omae2

While you're right i would add, that there is no full mobilization and there is no need yet to throw kids into the meatgrinder who made nothing that last after they died horribly. The Ukrainians see this well this is why those whom under 27 (i think now its 25) are not mobilized. On one hand they need that generation to build whats been destroyed and to make children. On the other hand someone who has kids and a house will most likely have motivation to defend that. Someone who has nothing will have not much motivation unless ideology or hate. So in the end they will not fight for freedom, cause they have no attachments. They are free to flee and live in another country building a life up. I mean you cant really argue with human nature or at least its pointless. But than again, yet there is no need for 18 years old in the trenches, what they need is weapons and ammunition. Thousands could have been saved by those two. But that kid, i doubt he would have made any difference.

I don't think its right to blame a kid for running away. Most of the guys that go to fight for Ukraine was in the military and love to do that. Not all but its a big difference. Also its easy to demand a kid to risk its limbs and life while had no opportunity to get a family and kid, so leaving behind something. But its ain't right. I understand why you seeing this way, cause you probably joined up with the military at a young age and lived a life there. Those who run know very little about it, most of them would not be an officer only a grunt. I have young Ukrainians just on the opposite door on my level, the kid must be like 20 something. I couldn't blame him from leaving, its a choice that can be made. He can have a life, as he should be, its perfectly fine.

They should only threaten, not only the bridge but across the western part of russia so the russians pull aa systems off the front into the back yard. Similar how the russians is bombing the cities to force the Ukrainians to defend their cities with their scarce aa systems. Oil refineries are good target cause the russians have to defend them. But the main effort should be attacking the frontline supportive units. Weakening multiple spots, closely following where the gaps develop then faint one attack and develop another. I don't get this whole USA thing. When the European NATO members tried to take control of the aid process they didn't like that. They wanted to be in charge. Now if Trump get into office he will totally cut Ukraine? It really feels like soap opera. I don't get it why a 500 million population, economic powerhouse relying on an oversea circus to ensure its protection against the russians. We could be a contender to china and the USA yet we still act like some sort of a naive idiot that don't know what to do. Constant bickering about nothing, loud speeches than no actions taken, letting my country to stop the process of giving aid to Ukraine on the EU level. Germany should already work on obtaining nuclear weapons, Poland as well. We should already integrate the member states army into a EU army that has a common language. They should bring back conscription so every young fella can have a basic knowledge about warfare. Not watching the USA if they manage to vote in a senile guy for a second term against an old spoiled brat with narcissistic personality disorder.

No it will not last even that long. As soon as the russians think that they can bite off another slice from Ukraine with moderate losses they will provoke or create a situation where the deal can thrown to the trash bin. They did similar things with the minsk agreements. All these nonsense about negotiations is futile and shows that the west still don't get the situation which they are in. russia long term goal is to either break up the EU or demolish it and they want the USA to get back to the other side of the ocean. They are confident that they can do that because they have nuclear weapons which give them the upper hand against the EU. They are fairly sure that in a case of a limited nuclear strikes against European cities the USA will not retaliate because they simply "not mad enough" and only those who "hate their own country would retaliate." russia want war, and they will pursue this goal for the next decades unless they have a major slap in the face that will make them realize how dumb their plan is. Every attempt to treat the russian elite as a legitimate political entity is just helping their goals. The west should build up its production capacity as fast as possible, to be honest they should have done that 2 years ago. Right now we heading towards the worst possible outcome.

An interesting peak into the russian geopolitical mindset. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06PtZaSK4YU

Drones could just identify landmarks, or have integrated satellite pictures or other type of maps that help it with navigation.

We should tolerate each other than, even if one on the other side of certain issues.

The main problem with this attitude is: 1.: It doesn't respect other peoples opinion on the matter, which very common when it comes to this topic. 2.: You guys acting like the west giving charity to Ukraine and not pursuing its political goals. The hypocrisy is strong with the argument that if you don't like our values than join the other side. Which would be a very big problem to NATO. 3.: This topics are not just blown out of proportion but doesn't matter at all. This is why its such a hotly discussed topic on the west. Cause it is a dividing matter, and have no consequence in peoples life. You can chew on it like a bone without any brain based on believes. So i think we could give the courtesy to Haiduk that he has his values that can be respected not just yours.

