How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Yes, I did take a look at the other links. The part of my point that is in question here is "The overall trend so far appears to be towards greater democratization". And I stand by that. I don't think a 20 year decline constitutes a trend in democratization any more than a one year decline represents a trend in the stock market. When you zoom out the overall trend is still clearly upwards.

You realize the article you cited from Our World in Data was:

With a whole lot of data that counters your position.  You picked the last hopeful line in that article when the entire thing was about the overall decline in democracy worldwide for nearly 20 years.

Ok, I will play too.  I think that history shows that autocracies have been the vastly more common political system.  We have had democratic spasms in the past but they have always failed in the long term.  I think this current spasm is about 200 years old and due to fold up completely much like democracy has done in the past. I don't think a 200 year increase constitutes am upward trend in democratization when viewed through a 6000+ year lens any more than a one year decline represents a trend in the stock market. 

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

With a whole lot of data that counters your position. 

I think his point is that yes, there is a trend, but it's not necessarily linear.  As was pointed out in the Democracy Around the World article there have been dips before and they corrected.

So the question is more about what the relative short decline trend means for the future.  Are we going to snap back and go upwards again in another 5-10 years, or is this recent trend different than those before us and things will get much worse before (at some point) things get better?  And as you say, the jury is still out on that.  But at the same time, the historical trend is towards greater democracy and less autocracy, even if we're hitting a rough patch.

Unlike Climate Change, which is a matter of (reasonably) predictable science, where our self governance goes is not.  Though I will not insult the arts by saying it is more "art than science".  If I said that I'd probably have to say that Jackson Pollock is an artist, and there's no way I am going to say that.

Steve

[Offshoot]

To add some nuance to the numbers, note that the big change in democracy to autocracy from 2010-2021 is due almost completely to ONE country, India. Also note that the numbers for liberal democracies have not declined greatly (map and 2nd table showing total populations - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/how-many-people-live-in-a-political-democracy-today/) despite Canada's best efforts.

[FancyCat]

Formed from volunteer units of the armed wing of the Right Sector, the 67th Mech. is being divided up.

From one of the articles linked:

Imo, if true, that the unit could not integrate and was doing such Russian Frontline mobik tactics, then absolutely replacing with Syrskyi was the right move.

Quote

One of the factors revealed by the audit was issues within the brigade. The leadership allegedly separated the soldiers from the Right Sector and those who were transferred from other parts during the recent replenishment (they were referred to as "pixels", in reference to the pattern on the Ukrainian military uniform). The attitude toward the "pixels" was even worse; they were the first to be sent into combat, and their lack of experience made them lose territory.

Quote

Ukraine's 67th Mechanized Brigade, which was holding Chasiv Yar, "is being investigated and the military personnel who served as the brigade’s backbone are being transferred to other units." The Ukrainian Ground Forces announced that its assault battalion will now be a separate unit.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451183/

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/16/7451501/

https://t.co/SGm9I4j1l0

 

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think his point is that yes, there is a trend, but it's not necessarily linear.  As was pointed out in the Democracy Around the World article there have been dips before and they corrected.

So the question is more about what the relative short decline trend means for the future.  Are we going to snap back and go upwards again in another 5-10 years, or is this recent trend different than those before us and things will get much worse before (at some point) things get better?  And as you say, the jury is still out on that.  But at the same time, the historical trend is towards greater democracy and less autocracy, even if we're hitting a rough patch.

Unlike Climate Change, which is a matter of (reasonably) predictable science, where our self governance goes is not.  Though I will not insult the arts by saying it is more "art than science".  If I said that I'd probably have to say that Jackson Pollock is an artist, and there's no way I am going to say that.

Steve

And my point is that upward trend can only be sustained if we work for it and defend it.  Democracy is not the natural state of large scale human affairs or political systems.  History demonstrates quite the opposite.  The hope was that literacy and enlightenment would allow for greater informed choice by the masses but as we have just discussed there are some serious issues in the modern age with this.

Democracy using a much longer lens than even the last 100 years is a great experiment, not ordained by higher powers or a natural evolution that is enshrined in post-modern reality.  It takes work and sacrifice, it is not an entitlement.  Basically this could be the end of democracy if we sit back and let it happen. There is real danger in simply shrugging and declaring “slight dip” as if the upward trajectory is driven by greater forces.  Democracy will only survive if we want it to and make it happen.  We have seen it tried before in both Ancient Greece and Rome - albeit in different forms - and we abandoned it.  We can do it again…unless we consciously do not let it happen.

