How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[OldSarge]

It's currently being reported that the House has passed the Ukraine aid deal 311-112.
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/house-vote-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-04-20-24/index.html

Edited April 20 by OldSarge

[Haiduk]

Mixed feelings. Congress version is stronger than Senate one (ATACAMS + Russian actives). But... How much thousands lives have gone, what economical damage was done, how much our lands were occupied until both political forces have been conducting own dirty pre-election games during these five-six months. All this could have been avoided if Senate agreed to continue lend-lease law. 

Edited April 20 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mixed feelings. Congress version is stronger than Senate one (ATACAMS + Russian actives). But... How much tousands lives have gone, what economical damage was done, how much our lands were occupied until both political forces have been conducting own dirty pre-election games during these five-six months. All this could have been avoided if Senate agreed to continue lend-lease law. 

Obviously this is all good news NOW, but of course it should have been good news 4 months ago.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the domestic US politics of the GOP required a "bad guy".  It chose Ukraine for that, in part because of pro-Russian nutjobs like Greene, in part by those who say NO to anything the Democrats want, and in part to those who are against any form of spending out of a non-nonsensical concept of fiscal responsibility.  Add to this Trump's personal vendetta against Ukraine and that's why we had such a mess.

Let's see what comes from this in terms of specific aid and how quickly it arrives.  Some of it will arrive in days, but other things might take longer.

What Biden needs to do is make sure that if Trump wins that every single penny of this aid is spent and delivered before the handover of the office.  Because the smart bet is that any funding not irrevocably committed will be cancelled/delayed by an incoming Trump admin.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Rare footage - "Crotale" SAM of 38th SAM regiment of Operative Command "South" shoots down Russian recon UAV. Probably Odesa area.

 

Edited April 20 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

6 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think what's happening here is that these shells are so old and rusty that the normal protective cap that is usually screwed off before screwing in the fuze is so rusty that it cannot be unscrewed, but it can be bashed in by a hammer. Then after fishing out the fragments, they try to attach the fuzes, but he complains that the fuze won't go all the way in.

Possibly because he bashed the threads into mush? Just a thought 

They do seem to be trying to fuze rounds but it obviously is not going well, to say the least. 

The one with the view down inside appears to be empty, completely empty. You should just see an open area just big enough for the base of the fuze. Looks like you can see all the way to the base. That one will only hurt if it actually hits you, like a 1700s cannonball.

That guy in the cartoon is at least trying to not destroy everything. See how the screwdriver is at the side - trying to get it to turn, not smash everything. 

[edit] Looking at the cartoon again, he's doing it wrong. The screwdriver should be on the other side. "Righty tighty, lefty loosey"

Dave

Edited April 20 by Ultradave

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Mixed feelings. Congress version is stronger than Senate one (ATACAMS + Russian actives). But... How much thousands lives have gone, what economical damage was done, how much our lands were occupied until both political forces have been conducting own dirty pre-election games during these five-six months. All this could have been avoided if Senate agreed to continue lend-lease law. 

There is broad support in both the Senate and the House for the aid. The Senate passed it ages ago. The party that controls the house (small h) of Congress has the ability to determine what will or won't be voted on, regardless of (as you can see) how popular it is and how easily it will pass. So the House Speaker decided he wouldn't bring it for a vote? Why? 1) Because Trump told him not to, and 2) Because the small minority of 2-10 Russian propaganda mouthpieces in the House say they will throw him out if he does, and 3) A large number of Republican House members demand US border control legislation along with it (ignoring the fact they ALSO refused to vote on a Senate passed bill, which was negotiated by both parties - why? because it would make Biden look good - really, that's the reason). He (Speaker Johnson) just now summoned up the guts to go ahead and do it. We'll see if he still has a job Monday.

There is a way to get a vote done by going around the Speaker. It takes a petition of the majority of House members. Republicans wouldn't go that far even though many want it. They are afraid of Trump/MAGA. Democrats are the minority, so they can't do it without help from Republicans, who won't. 

Also, I know it's confusing. Congress is made of two houses, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. It's confusing for those outside the US because we commonly refer to "The House" being the House of Representatives, while both are "houses" (small h) of Congress. They each have their own rules of conducting business, which they themselves make up (and can change or waive). I'm not sure I made that any clearer, but there it is. Don't worry. It's all confusing to many Americans as well. The rules for advancing a bill are complicated and arcane, with many opportunities for it to be derailed along the way.