Not just balls but a lot of US provided weapons as well. Those weapons would be of use in your country better against the russians. Israel picked a very peculiar time to get into an escalation circle in the middle east. All the support that is wasted on Israel us gonna be missed in Ukraine. That's even more concerning when you realize that Iran cant really do anything other than political stunts with its drone and proxies. All of that is pointless and lead to nothing but wasting efforts and assets on the middle east.

That's cant be the reason behind this. Israel has no border with Iran so they only going to shoot at each other with long range systems and some lightly armed paramilitary group will attack on land. If i would try to make some brain fart i would say that some US figure thinks that a constant russian threat to Europe is better than a beaten russia. Or just plain stupidity. I mean from personal experience i can say that humans are dumb as ****. But i don't move around the level these peoples live.

I think what we see on the net is misguiding. We cannot understand the context in which a successful hit was achieved. I fairly confident that there is many more gunners that shooting the same drone. What i think would be a counter is smaller but faster kamikaze drones that would track down and flew into the attacking drone, with the help of some platform that will make it easier to register threats. Also high priority targets should be defended by automatic guns that shot something that separate in the air like a bird shot and have target identification tools as well as automatic target acquisition. And of course all of that with as little money as possible. Drone warfare will be attrition warfare, and drone warfare is the future. To be honest i would not want to be a soldier nowadays. There is many ways to twist this and i think technically more qualified peoples will make many new ways to defend and to attack with drone, but what is sure that twenty years from now drones will be the main tool on the battlefield. I wonder what would that do with our society. I mean we are at the 60 in terms of defense of high priority targets. With automatic leading on the last part of the fly a drone can take out any political figure that show himself under the open sky. Twenty years from now there will be no point to have a hand held weapon against a technically superior foe, or even ones own government cause it would take no risk to kill that person. The other thing is that it would be of no risk to kill anybody when range of this type of drones get to a threshold where its impossible to identify the killer. I think that a very wild part of the human history is coming towards us.

To me it seems that the trend is changing. Europe try to take the initiative in the war since the USA shown reluctance about supporting Ukraine. Which is i think the way to go. USA is more concerned with the pacific theater and Europe need to build up force to not rely the USA that much anyway. This war is now a grind because of the state of warfare in present day, therefor the critical factor can be psyops. Nato states should actively hunt for russian influencers and speed up the propaganda machine against the russians. Also there should be a constant effort to influence the russian population with every tool available. There should be a constant stream of war is terrible propaganda aimed at the russian average Joe and Jane. Hacked TV stations, abusing VK algorithm to show the pointless and cruel end of the russians in Ukraine. Constantly, everyday, beating in to their head that this is pointless, terrible and can be stopped by them.

Sorry for the double quote i couldn't delete it. So anyone can explain why the white house is so against NATO and therefor Europe taking the initiative in the weapon supply? I mean they are clearly having issues and on the other side of the sea, so their peoples don't feel the same threat as we do. The USA is acting as a wild card its only natural that we step up, and even if the NATO will take control of the supply it does not mean that the USA and its eastern allies cannot help Ukraine if they find the will for it. So what could be the real reason?

The russians have criminals or pseudo criminals that sell weapons. In Hungary about 8 or 6 years ago two russian got caught while they tried to sell manpads to Mexican cartels. Both were given back to russia, both were released by the russian goverment. These criminal organization i think is in bed with the FSB. Selling weapons give you contacts around the world, that would make it possible to influence actors that otherwise would be hostile to them. But again, i don't want argue cause i have nothing. Its just offtopic at this.

I get why we are look like nutjobs, because we only have doubt but no proof. But any of you saw the faces of the killers on the recordings? Even on the bodycam footage their face is blurred their voice is distorted. I don't want to keep argue about nothing cause we have nothing to prove our point. I'm just saying that this whole thing stinks.