[danfrodo]

Some good news, some less good, but mostly good in this installment.  More patriot systems probably will be entering the pipeline.  Maybe big US aid on the way?  Hopefully.  RU continues to lose a lot of radar, hopefully one day we'll find F16s & lots of missiles/drones running through those AD holes.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/18/2235874/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-More-Patriots-may-be-on-the-way-for-Ukraine?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

[kimbosbread]

In what universe is Switzerland not considered to be a “Full Democracy”? It’s literally a confederation with direct democracy, and has been for longer than most countries have even had the concept of elections.

EDIT: I also do wonder about Japan being considered more democratic by some numeric ranking than the US, when Japan is basically a one party state.

Edited April 19 by kimbosbread

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

In what universe is Switzerland not considered to be a “Full Democracy”? It’s literally a confederation with direct democracy, and has been for longer than most countries have even had the concept of elections.

EDIT: I also do wonder about Japan being considered more democratic by some numeric ranking than the US, when Japan is basically a one party state.

What data are you referring to?  Everything I am seeing shows Switzerland as a full democracy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

[kimbosbread]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What data are you referring to?  Everything I am seeing shows Switzerland as a full democracy:

The silly picture that kept being posted in the thread.

[cesmonkey]

Off topic, but CNN (and others) report Israel has struck back against Iran.

[sburke]

40 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Off topic, but CNN (and others) report Israel has struck back against Iran.

The on topic part of an article about this.

Quote

The U.S. on Thursday announced a fresh set of sanctions targeting Iran's production of unmanned aerial vehicles, while Tehran warned Israel it would review its official stance on nuclear weapons if its atomic facilities were attacked.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And my point is that upward trend can only be sustained if we work for it and defend it.  Democracy is not the natural state of large scale human affairs or political systems.

Yup, and only a naive (but really sweet) person would argue that line has some absolute reason for going up.  Women in the US thought they had won the fight to control their bodies.  Complacency helped disprove that thinking. But, and here's the but... when a group of people are used to a particular freedom that gets taken away (ironically by a group that says they want less government interference in people's lives... but I digress) the naive might smarten up.  I know the GOP is petrified that they sank their own boat when they went fishing with a shotgun.  So far there's evidence to suggest they have.

The big question is if our modern, fully integrated, massively codependent society can recover from an extreme backslide. What my previously mentioned friend doesn't understand is if the right wing tries to "tear down and rebuild" the left isn't going to go along with it.  Best the right can hope for is rebuilding a nation without much in the way of technology, because high tech is not made by Truckers For Trump members.  Look at Russia... first people to go after the war started were the tech people.  And no tech people are moving to Russia to replace them.  Anybody who works in any tech related field can attest their company won't survive long with execs that belong to Q-Anon and Flat Earth Society.

Anyway, this is all getting a bit off track.  Suffice to say that the world is not safer nor better with the US falling into dysfunction.  Cripes, I think some might rather the abusive and corrupt Reagan style US foreign policy over the Nihilistic non-policy being pushed by the GOP now.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Speaking of Nihilistic foreign policy concepts, this profile of Senator Vance's view that killing Ukraine aid just the beginning:

Quote

In place of the rules-based international order, Vance thinks the U.S. needs to chart a new, more nationalistic system where individual nations are solely responsible for their own security and economic well-being, and more insulated from global economic and military entanglements. According to Vance, the first step toward nudging the world in that direction is ending U.S. aid to Ukraine — which, as became clear this week, depends on convincing his Republican colleagues in the House to kill Johnson’s foreign aid package.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/18/jd-vance-ukraine-aid-00153201

Brilliant idea!  It worked so well in the early part of the 20th Century.  You know, those two war thingies that the US found it had to get involved in and help settle.  If the US had just not interfered everything would be so much better.

My head hurts.  Which helped numb me to this:

Quote

Vance has marshaled several different arguments against additional U.S. aid to Ukraine, prompting his opponents in both parties to argue that he’s merely carrying water for Vladimir Putin and other authoritarian leaders. (Vance has, of course, pushed back against this characterization.)

