How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Not a huge amount of detail, but certainly on topic:

 

[sross112]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

The one aspect we can't evaluate is just how long can Russia keep going with the meat assaults.  They already have shortages in the labor market that are contributing to an economy in overdrive in terms of inflation etc. The war and the Russian economy are tied together as a machine that does have limits.  We have no way of really knowing how close or not we are to a critical failure in the system.  Putin recently talked about reducing exports to punish the West, a pretty stupid idea that will just place even more stress on the Russian systems.  We've all heard @The_Capt talk about option spaces.  It appears Russia's have gotten severely constrained.

Maybe he is looking around trying to find somewhere to "recruit" a couple hundred thousand soldiers and figures that cutting the mining in half won't tip the economy over? Manpower seems to be their number one problem, so maybe this is his scheme to free up some labor for the front?

[Ultradave]

10 hours ago, Eug85 said:

Not all people in the West sit on military forums and are interested in the war in Ukraine. It is precisely these people that such propaganda is aimed at. A good example is the United States: at the beginning of the war, the influence of Russian propaganda on Americans was minimal. And most Americans supported Ukraine, but there was a part of Americans who did not care. But after two years of Russian propaganda spread through bought American influencers, the number of Americans who have a negative attitude towards aid to Ukraine has increased significantly. This is clear evidence of the effectiveness of propaganda.

Nothing to do with this particular film, but the overall point. My cousin, who is otherwise a quite intelligent guy, is completely taken in by so many of the conspiracy theories floating around, from the stolen election, to US controlled bio-weapons labs in Ukraine, which Russia "must" take control of to <something, something.....> , to the Jan 6th insurrection being a setup by the administration to make Trump look bad and that what we watched LIVE ON TV, didn't actually happen (ok, which is it? Pick one, please)

I can present him with hard evidence and he is unwavering. For just one example, the US assistance on the biological research labs (NOT bio-weapons). I told him he should read the actual treaty that set up the US assistance to better secure them, that had been in place for YEARS without complaints or Russia using it as an excuse. He didn't even believe you could read it (US State Department, on line, pdf file). I won't bother with the election BS, but just to say that his reasoning for EVERYTHING, is that you can't trust any media OR the government or any of its publications or on line information. He gets all of his news from the Epoch Times, which he claims is the only source providing the "real story" 

This is a guy with a couple of degrees and a masters from Oxford too. Pretty smart, but obviously lacking in critical thinking skills, or the desire to look up and evaluate primary source material (kind of what an advanced education is SUPPOSED to teach you. I've given up even discussing any of this with him, and lately he has laid off sending me messages about any of this. Guess he got tired of defending his crazy stories.

Dave

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Sgt Joch said:

There you go again arguing like a woman and digging up long buried arguments. I am not going to renege, defend or even acknowledge any of it. This line of argumentation is way too personal and totally out of line and you know it.

Wow.  How is it personal to have a discussion with someone and point to things they said as part of that discussion?  The fact is that a person (you) felt the need to tell everybody here that we're all wrong about the harm of propaganda from an autocratic state (Russia).  Nobody forced you to make your views known or to defend them in subsequent posts.  Because of that I think it is entirely appropriate to point out that the person stating this position (you) were yourself a victim of propaganda from the same exact source (Russia) concerning the basis of this thread (Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine).  Since when is it improper to point out an inherent contradiction in what someone says?  And how the Hell is that personal and you calling me a woman (ignoring the sexism aspect) not personal?

The fact is that propaganda, whether it be from a state, corporation, or individual, is not something that should be left alone.  It should be pointed to, called out, and challenged.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Nothing to do with this particular film, but the overall point. My cousin, who is otherwise a quite intelligent guy, is completely taken in by so many of the conspiracy theories floating around, from the stolen election, to US controlled bio-weapons labs in Ukraine, which Russia "must" take control of to <something, something.....> , to the Jan 6th insurrection being a setup by the administration to make Trump look bad and that what we watched LIVE ON TV, didn't actually happen (ok, which is it? Pick one, please)