Well i guess now we just have to wait for russians to solve the mystery why they would try to cross a frontline to flee russia. But its very clear that the russians saying that Ukraine is an accomplice at best. To a genuine terror attack. I couldn't imagine that they will come to this conclusion. But i bet that the plot will thicken in the next two week and in April a bunch of men will get a letter to pack their things and buy body armor.

Suit yourself if you feel that way. But for your rhetorical questions: "But now Putin needs to stage a terror attack to...do...what, exactly?" Cause of mobilization. Generally nobody want to die in Ukraine, so they need a shock factor that can be of use in forcing peoples to not to flee. Is it going to do that? I dunno, but after 911 guys all over the USA runned to join up with the army. Its possible that they take it as an example. "So now a single shoot out at a concert in Moscow is going to override all that "who gives a f#ckery?" Oh yeah this the thing with russia, the backwater can be ignored but if you have a major terror attack in moskva than **** gonna go down. Mothers crying on the net for years now and nobody lift a finger, but lets just wait out what will happen when a bunch of moskovite get blasted in the middle of the city. I have a feeling that's its gonna be different. So yeah im gonna stop now and concentrate on the real questions. - Why did ISIL-K do this now? (Maybe because they were encouraged by someone.) - How is Putin going to spin it and why? (Maybe he going to rally up hate against the Ukrainians that he will portray behind this whole fiasco. So people will not run over border from mobilization. Maybe.)

Whats the emotional reaction to when the countries air defense cannot defeat attacks? Fear and mistrust. Whats the emotional response to five guys going in and killing a bunch of unarmed civilian at a concert? Fear and Hate. One is an act of war the other is terrorism. Its disgusting even for those that hate the russians. So that's you number 2. Number 1: Because this is what gives legitimacy to the whole thing. You know and i know that this election was a joke, but not russians. They might doubt it, or they might know that it was not really an election at all, but its the law. They have legitimate power for the next what? Six year? So everybody should do as they say cause they have a legitimate power. If they don't they do that's a crime. It's that simple. Like is it surprise to you that know they start to speak about the "SMO" like war? Or that they will create 8 new brigade? No it was obvious 2 months ago. I know it, you know it, they know it. Did the russians know it? Some might but most people don't care about this things like the ones that are playing CM. They just living their life and all that **** is just a back noise. Average peoples don't know **** about politic and war. This why things work like they do.

This is where cultural differences come into play. You thinking like a westerner that has to be consistent in what hes saying. You don't get that this isn't the case in russia. The bigger the confusion the bigger the control. This is why i say that they will make twist on this that in the end will make no sense. Cause if its make no sense you will only remember the calling words. Ukraine was involved, and the feeling you should have that is hate. Every aspect of russian propaganda is based on building down rationality and enforcing emotional response. They aware that its hard influence rational peoples so they don't need them. They need instinct driven animals. It does not matter that it was a fault of their home defense service. Cause they will not be held responsible. The other thing is the narrative. It does not matter. really don't want to come with cliches but in 1984 there is a scene where they have the two minutes of hate. You know the story in the first part of the two minutes they saying one thing and in the end they say the exact opposite. Its true today as well. There are some peoples in the russian society that can have individual opinion and some influence but usually they are far away in Ukraine. Those back home are don't have influence or first hand experience to know what its true. Its an alternative reality. So it does not matter if the narrative does not fit the picture, only that it push the right button on the primitive parts of the human brain.

Nah its exactly the opposite. It doesn't matter what the world thinks its whats russians thinks that's matter. Because they instigating the events they are the one that matter. The russian elite will twist this thing until it makes no sense i'm sure of it, just as sure that there is a huge mobilization is coming with a state of war declaration. With the new flesh, the old meat wave tactic can yield success unless the Ukrainians have sufficient ammunition to kill the mobilized. Thats one thing. The other thing is that with the state of war things kinda changed. Russian elite works like a cheap clock. Its predictable. They did their election thing now they going to use it to drag the mans into the **** show they created. Its just another escalation. They firmly believing that with constant escalation sooner or later we will back down. And they firmly believing that they are untouchable. Hundreds of thousands may die but not them or their family. This is why the western agencies should work hard on killing the leading elements of the russian elite. If they think they take no risk only reward they will not change their way. General chaos in russia is still better than controlled madness.

