How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

The Russians marched as liberators, they did not intend to shoot civilians. However, the idiotic behavior of some Ukrainians, who, dressed in civilian clothes, attacked Russian convoys and killed Russian soldiers, forced the Russians to be overly suspicious and aggressive.

I predict we will see someone booted off this forum shortly.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

This is meaningless.  "Produce or refurbish" can not be lumped together because refurbished shells requires a stockpile.  Stockpiles eventually run out, which means whatever production capacity reliant upon them is limited.  There are indications that stocks are already low.

There's a big difference between 10% of Russia's production being refurbishment and 60%.  So any analysis needs to make a distinction between the two and also identify how many shells Russia has that can be refurbished.  Having the ability to refurbish 10,000 shells a month sounds impressive unless you also hear they only have 40,000 shells to refurbish.  That sort of thing.

Steve

[chris talpas]

For an entertaining and informative diversion on a very timely and relevant topic I give you the latest drop from Perun

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

23 hours ago, ZellZeka said:

The Russians marched as liberators, they did not intend to shoot civilians.

Yeah, except they did.  And they've demonstrated that repeatedly since this war started.  The people in Bucha that were famously dumped in the street were targeted because they were AFU veterans and/or members of the territorial defense forces.  We know, for a fact, that Russia ordered such people to be murdered outright.  In fact, the US released this information to the world BEFORE the invasion started.  Google "Russia, Kill Lists" or just read this one article to see what I mean:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60472889

Add to this the plethora of examples of Russian individual and small unit actions of murder, rape, torture, and other things.  Russian forces were never told they couldn't do this and were never punished when they did.  In fact, the Russian unit responsible for the atrocities in Bucha was honored by Putin:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/europe/russia-bucha-brigade-honorary-title-putin-intl/index.html

 

OK, with that bit of ignorance straightened out, let me address ZellZeka's troublesome posting so we can move on with him or without him.  Because we will move on from this.

My interpretation of his comments is that the West underestimates the impact of Russia winning in Ukraine.  Russian influence has been, and continues to be, a major problem for the West any "victory" by Russia will (at best) continue it well into the future and directly lead to the breaking up of NATO and perhaps the EU.  Therefore, Russia needs to be stopped now by any means necessary.

While nobody here wants to see anything other than the defeat of Russia, and by extension the success of Ukraine, we do not need to have emotional arguments based on fantasy scenarios drummed up by propaganda sources which are playing to emotions rather than facts.

 

The maximum "victory" Russia can hope for is keeping the territory it already has.  There is no military scenario, including a Ukrainian military collapse, that would get the Russians meaningfully past the Dnepr.  It lacks the strength to do anything beyond that and, I would argue, that long term it doesn't even have the strength to do that.

So the thought of Russian forces being along the borders of Slovakia and Hungary is utter nonsense.  Because of that, any argument predicated on this is fantasy and not worthy of discussion.

As for the nuclear threat from Russia, it exists now and will exist indefinitely.  It needs to be taken seriously, but in context of reality.  It has long since been theorized that the west would use other options if Russia used a nuclear weapon.  This was true before this war, it is true now.  In fact, Russia is more exposed to non-nuclear retaliation now than it was prior to this war.  If NATO decided it was time to respond (and a nuke would trigger such a response) the entire Russian force in Ukraine would be neutered.  The remaining BSF would be sunk.  The support facilities in Crimea would be destroyed.  The Kerch bridge (at least the railroad portion) would no longer function.  And all of this would happen within weeks.

Most importantly, Russia knows how weak and vulnerable they are to a NATO counter measure.  They've stripped all of their NATO forcing resources to the bone to keep operations in Ukraine going.  They know better than NATO how easily they would be laid waste, especially now that Ukraine has demonstrated how effective NATO weapons are even in small quantities.

And guess what China would do?  Stand by and let it happen at a minimum.  This is something that China would want avoided in the first place (which I'm sure Xi has informed Putin of) and resolved quickly if it happens.  Russia would be alone.

Anyway, now back to my moderator position.

 

Putting forward ideas that challenge conventions is a good thing.  Having opinions about how this or that factor may or may not play out is also good.  Repeatedly pushing a line of argument that isn't well supported by facts, however, is not.

So, with that we have a very long winded warning that I'm not going to sit by and watch this thread derailed by one person continuing to push an ill informed emotional line of argument.  No good will come from that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

For an entertaining and informative diversion on a very timely and relevant topic I give you the latest drop from Perun

 

 

Awesome!  I have some extra time coming up this week that I now know how to fill

Steve

[danfrodo]

28 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

For an entertaining and informative diversion on a very timely and relevant topic I give you the latest drop from Perun

 

 

Just watched 1st half while on my trusty steed (aka 'nordic track') this morning.  Excellent, as always.  

