Battlefront.com Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Obviously Budanov's comments were carefully decided upon before he gave the interview. My guess is it was to remind the West that Ukraine is still capable of defending itself as well a making a lot of Russian leaders nervous. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Quick question on the US political process. Does the vote today mean that the Discharge Bill is no longer relevant? Or is that still hanging around in the background and can be triggered if the Aid bill doesn't pass? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony P. Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 43 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Hmm, well I will take your word for it but it really sounds like creative accounting. This is a bad example really, traffic accidents are more often expressed in fatalities, not cars. In fact one can have more car accidents but fewer fatalities (see: seatbelt campaigns in the 80s). Well, it's a broad analogy, not necessarily a good analogy. Experts with far more to their name than my meandering thesis view it as a better metric and from what I've learnt, it makes sense. Perhaps wildfires are a better analogy: wildfires/democratic backsliding is something which can affect different numbers of people, but regardless of how many or few it affects, they both need countering and counting in the same way (we're not counting the size of the wildfire in this example). Quote Regardless, as much fun as this side journey has been, I think we can agree that democracy has come under pressure recently - there seems to be wide agreement on this. Whether this is a blip or trend is kind of a red herring as it will either be a blip or trend based entirely on what we do right now. And more specifically how well the US defends its own democracy individually and abroad...like Ukraine. As a Canadian, I can say with a lot of authority that if the US democracy fails/erodes, we are not going to be able to write it off as a "single nation backsliding" in the global ledger. We are going to feel that impact on a very broad scope and scale. Further, the western world and champions of democracy, fumble the ball in Ukraine the impacts on global order and stability will also be felt far and wide. We cannot reduce this war to "one more in the lose column". More importantly "how" we win or lose this war is also very important. If we can "lose" in a Korean Peninsula scenario - which, I for one do not see as a loss but many will disagree - we can still preserve something of a global order. If we catastrophically lose through apathy and political paralysis it is going to risk damaging the democratic narrative and influence for some time to come. Absolutely, this is perhaps the "size of the wildfire": if leading world players like the USA slide towards autocracy, that's definitely a larger issue than e.g. Hungary doing so. But the number of citizens here doesn't correlate with the relevance these countries have on the international stage: India had a massive population already in 1948 when it played virtually no role in international politics, for example. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) This is probably wasn't posted here Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko in own intervew about week ago let it slip (or not), hinting about Putin's startegy for nearest time. He told that it would be great if Ukraine and Russia sign peace up to 31st of May. Because in this day powers of Zelenskiy expire and if, God save, other president will come to power like Poroshenko again, he may just to reject any agreements, signed after this data, because they were signed by illegitimate president. Many of Poroshenko followers in unison with Russian propaganda try to share among Ukrainian society an opinion, that after 31st of May Zelenskiy will become an usurper and army shouldn't execute his directives. Really in Ukrainian Constitution has wriiten that in conditions of emergency and martial law any elections are prohibited. But there is no definition what should happen with powers of current president in this case. And this gives a food for different speculatoins. So, probably, desperate and fierce meat assults, strikes on energy system, blocking of the military aid with help of MAGA side and some other factors, like blocking of Ukrainian borders by Polish farmers under protection of pro-Russian political force, urgent requests to stop hit Russian refineries are the chains of one plan to broke Ukraine and force to sign peace agreement. But something getting wrong... Edited April 19 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) Today was claimed Ukrainian AD first time shot down two Kh-22 supersonic cruise missiles. But as became knowingly one of these missiles turned out newest Kh-32 - deep upgrade of Kh-22 with reduced warhead, extended fuel tanks and newest homing and EW protection equipment. Kh-32 can be carried by upgraded Tu-22M3M bomber. In present time probably only one such bomber exists, upgraded in 2018 and which became operational in 2020. In 2019 several Tu-22M3 were moved from storage to Kazan' aviation plant for modernization into Tu-22M3M version, but it's unknown either works were finished or not. In more recent times Russia palnned to upgrade 30 bombers to M3M version up to 2020, but long time of works over Kh-32 foiled these plans. It was adopted only in 2016. On the photo - fragments of shot down Kh-32 missile, issued today by General Staff https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayinska-protypovitryana-oborona-zbyla-raketu-h-32-yaku-vyrobyly-u-2023-rotsi/ Edited April 19 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 minute ago, Haiduk said: Today was claimed Ukrainian AD first time shot down two Kh-22 supersonic cruise missiles. But as became knowingly one of these missiles turned out newest Kh-32 - deep upgrade of Kh-22 with reduced warhead, extended fuel tanks and newest homing and EW protection equipment. Kh-32 can be carried by upgraded Tu-22M3M bomber. In present time probably only one such bomber exists. In 2019 several Tu-22M3 were moved from storage to Kazan' aviation plant for modernization into Tu-22M3M version, but it's unknown either works were finished or not. In more recent times Russia palnned to upgrade 30 bombers to M3M version up to 2020, but long time of works over Kh-32 foiled these plans. It was adopted only in 2016. On the photo - fragments of shot down Kh-32 missile, issued today by General Staff https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayinska-protypovitryana-oborona-zbyla-raketu-h-32-yaku-vyrobyly-u-2023-rotsi/ Interesting. I think there's at least one bomber in Russian service that the Ukrainians are going to focus on destroying. