How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

holy moly, huge body count from UKR strike on a RU training site.  ~100 bodies.  Plus bradley pounding MTLB & russian armor getting mauled, always a pick-me-up.  Plus some further tragedy for UKR people in the form of lost young heroes & other stuff.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/1/2238296/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-ATACMS-destroys-Russian-training-site?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[panzermartin]

12 hours ago, panzermartin said:

 

 Harry Potter couldn't save this. Is this considered an attack on western culture.

And why Russians did hit it?

 

Back on this, I'm reading some info that probably is an intercepted with Buk Russian missile debris that hit the castle. 

Makes sense, as the damage doesn't look like from a direct hit and mainly the roof is burning. Also makes sense as it really didn't make sense for Russians to waste a missile on it. 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.state.gov/imposing-new-measures-on-russia-for-its-full-scale-war-and-use-of-chemical-weapons-against-ukraine-2/

I guess it is official from a US gov stand point. Russia is systematically using chemical weapons.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Fenris said:

Here's an example posted recently (long clip of many RU corpses)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1785368169109942634

Looks like many died quite a while before being filmed.  What's really interesting to me is that this guy walked past DOZENS of small arms, but only got interested when he found some VOG-15 rifle grenades.  Looks like someone had already picked through the useful small arms and what was left weren't worth lugging back to their lines.

Steve

[ZellZeka]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Back on this, I'm reading some info that probably is an intercepted with Buk Russian missile debris that hit the castle. 

Makes sense, as the damage doesn't look like from a direct hit and mainly the roof is burning. Also makes sense as it really didn't make sense for Russians to waste a missile on it. 

 

More like a cluster munition. The Russians hit the Odessa embankment with cluster ammunition to hit more civilians

[Kraft]

13 hours ago, poesel said:

I guess a problem for reporting losses by respectable media outlets is that you can't really verify the numbers. Both sides lie, and they would be nuts if they didn't. So there are basically only rumors to report, and it's IMHO better that they don't.

Another problem is sources. If the news channels don't have their own teams, they have to use 'official' material. Again, that will be propaganda from both sides, some side more than the other (ahem).

We are used to watching Twitter videos. But those are all 'unverified' and you can understand them only in context. Another thing that makes them unusable for mass media.

This war is a difficult topic. Even though this is the one war since WWII where it's clearest which side are the baddies.

There is a database with 15 thousand confirmed losses. It wouldnt take too much effort to check it, right now like 3 people are doing all the geolocation and duplocate checking work for it.

The big outlets have enough resources. The current projections for when russia runs out of tanks is being done by 1 person who finances his satelite images by donations and himself. Surely the BBC can do better?

Edited May 2 by Kraft

[Offshoot]

9 minutes ago, Kraft said:

There is a database with 15 thousand confirmed losses. It wouldnt take too much effort to check it, right now like 3 people are doing all the geolocation and duplocate checking work for it.

The big outlets have enough resources. The current projections for when russia runs out of tanks is being done by 1 person who finances his satelite images by donations and himself. Surely the BBC can do better?

The BBC has been involved in compiling a list of know Russian dead since Feb 2022 from social media, cemeteries, etc. - Russia's meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead

Edited May 2 by Offshoot

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, ZellZeka said:

More like a cluster munition. The Russians hit the Odessa embankment with cluster ammunition to hit more civilians

Possibly. But I was not sure clusters could cause big fire in buildings. (unless incendiary?) 

Edited May 2 by panzermartin

[The_MonkeyKing]

Looking for an updated look at Russian armored forces? This thread breaks down the latest numbers on production, refurbishment, and what it means for the ongoing conflict.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1785973906026713172.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

[The_Capt]

41 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Looking for an updated look at Russian armored forces? This thread breaks down the latest numbers on production, refurbishment, and what it means for the ongoing conflict.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1785973906026713172.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

Excellent breakdown of numbers but I am not sure "what it means for the ongoing conflict".  I do not see and assessment compared to losses etc.  

One thing I am interested in is the quality of these new vehicles.  On one hand the Russians are known for simplicity in military vehicle production but I have to wonder the state of high end components such as sights and communications.  Is a BMD produced in 2024 in the same league as one produced pre-war? Given survival times of some of these vehicles, it even begins to make sense to make cheaper, simpler variants.

Edited May 2 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Possibly. But I was not sure clusters could cause big fire in buildings. (unless incendiary?) 

That video surely was cluster munitions, not scattered debris from an intercepted drone/missile.  And yes, cluster munitions can light fires.  I've seen it from time to time from the battlefield vids.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Thread from Dara Massicot, she points out Russian long range strike intelligence gathering and strike abilities are increasing, and possibly they may have gotten two HIMARS launchers tho video is unclear.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Thread from Dara Massicot, she points out Russian long range strike intelligence gathering and strike abilities are increasing, and possibly they may have gotten two HIMARS launchers tho video is unclear.

 

It is disturbing that Russia can keep eyes on any significant Ukrainian asset, so this video does remind us that Russia's long distance recon has gotten significantly better.  However, the video is a typical Russian one that shows nothing concrete.  A bunch of confusing jump cuts and no BDA at the end.  This is very common practice for Russian propagandists and so should always be dismissed without clear demonstration they hit something.  Which they very well might have... but this video doesn't prove it.