[omae2]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think he is saying that you really have no idea what you are talking about.  Let’s just throw some facts on this little theory of yours.  Here is Hungary’s trading profile:

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/hun

So your theory is that Hungary is essentially going to walk away from the west and jump in with Russia, who is currently under an enormous sanctions regime that definitely won’t be lifted any time soon.  

“The most common destination for the exports of Hungary are Germany ($35.5B), Italy($8.02B), Romania ($7.94B), Slovakia ($6.78B), and Austria ($6.32B).“

This on paper makes sense but in reality Hungary is start to deviate more to the eastern part of the world. They try to make business with russian corps where ever they can. For example a russian super market coming to my country and gonna build god knows how many market. They will try to undercut the western super markets in price heavily at least that was the news a couple month ago.
Contrary to that Spar which is i think a German or Austrian super market are being pushed out by the government because they didn't let them to buy a certain percentage into to their corp.

Also my government is deliberately provoking the western partners (like not supporting the memory of the sebrenica massacre and such), and im not sure why is that but if i have to pull out an answer from under, i would say because they cannot leave the EU or NATO they can be only kicked out of it. Otherwise people will get very angry. But from their point of view EU and maybe even NATO (although im not sure about that cause our value in the eyes of our eastern partners is based on our position in the western world) is a risk. As you can see above its not just the ideological differences but the greed of my dear government as well that sooner or later will inevitably break this alliance. Unless something happen.

Viktor said that he want to stay in power for 2036. Not as fidesz but as a person. He made his childhood friend one of the richest guy in the country, but most of us are thinking that he just holding the money for him, cause he is a pushover. Also his child amassed ridiculous amount of money as well. If he lose an election its sure that his opponents will be out for that money, and to make an example of him. So i guess all this pro russian government is based on the fat guy fears of held responsible for what he done.

If we are out of the EU and NATO, and in BRICS than he can be assured that eastern military will keep him in power and out of jail if his a good boy.

So im not sure if those data is valid in this context, they don't care about the country only about themself.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, chris talpas said:

For an entertaining and informative diversion on a very timely and relevant topic I give you the latest drop from Perun

 

 

Perun is just really good at what he does!

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson backs Ukraine’s use of Swedish munitions in Russia: "Ukraine has the right to defend itself through combat actions directed at the opponent's territory as long as the combat actions comply with the laws of war.“

 

[FancyCat]

If I'm not mistaken, we have U.S, Germany, Italy who do not approve using their weapons on Russian soil, U.K, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics? have approved their weapons to be used in Russia. 

[FancyCat]

found it, 

Quote

Ukraine’s Baltic allies are its main backers for a shift in NATO’s position. “From the beginning we made the mistake of placing limits on the Ukrainians, because we thought it would be seen as an escalation [of the war],” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on LRT television on May 21. “The Ukrainians must be able to strike on Russian territory, their logistical lines, and troops preparing to attack. There is only one side that is complying with the rules. These rules we imposed on ourselves; we have to abandon them.”

https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-05-25/ukraine-pressures-its-allies-to-allow-it-to-use-nato-weapons-against-russian-territory.html

[FancyCat]

rumors of a drone being downed near the Voronezh-M in Orsk.

Quote

Supposedly, Ukraine tried to strike another Russian early warning Voronezh-type radar, this time in Orenburg. According to the map in the post, it covers territory to the South of the installation, no Ukrainian and very little of Russian land, so nothing that would be relevant in this war.

Today, local publications reported the downing of a drone near the village of Gorkovskoye in the Novoorsky district, not far from Orsk. Near this village is the Voronezh-M radar station, built in 2017.

That said, if the drone came from Ukraine, it had to travel more than 1,500 kilometers and in doing so either fly around part of northern Kazakhstan's territory or violate its airspace.

t. me/milinfolive/122969

https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/1d0zt5x/credibledefense_daily_megathread_may_26_2024/l5r9n9w/

 

[poesel]

21 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If I'm not mistaken, we have U.S, Germany, Italy who do not approve using their weapons on Russian soil, U.K, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics? have approved their weapons to be used in Russia. 

Just to cut short any further discussions about Scholz: Germany will only ever agree to the use of her weapons on Russian soil if all other allies have agreed to it.
Translation: 'all other allies' = USA.

If that will change anything wrt to Taurus, I have no idea.

[Eddy]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

If I'm not mistaken, we have U.S, Germany, Italy who do not approve using their weapons on Russian soil, U.K, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics? have approved their weapons to be used in Russia.

What about the French? Genuine question because I've get a vague feeling they do approve but I can't remember 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, omae2 said:

i would say because they cannot leave the EU or NATO they can be only kicked out of it. Otherwise people will get very angry. 