I have some issues with what you say while i agree with most of it. I dont think that putin is as is it is today is a creation of the russians. What happens today is rest on the shoulders of western leaders that was totally out of touch with reality. They grew accustom to safety and lack of violence in politic. Merkel is one of he main figure that i think is guilty and i dont think that she per say a bad person, but she was a naive politican that didnt realize what situation shes creating. All putin does is ride the wave, he never had enough power to force the EU and USA to made the mistakes that they made, he just exploited them. And of course thats going to be popular with the russians. Now i am biased. I hate russians, i hate them because i saw their propaganda that lead up to this mess and thinking, that they bought it just make me feel disgust. But thats not the right reaction. They did what they think they must do and they will do it until they proven wrong. What we seeing is a collective madness of sort. They will push as hard as they can, i dont think that there is a chance that we will avoid an armed conflict with the russians. And as far the war going the western powers in the last two years made decisions that enforce that idea in me. Now Macron said his things, but i dont know if he means it. Which he should cause hes right. Russia is a hostile nation to NATO, the whole nation, we should treat it like that. They have one goal and that goal is to break western hegemony. The chinese have the same interest but they are much more patient than the russians, and dont like to risk that much. The main point is that we should act while we have the upper hand. We didnt do that in the last ten years, and reason for that is not just economic its sheer cowardliness. Our leaders simply didnt wanted to play a game where the stakes are that high. They liked simple answers to the problems they facing that lead us to a Europe that looks vulnerable and weak. That is totally on them, they made us look weak, that provoked the push from the other participant of global politic. So, i dont judge the russian mentality per say as they realize what is their interest in the current global politic, the reason why i hate them because of the sheer stupidity and shortsightness as they try to achieve it. I fairly confident that we as NATO should consider that we gonna be at war with russia very soon. There is a chance that this will blow over to other nations. But this is still better than what will happen if we dont take the glove that was slapped into our face. They will push us until we are in a corner. Their is no way out of this now, because we showed weakness that set things in motion and now they cannot simply back down. We should put behind us this method of thinking, like thinking in a way that we are in a movie. This political pr stunts like those who oppose putin should vote at 12:00. Like who gives a f..k:? This is the type of out of this world thinking that lead us to here, these metaphorical poetic BS. Peoples dying because of this. They getting maimed, their home destroyed. Its disgusting. Practical thinking is the only way to minimize our losses.

I was watching some warporn, bad habit of mine, when it realy struck me. Why dont the ukrainians highjack the russian tv stations when its hight time at saturday or sunday and show a bunch of Ruaf soldier torn apart by drone strikes. Like the whole point of this raid or i dont know what to call it that the free russian legion do is to strike fear into the hearth of the russian population when the election is due. But most of the population getting its information from the tv. That will only tell propaganda. Rest from the net. Seeing the futile death of this young fellas would give them a perspective whats to come when the war reaching them. Seeing the reports of russian army beating back terrorist only enforce the goverment power. Even in their culture that kind of pointless and cruel end is something that surely make an emotional response. So why not they doing that?

I'm just throw this up because it crossed my mind and i wonder what other would say, but i feel like we getting to an age where firepower is getting less important than processing power. I know it sounds stupid but hear me out. Unmanned vehicles going to take over basic roles that was operated by flesh. That means that physical limitation gonna be widen. What we see now is really the most primitive part of unmanned assets. They gonna evolve rapidly. For example an UAV now is fairly limited by the pilot but once it has autonomy its gonna do ridiculous maneuvers to avoid fire and hit the target. Which means that target tracking with fire have to kept on a level of the capabilities of the UAV. Most of the aa systems are operating in a fairly limited range, trying to shoot down things that cannot change directions quickly. As soon as this range widens the old system will not be able to shot down new assets in time. So because you can only defend things for a certain point with armor but the main effort gonna be to hit the target on a weak spot with certainty. For that you need a lot semi conductors and micro electronic manufacturing capabilities. Explosive size don't have to be big, its the spot where the hit happens that matter. So high tech armies gonna be able to do things without flesh. Basically no political backlash from intervention or invasion cause you have nobody that is effected in your voting pool.

