Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

Now we have a name of captured pilot of Su-35S

Mayor Sergey Yermalov, 159th Fighter Aviation Regiment, Besovets airfield, Karelia, 105th Mixed Aviation Division, 6th AF and AD Army, Western Military District

Had 40 sorties in Syria and 15 in Ukraine. Last two missions were search&destroy UKR AD assets

277585801_7485416331498598_3725340699913208188_n.jpg.webp

Edited by Haiduk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If it's man portable and can reach out and touch Ivan, send it along!

Separ militias still scraping the bottom of the kit barrel.

While Mother Russia scrapes its manpower barrel. And a lot of those military aged men are not Slavs....

 

 

Ballpark numbers...

Military age males are about 10% of the total population according to that. That graphic says total is ~146 million, so MAMs number about 15 million.

If Russia has suffered 15,000 KIA and another 45,000 WIA, that's a mere 60k from that manpower barrel. 

Given that a society cannot draft 100% of the MAM into combat, unless the end is nigh (see Third Reich, about February of 1945), then let's say about 1/3 can be used. 5 million available, 60k casualties.

Russia can dig a lot deeper.

Can Putin survive if Russia digs deeper? Aye, now there's the question...

Edited to add: and, what the hell are they going to equip them with??? I'll bet the new conscripts will have thought the days of, "grab the weapon of the man ahead of you when he falls" was behind them.

Edited by c3k
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, c3k said:

 

Got it, thanks.

The withdrawal was announced prior to occurring...which is odd. (If I've got my timeline correct.)

If the best conventional Ukrainian units are in the Donbas, then that means Kyiv (<- trying to keep up with the "new" spelling in English) was a classic holding action with tier-2 units. That would explain the inability to pocket/cutoff the retreating Russians. To me, that Russian penetration was ripe for some large-scale surrenders. However, as you state, the distances the Russians needed to cover to get back into protected space were not far. And, they prioritized their VDV...

The speed of the Russian withdrawal was an obvious factor mitigating against a Ukrainian kesselschlacht. (Gotta love the German combat vocabulary. :)  )  It was good to see some Russian units divested themselves of EVERYTHING. Referencing the swimmers.

About the need to consolidate and rest before going back into battle, I'd think just a few days in Belarus, a day to travel to a border location near east Ukraine, meet there with new supplies/equipment which used their delay in Belarus to get shipped to that rendezvous, and then a few days to get sorted with it. That's ~7-10 days before you'll see them back in combat, by my estimation. VDV maybe sooner. 

As Kinophile posted (among others), the Donbas represents a different problem for Ukraine. Hopefully, their offensive systems are up to challenge.

Putin/Russia will not withdraw voluntarily. They'll have to be pried out and destroyed and whatever remnants sent back over the pre-2014 borders. Luhansk/Donetsk will be another problem. Crimea, even greater.

This war will not end in just a few months. Until Russia is economically devastated as a consequence of Putin's aggression, this will just occur again after Russia re-arms. And, Putin will need to be tossed out. His pride is such that he will not admit defeat. (<- total armchair psychology).

I think you are overestimating what the unit withdrawn from Kyiv have left, by quite a lot. There are multiple reports of units more or less mutinying when ordered back into the fight in the Donbas. The Russian troops are murderous **^&$$&*, but they are  NOT brave or motivated murderous &%&$%&. The ones who faced Ukrainian ATGMs and artillery in combat are exhibiting ZERO motivation to do that again. An additional issue is that the troops withdrawn from the Kyiv area have already had an opportunity to loot one of the richest areas in Ukraine. That is not a description that can be applied to the Donbas/Mariupol front. So they don't even have that incentive. I really think that if the Russians try to shove those units back in without several weeks of refitting they are at great risk of them just collapsing utterly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think you are overestimating what the unit withdrawn from Kyiv have left, by quite a lot. There are multiple reports of units more or less mutinying when ordered back into the fight in the Donbas. The Russian troops are murderous **^&$$&*, but they are  NOT brave or motivated murderous &%&$%&. The ones who faced Ukrainian ATGMs and artillery in combat are exhibiting ZERO motivation to do that again. An additional issue is that the troops withdrawn from the Kyiv area have already had an opportunity to loot one of the richest areas in Ukraine. That is not a description that can be applied to the Donbas/Mariupol front. So they don't even have that incentive. I really think that if the Russians try to shove those units back in without several weeks of refitting they are at great risk of them just collapsing utterly.

What I don't get is why the Russians don't leave those units near Kiev in order to fix as many Ukrainian units as possible. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Now we have a name of captured pilot of Su-35S

Mayor Sergey Yermalov, 159th Fighter Aviation Regiment, Besovets airfield, Karelia, 105th Mixed Aviation Division, 6th AF and AD Army, Western Military District

Had 40 sorties in Syria and 15 in Ukraine. Last two missions were search&destroy UKR AD assets

277585801_7485416331498598_3725340699913208188_n.jpg.webp

Now it´s time for Finland, to take back Karelia. When all Russian assets are in captivety in Ukraine!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

What I don't get is why the Russians don't leave those units near Kiev in order to fix as many Ukrainian units as possible. 

My guess would be the threat of encirclement by Ukrainian forces in some areas and an unreliability in their ability to bring supplies through Belarus.  That axis of advance requires solid support from Belarus and if the rail lines are being sabotaged along with the political stresses being experienced by the Belarussian government, then it's probably better to pull out.  Especially if it's obvious that taking Kiev has become unlikely with the forces involved. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What I don't get is why the Russians don't leave those units near Kiev in order to fix as many Ukrainian units as possible. 

It is better for the Russians to leave some units in Belarus rather than keep them inside Ukrania. They can fix some Ukranian troops with no danger of casualties. 

Edited by Fernando
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...