How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Holien]

Gents a gentle prod we are keeping this thread open by talking about Ukraine. Russia has invaded Ukraine  

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

I think a key difference between Ukraine and Taiwan is that the USA has publicly promised to intervene if China attacks. No such promise has ever been given about Ukraine, as far as I am aware.

Perhaps we should extend NATO to the rest of the world. A kind of super NATO, membership restricted to respectable, democratic  countries. We're heading for a third world war with Russia and China in this century, of that I'm convinced.

[Aragorn2002]

13 minutes ago, Holien said:

Gents a gentle prod we are keeping this thread open by talking about Ukraine. Russia has invaded Ukraine  

What's wrong with discussing the consequences and emotions as well? This goes much further than the war in Ukraine. This isn't an isolated conflict. It's the shape of things to come. A new cold war.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Vet 0369]

28 minutes ago, borg said:

I still can’t fathom the idea - that a country is invading another country - and the rest of the world is watching & talking - Sanctioning and freezing . Aren’t there any rules / violations when a country decides to enter another sovereign state and attack its capital , people and many other cities . Sorry for the rant . But I’m trying to find solace about the rationale.

Yes, there is. It’s called the UN Security Council. Unfortunately, there are five members that have veto power to block any UN action. One of those five is Russia. The only reason the UN was able to confront North Korea when it invaded the south was because the Security Council was able to propose and vote on the resolution when the Soviet Representative was out of the room. You can be sure that never happened, and never will happen, again.

 

[womble]

41 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I suppose he might be able to try for Moldova with some hope of dodging a full NATO response

Or Georgia...

[DMS]

34 minutes ago, borg said:

still can’t fathom the idea - that a country is invading another country - and the rest of the world is watching & talking - Sanctioning and freezing . Aren’t there any rules / violations when a country decides to enter another sovereign state and attack its capital , people and many other cities . Sorry for the rant . But I’m trying to find solace about the rationale.

I am afraid to say this, bringing hot political discussion. But. Did you hear about such countries as Yugoslavia, Iraq, Lybia, Syria? Syria was bombed by foreign aviation today, by the way. I couldn't help saying it. Not to justify invasion, not to advocate Putin, just saying.

[Vic4]

What happens when Putin does engage/attack a NATO country (i.e. one of the Baltics)? Conventional warfare, nuclear, or a withdraw and let him have it because it was once part of the USSR and no one wants WW3? 

[Holien]

Looks like Ukraine is getting resupply 

Russia invades Ukraine: Live updates (cnn.com)
First publicly acknowledged military aid arrives in Ukraine since invasion
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Josh Pennington

Poland has shipped a convoy with ammunition to Ukraine, according to the country's Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak, making it the first publicly acknowledged shipment of military aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.
“A convoy of ammunition we are donating to Ukraine has already reached our neighbors. We stand by the Ukrainians, and show solidarity against Russian aggression," he said in a tweet.
The tweet neither described the sort of ammunition Poland sent the Ukrainians nor the amount.

[CHEqTRO]

1 minute ago, Vic4 said:

What happens when Putin does engage/attack a NATO country (i.e. one of the Baltics)? Conventional warfare, nuclear, or a withdraw and let him have it because it was once part of the USSR and no one wants WW3? 

Conventional warfare, atleast until they cross the Vistula, and threathen to cross the Oder. After that, maybe there is tactical nuclear use. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Doc844]

Russia now saying that if Finland were allowed to join Nato that there would be severe military repercussions.  Is this how the sTory goes, Putin threatens military action to paralyze nato in case ww3 kicks off.  Bit of a rock and a hard place in my opinion.  If nato does nothing putin will grow bolder and ww3 may still happen, probably even more likely.

[Vic4]

14 minutes ago, Holien said:

Looks like Ukraine is getting resupply 

Russia invades Ukraine: Live updates (cnn.com)
First publicly acknowledged military aid arrives in Ukraine since invasion
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Josh Pennington

Poland has shipped a convoy with ammunition to Ukraine, according to the country's Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak, making it the first publicly acknowledged shipment of military aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.
“A convoy of ammunition we are donating to Ukraine has already reached our neighbors. We stand by the Ukrainians, and show solidarity against Russian aggression," he said in a tweet.
The tweet neither described the sort of ammunition Poland sent the Ukrainians nor the amount.

Doesn't the decision to make this public seems like a very big risk of a perceived escalation by NATO? 

Thanks CHEqTRO for the above reply. ... Just f-ing terrible... 

