How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian MoD rises money award for enlisting motivation to space levels. 

Soldier from Robotyne direction writes:

We take a captive. He says they get 700 000 rubles of additional payment for first coming to assault. They usually don't come back from these assaults, but who thinks about this...

So, any Russian, who enlists got a money for contract signing - from 650 000 to 1100000 depending of region (initially was 500 000 in all regions). This is 6900 - 17000 $. Than he gest monthly 250000 (initially was 200000) - 2600 $. And at last for first assault (I don't know how much shared this practice) he gets 700 000 - 7500 $

This is unprecedented money for most Russians, especally from outbacks. 

This is a very good indicator of how difficult it is for Russia to find volunteers.  They would never offer such large amounts of money if it wasn't necessary.  I bet someone out there has a line chart showing how the compensation numbers have changed since the war started and the line is getting steeper as time goes on.

There's a secondary problem that comes with this.  As discussed by people who understand economies, especially Russia's, raising the compensation rate puts pressure on businesses' ability to retain workers.  Standard economics... workers go where the money is.  Since Russia was already facing a worker shortage even before the war, and it's only gotten worse since, the latest round of increases is likely to cause significant problems for some sectors of the Russian economy (generally) and specific enterprises.  And it won't take long for that effect to happen, at least at a local level.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Haiduk,

Thanks for the updates on the various parts of the front.  It seems that the Russian summer offensive is starting early.  I think we're seeing too many attacks across too much of the front for this to be generalized local activity. 

My guess is they started things early because several weeks ago it became obvious to everybody, including Moscow, that  US aid to Ukraine was going to finally happen and do so soon.  Moscow fully understands how quickly it will arrive once approved, so it makes sense for them to push as hard as they can before it arrives.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

I think the bite and hold strategy and then bite some more is not a bad strategy, given Russia’s constraints (apart from the whole economy imploding eventually and throwing away lives). However, let’s say Russia is able to get a bit further, grab a few more towns. What are they going to do once glide bombs become less tenable, and the ground hardens up?

I think the defensive trench and minefields situation is going to be extremely different this year; Ukraine has apparently made big leaps in small drones and their production, and I feel like that applied to a concentrated front is going to make defense very difficult (along with Russia’s ongoing artillery range issues).

We’re seeing small drones routinely applied to individual soldiers, so one could imagine that being done on offense too, to clear a trench at a time (assuming Ukraine can throw several drones per soldier at a position). If there’s no artillery within range due to counterbattery threat, then over a few days it should be possible to completely wipe out a line of positions on a smallish front, especially with thermal. I wonder if flamethrower drones would be useful to clear out bunkers (like the one on youtube for the wasp nest)?

[poesel]

Does drone supremacy (tm) solve the minefield problem? Or in other words: if you absolutely swamp one sector in drones and suppress every movement in a 10km(?) radius - is that enough to make breaching a minefield a possibility (under the assumption that you have half decent AA, too)?

[panzermartin]

Not sure if this pro russian account is trustworthy but this looks like preparation for RU wide scale offensive. 

Could this be actually effective against drones, I wonder. 

 

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

Does drone supremacy (tm) solve the minefield problem? Or in other words: if you absolutely swamp one sector in drones and suppress every movement in a 10km(?) radius - is that enough to make breaching a minefield a possibility (under the assumption that you have half decent AA, too)?

Now that is the question of the year…or maybe next year.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Not sure if this pro russian account is trustworthy but this looks like preparation for RU wide scale offensive. 

Could this be actually effective against drones, I wonder. 

 

Depends on the aerosol.  If it is just plain old smoke…not really.  Even cheap commercial drones can have multi-spectral cameras onboard, let alone the higher end stuff.  If it is treated smoke, which is harder to make and more expensive, it could give IR protection.

Problem with drones/FPVs is that they can fly under that layer unless they basically do it at ground level.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Not sure if this pro russian account is trustworthy but this looks like preparation for RU wide scale offensive. 

Could this be actually effective against drones, I wonder. 

 

Is it better than doing nothing?  Sure.  Does it complicate drone usage?  Sure.  But that's all it does even under the best circumstances.  All standard smoke problems apply here as they do anywhere else throughout military history.

