How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, and supposedly about $111m in seized Wagner assets are being turned back over to him.

https://news.yahoo.com/billions-confiscated-cash-were-returned-111837008.html

As I keep saying... there's still a lot going on behind the scenes that we don't know about.  Putin is still not in full control of the situation and might never be.

Steve

Prigozhin showed up with an attorney and a writ and then was immediately handed over gold, money and guns. It is quite clear that Putin has very strict limits at least for now on what he can do to or about Prigozhin. The biggest move so far is to try and use Russian media to tarnish his public persona. Not exactly the Yezhovshchina.

Edited July 6, 2023 by billbindc

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

imo, if ZNPP is unlikely to cause a widespread cloud or beyond the borders of Ukraine, then i would say Russia is more likely to undertake faking attacks on it by Ukraine.

 

 

The experiences I have encountered over my long years, from the middle of the previous century, have taught me that there is no such thing as “not possible.” The problem, for example with making something “idiot proof,” is that idiots are so damn inventive that they are always able to find a way to circumvent the “idiot proofing.” Anything that is designed by humans can be defeated by humans!

[FancyCat]

Quote

US expected to announce tomorrow it will send cluster munitions to Ukraine, which is low on artillery shells. The munitions scatter bomblets. Ukraine wants them to hit dug-in Russians; Human Rights groups say the unexploded bomblets are a threat to civilians.

 

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-5-2023

The Financial Times (FT) reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping personally warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against threatening to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine during his visit to Moscow in late March.[29] FT reported, citing unnamed former Chinese government officials, that Xi told Putin not to use nuclear weapons and noted that China’s stance against the use of nuclear weapons was included in its position paper on peace in Ukraine. FT reported that Xi’s warning to Putin was likely part of China’s efforts to bolster its relationships with the European Union. 

 

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a series of missile strikes targeting Russian rear positions along the entire front overnight and during the day on July 5.

 

These seem to be the most significant bits of today's ISW report.

[Rokossovski]

31 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

. . . Ukraine wants them to hit dug-in Russians; Human Rights groups say the unexploded bomblets are a threat to civilians.

Do you know what the biggest threat to Ukrainian civilians is? . . . Russians.

[Battlefront.com]

Apparently we have our first instance of a Javelin taking down a helicopter, specifically a KA-52 last month:

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/new_details_on_the_historial_downing_of_ka_52_helicopter_with_javelin_atgm_when_mastery_meets_right_moment-7214.html

As noted in the article, helicopters are on the official menu for Javelin, but this is the first time it's been used in this role.  At least successfully.  The relative short range of the Jav is a natural limiting factor.

Another first? is this documentation of a drone unit resupplying a cut off group of Ukrainian infantry.  I've seen videos of transporting supplies to friendly trenches and to hapless civilians, but this is different in terms of implications on combat.  The definition of being cut off has changed to include excluding drone resupply.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14rfrbb/rescue_by_ukrainian_drones/

Steve

Steve

[cesmonkey]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Apparently we have our first instance of a Javelin taking down a helicopter, specifically a KA-52 last month:

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/new_details_on_the_historial_downing_of_ka_52_helicopter_with_javelin_atgm_when_mastery_meets_right_moment-7214.html

As noted in the article, helicopters are on the official menu for Javelin, but this is the first time it's been used in this role.  At least successfully.  The relative short range of the Jav is a natural limiting factor.

Steve

Don't forget that Ukraine has already shot down helicopters using their Stugna-P systems:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-ukrainian-servicemen-showed-the-second-ka-52-helicopter-being-destroyed-by-the-stugna-p-anti-tank-guided-missile-system/

[cesmonkey]

Russian blogger Rybar claims:
 

 

[kevinkin]

Over at War Zone:

Crashed Storm Shadow Missile Falls Into Russian Hands:
The Storm Shadow missile isn’t cutting edge, but it could still be of significant intelligence value to an adversary

[Battlefront.com]

Not new for us here, however Mick Ryan posted this nice summary of what Ukraine is doing and why it requires a lot of time to accomplish:

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Grand Admiral Zaarin's coup attempt against Emperor Palpatine, maybe?

(And yes, I know that's old school Legends timeline material...)

Of course the air force guy goes star wars over nice, proper, land-based LOTR

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Not only the unexploded bomblets. Another problem with cluster munitions is that they are inaccurate and hit a large area. In several cases, Ukrainian cluster munitions have killed and injured Ukrainian civilians.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/07/06/ukraine-civilian-deaths-cluster-munitions

 

The main problem is of course still the rampant and indiscriminate Russian use of these weapons, which has also been extensively documented by HRW, just in case anybody wonders.

[kraze]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

what do Human Rights say about russians employing cluster munitions since 2014?

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

what do Human Rights say about russians employing cluster munitions since 2014?