If we are out of the EU and NATO, and in BRICS than he can be assured that eastern military will keep him in power and out of jail if his a good boy.

 

Trying very, very VERY hard (oh man it was hard today) to not let the forum distract me but this one I can't resist.

Brexit was voluntary, my friend. 100% their own political process (even if 49% actually voted against) instigated by a spineless PM. So 100% of 51% (or thereabouts) decided to leave. No one "forced them". 

Hungary in BRICS, the protected by an "eastern military".... Um which one? RUS? Cos they've stripped their borders to deal with a bunch of Uppity Ukrainians who just don't seem to get the Good News of Modern Russian Imperialism. And would need to overly NATO to "protect" Orban. Never mind the absolutely certain domestic insurgency and rioting.

Cmon Govnor. 

Yer 'Avin a larf! 

Edited May 26 by Kinophile

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Brexit was voluntary, my friend. 100% their own political process (even if 49% actually voted against) instigated by a spineless PM. So 100% of 51% (or thereabouts) decided to leave. No one "forced them". 

Yeah, that caught my eye too. I *think* what he means is that while Orban might /want/ to leave the EU for WarPac 2.0 - or whatevs - politically he can't do that because ... reasons.^ So he's being an obnoxious dick in the hope and expectation that that rest of the EU will get fed up and show him the door.

Or sumfink.

 

^ strongman dictator wannabe isn't so strong after all? Or so dictatory?

Edited May 26 by JonS

[Ultradave]

Just as a general comment about propaganda, I have continually been impressed from page 1 that the overwhelming majority of posts have been well vetted, or if not, along the lines of "I found this, can anyone confirm?" There are people here with vast experience, and not just militarily, who aren't easily fooled by specious claims. Posting the verified facts and then getting some good discussion on what those mean is very good reading.

So basically, good job everyone, and keep it up.  I don't post too much - just mainly about things I really know a lot about, and sometimes do catchup reading, but I do read almost everything, and follow a lot of the links.

Dave

[chuckdyke]

Propaganda is in the West what Taqiyya is in Islam. Permitted lies for a good purpose. The end justifies the means. 

[Fenris]

Quote

Baltic Members of Parliament warned German government representatives that if the Russians manage to achieve a strategic breakthrough in eastern Ukraine because the West is only half-heartedly helping Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland would not wait until Russian troops were deployed on their border, they would send troops into Ukraine themselves.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1794771009041469502

Link to tweet and article from spiegel.de

 

[Carolus]

12 hours ago, poesel said:

Just to cut short any further discussions about Scholz: Germany will only ever agree to the use of her weapons on Russian soil if all other allies have agreed to it.
Translation: 'all other allies' = USA.

If that will change anything wrt to Taurus, I have no idea.

Scholz is partially pinning his re-election on voters from the more pacifist-minded camp of the population. He is trying to dig a bit at the populist parties both far left and far right which push Kremlin narratives in Germany about a peaceful Russia, even at the risk of dismaying part of the voters of his party which support Ukraine strongly. 

It is possible that he is trying to pull another Schröder (whose reeleclation in 2002 was positively influenced due to his public "No" to a German participation to the Iraq War).

Even the army reform plans which should have been published by the German MoD for months now have been postponed to after the EU elections (and thus delaying any parliamentary discussion of it) despite an immense external pressure by the global situation (because it will likely contain some sort of re-introduction of a draft, though it is not clear how it will look - old model, Swedish model etc. and this can be unpopular).

Scholz has been so adamant and explicit in his statements about Taurus deliveries (more so than in the past about other german weapon deliveries) that any change now would be a complete loss of face, especially before the federal elections in Germany.

So, Scholz will go along with other NATO countries (especially USA) if they change their targeting policy. 

But cruise missiles from Germany is a definite no-go for the foreseeable future. 

[panzermartin]

21 hours ago, ZellZeka said:

On the contrary, I argue that not a single NATO country, in the event of a Russian nuclear strike on another NATO member country, will lead to a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia. No one wants to risk a nuclear retaliatory strike from Russia. For example, if Russia strikes Poland, the United States will under no circumstances launch a nuclear strike on Russia. This fact in no way strengthens faith in NATO

On that, I sometimes think about it. That even in the event of russian  nukes, the West won't reply nuclear and risk mutual annihilation. But imo Russia will never strike outside Ukraine. This is their only playground. 

In that (unlikely) scenario, NATO will probably send all their airforce in Ukraine and strike mercilessly russian forces. If they don't and agree to ceasefire to save humanity and accept split of Ukraine then the nuclear drop will stay in history ala Hiroshima and Nagasaki and maybe some "smart" people will say :

"Putin dropped the bomb and with that way he saved 1 million of lives and ended the war" 

[Butschi]

On 5/24/2024 at 8:50 PM, The_Capt said:

And to resurrect the autonomous debate:

Seriously, spend some time on this channel…holy crap this technology is a lot further along then I thought.