Dave

Edited April 20 by Ultradave

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Congress is made of two houses

In Ukraine (and former USSR) by some unknown reason under "Congress" traditiaonally meaning House of Representatives )

[Ultradave]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

In Ukraine (and former USSR) by some unknown reason under "Congress" traditiaonally meaning House of Representatives )

Ah, that DOES make it confusing!

[Ultradave]

13 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

2) Because the small minority of 2-10 Russian propaganda mouthpieces in the House say they will throw him out if he does,

Incidentally, this is not just my opinion I'm blurting out. REPUBLICAN lawmakers have stated this about their own colleagues.

(It is also my opinion as well) 

Dave

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's see what comes from this in terms of specific aid and how quickly it arrives.  Some of it will arrive in days, but other things might take longer.

One of Republicans supporting UA talked to Ukranian soldiers that logistical lines are ready and prepared for new arrivals and some stuff may be packed already.

Also one guy working here on spedition/ transport movement in Eastern part of the country sold me a gossip (not confirmed, naturally) that they had some serious changes in some schedules of arrivals to and from Rzeszów airport planned already several weeks ago. So perhaps we may expect some new goodies sent soon.

Edited April 20 by Beleg85

[OldSarge]

It looks like getting aid to Ukraine will follow through quickly. President Biden has stated that he will sign the bill as soon as it is on his desk.

'... “we have a very robust logistics network that enables us to move material very quickly,” Ryder told reporters this past week. “We can move within days.”

The Pentagon has had supplies ready to go for months but hasn’t moved them because it is out of money. It has already spent all of the funding Congress had previously provided to support Ukraine, sending more than $44 billion worth of weapons, maintenance, training and spare parts since Russia’s February 2022 invasion.'

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/after-bill-clears-us-congress-this-is-how-aid-will-reach-ukraine/ar-AA1nmAdn
 

[OldSarge]

It looks like now it is Europe's turn to pull  together an aid package.

"A crucial test for Europe will come on Monday, when the EU's 27 foreign ministers gather in Luxembourg to plan future military aid for Kyiv. Ukraine's foreign and defense ministers are scheduled to join the discussion virtually."
https://www.politico.eu/article/relieved-by-us-progress-on-ukraine-aid-europe-grapples-with-its-future-help-for-kyiv/

[pintere]

From yesterday:

"At a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, Volodymyr Zelenskyy named 5 urgent defense needs of Ukraine: 7 Patriot air defense systems or similar, one million artillery shells, long-range weapons, aviation and speed in the supply of these weapons."

I suppose we’ll know soon enough what exactly the US will be sending and when. My hope is that the very first things they send will be more Patriot batteries and SHELLS. Lots and lots. Crate after crate of 155mm. Assuming the Ukrainians are ready on their end too, in as soon as a couple weeks we may finally see the Russian assault teams once again disappear under rains of fire. And then even the new blyat tanks will have no refuge on the battlefield.

Next in line will hopefully be a few F-16 squadrons (to take care of those infernal glide-bombers) as well as a few hundred Bradleys. Based on what we’ve seen at the front, as well as the Ukrainians‘ own statements, I think sending more of these would be of much greater practical value compared to more Abrams. Besides, if Bradleys are indeed able to defeat T90s on the current battlefield then Abrams are probably not even necessary anyways .

Speed will of course be vital too, especially if Ukraine is to be ready to meet Russia’s own summer offensive. With luck though, Ukraine will ultimately be ready in time to return the favour the Russians inflicted on them last summer. 

Edited April 20 by pintere

[MSBoxer]

On 4/15/2024 at 1:14 PM, danfrodo said:

We'll take all the help we can get in pressuring this pile of filth to do the right thing.  Hopefully this becomes a cause celeb amongst evangelicals.  

I was snapped at by a senator for referring to him as a member of congress, "I am not a congressman, I am a senator and expect you to refer to me as such".  I asked, "Is the senate not part of the congress?", he told me that representatives were in the congress, senators were not.  I lost faith in many of our elected officials that day.