I can present him with hard evidence and he is unwavering. For just one example, the US assistance on the biological research labs (NOT bio-weapons). I told him he should read the actual treaty that set up the US assistance to better secure them, that had been in place for YEARS without complaints or Russia using it as an excuse. He didn't even believe you could read it (US State Department, on line, pdf file). I won't bother with the election BS, but just to say that his reasoning for EVERYTHING, is that you can't trust any media OR the government or any of its publications or on line information. He gets all of his news from the Epoch Times, which he claims is the only source providing the "real story" 

This is a guy with a couple of degrees and a masters from Oxford too. Pretty smart, but obviously lacking in critical thinking skills, or the desire to look up and evaluate primary source material (kind of what an advanced education is SUPPOSED to teach you. I've given up even discussing any of this with him, and lately he has laid off sending me messages about any of this. Guess he got tired of defending his crazy stories.

Dave

Sadly, this is a very common thing, though the reasons for it in any one individual vary pretty widely.  One observation I've made is that this sort of thing tends to get worse as the person ages.  However, I believe it is rare that it comes out of nowhere.  Head trauma being one of those exceptions (TBI can fundamentally alter a personality).  So I bet if you think back hard enough you'd come up with specific examples that indicate this has been going on for a very long time. 

Steve

[sburke]

38 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Maybe he is looking around trying to find somewhere to "recruit" a couple hundred thousand soldiers and figures that cutting the mining in half won't tip the economy over? Manpower seems to be their number one problem, so maybe this is his scheme to free up some labor for the front?

heh I doubt that they even thought that far.  More just a knee jerk reaction to find a way to threaten... something.  Even if they think they thought this through and the purpose was more meat it means shutting those mines for a generation as those bodies get thrown in the grinder.  Granted Putin doesn't seem to care about long term consequences to Russia anymore.  He's got the tiger by the tail and he ain't letting go.

Edited Monday at 10:36 PM by sburke

[Sequoia]

33 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

This is a guy with a couple of degrees and a masters from Oxford too. Pretty smart, but obviously lacking in critical thinking skills, or the desire to look up and evaluate primary source material (kind of what an advanced education is SUPPOSED to teach you. I've given up even discussing any of this with him, and lately he has laid off sending me messages about any of this. Guess he got tired of defending his crazy stories.

Dave

Some people just need to feel they are so smart that they know the "real" truth as compared to mere plebians.

[sburke]

'Ukraine can keep them' — Chechen commander renounces compatriots who surrendered to Kyiv (msn.com)

[Kraft]

In todays "BuT wE dIdNt SeE aNy WaR cRiMeS!" --- russian forces executed a cuffed PoW in Novohrodivka, in the middle of the street.

 

With a massive sword through his chest.

 

Also, the placement of the piece of rock below his spine leads me to believe they broke it first before killing him.

Edited Monday at 11:27 PM by Kraft

[sburke]

Over 140 Fires Engulf Russian Region Bordering Ukraine: 'Apocalyptic' (msn.com)

[Sgt Joch]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wow.  How is it personal to have a discussion with someone and point to things they said as part of that discussion?  The fact is that a person (you) felt the need to tell everybody here that we're all wrong about the harm of propaganda from an autocratic state (Russia).  Nobody forced you to make your views known or to defend them in subsequent posts.  Because of that I think it is entirely appropriate to point out that the person stating this position (you) were yourself a victim of propaganda from the same exact source (Russia) concerning the basis of this thread (Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine).  Since when is it improper to point out an inherent contradiction in what someone says?  And how the Hell is that personal and you calling me a woman (ignoring the sexism aspect) not personal?

The fact is that propaganda, whether it be from a state, corporation, or individual, is not something that should be left alone.  It should be pointed to, called out, and challenged.

Steve

Steve, you divulged discussions that were done on the Beta forum and governed by an NDA. They were never meant for public discussion and you have completely distorted them. I am sending you a PM with more particulars and I expect you to act on it immediately or there will be legal repercussions. Now cease this discussion immediately.

[chuckdyke]

Out the soda and popcorn. 

[Kraft]

 

 

[billbindc]

38 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Steve, you divulged discussions that were done on the Beta forum and governed by an NDA. They were never meant for public discussion and you have completely distorted them. I am sending you a PM with more particulars and I expect you to act on it immediately or there will be legal repercussions. Now cease this discussion immediately.