I finally managed to watch the video skim through the paper. For me, the really amazing thing is that the training happend completely in simulation but was applicable to a variety of real world environments. I guess more relevant for our discussion are a few caveats to note: This is not the average commercial drone but a custom made one. It has a downsized GPU (NVIDIA Jetson TX2) and a stereo video camera. The latter is necessary to get 3D information of the environment (what I said about mono video not having this information), the former in order to make the computation fast enough. This probably does not work on a mobile phone (our infamous five year old snapdragon). And, of course, this is "only" the navigation part. No target detection and tracking and whatever else we may come up with that our drone might need.

That said, the video is 3 years old, the hardware doesn't cost an arm and a leg and it is likely there have been improvements over time.

[LongLeftFlank]

16 hours ago, omae2 said:

This on paper makes sense but in reality Hungary is start to deviate more to the eastern part of the world. They try to make business with russian corps where ever they can. For example a russian super market coming to my country and gonna build god knows how many market. They will try to undercut the western super markets in price heavily at least that was the news a couple month ago.
Contrary to that Spar which is i think a German or Austrian super market are being pushed out by the government because they didn't let them to buy a certain percentage into to their corp.

Also my government is deliberately provoking the western partners (like not supporting the memory of the sebrenica massacre and such), and im not sure why is that but if i have to pull out an answer from under, i would say because they cannot leave the EU or NATO they can be only kicked out of it. Otherwise people will get very angry. But from their point of view EU and maybe even NATO (although im not sure about that cause our value in the eyes of our eastern partners is based on our position in the western world) is a risk. As you can see above its not just the ideological differences but the greed of my dear government as well that sooner or later will inevitably break this alliance. Unless something happen.

Viktor said that he want to stay in power for 2036. Not as fidesz but as a person. He made his childhood friend one of the richest guy in the country, but most of us are thinking that he just holding the money for him, cause he is a pushover. Also his child amassed ridiculous amount of money as well. If he lose an election its sure that his opponents will be out for that money, and to make an example of him. So i guess all this pro russian government is based on the fat guy fears of held responsible for what he done.

If we are out of the EU and NATO, and in BRICS than he can be assured that eastern military will keep him in power and out of jail if his a good boy.

So im not sure if those data is valid in this context, they don't care about the country only about themself.

Sure, and there's good money to be made  from payola helping EU companies and other multinats bust sanctions! For as long as you're still in power anyway.

Just ask (via ouija board, hopefully in hell) the Clintons' BFF Marc Rich (his money was entirely bipartisan), founding father of Glencore.

...Also dear oligarch, hope you don't mind never visiting your villas in the rest of the EU zone (or Miami), for fear of being detained. Also, better make sure your family members aren't on any shell company boards, etc., unless they enjoy holidays in Sochi.

These corporate veils and yarn diagrams get easier for authorities (and private shops like, e.g. Kroll, Palantir, Muddy Waters) to pierce and unravel every year; that's one emerging high value use of AI. Be careful what you put your name on these days, folks, lest you become a 'person of interest' (but I digress here).

[Joe982]

19 hours ago, ZellZeka said:

In the event of capitulation, only a relatively small number of Ukrainian nationalists will suffer,

Suffer in what way? Of course you mean murdured by Putin just he kills all political opponents!

[Maciej Zwolinski]

19 hours ago, ZellZeka said:

In the event of capitulation, only a relatively small number of Ukrainian nationalists will suffer, while the majority of Ukrainians will be free to continue living their lives. 

Substitute "patriots and local elites" for the loaded term "nationalists"  and you would be right; that is the way every conquest happens. Eliminate those who care about the idea of their nation and those who have ambitions to lead in their community and the rest will follow whoever is the new tyrant just to save their lives and households. Then in a couple of generations an effective genocide may happen because that "majority" will be happy to speak Russian and take orders from the new governor appointed from Moscow, and they will be Ukrainians no more. That is the Russian way since the Middle Ages - probably the first victims were the Ugric tribes in the North, then various Turkic groups which just started to settle down South-East of Moscow in XVI century, and then the Russians went on their merry way from Vladivostok to Królewiec doing exactly the same thing.

This is also exactly why some nations do not want to surrender and go on fighting - because that group of "nationalists" who care about more than the next meal is large enough to overcome the objections of the indifferent others.

And on a more personal note - that "argument" is in essence an appeal to surrender to tyranny, based on cowardice, pusillanimity and stupidity. It made me actually (slightly) nauseous to read something so nakedly depraved .