Steve

[JonS]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Thread from Dara Massicot

Twitter really is trash now, isn't it. Not the content (although a lot of that is too I suppose), but the platform itself.

I can't work out how to see the thread past that first post, but I gather that two separate events are being referred to here;

1) UKR strike on RUS training facility, with ~100 cas indicated (suggesting UKR long range strike capability)

2) RUS strike on UKR HIMARS launcher(s), with 1 or 2 UKR launchers being hit (suggesting improved RUS ISR, and greatly improved RUS sensor-strike integration)

Is that correct? The way the tweet is written is highly confusing.

Edited May 3 by JonS

[cesmonkey]

Quote

That increase in missile deliveries, which Bush said is a “surge” of dozens of missiles every few months, will last until at least the rest of the year. “There are a lot of ATACMS coming off that line,” he said. 

Background: After two years of saying the U.S. didn’t have enough ATACMS to share with Ukraine, a small number of shorter-range versions were sent last fall, with a new batch of the longer, 200-mile-range missiles arriving in March.
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Twitter really is trash now, isn't it. Not the content (although a lot of that is too I suppose), but the platform itself.

I can't work out how to see the thread past that first post, but I gather that two separate events are being referred to here;

1) UKR strike on RUS training facility, with ~100 cas indicated (suggesting UKR long range strike capability)

2) RUS strike on UKR HIMARS launcher(s), with 1 or 2 UKR launchers being hit (suggesting improved RUS ISR, and greatly improved RUS sensor-strike integration)

Is that correct? The way the tweet is written is highly confusing.

Yeah, it was tough to follow.  I think the poster made some mistakes when organizing, but you got the gist of it.

The poster had good caveats with the Russian claims.  Clearly the Russians saw the HIMARS system/s, which is a problem all on its own, however whether or not they managed to knock out the systems is not established.  As I posted above, usually when Russia jump cuts like that it's because either they KNOW they missed or they couldn't prove they hit, yet they claim kills anyway.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

 

It seems like the Pentagon was playing for time to get things ramped up.  And now that they have, plenty to give Ukraine.

China must not be happy with higher ATACMS production.  They're probably giving Russia a sideways stare about that.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Was this news mentioned recently?

Quote

PRC Companies Providing Support to Russian Defense Entities

• Zhongcheng Heavy Equipment Defense Technology (Shandong) Group Co., Ltd (ZHE) ZHE is a PRC-based defense company that produces and sells weapons, ammunition, unmanned aerial vehicles, and other defense equipment. ZHE was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods in services to or in support of PMC Wagner, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 14024.
• Shvabe Opto-Electronics Co., Ltd (Shvabe Opto) has made thousands of shipments to its parent company, U.S.-sanctioned Joint Stock Company Production Association Ural Optical and Mechanical Plant Named After E.S. Yalamov (JSC PA UOMP), including hundreds of shipments of foreign-origin microelectronics. JSC PA UOMP is a Russian defense entity that develops instruments for Russia’s combat aircraft, helicopters, and naval ships. Shvabe Opto was designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, JSC PA UOMP, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 14024. Shvabe Opto was previously added to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security's Entity List on October 11, 2023.

 

Quote

ANNEX 3: NITROCELLULOSE

PRC-based Hengshui Heshuo Cellulose Co., Ltd. (Hengshui Heshuo) has shipped large quantities of nitrocellulose to Russian companies. The company also produces nitrocellulose shipped by Hengshui Yuanchem. PRC-based Hengshui Yuanchem Trading Limited (Hengshui Yuanchem) has shipped large quantities of nitrocellulose to Russian companies, including nitrocellulose produced by Hengshui Heshuo. Henshui Heshuo and Hengshui Yuanchem were designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian Federation economy.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2318
 

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

12 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Was this news mentioned recently?

I was frankly stunned by the graph I saw passed around yesterday.

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I was frankly stunned by the graph I saw passed around yesterday.

 

We were all drunk in 1991, both literally and figuratively, we placed this HUGE bet at the blackjack table that if we helped China sort outs its economy and join the "rules based order" on generous terms, that its politics would naturally evolve in a more benign direction. We lost, rather badly, and the price is going to be another ~century of great power competition. Actually that is the best case scenario.

 

[Offshoot]

18 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I was frankly stunned by the graph I saw passed around yesterday.

 

Is the graph heading missing some zeros? 200K a month seems pretty trivial really even as a spike.

Edited May 3 by Offshoot

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Is the graph heading missing some zeros? 200K a month seems pretty trivial really even as a spike.

At least three of them would be my guess....

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I was frankly stunned by the graph I saw passed around yesterday.

 

Presuming the numbers are reasonably correct...

The upside of this chart is confirmation that Russian industry can not sustain a war of this magnitude.  Tightening sanctions, in theory, can have an impact.  But beyond that, this means everything that Russia spends on important military components is money it isn't spending on its domestic economy.  It also is far more difficult to play financial shell games with foreign companies that can cut off the supply if they aren't paid.  Inside Russia it isn't so clear cut because Putin can lean on an oligarch or nationalize something if need be.

Steve

[Carolus]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1786080923596828965?t=4jlcQM8qyX4PzYXIUbJw3g&s=19

"Gazprom report $6.7 billion loss for 2023, first net loss since 1999"

Is this some sort of Russian reverse psyOp? Aren't their financial reports coming from RNG at this point?

Because if it's true, goodamn.

 

Edited May 3 by Carolus