Here's why I don't think this will effectively change the outcome:

1. Ukraine is incredibly windy.  Smoke doesn't work well in wind.  Even if the wind is fairly mild, or in a favorable direction, air still moves around and that breaks up smoke consistency.  The further out from the generators you go, the more that smoke is dissipated even under the best of circumstances.
2. Smoke is difficult to work with at any scale.  The bigger the scale, the more difficult it is to work with.  In particular the length of time for it to be maintained.  Therefore, this will be (at most) a limited capability for one small section of front at a time.
3. You can see even in this propaganda video that smoke isn't very effective.  I can see individual buildings, streets, and other things needed to navigate and that's on a tiny pixelated X video.  Trained drone operators should be able to navigate pretty easily even with non-thermal drones.
4. Thermal drones will not be affected by this tactic.  Even if they use thermal masking smoke, that only works when it is dense. There's just no way they can keep up that sort of density across the whole battlefield.  And the further out from the generators, the more difficult it will be to have smoke be dense.
5. Advance routes can be guessed at prior to any operation Russia might launch.  All Ukraine has to do is keep a couple of good ISR drones watching those locations and then direct the FPVs to any spots showing activity as they already do.  Even if the smoke causes some problems for the FPVs, if they are directed to a spot I think it's more than likely they'll be able to hit their targets.

And this presumes that Ukraine isn't able to interfere with the generators, which is silly   All Ukraine needs to do is wait for them to start producing smoke and they are sitting ducks because by definition they can't move once they start laying down smoke.  It's really not difficult to locate them since they have a very, very, very obvious signature.  Send in an ISR drone, see where the smoke starts, then hit them with FPVs and/or artillery.  Problem solved.

So... I think this is just more Russian copium.  It won't do much of anything even under the best circumstances, but even then it won't last long because they should be pretty easily knocked out.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

This OpEd is behind a paywall, but I think you can guess that it sums up the feelings of many here very well:

 

Quote

When the vote on Ukraine aid finally came, it was overwhelming, 311-112. That raised the question: Why in the world did such a popular measure take so long? It could have been done long ago, when President Biden requested the aid in October, had Johnson simply ignored the histrionics from pro-Putin House members who take their cues from Donald Trump.

 

A week … a month … six months ago, the vote to deliver critical aid could have prevented countless Ukrainian deaths...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/22/johnson-military-aid-damage-ukraine/

The article continues on with quotes from others and factual accounting of what's been going on while Johnson dithered.

Personally, I believe Johnson should get credit for finally doing the right thing.  He didn't have to or he could have waited even longer to do it.  Dems should reward him by voting down the resolution to have him removed.

There is some indication that Johnson had to learn the hard way that there's a difference between heckling the person in charge and being the person in charge.  He simply wasn't prepared for that transition and it took him months to get his bearings.  If he was a stronger man with a better mindset going into the job I'm sure things would have been much better.  But he wasn't and so it is what it is.

If Johnson can work towards undoing the damage he and his former MAGA associates (there's never friendship in radical movements) have brought about, then I think the country is better off with him than any of the alternatives until after the elections.  Perhaps even better than Jeffries, simply because if he is in then 100% of the GOP will work lockstep to oppose EVERYTHING.

Steve

[panzermartin]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Is it better than doing nothing?  Sure.  Does it complicate drone usage?  Sure.  But that's all it does even under the best circumstances.  All standard smoke problems apply here as they do anywhere else throughout military history.

Here's why I don't think this will effectively change the outcome:

1. Ukraine is incredibly windy.  Smoke doesn't work well in wind.  Even if the wind is fairly mild, or in a favorable direction, air still moves around and that breaks up smoke consistency.  The further out from the generators you go, the more that smoke is dissipated even under the best of circumstances.
2. Smoke is difficult to work with at any scale.  The bigger the scale, the more difficult it is to work with.  In particular the length of time for it to be maintained.  Therefore, this will be (at most) a limited capability for one small section of front at a time.
3. You can see even in this propaganda video that smoke isn't very effective.  I can see individual buildings, streets, and other things needed to navigate and that's on a tiny pixelated X video.  Trained drone operators should be able to navigate pretty easily even with non-thermal drones.
4. Thermal drones will not be affected by this tactic.  Even if they use thermal masking smoke, that only works when it is dense. There's just no way they can keep up that sort of density across the whole battlefield.  And the further out from the generators, the more difficult it will be to have smoke be dense.
5. Advance routes can be guessed at prior to any operation Russia might launch.  All Ukraine has to do is keep a couple of good ISR drones watching those locations and then direct the FPVs to any spots showing activity as they already do.  Even if the smoke causes some problems for the FPVs, if they are directed to a spot I think it's more than likely they'll be able to hit their targets.