 

[acrashb]

Fox News' take is quite different, but here's CNN's take:

By passing Ukraine aid, the accidental speaker became an unlikely Churchill | CNN Politics

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

Fox News' take is quite different, but here's CNN's take:

By passing Ukraine aid, the accidental speaker became an unlikely Churchill | CNN Politics

I am a little peeved at all the reporting treating Johnson like some sort of hero.  What he did this week he could have, and definitely should have, done 3 months ago.  But he was part coward and part unbeliever in the need for this aid.  He only did the right thing when it became clear to him that he'd lose his job if he didn't. 

I'm sure in the background somewhere the pro-Ukrainian House GOP made a promise that if he didn't move this along they would trigger his ouster and that would be certain removal because 0 Democrats would have voted to save his arse.  Now?  We'll see, but the Dems would be better served to have Johnson remain as Speaker unless they knew they could get Jeffries in (which seems unlikely).

Steve

[Haiduk]

Improvement in Russian recon&strike complexes, when information now likely come direcly from long-range recon UAVs to missile batatlions and batteries, avoiding long HQ chaing, alas, gets results as well as a lack of SHORAD systems and missiles for them to guard frontline and rear againsg numerous Orlan-10 and SuperCam-350, tracking the terrain.

New yesterday Iskander-M strikes on Dnipro city airport and area near Novomykolaivka village in 41 km NW from Dinpro city, destroyed next MiG-29 and S-300 launcher. The third showed strike of Kh-35 missile on allegedle 79K6 "Pelikan" 3-coordinate radar near Novopokrovka (likely also in Dnipropetrovsk oblast) probably hit decoy of this radar

 

Edited April 21 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

M903 Patriot launcher with minor damages delivered for repair works

 

Edited April 21 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Ukraine hit one of Sevastopol bays with "Neptun" missile. Local authorities claim "the missile was intercepted, but debrises caused small fire, which was quickly extinguished". 

Though after some of locals issued a video with a fire on the some ship, thre were information appeared Russian submarine salvage vessel "Komunna" was hit.

"Komunna", belonging to 1st group of 145th resque vessels detachment is unique and oldest vessel in military service in the world. It was laid down as far as in 1912 (!!!) and was comissioned in 1915 as a vessel for submarines resque and sunken ships and other ojects lifting. As prototype was used German vessel "Vulcan". Initially it named "Volkhov" and served on Baltic, passing WWI, Winter War and WWII. In 1967 the vessel was moved to Black Sea. Since 2016 "Komunna" was equiped with more modern AS-28 deep-submergence resque vessel, having opportunity to reach 1000 m of depth. Though, in 1967 "Komunna" had more capable deep vessel AS-6, wich could reach 2000 m, but was decomissioned in the mid of 80th. Othe one interesting fact aboyt this vessel - it hull made of unique ductille mallable ship steel - the hull of the vessel even now, since 102 years in very good condition, but the technology of such steel producing was lost after Russian Civil War

Here is "Komunna"

    

Edited April 21 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russians gradually have been learing of Ukrainian experience of artillery fire control. If in 2022  - mid 23 we have seen typical Soviet style of whole batteries and even battalions of side-by-side standing guns simultainous work, that now Russians are more and more shifting to dispersing of artillery and work by single guns of a battery with individaual targeting for each.

Here is google-translated post about changes since 2022. "The work was carried out in areas with a low coeeficient of UAV use" - means "ineffective area fire with low UAV usage", though for summer 2022 it's not always could be true, or soldiers then reported about dozen Orlans and Zala, ajusting fire. Probably ajusting was inefefctive or come on too long command chain, which made it ineffective.

 

And addition to this post by other Russian artillerist with my translation:

I'l throw my 5 cents:

Regimental artillery tied on artillery chief (of regiment). He, sitting on command post (let's call it in such way) together with chief of recon, watch streams from UAVs (and intercepted streams of the enemy). Spotting the target chief of artillery transmits it to battery commander or senior battery officer  [he is commander of 1st artillery platoon also] and they transmit this data to the gun. 2-7 minutes for targeting of the gun, the bird [drone] in the sky. First shoot - the fire ajustment from artilelry chief directly to the gun. Or artillery chief opens the map, come into communication with gun commandr through the radio and gives the targeting (angle, azimuth, lines). The gun crew lives on position 2-5 days, further a rotation is coming. Nobody drink on position, it's taboo, else they go to "zakrep" [probably those who have to hold the ground after assault] - and this is more scary than to stormers. 

