How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

 As an ex tanker these positions look something that Irak would do in the gulf wars. Not what a skilled army would do.

Yes, prepared positions are a big part of defensive tank warfare but you need multiple positions for one tank and you do not keep your tanks on the line by default. You drive to the fighting positions from hide/safe positions when needed (when under attack) and switch between your tanks allocated positions every couple of shots. Normally there are only couple of tanks in the company fighting positions keeping guard.

 

[LukeFF]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

Holien,

Definitely don't appreciate that label, and as my post should've made abundantly clear, am absolutely no fan of Putin.  It's readily demonstrable that both warring sides are lying, making determining the truth that much more difficult. Ukraine has been several times caught now using ARMA video to depict Russian air attacks, and Russia has made up all sorts of stuff, repurposed video, etc. In checking to see what I could turn up pro or con on some of the issues raised by you, I found this, which cites a range of sources, some unambiguously Left (The Nation), that paints quite the picture of things not being at all like what we've been told. Among sources quoted are The Economist, Deutsche Welle, and Al Jazeera. One bombshell in this article is that the CIA had training teams working with Ukrainian Far Rght forces, including Azov, starting in 2015, for  ops against the Separatists. The article talks about warnings given (posted to Telegram) of provocations (aka false flags) that would be done by Azov in Mariupol. It also talks about the lack of evidence, as described in The Economist, ref the bombing of the Mariupol Theater and notes reports to the Russians from fleeing refugees that Azov blew it up. A few days ago, there was at least one report by Ukrainian villagers that a Ukrainian tank rolled in and shot up their village, much to the consternation of the locals. I don't have specifics yet on this, but I now find myself wondering whether this might've been Azov at work. Believe this article will give you and others here much to think about as to what's really going on, who's involved and why. But my basic test is this: Who benefits and how? The below article is more than enough to convince me we're not even close to having the full story. And I would like to point out that before the invasion there was a ton of press coverage of Nazis in Ukraine, a topic that vanished as soon as Russia invaded, yet it is precisely one of Putin's stated objectives to de-Nazify Ukraine, which assuredly must mean that part of that declared mission has to consist of wiping out Azoz and other Far Right paramilitaries. From what I've seen to date, Azov seems to be doing quite well.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/neo-nazis-in-ukraine-fake-incidents-to-gain-more-western-support.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0278807100f1200d

Regards,

John Kettler

John, just stop it already. You've more than earned the right to be called out on your citing of dubious sources that are full of BS. If you don't appreciate the label, then slow down, step away from the keyboard, and CRITICALLY THINK about the information being presented.

And, you want to know why you can't be taken seriously? Let's take a look at that page you just linked to, called "Moon of Alabama." At the top of the page it says it's the recipient of the "Serena Shim Award for Uncompromised Integrity in Journalism." Okay, so what's this all about? Hmm...

...oh yeah, look another dubious news source:

https://www.google.com/search?q=serena+shim+award&oq=serena+shim+award&aqs=chrome..69i57.3701j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

It looks like this illustrious Serena Shim Award is given to pro-Assad content creators and was created by a pro-Assad group in 2019. You do know about Assad, right? Surely you know about what he's done through the years, Mr. Threat Analyst?

But hey, don't take my word for it - Bellingcat wrote a whole article about this dubious group:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2019/09/30/pro-assad-lobby-group-rewards-bloggers-on-both-the-left-and-the-right/

Quote

While obscure, and not to be confused with the “AIPAC” that supports the state of Israel, the association behind this latest journalism award made headlines for their generosity just last year, when former Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich disclosed that he’d been paid $20,000 to speak at a 2017 pro-Assad conference in the United Kingdom. Kucinich was running for governor at the time of the admission, which helped cost him the race.

Quote

The award, and the money that comes with it, was also given to several websites and blogs that routinely promote pro-Assad conspiracy theories, including Information Clearing House — an anti-Semitic website that has published columns arguing mass shootings are “false flag” attacks; Moon of Alabama, which maintains that the Zika virus was framed for birth defects actually caused by pesticides; Black Agenda Report, which argues the revolution in Sudan was a regime-change operation; and SouthFront — in a video, the site says the Serena Shim Award will aid its “struggle against the neoliberal globalist dystopia” (CORRECTION: Paul Antonopoulos was previously incorrectly identified as the founder of SouthFront in this piece — he is, in fact, the managing editor of Fort Russ News. Bellingcat apologizes for this error). 