Folks will literally go to court...or slur women in toto...to avoid admitting to being wrong. Amazing. 

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Sequoia said:

Some people just need to feel they are so smart that they know the "real" truth as compared to mere plebians.

That is an interesting theory, I hadn't really thought of that.  It's maybe a narcissism thing.... I was thinking it's some kind of subconscious fear of something or other, I just couldn't figure it out.  And I grew in a bats--t crazy conspiracy theory household (hence my great skepticism and scathing opinion of this kind of stuff)

18 minutes ago, Kraft said:

 

 

meanwhile, what does this mean, I wonder??  Very interesting.  Why would those folks need to evacuate and was this a local decision or higher up?  What is going on there??  

[acrashb]

More on drone carriers:

I believe China pioneered the concept:

 

And imagine if each of these drones carried a few grams of explosives:

Drones, and targets.

A previous post linking an interview with a UA tank commander said it was a war of drones, artillery, and infantry.

An of course the fully-illuminated battlefield brought on the the C4ISR evolution.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

21 hours ago, MikeyD said:

China increased retirement age from 60 to 63. America should take note because our Social Security full retirement age is now up to... 67?

What is the life expectancy in China? Same, lower or higher than ours? Interesting topic, related more directly here in how devastatingly bad Russia’s population situation is.

Don’t forget China’s demographic pyramid is getting worse fast, with the ratio of old folks supported by working age people getting worse and worse. USA is doing much better than most or all Western nations and China as well iirc because immigration has been offsetting the universal decline in birth rate all nations have been experiencing as their standard of living increases. Life expectancy increases only worsen that ratio. Japan’s ratio is terrible, and driving their major investments in humanoid robotics that may care for their aging population. But Russia…just bad news all the way around.
 

In general the USA’s long cultural history supporting immigration (period, folks) has set it apart from most nations, to its economic advantage. The controversies and the level of refugee immigration legal and otherwise are changing the culture, but for the time being the USA has a far heathier percentage of younger, working people regardless of status than its competitors. Whether they are allies or not.

[ArmouredTopHat]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Not a huge amount of detail, but certainly on topic:

 

Great find, very insightful overall as well.

This is probably one of the harsher interviews when it comes to tanks by an AFU tanker, though I would note they still seem to think there is a role to them, just that it is much more secondary which is of course I think pretty close to the reality. AFU have certainly been using their tanks pretty sensibly overall, and its a testament to that given that it seems a lot of the tankers interviewed that I find either joined up in 2022 or were in the service prior. I hear of tankers dying very infrequently. (I imagine the average experience for the Russian tankers is quite different given how many get evaporated in comparison) 

Most importantly, Victor does conclude that tanks will still be around even for the future in his view despite the difficulties, though I think I would be inclined to agree with him that FPV drones have probably changed the game entirely compared to previous threats. Certainly overhaul of design approach for MBTs are required for fully effective use. 

Edited Tuesday at 03:17 AM by ArmouredTopHat

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Sgt Joch said:

Steve, you divulged discussions that were done on the Beta forum and governed by an NDA. They were never meant for public discussion and you have completely distorted them. I am sending you a PM with more particulars and I expect you to act on it immediately or there will be legal repercussions. Now cease this discussion immediately.

Wow.  I have no problem dropping this.  But not because you threatened me with legal action, but because obviously this is upsetting you way too much to be healthy.

Steve

[Ts4EVER]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I believe very firmly that Ukraine made the right move given all circumstances considered at the time the decision was made.  How it will turn out, however, is yet to be seen.

Maybe it's because I am German, but I see the maps of this offensive and think "Battle of the Bulge". With hindsight we can all see that stripping the rest of the fronts and launching that attack in 44 was pointless at best, probably shortened the war. So to me historical precedent suggests the same for this Kursk offensive, especially since Ukraine is in a similar position of fighting a numerically and materially superior enemy.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Maybe it's because I am German, but I see the maps of this offensive and think "Battle of the Bulge". With hindsight we can all see that stripping the rest of the fronts and launching that attack in 44 was pointless at best, probably shortened the war. So to me historical precedent suggests the same for this Kursk offensive, especially since Ukraine is in a similar position of fighting a numerically and materially superior enemy.