We don't work with mortars since new year. This is no longer relevant becaus of crews life preservation purposes. Drones already fly on 10 km in the rear, so they clicks them at once  

And here Russian feedback about CAESERs

Edited April 21 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

The video of TG "Divizion Tivaz" shows the strike on S-300/400 battery conrol element presumably with HIMARS or Vil'kha. Radar and two commad&control vehicles were at least damaged

 

Edited April 21 by Haiduk

[ASL Veteran]

18 hours ago, Ultradave said:

 3) A large number of Republican House members demand US border control legislation along with it (ignoring the fact they ALSO refused to vote on a Senate passed bill, which was negotiated by both parties - why? because it would make Biden look good - really, that's the reason).

Dave

This is a bad take my friend.  I don't really want to go 'there', but the simple fact is that the open US border is a feature not a bug and the Senate version of border security had several poison pills in it that would make things worse.  The issue I have is that House demands for border security is an exercise in tilting at windmills.  It doesn't matter how many 'extra' border patrol agents you have if all you are doing is catching and releasing people into the US after they swim over the Rio Grande.  It doesn't matter how many laws are on the books if the enforcement agency chooses to look the other way.

Oh, but why would the current administration want an open border you might ask?  That's tinfoil hat wingnut stuff right there.  ASL is gong completely off the rails.  Let's just count the reasons.

1. The number of seats in the House is determined by population.  Guess what?  It's not determined by population of US citizens because citizenship is not determined by the census.  Therefore if someone from China crosses the border between California and Mexico that Chinese citizen counts towards the population of California in terms of Congressional apportionment.  As of the 2020 census, there are 761,169 people per congressional district.  If you let 10 million 'migrants' into the US that's approximately 13 seats in congress.  Guess where the 'migrants' tend to go?  Sanctuary cities.  Guess where the sanctuary cities are?  Democratic strongholds.

2. Why just stop at counting non citizens in the census?  Why not just let them vote even if they aren't citizens?  In California non citizens are issued driver's licenses.  Various local Democratic strongholds have passed laws allowing non citizens to vote.  The example in the video from DC below is just one example, but there are others.  Oh, but those are just for local elections - yeah, and guess what else is on the ballot when the local elections are being held.  One would think that the citizens of Washington DC wouldn't want the Russian ambassador voting who becomes the mayor, but here we are.

3. If you can't pass a law allowing non citizens to vote though - how about just making it difficult to sort out who is a citizen and who isn't a citizen?  Use voter registration laws that don't require full social security numbers (some states only require the last four digits or they decide not to verify a social security number) and use the US attorney general's office to sue states trying to pass voter ID laws.  Who is the least likely person to have an ID in the United States?  A non citizen of course.

4. If you are someone who is of a mind to swim the Rio Grande and you know which political party is handing you cash then who are you going to vote for in the next election (even though you shouldn't be able to vote, but if you are a non citizen and you want to vote in an election where the democratic party is in control - well we should be welcoming to our 'migrant' friends).  New York City is giving every 'migrant' a government debit card with a 1000 bucks a month on it, along with other benefits totaling somewhere around 2400 bucks a month I think - I'm going from memory here.

5. I'm posting against my better judgement because I know how this forum tilts.  How someone reacts to this post will probably be determined by whether or not you like Republicans.  However, if a political party in your country - wherever you may be from - is willing to try and cement a permanent hold on political power through the use of non citizens I think most would object to that if you were on the receiving end of that political strategy.  Even traditional Democrat voting blocks are starting to shift.

 

Edited April 21 by ASL Veteran

[OldSarge]

Finally found a breakdown of the Ukraine aid package. The article is from February of this year, so should be pretty close.

$60.2 Billion overall, broken down:

1.  $20 Billion for replenishment of equipment and munitions sent by DOD to Ukraine.
2. $14 Billion for Ukraine to purchase weapons and equipment from U.S. firms.
3. $15 Billion for U.S. support including military training, intelligence sharing, increased presence in Eastern Europe, and other activities.
4.  $8 Billion direct budget support for Ukraine.
5. $3.2 Billion )1.6 Billion for economic development, $1.6 Billion to bolster air and maritime defenses in and around Ukraine)

https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-aid-breakdown-timeline/32822804.html

[Holien]

26 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

  I don't really want to go 'there

Yet you do!!! Time again you do!

What has it to do with Ukraine?

[akd]

Removed. Pointless responding to MAGA brainworm infections.

Edited April 21 by akd