John, John, John, once again you've shown that the websites you quote from frankly suck.

Edited March 26, 2022 by LukeFF

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 As an ex tanker these positions look something that Irak would do in the gulf wars. Not what a skilled army would do.

Yes, prepared positions are a big part of defensive tank warfare but you need multiple positions for one tank and you do not keep your tanks on the line by default. You drive to the fighting positions from hide/safe positions when needed (when under attack) and switch between your tanks allocated positions every couple of shots. Normally there are only couple of tanks in the company fighting positions keeping guard.

 

I mean it would seem like taking this approach just fixes them in position for the inevitable drone + artillery strike ?

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 As an ex tanker these positions look something that Irak would do in the gulf wars. Not what a skilled army would do.

Yes, prepared positions are a big part of defensive tank warfare but you need multiple positions for one tank and you do not keep your tanks on the line by default. You drive to the fighting positions from hide/safe positions when needed (when under attack) and switch between your tanks allocated positions every couple of shots. Normally there are only couple of tanks in the company fighting positions keeping guard.

 

Well the fact that these aerial shots are online for the entire planet to see, I would call that a problem.  I am assuming this was a drone shot.  This might work better when there are leaves on those trees but those tracks are a give away.  Plus you can just hammer the treeline and then missile anything that is left...and we are back to ISR "eep!" moments. 

Edited March 26, 2022 by The_Capt

[BFCElvis]

22 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

John Kettler

Check your private messages on the forum and your email inbox.

[The_MonkeyKing]

49 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I mean it would seem like taking this approach just fixes them in position for the inevitable drone + artillery strike ?

Yes this too. That is why you don't keep the tanks in the battle positions all the time. And this is why you have lots of "spare" positions. The hide positions should be such that the tanks cannot be spotted from the air or are protected. In these photos drive the tank inside houses or garages for example. Also crews are not inside tanks 24/7, in relaxed defensive posture actually very little time is spend inside the tanks. 

I would say it is worse to be like this in these "holes" than to be without and conduct maneuver defense between unprepared fighting positions. If there is time for only one prepared positions then have one prepared positions and the rest are not.

In modern warfare you can only really shoot once or twice from any one positions. If you don't move you are dead. Spotting is so goods and systems so deadly. This is exactly the same for infantry, can you just have your head out from one positions and keep on shooting?

Every positions should also have room to have separate observation position, meaning only the tanks sight is visible. Turret cannot be exposed any longer than you are actively firing.

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[akd]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well the fact that these aerial shots are online for the entire planet to see, I would call that a problem.  I am assuming this was a drone shot. 

Maxar commercial satellite imagery.

Edited March 26, 2022 by akd

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well the fact that these aerial shots are online for the entire planet to see, I would call that a problem.  I am assuming this was a drone shot.  This might work better when there are leaves on those trees but those tracks are a give away.  Plus you can just hammer the treeline and then missile anything that is left...and we are back to ISR "eep!" moments. 

In Finnish defense forces this frontage would be allocated to one platoon (this is very crowded for a company). At least 3 fighting positions for each tank with safe passage between them. And also safe locations for the tanks when not needed at battle positions.

The safe locations would be such that they could not be seen from the air. Finland camouflage net + dense forest. But here probably inside houses.

[akd]

Chechens being Chechens in Mariupol.  Note how there are zero sounds of incoming fire during their displays:

T-72B3Ms in central Mariupol:

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by akd

[TheVulture]

 

 

[John Kettler]

[content deleted by Moderator.  Poster banned for life for repeated and willful violations of Forum policy and warnings, including specific ones issued earlier today]

[db_zero]

28 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Yes this too. That is why you don't keep the tanks in the battle positions all the time. And this is why you have lots of "spare" positions. The hide positions should be such that the tanks cannot be spotted from the air or are protected. In these photos drive the tank inside houses or garages for example. Also crews are not inside tanks 24/7, in relaxed defensive posture actually very little time is spend inside the tanks. 