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Interesting. I think there's at least one bomber in Russian service that the Ukrainians are going to focus on destroying. Steve There were six launches of Kh-22/Kh-32 today. Typical payload of Tu-22 is two such missiles. Reportedly one Russian bomber turned back after his leading Tu-22 was hit. So, probably 8 bombers participated in this raid and it's hard to designate which of them is Tu-22M3M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 TG channel of 177th naval infantry regiment servicemen mothers and wives says for two months in Krynky only 10 % of regimemt were turned back intact from initial 3000 of personnel. So 2700 killed, wounded and missed. Regiment now in own permanent station preparing new replenishment. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ultradave Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 2 hours ago, Eddy said: Quick question on the US political process. Does the vote today mean that the Discharge Bill is no longer relevant? Or is that still hanging around in the background and can be triggered if the Aid bill doesn't pass? Good question. I *believe* it's still in place, but does not yet have the required signatures to move forward. It requires a majority of the House, (218). But it is still open to be signed by others. The better news is that it sounds now quite likely the aid bill(s) will pass - (s) because it's convoluted. The bills were split to be voted separately, and then will be recombined so that they match the Senate bill already passed - or close to it so the Senate can quickly vote on the House version. Complicated, arcane rules. Dave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 How to bypass a government not doing what you want it to do. Not sure it would work in America. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68843542 Quote A crowdfunding campaign in Slovakia to buy artillery shells for Ukraine has exceeded its target of €1m (£850,000), less than 48 hours after it was launched. The campaign is a response to the Slovak cabinet's refusal to join an initiative by the Czech government to buy up hundreds of thousands of shells for the Ukrainian armed forces. "We have to drive Putin out of Ukraine. We have to defeat him," said Otto Simko, a Holocaust survivor and veteran of the 1944 Slovak National Uprising against the Nazis. Aged 99, he helped kickstart the campaign to challenge the government's policy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) Not sure if posted yet, but this Twitter thread by @RALee85 has tons of videos showing Russian aircraft flying without fear of Patriots or mid-range AA systems. We need more short and mid-range AA systems to Ukraine, goddamn it this is insane, minimal numbers of anything isn't enough, Russia is literally horde walking, slow horde walking but walking neithertheless over Ukraine, if we cannot adopt the needed mindsets to enable long term defense, how is anybody supposed to trust us against China or Russia? Arsenal of democracy? bull****. Quote It’s remarkable that Russian Su-25 jets can operate so frequently and seemingly uncontested over western Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Khromove and the open fields between those and Chasiv Yar, especially when Chasiv Yar’s elevation is higher and these jets would be in clear sight of Ukrainian air defenses — if they had any stingers etc there to use. They are flying within 1.5-2 miles of Chasiv Yar’s eastern district. The camera in the video posted by @RALee85 below is filming from about the spot and the ️ is the area where the jets are flying. The other videos in the thread are roughly the same area. Inside Tweet: Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition. Edited April 19 by FancyCat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 More detailed sattelite shots of Dzhankoy airbase has appeared Large article with preliminary analysis: https://www.twz.com/news-features/major-damage-at-russian-airbase-in-crimea-after-ukrainian-attack Some photos from this article: At least battery set of S-400/S-300 destroyed Something similar to separately standing radars in zone of cluster subminition explosions 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Ukraine this night conducted large drone attack on Russian infrastructure objects with at least 50 drones, including jet ones. This was combined operation of SBU, GUR and SOF Russian side as usual claimed all drones were shot down/supressed, BUT: Most successful attack was on "Lukoil" and "Nyeftyanika" companies oil depots near Kardymovo village in Smolensk oblast. Both bases, standing side-by-side were set on fire. This is transit oil bases - Russian oil accumulates here before transporting on Belarusian refineries and then a gas and other products mostly go back to Russian market. Locals also reported in TG they heard a sound of jet engine and explosion in area of Smolensk aviation plant. This object, which specialized on light aircraft and Kh-59 missiles producing already was hit by a drone in November 2023 In Vygonichi, Briansk oblast power substation was hit Staryi Oskol, Belgorod oblast - also reportedly power object was hit Reportedly a fire on power substation in Ufa, Bashjortostan Republic, but this is 1500 km from Ukraine. Maybe technical failure or diversion 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 (edited) UKR military analysts Oleksandr Kovalenko comments the reportage of Russian TV with a visit of Shoigu on "Omsktransmash" - the plant where T-80 from storage bases upgrading to T-80BVM mod.2022. He says the reportage confirms his and Andriy Tarasenko conclusions that this plant may issue in avarage a company set of T-80BVM per month. Depending of level of coming T-80 conditions and increasing of output this number may grow up to two company sets Edited April 20 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Looks like this thing may finally happen: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-house-is-on-the-brink-of-approving-aid-for-ukraine-and-israel-after-months-of-struggle-1.6855230 Going to really have to play it smart with this package as it may be the last one Ukraine gets. