the south.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/

[George MC]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think it is pretty safe to assume that the attacks on Russia's supply capacity is having an effect, even if only locally.  From what I've seen of Russian military organization, tracing back into Soviet days, is that logistics lack redundancy.  Taking out one or two trucks might be enough to create at least some hassle (more trips to do the same thing), but zapping an entire supply unit probably means whomever they were supplying is going to come up short until another unit's supply system can compensate.  Degrade two or more in one area at one time?  Much bigger problems.

Remember, even if Russia has extra vehicles and crews, it takes time to get them positioned and functioning.  If the entire unit is wiped out, even worse.  Days if not weeks to undo the disruption.

Steve

Just read this summation of Russia’s supply issues. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-logistics-invasion/

[theFrizz]

thanks for the updates guys. 

[Vic4]

With the invasion being such an incomparably catastrophic f-up in every conceivable way for Putin and his regime; is there really any way to avoid nuclear brinkmanship at this point and how to proceed in that event? ...As Steve said very far up thread, there's nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal (much less rabid), and now they are even threatening "consequences" for any nation that provides lethal arms/means to Ukraine which most NATO countries have already committed to very publicly. This is a contemporary Cuban Missile crisis but perhaps exponentially worse because it truly is involving the whole world. 

...long time (decade+) lurker, own all the games etc. Thanks BF for keeping this thread open. Appreciate any response or thoughts regarding the above question. 

[Armorgunner]

Swedish media reported 90 minutes ago, about a 27km long convoy of mech units heading for Kiev. Tanks, IFV/APC, tankers, atillery, and other support.  Refering to actuall satelite photos!

 

Ukrainian artillery, and CAS. You have your targets! Unleash hell on them  Slava Ukraini 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, Jace11 said:

War on the Rocks podcast: A pretty fair review of the opening few days, and a warning that Russia may have had setbacks but still has considerable reserves and is likely to adapt etc. Also seem to be winning in the south.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/

Exactly. I'm getting extremely nervous from all that optimism. So much wishful thinking. The Russians haven't even started yet and the world thinks they are beaten. If Kiev holds I can believe it, but not before.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Aragorn2002