[John Kettler]

 

 

 

 

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

35m

 

"In a few days of intervention in Ukraine, as many Russian servicemen will be killed as in two Chechen wars. Thousands. Thousands" – Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov has just addressed Russians, "especially the wives, mothers, girlfriends of Russian soldiers and officers".

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

58m

 

22:00 EET The situation now is threatening for Kyiv - without exaggeration. The next night, especially in the morning, will be very difficult. Russian troops are close to the capital. The military and law enforcement are neutralizing sabotage groups in the city, - Kyiv mayor

 

 

 

 

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

56m

 

To defend the capital from the advancing aggressor, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade of Kyiv is already complete on 100% by volunteers. Now we are deciding on the creation of additional units of defenders of Kyiv - the mayor Vitaliy Klychko.

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

55m

 

In the capital, bridges have been taken under protection and special control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are also setting checkpoints not only at the main entrances to the city, but also block traffic near strategic facilities in the capital, - Kyiv mayor

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

3h

 

"At the moment, the fiercest fighting is in the Kharkiv direction, Sumy Oblast and in the south of Ukraine." – Mychaylo Podoliak, Presidential Office, 18:50 EET.

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

2h

 

20:00 EET Fake information massively spread in Sumy region. Information that cities"surrendered" and the authorities fled - fake. Sumy and other district centers of the region are under our control - Head of Oblast Administration Fighting in the region continues - Military

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

1h

 

20:00 EET Further information from Sumy region head. Situation in the city is calm, territorial defense undergoes its formation and deployment, large groups of Russian vehicles are moving towards Kyiv, a large group of tanks is reported. Connection with local districts is stable

 

Euromaidan Press@EuromaidanPress·1hThe convoy with the ammunition from Poland has entered Ukraine.

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

3h

 

16:00 EET Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups operate insidiously, disguising themselves in civilian clothes and infiltrating Ukrainian cities in order to destabilize the situation by carrying out sabotage operations - General Staff

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

4h

 

Suspilne reports that after heavy battles Ukrainian forces lost bridge to Kherson. We can't verify this because the official web-source is down.

https://t.co/6dlQj1N6NW
 

Euromaidan Press Retweeted

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stratcom Centre UA

 

@StratcomCentre

·

2h

 

The Russian occupiers are shelling in Kharkiv where over a million civilians live. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively resisting and defending our city. We believe in our Ukrainian army! #RussiaInvadedUkraine #StandWithUkraine #StopWar

Euromaidan Press@EuromaidanPress·4h

 

Lithuania will help Ukraine by providing additional armoured vests, helmets, automatic rifles and ammunition.

I would note Germany is sending 5000 helmets, with delivery at Polish-Ukrainian border. This is from another Euromaidan Press post, but by then, I'd run out of steam.
 

 

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

Consequences of the Russian artillery attack on the North-Luhansk town of Starobilsk (Copy link  function didn't work again, its default setting!). It's easily found by scrolling until you find a devastated town, part of which is burning and most of which is heavily damaged or destroyed. Currently, it's at the 5 hours ago location in the thread, right above the pics of the bunkering ship hit.

 

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

 

This is the most recent directly military stuff on this site, but there is much, too, on sanctions, alliances, expressions of determination (including Zelensky's being in Kviv and declaring he's staying with the people, solidarity with Ukraine, blistering of Putin, even the authorization of the issuance of military bonds, what we in the US called war bonds. It's unclear to me whether the statement about Russian sabotage groups is based on attacks made and more to be prevented or simply an understanding of how Russian diversionary troops operate.

 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler

[Doc844]

Any thoughts on what if, what if the likes of Poland and other eastern European nato members are starting to get twitchy and are purposefully making moves that russia will respond to and then Natos hand would be forced, article 5 would automatically trigger. ???

[Holien]

19 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Doesn't the decision to make this public seems like a very big risk of a perceived escalation by NATO?

IMO no we already supplied Javelins and other weapons so that boat has already sailed.

NATO has been very clear and open with the Russian Cabal no boots on the ground but supply of weapons will happen especially if Russia crossed the border. 

[CHEqTRO]

It seems Russia is actually sending unexperience conscripts into battle in Ukraine. If this report is to be believed, they didnt even knew they were going to war. There is this video about an Ukranian woman arguing with a Russian soldier asking what are they doing in their city, and the guy respond that they are actually in execises.

It is also worth noting that Russia has, as of yet, only employed around 30-50% of its forces deployed aloong the Ukranian border during the buildup. Also, it seems that they have failed in destroying key Ukranian infrastructure and the Ukranian air force and AA is still operative. You have to wonder why the Russians are conducting such a botched attack honestly.