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Does anyone who knows his way around artillery shells know what these Russians are doing? One of them seems to be attaching fuses. But this whole activity is strange. Are shell housings usually closed off with a cap you need to bash in? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 12 minutes ago, Carolus said: Does anyone who knows his way around artillery shells know what these Russians are doing? One of them seems to be attaching fuses. But this whole activity is strange. Are shell housings usually closed off with a cap you need to bash in? I think what's happening here is that these shells are so old and rusty that the normal protective cap that is usually screwed off before screwing in the fuze is so rusty that it cannot be unscrewed, but it can be bashed in by a hammer. Then after fishing out the fragments, they try to attach the fuzes, but he complains that the fuze won't go all the way in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 25 minutes ago, Carolus said: Does anyone who knows his way around artillery shells know what these Russians are doing? One of them seems to be attaching fuses. But this whole activity is strange. Are shell housings usually closed off with a cap you need to bash in? I have some questions about this too, but here's what it looks like they are doing... The shells are VERY old and/or poorly stored. The fuses (or storage plug?) that are on them already are rusted in place. They smash them into the shell, then clean the threads, the put in a new fuse. What I don't get is that there's no powder in these shells already. So it looks like they were stockpiled empty and have to be filled. But why is this being done in the field instead of in a factory setting? The brass casing look to be in poor condition as well. Poor quality brass will corrode, so who knows how reliable those casings are. Might not even fit into the breach or could get stuck even if it holds up to use. Well, that's the best guess I have Steve [Edit = cross post with Bulletpoint. Looks like we're clear about what they are doing, but I'm still questioning why someone else isn't doing it] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baneman Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 My guess is that it's confusing us because it is actually one of those known-to-be-meaningless punishment tasks the army likes to give miscreants like scrubbing the urinal with a toothbrush. Otherwise, bafflement 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: I have some questions about this too, but here's what it looks like they are doing... The shells are VERY old and/or poorly stored. The fuses (or storage plug?) that are on them already are rusted in place. They smash them into the shell, then clean the threads, the put in a new fuse. What I don't get is that there's no powder in these shells already. So it looks like they were stockpiled empty and have to be filled. But why is this being done in the field instead of in a factory setting? The brass casing look to be in poor condition as well. Poor quality brass will corrode, so who knows how reliable those casings are. Might not even fit into the breach or could get stuck even if it holds up to use. Well, that's the best guess I have Steve [Edit = cross post with Bulletpoint. Looks like we're clear about what they are doing, but I'm still questioning why someone else isn't doing it] There's a point where the guy films directly into the shell, and it looks empty, but I'm thinking it's maybe just a trick of the camera - the fuze well itself is empty, but the HE filling is still in there? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 17 hours ago, Holien said: How to bypass a government not doing what you want it to do. Not sure it would work in America. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68843542 Most of us Norteamericanos are old enough to remember this one, right? [/irony] 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 2 hours ago, Carolus said: Does anyone who knows his way around artillery shells know what these Russians are doing? One of them seems to be attaching fuses. But this whole activity is strange. Are shell housings usually closed off with a cap you need to bash in? Plus ca change... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 44 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: There's a point where the guy films directly into the shell, and it looks empty, but I'm thinking it's maybe just a trick of the camera - the fuze well itself is empty, but the HE filling is still in there? No, they are definitely empty. Nothing comes out when they toss them aside, plus the shot down in clearly shows the debris of the old plug/fuse lying at the bottom of the inside. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Voting on the foreign aid bills started in the House a minute ago. This followed the defeat of the border security bill that was packaged with the foreign aid. It fell short of the 2/3rds vote needed to pass under the rules approved by vote yesterday. There's a couple more procedural votes, from what I can tell, then it's a vote on Israeli aid and then Ukraine aid H.R. 8035 Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 4 hours ago, The_Capt said: Going to really have to play it smart with this package as it may be the last one Ukraine gets. Should Trump win, couldn't (and wouldn't) Biden just value old weapon stocks at one cent per piece and have it ship to Ukraine out of his own purse? Not exactly very gentlemanlike for an outgoing president but in this case... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.