When it comes to the specifics of the Ukraine bill, Vance has been pushing three main objections. In his New York Times op-ed last week, Vance argued that the current aid package — which would provide an additional $60 billion to Ukraine — would do little to shift the war in Ukraine’s favor. (Supporters of the current aid package have challenged this claim.) Vance also argues that the U.S. lacks the manufacturing capacity to produce the volume of weapons that Ukraine would need to win the war.

His last, and most explicitly partisan, objection stems from his preparations for Trump’s possible return to the White House next year. Vance has objected to a component of Johnson’s aid package — which proposes seizing Russian assets under the REPO Act and freezing the current sanction regime against Russia in place — on the grounds that it would tie a second-term Trump’s hands in his negotiations with Russia.

I hate going to bed angry, so I should know better than to read an article about the views of someone like Vance on anything.  I'm sure he'd somehow make me angry about his views on what the best type of bagel is (it's cinnamon raisin with cream cheese, for those not in the know).  Probably by starting off saying something about Jews I'd object to.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

In better news, signs that standing up to ignorant bullies isn't that difficult.  You just have to have a spine and the proper motivation to use it.

Quote

But for all the grousing, threats and public protests, none of the critics are ready to use the one tool that lends them leverage in the fight: a motion to vacate. Without it, they’re left with no viable way to stop Johnson.

Conservatives raced around Capitol Hill on Thursday in various demonstrations of outrage over Johnson’s leadership style, in general, and his handling of the Ukraine debate, in particular — a fury fueled by news reports suggesting Johnson was ready to weaken a rule empowering a single lawmaker to force a vote of no confidence against the Speaker.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4603829-furious-house-conservatives-rail-at-johnson-but-havent-altered-his-ukraine-plan/

Steve

[panzermartin]

First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out. 

 

[zinz]

https://forbes.ua/ru/news/ukrainskiy-virobnik-gotue-seriyne-virobnitstvo-analoga-dji-mavic-shmavik-forbes-diznavsya-yogo-kharakteristiki-ta-tsinu-17042024-20603

Quote

Ukraine has started producing a DJI Mavic clone under the not-so-original name ‘Shmavik’. Priced at US$3500, it is no different from the original but the design is 100% redesigned for military use. “Shmavik” is a reusable drone designed for reconnaissance and airdrops - it has two independently releasable payloads of up to 500g each. With payload, the range is 15km and 35 minutes, without payload - 80 minutes. The ‘Shmavik’ also has easily changeable targeting and imaging frequencies. Planned production of 50’000 per year.

Via: https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112296332321909985

I still don't know why Ukrainians allies don't seem able to get projects like this on the way. The cost of development is a fraction of the cost of a leopard... Peanuts to what else is being sent. 

[Carolus]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out. 

 

Apparently GUR claims the TU-22M3 was "shot down with the same means the A-50 was previously shot down", which is still a mystery weapon.

(I remember hypotheses in this thread went from a modified S200 missile to SoF camping with a MANPAD hundreds of kilometers inside Russia)

Edited April 19 by Carolus
typos

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

The silly picture that kept being posted in the thread.

Then I am doubting you know where Switzerland is on the map.  Or maybe it is a colour green thing?

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Speaking of Nihilistic foreign policy concepts, this profile of Senator Vance's view that killing Ukraine aid just the beginning:

This really speaks to a political leader who simply does not understand how the modern world works. Of the US wants roughly the same economic footing it had pre-WW2, back when its population was about 125M, then decoupling globalization makes perfect sense.  How many jobs in the US will have to go back to manufacturing and resources?  Entire generations of Americans will have to go back to the coal mines and steel mills.  Costs for everything will go through the roof, unless of course Vance’s plan is all JP Morgan and plans to pay future US workers next to nothing to do all the work that has been outsourced.  And then there is the uncomfortable realities of the money markets and foreign investment.

The US does not get to be large, powerful and rich without the global order that it built, fought for and now needs to keep fighting for.  It baffles me that the average voter in the US does not really understand this let alone a senator.

[Anthony P.]

On 3/18/2024 at 7:27 PM, kraze said:

wouldn't call it a sham election though. Ironically this was probably one of the fairest ones since he was elected for the first time. Russians did show up in droves to support the war.