I think the reason for the decrease is simply lack of intel on good targets. The russians has this go slow, full stop, go slow tendency. I figure when they met with a stronghold they slowly mapping out the defense system and than start to crushing it. Than they try to jump off from the rubble and run into killzones. Similar thing happened early in a town called Popsana or Pavlovka or something sorry im not good with these ukrainian names. Back than it was mostly arty, but they blow the whole town to proceed. Than himars came and the logistic crumbled. Same with bakhmut, now with avdiivka. As soon as things get less static the russians lose means to use their superior firepower. Sad thing that Ukraine cannot force the russians into maneuver warfare properly.

I'm not really on a level to argue with you but i watched some russian propaganda shows and argue about one and a half year with middle men whom was spreading russian propaganda (and that was a waste of time) so i'm very familiar with their arguing points. I'm saying this because its feels like that their is a misunderstanding how russia is waging this war. So first of all at the start of the war putin said that the its a challenge against the west hegemony and that the west should consider russia's interest from that point on. Something on the line i'm not remembering how it was said. But this isn't started there, its started back in 14. And since than they using the same tactics. They lie without impunity and escalate because they are fairly confident that the west will not throw away its good life for Ukraine. They are proud of their suffering its a badge of honor that they can endure more than others. That's in their culture. When US lose 50 000 for Vietnam its a tragedy when russia lose 16 000 for a little town its business as usual. Russians don't care about loses until they are involved. Other thing is that russia is a system based on suppression. The elite don't have to care about votes, and they made phony opposition parties that aimed at useful fools. Loud and dumb peoples. Russian propaganda is not aimed at intellectual its aimed at the mass, not to persuaded them to believe in something but to don't care. They are pushing extremes from every side of the political palette, and drown the rationality with a noise similar to a pub argument. Those whom are a real threat to the system simply squashed, intimidated, jailed or killed in a way that everybody is aware that they did that. But in the same time lying that they didn't. They more akin to a mafia than a political party. Everybody in the russian system is aware that the big guys are so powerful that you cant really f..ck with them and they make them sure to remind them again and again. Navalny, Sojgu, even Mortz is a sign for the rest. You have no chance, do as we want or you will be sorry. There is no way in the short run to russia explode. They are basically part brainwashed and partly scared of the elite so much that they don't believe that there is a chance for a power change. Many believe that if there would be a power change the new elite would be more dangerous than one they have now. So no their is no other way than to keep making the Ukrainians kill russians until they will be so scared that they would risk a fight against the elite. Cause the elite plays a different game than the west. They perfectly aware that they can push their peoples into situations that they don't want without a serious blow back. While in the west when people get scared they just vote out the guy who is charge and put in one that say its gonna be all okay. Their long game is simply playing chicken with the west and take as much as they can while they do. They will not stop at Ukraine if they don't have to. They don't believe that west would risk a war for Estonia or Latvia or Moldova. Same as they believe that west will not fight for Ukraine. Once you prove them right they will go on. If Ukriane is check, than the Baltic and Moldova, if that's check than transnistria even if it means to attack Poland. Cause they are sure that the west is a coward. I cannot really emphasize this. They believe it like a religion. So they will push until they are allowed to, they will not stop until they have to. And that's something that peoples in the west should understand, their is a kind of madness with the russian society that is dangerous as hell, and the more time you give them the more dangerous they become. They are not getting weaker, the elite basically destroyed any opposition and right to oppose them under the war. They are getting more akin to the third Reich after 43. Except they have nukes.