And this presumes that Ukraine isn't able to interfere with the generators, which is silly   All Ukraine needs to do is wait for them to start producing smoke and they are sitting ducks because by definition they can't move once they start laying down smoke.  It's really not difficult to locate them since they have a very, very, very obvious signature.  Send in an ISR drone, see where the smoke starts, then hit them with FPVs and/or artillery.  Problem solved.

So... I think this is just more Russian copium.  It won't do much of anything even under the best circumstances, but even then it won't last long because they should be pretty easily knocked out.

Steve

 

6. I hope they have good graphics card BTW otherwise the offensive might stall

I agree overall. Looks like it's more psychological for own consumption. 

Though I think the primary weapon of Ukraine are myriads of small market non IR FPV drones that may have some problems. 

If I was serious as RU, I would also think of decoy smoke too. Not sure if they have the luxury though. 

This kinda reminds me of the rather unsussesful zukkov's use of searchligts in the battle of seelow heights. 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a very good indicator of how difficult it is for Russia to find volunteers.  They would never offer such large amounts of money if it wasn't necessary. 

Steve

At the same time if the odds are against you collecting....

kind of like the lottery - a tax on the math impaired.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Depends on the aerosol.  If it is just plain old smoke…not really.  Even cheap commercial drones can have multi-spectral cameras onboard, let alone the higher end stuff.  If it is treated smoke, which is harder to make and more expensive, it could give IR protection.

Problem with drones/FPVs is that they can fly under that layer unless they basically do it at ground level.

I suspect the main problem for Russians are the myriad simple FPV drones that Ukraine is using. These rely on plain cameras mainly. Smoke can make them less effective at some percent. Guess that would be small. They seem to be producing the smoke on ground level. 

I think it could be more effective perhaps with real time satellite intelligence the UA is getting from the West. But I have no accurate idea how "real time" it is in a moving battlefield. 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for the updates on the various parts of the front.  It seems that the Russian summer offensive is starting early. 

This is not offensive yet. Just a preparation phase to get more advantageous situation. According to opinion of Mashovets, Russian offensive developments on Slaviansk and Kramatorsk in terms and objectives will depend on results of current attempts of pre-offensive on Siversk, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka and Vuhledar directions  

Edited April 22 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I suspect the main problem for Russians are the myriad simple FPV drones that Ukraine is using. These rely on plain cameras mainly. Smoke can make them less effective at some percent. Guess that would be small. They seem to be producing the smoke on ground level. 

I think it could be more effective perhaps with real time satellite intelligence the UA is getting from the West. But I have no accurate idea how "real time" it is in a moving battlefield. 

There's not really "real time" continuous satellite coverage.  When satellites pass over a region, the data can be sent down in near real time.  Orbits of optical satellites (and essentially all satellites) are generally known, though fields-of-regard aren't necessarily, and people worried about space-based ISR have long kept track of when they'd be under a ground track or not.  Smoke during an optical pass will provide obscuration, but will be transparent to SAR.

[kimbosbread]

Yeah but it’s windy: https://windy.app/spots/Ukraine. Seriously, even a few km an hour is gonna disperse that smoke fast, plus moving troops are gonna be exposed while to move to the cover of the smoke. I think the little EW robots Russia is working on are probably a better bet, but that will merely accelerate the anti-radition-cheapo-drone development.

[Haiduk]

Russian Buk SAM was destroyed with HIMARS strike near Topoli village, Luhansk oblast (Kupiansk direction)

[sross112]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Does drone supremacy (tm) solve the minefield problem? Or in other words: if you absolutely swamp one sector in drones and suppress every movement in a 10km(?) radius - is that enough to make breaching a minefield a possibility (under the assumption that you have half decent AA, too)?