It's not bad to think that way, but context is everything.  When Germany did this in 1944 the Allies were not on the ropes themselves, Russia in this war is. 

The other difference is that Germany set objectives for itself that were totally unachievable.  Getting to Antwerp AND forcing all Allied forces (including the Soviets) to negotiate a favorable set of surrender terms with The Third Reich?  Yeah, no.  That was never going to happen.  Therefore, the entire premise and reason for Wacht Am Rhein was pointless. 

There is no indications that Ukraine had anything but reasonable goals in mind for this operation.  It is also possible that they achieved MORE than they expected in some ways, even if they might have come up short in others.  The thing is we don't know because we don't know what the goals were.  But I doubt they were in the same league of delusion as Wacht Am Rhein.

Steve

[alison]

5 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Nothing to do with this particular film, but the overall point. My cousin, who is otherwise a quite intelligent guy, is completely taken in by so many of the conspiracy theories floating around, from the stolen election, to US controlled bio-weapons labs in Ukraine, which Russia "must" take control of to <something, something.....> , to the Jan 6th insurrection being a setup by the administration to make Trump look bad and that what we watched LIVE ON TV, didn't actually happen (ok, which is it? Pick one, please)

I can present him with hard evidence and he is unwavering. For just one example, the US assistance on the biological research labs (NOT bio-weapons). I told him he should read the actual treaty that set up the US assistance to better secure them, that had been in place for YEARS without complaints or Russia using it as an excuse. He didn't even believe you could read it (US State Department, on line, pdf file). I won't bother with the election BS, but just to say that his reasoning for EVERYTHING, is that you can't trust any media OR the government or any of its publications or on line information. He gets all of his news from the Epoch Times, which he claims is the only source providing the "real story" 

This is a guy with a couple of degrees and a masters from Oxford too. Pretty smart, but obviously lacking in critical thinking skills, or the desire to look up and evaluate primary source material (kind of what an advanced education is SUPPOSED to teach you. I've given up even discussing any of this with him, and lately he has laid off sending me messages about any of this. Guess he got tired of defending his crazy stories.

This story can be told over and over, about people of all ages and all backgrounds. When I was younger some of my friends went off the deep end, and I thought back then it must be because of drug abuse or serious mental illness that had only surfaced for the first time in their early adulthood. Old people, of course, were losing their marbles anyway so it was only to be expected from them. But now I am well on the way to being an old person myself, I have seen people who were - and still are - accomplished professionals in their fields start believing nonsense that is demonstrably false... And yet they still believe.

It seems impossible that otherwise smart people could have such blind spots - how can you make sense of the world around you if on certain arbitrary topics you abandon critical thinking? It's nothing but faith, religion by any other name. Like religion, the faith is reinforced by the stories constructed around it and the community that tells those stories. But unlike religion, the believers do not understand their faith as a voluntarily decision to abandon critical thinking in one area for the purpose of spiritual nourishment. They mistake their personal confidence for objective truth.

I think most of us read 1984 or Brave New World in school and thought "what a laugh, could never be us!" But it always was us. Of course people in authoritarian countries read those books too, as does the leadership, and the propaganda adapts. How do you know your democratic leaders aren't lying to you as well? Look at all these instances of corruption! The mainstream media is lying to you! Look at all these stories they got wrong! Your education system is captured by a fifth column that is brainwashing your children! Look at all these kids saying ignorant stuff! You see, we're not fascists, they're fascists! Everywhere is equally bad! You can't trust anyone! (But, please, trust us.)

As you say, it's not worth trying to debate when people are that far gone, because they are not playing by the same rules.

It's very challenging to combat the propaganda systems that attempt to seed this kind of distrust in a free country. If you deplatform the pushers you are accused of censorship. If you try to educate the populace you are accused of brainwashing. It's hard to find the right balance. The worst part is even if you do manage to stamp out malicious external actors, the horse might have already bolted. At a certain point "innocent" people may start to independently construct and propagate their own harmful conspiracies, and now you have a homegrown problem. In some ways you can understand why savvy authoritarians like the CCP crack down so hard on seemingly innocuous viral content coming from inside their own country - who knows what the latest fitness/wellness trend could turn into? They know what the last one turned into - The Epoch Times!