Also, the russians are sending a message...

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[CHEqTRO]

3 minutes ago, Doc844 said:

Any thoughts on what if, what if the likes of Poland and other eastern European nato members are starting to get twitchy and are purposefully making moves that russia will respond to and then Natos hand would be forced, article 5 would automatically trigger. ???

They dont need that. Harsh economic sanctions are enough to seriously harm the russian capability to attack into their countries.

Also, talking about sanctions:

 

Cutoff of relations between NATO/EU and Russia inminent

 

[The_Capt]

If Russia employs tactical nuclear weapons, or even chemical...I am going out back to dig a deep hole.  

[John Kettler]

Ref the above, it appears the Ukrainians have learned some hard lessons elsewhere and are now applying them in Kviv, securing there what apparently wasn't elsewhere. The arrival of the Polish ammunition convoy in Ukraine is marvelous news, especially if ATGMs are included, as is the complete filling out by volunteers of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade of Kviv. Clearly, at least some Ukrainian civilians are willing to fight!

2 minutes ago, Holien said:

IMO no we already supplied Javelins and other weapons so that boat has already sailed.

NATO has been very clear and open with the Russian Cabal no boots on the ground but supply of weapons will happen especially if Russia crossed the border. 

Holien,

Based on reporting I've seen, both the UK and the US have training teams in Ukraine--or at least did. The British were sent in when the NLAWs were delivered to teach the UA hiw to use it, and the US has had trainers with the UA for months, I believe, maybe even longer than that. Ours were doing military training generally and weapon specific training, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Bulletpoint]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Russia employs tactical nuclear weapons, or even chemical...I am going out back to dig a deep hole.  

If Assad can use chemical weapons without repercussions, why not Putin?

[Commanderski]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Russia employs tactical nuclear weapons, or even chemical...I am going out back to dig a deep hole.

Saw this in the comments of Fox news  "2 years of food, a bunker in the mountains and a modest arsenal. Crazy they called me. NOW they want to know if I have room for them."

[CHEqTRO]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Russia employs tactical nuclear weapons, or even chemical...I am going out back to dig a deep hole.  

Hahaha not a bad idea, even thought I highly doubt that we would see full strategic exchange, even if the situtation deteriorates a lot.

Also, in reference to the video I posted earlier of the TOPOL-M ICBM, its important to note that technically they are moving to Moscow for the Victory Day parade. Althought the timing is definetively interisting  (Most likely just the russians trying to create a little bit of panic, they do not need to move their ICBM to Moscow to be able to attack, well, any place on Earth, really)

Edited February 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Bulletpoint]

Putin doesn't want world war 3. If he wanted that, he could just have pushed the button, or at least attacked the Baltics or Poland. He wants Ukraine because he thinks it's historically part of Russia, because he wants to leave a legacy, and because he's an intelligent sociopath who realises that Ukraine is an unguarded chess piece since they are not in NATO. I think that's all. Not digging a bunker just yet.

[John Kettler]

CHEqTRO,

The Russians did even worse in the Russia-Afghanistan War. Troops were blindfolded and shipped into A'stan in the dark, not realizing they'd left Soviet territory! Want to say, too, that in the 2014 invasion of Ukraine something similar was done then, as well. Frankly, Russia is kinder and gentler, giving beatings instead of being sent to still likely existing penal units or firing squads. Refusing a military movement in wartime was and is a capital offense in the Red Army.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[CHEqTRO]

1 minute ago, John Kettler said:

CHEqTRO,

The Russians did even worse in the Russia-Afghanistan War. Troops were blindfolded and shipped into A'stan in the dark, not realizing they'd left Soviet territory! Want to say, too, that in the 2014 invasion of Ukraine something similar was done then, as well. Frankly, Russia is kinder and gentler, giving beatings instead of being sent to still likely existing penal units or firing squads. Refusing a military movement in wartime was and is a capital offense in the Red Army.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Yeah I am not surprised by this action from the Russian army. Specially considering the sub-standard performance of the Russian Army till now. Putin is holding its true army back, either in case it needs to escalate against NATO, or to deliver a fatal blow to the spent Ukranians

[Holien]

8 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Based on reporting I've seen, both the UK and the US have training teams in Ukraine--or at least did. The British were sent in when the NLAWs were delivered to teach the UA hiw to use it, and the US has had trainers with the UA for months, I believe, maybe even longer than that. Ours were doing military training generally and weapon specific training, too.

Yep but that was before the invasion and I am pretty certain when we told all British to leave Ukraine they left.

Of course there might be some folk on vacation that are seeing the historic sights...