In modern warfare you can only really shoot once or twice from any one positions. If you don't move you are dead. Spotting is so goods and systems so deadly. This is exactly the same for infantry, can you just have your head out from one positions and keep on shooting?

Every positions should also have room to have separate observation position, meaning only the tanks sight is visible. Turret cannot be exposed any longer than you are actively firing.

 

Been told the covering over the turbine engine is perfect for grilling steaks.

I was a bit surprised when I saw an M1 at a fairly close distance and for some reason I expected it to be much larger.

I only really know about the M1 from playing steel beasts and I was surprised you can burn out the laser- at least that’s the way it’s modeled.

I also find the Leopard2 kinda weird the way the gun elevates after firing iirc.

The T-72s are sorta of challenge to get the hang of using the main gun…

[MikeyD]

RonPaul forum? Snicker snicker.

[The_Capt]

38 minutes ago, akd said:

Maxar commercial satellite imagery.

Daaamn, that is impressive and worse.  Not much you can do with that.  Is it just me or is hiding on the modern battlefield getting really hard?

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Russian Mi-24/35 series helicopter hit on the ground with something. UKR UAV Leleka-100 is filming. On the control display the logo DeViRO company is seen - the designer of Leleka

Upd. Our sources have written already this is not Mi-8, but Mi-24/35 helicopter in Kharkiv oblast. Probably it made emergancy landing.

 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Daaamn, that is impressive and worse.  Not much you can do with that.  Is it just me or is hiding on the modern battlefield getting really hard?

As I know Maxar doesn't issue these images in real time. You can pay and get maximum 1-2 days ago shots.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bearstronaut]

25 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Baneman,

Crisis actors are very much real, and there are both legitimate and illegitimate applications for them. Legitimate applications are such things as being made up as simulated casualties, playing villagers in training exercises and the like. 
But the other side of the coin is this sort of thing. CrisCast, the firm at the link I just provided, works for governments, organizations and companies worldwide. It even has people with security clearances for sensitive defense work. The illegitimate crisis actors are used to cynically and deliberately stampede the public into a desired course of action. For those, please see below.

https://truth11.com/2022/02/27/crisis-actors-everywhere/

Here, we have a crisis actor who takes a selfie with the crew before going on the air to portray a traumatized eyewitness.



You may also wish to consider this, a firm hiring 20 crisis actors in 2014, saying it was going to be a good year for them! And what did they want? People with solid acting experience but with NO SPEAKING ROLES in film, TV or commercials. Simple logic screams that they want people who can sell a performance but who won't be recognized by their voices, since that would reveal what's really going on. 

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?448917-Crisis-Actors-wanted-Craigslist-ad

And on Reddit 8 years back, there were apparently multiple experienced crisis actors looking for work. The rest of their ads are in the comments ti the below OP.
 

Crisis actors are very much real and can be used for good or ill. But know this. What's been used in a civilian context to move people on a certain path via galvanized emotions is assuredly being used to market war. I mentioned earlier the PR firm Hill & Knowlton's coup that had a lot to do with creating outrage as a way of  getting the US public to support invading Iraq. Turned out the anguished Kuwaiti woman was in fact a member of the ruling al Sabah family (daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador) and that the whole thing was a deliberate incitement of the American public through a cunningly conceived highly effective deception. In case you think I made that up, here's the story of what happened, how, why, and what the impact was.

https://citizentruth.org/fake-news-1990-that-ignited-gulf-war-sympathy/

This is by no means the only such thing I could've used to make my point, but it happens to be a convenient and dead on target recent example of "Wag The Dog" techniques being used in the real world.

Regards,

John Kettler
 

Man, you just believe everything you read on the internet don’t you?

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

As I know Maxar doesn't issue these images in real time. You can pay and get maximum 1-2 days ago shots.

Ya I kinda figured, my point being that live feeds likely have better resolution and probably multi-spectral.  Back to my main question, how does one hide on the modern battlefield?  These, plus UAVs, SIGINT, ELINT, HUMINT, SOCMINT, ground based sensor and the human eyeball make hiding anything big really hard.  We have been talking about tanks and I am starting to wonder if their biggest vulnerability is just being spotted easily.