I don't think so until counter drone is solved for. The defender would still be able to send their drones to bust up the offensive operations, ISR for arty, etc. Until one side can deny drones I don't think there will be much movement. 

 

[kimbosbread]

I dunno, what about this?

 

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Yeah but it’s windy: https://windy.app/spots/Ukraine. Seriously, even a few km an hour is gonna disperse that smoke fast, plus moving troops are gonna be exposed while to move to the cover of the smoke.

My first thought when I saw that impressive amount of smoke was akin to this classic movie line:

How do we know all that smoke in that video was even going in the right direction?

Steve

[pintere]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

On Avdiivka sector after UKR successfull conter-attack 2-3 days ago, allowed to recapture lost positions in eastern part ot the Ocheretyne town, yesterday unnamed UKR unit in front of the face of next Russian attack along railways just abandoned positions and Russians again seized part of Ocheretyne, but in this time in south-eastern part. UKR command was forced to throw in the battle elements of 47th mech.brigade, which was partially moved to second line for short rest. 

Russians have choosen Ocheretyne as priority objective now and use here the same tactic like in Chasiv Yar. Unlike Wagner during the battles for Soledar and Bakhmut with a tactic of multiple small group attacks, with continous changing of these attack directions, Russians now use strong flanks pressure - this doesn't lead to decisive results without concentration of forces on one direction, but in conditions of personnel and aartillery support lack of UKR forces, this method hampers our reserve manuevers. 

Is it not possible for the Ukrainians to counterattack the flanks of the corridor at Ocheretyne? Standard military logic would suggest that the corridor there is just begging to be cut off.

Of course, this war is very different from previous wars…

Edited April 22 by pintere

[Carolus]

 

Some US company heard people in this thread wondering about Western automatic mortars and minefield breaching.

[Haiduk]

39 minutes ago, pintere said:

Is it not possible for the Ukrainians to counterattack the flanks of the corridor at Ocheretyne? Standard military logic would suggest that the corridor there is just begging to be cut off.

Of course, this war is very different from previous wars…

Exactly for securing the corridor in the area of responsibility of 30th motor-rifle brigade, Russians have thrown into the battle 35th and 74th brigades. We have severe lack of personnel and ammunition, so small-size tactical counter attacks are possible, but usually we havn't enough forces for large actions.

Edited April 22 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian aviation hit Kharkiv TV-tower with Kh-59 missile

 

[Haiduk]

Hard sitauation we have also in Krasnohorivka town north to occupied Maryinka. Several days ago Russians could break through of our rare artilery fire and drones and despite some losses in vehicles landed infantry in southern and south-eastern part of the town. Russians seized railway station area - this is area of dachas and private cottages, also Russian infantry was too few to continue advance. But we also had few infantry to clear this territory. Russians became to use their usual tactic of gradual forces accumulation in captured area for new further burst. Reportedly yesterday UKR troops again threw out Russians from SE part of Krasnohotivka and partially from southern part, recapturing railway stattion. But today Russians again slightly advanced in southern part of the town. BTW southern part is the contested area, because there too hard hold the ground for both sides. Main stronghold of UKR trrops (by Russian opinion) is a local fireproof structures plant, which Russian aviation "processes" with 500 kg and 1500 kg KABs. 

 

Edited April 22 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

On 4/16/2024 at 3:04 PM, sburke said:

whoa!  40 years!  Don't make em go by faster than they already do!  

U.S. BATTLESHIP POUNDS HILLS HELD BY SYRIANS IN LEBANON; BRITAIN; PULLING OUT TROOPS - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

I remember that time better than most. One of my childhood best friends was a Marine Captain who was killed in the truck bombing of the Marine Barracks at the Airport.

 

On 4/16/2024 at 3:04 PM, sburke said:

whoa!  40 years!  Don't make em go by faster than they already do!  

U.S. BATTLESHIP POUNDS HILLS HELD BY SYRIANS IN LEBANON; BRITAIN; PULLING OUT TROOPS - The New York Times (nytimes.com)