[Fenris]

Watched Perun's latest vid that mentions these in detail.  Active BDM-4 engaged and hit by FPVs.  Follow up posts say Obukhovka, Kursk.

 

[Carolus]

Quote

Documents were leaked from the Kremlin

This exposed the company's support for far-right parties in the EU elections and the spread of disinformation against Ukraine.

In a video for internal use, Ilya Gambashidze, head of Russia's secret propaganda project, wearing a hoodie with the words "Russian Ideological Troops" on it, brags about the effectiveness of the work.

This propagandist heads the organization "Social Design Agency". It carries out orders from the Kremlin directly.

According to the published documents, "ideologues", "commentators" and "bot farm operators" work in the agency.

As of early 2024, the “social design agency” has reportedly created 33.9 million comments, 4,641 original videos, and 2,516 memes to influence narratives online.

Creating memes and cartoons is done by specific individual employees.

The average tweet of a "geopolitical commentator" has 31.4 thousand followers.

The cartoons they post are prepared by the Kremlin. The documents reveal tens of thousands of posts from "commentators" on all social media platforms.

Russians influenced European and American elections. The draft document states: "Further sanctions policy and support for Ukraine will largely depend on the results of these campaigns."

Moscow believed that the success of the far-right group "Identity and Democracy" would serve its interests. Russia began promoting anti-globalism, anti-LGBT narratives and exploiting economic problems.

Among the performance evaluation methods, there is even an analysis of poll statistics of the Alternative for Germany party and the French National Association (Le Pen, etc.).

There are instructions for commenters, which include writing comments by a 38-year-old German woman, 400 characters long (who claims that Germany is a haven for criminals from other countries). Similar instructions are directed at the USA, France and Poland to inflame anti-migrant sentiments.

After the EU elections, Russians were satisfied with the results of the right-wing candidates, calling it a "serious success."

However, they noted that such success does not always guarantee benefits for the Russian Federation, citing Georgia Maloney's support for Ukraine as an example.

Ukraine is the main target. The released documents, labeled "fakes," show how the Russians posted fake evidence and statements by Ukrainian officials on social media.

For example, documents and quotes about the IL-76 plane crash in Belgorod in January 2024 were fabricated.

"Our specialists fabricated a story about child abduction. The Americans seriously publicized it," wrote a Russian official. The Russians use "useful idiots" and cover their tracks, knowing that the West does not trust their news.

The Americans discovered that the Russian Social Design Agency monitors 2,800 influential people from 81 countries, calling them "leaders of public opinion."

However, the name "useful idiots" is more suitable for them, since their voices are amplified by the Kremlin, often "in the dark".

In addition to these people, the Russians track voices about Ukraine.

This leak confirms what we see every day: armies of Russian bots and paid trolls are fueling conflict and spreading the opinions of "useful idiots" blindly pushing narratives created by Kremlin propagandists.

But the world already sees everything

https://t.me/drive_Ernesta/156

And as it happens, a little bit on the information front from a (current?) Ukrainian MoD spokesperson Mashovets linked to on telegram. 

I would like to see these leaked documents, but all he says frankly lines up with what I read elsewhere.

[Carolus]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

What is the life expectancy in China? Same, lower or higher than ours? Interesting topic, related more directly here in how devastatingly bad Russia’s population situation is.

The life expectancy in China has been rising, but is still slightly below those of Western countries.

The interesting part is that this change concerns the people in China who are part of the retirement system. There is a three digit number of millions of people who are not. Migratory workers who often live on the construction site they are currently employed at before moving on to the next work opportunity. These people have no savings, live basically hand to mouth (except for what they sent home to the countryside to the rest of the family they left behind) and are more or less completely outside any state welfare system. They have, in large parts, built the Chinese infrastructure over the last decades, and are now in their mid-50s, approaching 60s. 

That is a group the size of North America which will retire with little more than the clothes they currently wear. And which the Chinese state expects to pay exactly zero yuan to.

Edited Tuesday at 06:21 AM by Carolus