To blind an opponent you basically have to create a "dark box" from surface to satellite and then isolate it peer to peer.  Then of course you have a highly visible dark box that signals something on its own.  In the old days you just had tight radio discipline and cam nets, not sure if that is going to do it.  This is not something we have been thinking a lot about for the last 30 years to be honest.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Daaamn, that is impressive and worse.  Not much you can do with that.  Is it just me or is hiding on the modern battlefield getting really hard?

There is no such thing anymore, outside of infantry in built up areas. The Pentagon probably knows the location of most of the Russian vehicles in Ukraine to the centimeter. They can probably integrate that with signals intelligence, which would be why being a Russian General is so unhealthy.

[BeondTheGrave]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian Mi-8 series helicopter hit on the ground with something. UKR UAV Leleka-100 is filming. On the control display the logo DeViRO company is seen - the designer of Leleka

 

 

I retract my comment, but keep the gif. 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[The_Capt]

Just now, dan/california said:

There is no such thing anymore, outside of infantry in built up areas. The Pentagon probably knows the location of most of the Russian vehicles in Ukraine to the centimeter. They can probably integrate that with signals intelligence, which would be why being a Russian General is so unhealthy.

I can remember about 20 years ago people talking about the totally illuminated battlefield, we all rolled our eyes and then spent 20 years hunting a##holes in the sand.  Time to find the facepaint.

Didn't the US admit to pushing ISR to the UA?  Or is that a rumor?  I would put money on the bar it is happening.

[Phantom Captain]

4 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I almost wonder if that was some APFSDS. You see the impact point and then a long rooster tail as the round passes through and the debris it carries with it impact the ground. 

I mean it could also be some kind of ATGM doing a nice little through and through, but that velocity!

 

I think it's a HEAT round.  It's the plasma jet going through a thin skinned vehicle that you see going out the other side.  The shot comes from the lower left, and close!

Edited March 26, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

Chechens being Chechens in Mariupol.  Note how there are zero sounds of incoming fire during their displays:

The previous video of them unloading a few thousand rounds at the corner of a high rise building got me thinking about how poor their fire discipline was. 

Still, it seems that both east and west pushes into Mariupol are making progress.  By the looks of it the Chechens now make up a significant part of the eastern push.

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Ya I kinda figured, my point being that live feeds likely have better resolution and probably multi-spectral.  Back to my main question, how does one hide on the modern battlefield?  These, plus UAVs, SIGINT, ELINT, HUMINT, SOCMINT, ground based sensor and the human eyeball make hiding anything big really hard.  We have been talking about tanks and I am starting to wonder if their biggest vulnerability is just being spotted easily.

To blind an opponent you basically have to create a "dark box" from surface to satellite and then isolate it peer to peer.  Then of course you have a highly visible dark box that signals something on its own.  In the old days you just had tight radio discipline and cam nets, not sure if that is going to do it.  This is not something we have been thinking a lot about for the last 30 years to be honest.

I've been thinking a lot about the old '70s army maxim (maybe it dates to earlier?) "Concentrate to fight, disperse to live." I am getting an increasingly strong feeling that Russia has not fought flexibly and has tried, in classic Soviet fashion, to pound forward with a maximum amount of force along the leading edge. But, correct me if I'm wrong, highly dispersed units would be much easier to hide no? Less distinctive radio transmissions, fewer positions within the aperture of a drone lens (but what can you do against a satellite? Nothing problem, outside of shooting it down.) And of course this then invites roving AT teams or drone launched not-Hellfires to come and introduce themselves, violently. A drone can always cover x amount of terrain, but missiles can only fly so far. If they hit 1st platoon and 2nd platoon is out of the way, perhaps still undetected, thats better than watch all of A Coy go under, right? 

I wonder if a potential solution to this is just a much more fluid battlefield, much more rapid movements (even if it creates a sort of 'frontless' sea-saw) and an increasingly shorter OODA loop. 

Just thinking outloud here, not something I have a strong answer to. But a though I've been having. 

[fry30]

John, 

 

having read your last post, I’m sincerely hoping for a vacation coming your way soon.

 

the crisis actor “application” regarding the Boston bombing (for those of you who understand Reddit, read the section it was posted to) is the final straw for me. 

 

You truly are acting like a buffoon.