"Today, only amateurs steal elections on election-day."

Free and fair elections are impossible when the ruling party (ab)uses government power to fund political campaigning, banning the opposition from campaigning, and imprisoning or outlawing oppositions politicians from running in elections... or just straight up murdering them.

[acrashb]

Because there is so much talk about US support and the bills being presented to Congress:
 

 

[Carolus]

25 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Because there is so much talk about US support and the bills being presented to Congress:
 

 

I am not politically aligned with Shapiro, or the classic Republicans, but I would make a deal with the devil just to push things along at this point, and I am thankful for every conservative figure or Cold Warrior / old warhawk who throws their weight into the balance for pushing back the new Axis.

Edited April 19 by Carolus

[photon]

Another question I don't know the answer to. The consensus of the Thread so far has been that a NATO imposed no-fly-zone poses unacceptable escalatory risks (because it would involve NATO assets shooting down Russian planes). Does that escalatory logic hold now that essentially all (all?) of the Russian incursions into Ukranian airspace are unamanned? Is there strategic room for a more nuanced ruleset - something like, "We, NATO, will shoot down all unmanned aerial objects that are within 10km of a large conurbation or civilian infrastructure target west of the Dniper?

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

Apparently GUR claims the TU-22M3 was "shot down with the same means the A-50 was previously shot down", which is still a mystery weapon.

(I remember hypotheses in this thread went from a modified S200 missile to SoF camping with a MANPAD hundreds of kilometers inside Russia)

At least now GUR showed the work of some Air Forces SAM complex during this operation. Air Forces Command  claims Tu-22 was hit on 300 km range after which tried to return back, but fell down. On the video SAM operator says "range 356", so Tu-22 was tracked already on 356 km. Equipment is blurred, so it's hard to say what is it.

Russian side as usual rejected UKR succes, officially "the plane was crashed due technical problems", TG channels hint this was again "friendly fire, due to UKR more and more systematically distorts our vision of air traffic" (likely means, Russian AD tried to intercept S-200, but again, probably due some UKR tricks locked on the bomber and hit it). Reportedly commander of Tu-22 is dead. He ejected all crew and tried to continue the flight alone, but the jet has fell down. Two pilots were found and delivered to hospital. No information about third crewman.

More interest thing, claimed by Air Forces, during todays missile strike oiur AD in first time managed to intercept two Kh-22 misiles. Alas, of six launched. 

Overall statistic of strike: 

2 Kh-101 launched / 2 intercepted

2 Iskander-K / no interceptions

6 Kh-22 / 2 intercepted

12 Kh-59/69 (?) / 11 intercepted

14 Shaheds/ 14 intercepted

Alas, probably Iskander-K cruise missile hit residental building near Dnipro railway station. Two citizens were killed, 20 wounded. Other railway node in Dnipropetrovsk oblast was hit - Synel'nykove city - 6 civilians were kileld, including two children, 9 wounded. Pavlograd city, known with own machine building and military factories was hit too, one factory is damaged. 

Two days ago, three Russian Iskander-K cruise missiles destroyed a hotel in Chernihiv city. Russians claimed there were deployment of Ukrainian troops. It's unknown about military, but as result of this strike 18 civilians were killed and 60 wounded. Were slightly damaged buildings of hospital and univercity nearby

 

Edited April 19 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Because there is so much talk about US support and the bills being presented to Congress:
 

 

Interesting to hear this from an influential conservative radio show guy.  However, the comments back at him show (yet again) that the MAGA faithful can not be swayed by reasoned arguments, even from people that are generally on the same page in terms of how government should/shouldn't work.

I've long since discovered that most people who are "fiscal conservatives" don't know budgets work or how to prioritize spending within one.  These are the same people who complain that they don't have enough money to meet their basic needs, yet they just spent $10,000 on a brand new snowmobile or ATV because their previous one was a couple years old.

The fact is most people do not know how to manage money because they don't understand it.  Yet they are allowed to have a voice and to vote.  So you get this ignorance that cutting out funding for Ukraine (which is a fraction of a 1% of the Federal budget) as if that will make a difference.  Not surprisingly, these are the same people that would riot if there was any form of real Social Security reform.

Steve