Battlefront said something like if you protect your kin in your own home everything is permitted. I apologize in case I misinterpreted their statement. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by chuckdyke

[cesmonkey]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Over at War Zone:

Crashed Storm Shadow Missile Falls Into Russian Hands:
The Storm Shadow missile isn’t cutting edge, but it could still be of significant intelligence value to an adversary

This is a long post on the initial analysis by Russia of such a missile:
https://t.me/citizen_opinion/8014
 

Quote

Storm Shadow at the disposal of Russian specialists.

On the morning of July 4, Russian and foreign military-technical portals were flooded with photos of large elements of the airframe and the filling of the British stealth tactical cruise missile Storm Shadow, intercepted by Russian anti-aircraft missiles in the Berdyansk operational direction.

Judging by the minimal damage to the fuselage and a kink in the central part of the hull, Storm Shadow was intercepted either by a light high-speed combat stage of the 57E6 anti-aircraft missile (with a warhead weighing 20 kg) of the Pantsir-S1 / SM anti-aircraft missile and gun system, or by the promising 9M338K missile defense system ( RZV-MD) of the military air defense system "Tor-M2U".

But the most interesting nuance in this case is the almost complete preservation of the critical elemental base of the onboard radio-electronic equipment of the intercepted Storm Shadow missile.

In particular, the following remained intact:

- the inertial navigation unit of the rocket, the GPS correction module (together with an anti-jamming antenna with a narrow radiation pattern and shielding of the lower hemisphere) and an infrared correlation and guidance sensor in the terminal section of the trajectory;
- target selection controller based on an infrared portrait recorded by an IR sensor, starting from a distance of about 20-15 km from targets (depending on size and thermal signature);
- avionics power controllers and rocket battery;
- digital fuel supply circuit to the Turbomeca Microturbo TRI 60-30 turbojet engine;
- as well as the design features of the shielding of the engine integrated into the tail section of the engine nacelle.
The analysis by specialists of the Central Research Institute of VVKO and a number of Russian defense concerns of the design features, the gain of a noise-protected GPS antenna in one or another angle of the radiation pattern will allow us to determine the level of noise immunity of the product when interfered with by domestic electronic countermeasures systems, both non-directional and directional. As a result, this can serve as an excellent help in the development of new modifications of ground-based and (preferably) air-based electronic warfare systems covering the frequency ranges of 1,575.42 MHz (L1) and 1,227.6 MHz (L2).

Analysis of the type and generation of the matrix photodetector of the infrared correlation and guidance sensor in the terminal section of the trajectory, as well as determining its operating range (medium or long wavelength ranges of 3–5 and 8–12 μm, respectively) will make it possible to determine the effective range of its operation against heat-contrast targets in conditions of high dusty and smoky atmosphere, as well as under conditions of a heated underlying surface, when the target object almost does not contrast against the background of the environment. In particular, in difficult weather conditions and a smoky atmosphere, the permeability of IR waves in the range of 8–12 µm is much higher than in the range of 3–5 µm.

Moreover, the remaining elements of a glider with a wing, represented by radio absorbing materials, can be placed in an anechoic chamber, which will make it possible to more accurately determine the effective reflective surface of the product from different irradiation angles and in different wavelength ranges corresponding to one or another radar complex included in the composition. SAM of military air defense and airborne forces of Russia.

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by cesmonkey

[kraze]

15 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Battlefront said something like if you protect your kin in your own home everything is permitted. I apologize in case I misinterpreted their statement. 

Nah it's OK. I'm just genuinely interested why "human rights" got somehow mentioned in a tweet about Ukraine getting cluster munitions and these are bad, because, you know, they are going to be used in probably the most mined area in the world right now and that's bad. Using cluster munitions where russians put 3 AP mines every meter may hurt some Ukrainians.

[Bulletpoint]

20 minutes ago, kraze said:

what do Human Rights say about russians employing cluster munitions since 2014?

They are saying a lot. Here's a very detailed report documenting the Russian cluster munitions attack at the Kramatorsk train station that killed 58 civilians.

Russia repeatedly tried to blame Ukraine for this warcrime, but it's clear from the HRW fact finding work that it was Russia.

You cannot honestly read this and still claim that HRW keeps quiet about Russia's crimes.

https://www.hrw.org/video-photos/interactive/2023/02/21/death-at-the-station/russian-cluster-munition-attack-in-kramatorsk

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not new for us here, however Mick Ryan posted this nice summary of what Ukraine is doing and why it requires a lot of time to accomplish:

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

On 7/2/2023 at 11:25 PM, poesel said:

Germany and Poland quarrel about a repair Hub for Leopards in Poland. A letter of intent exists for 2 months now, but political issues have so far stopped the project (text in German).

Next Monday is a meeting between both ministers of defense. Seems to be the last chance to fix the issue before the NATO summit.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/berlin-und-warschau-streiten-ueber-leopard-werkstatt-a-8a3e52c0-6772-470b-8008-0c1390fb23a7

 

"In Industriekreisen heißt es jedoch, das Projekt sei bisher durch Polen ausgebremst worden. So habe die polnische Firma PGZ für die Arbeiten an den Panzern sehr eigenwillige Ideen für die Kosten vorgelegt, Insider sprachen von »Mondpreisen«. Zum Beispiel wolle PGZ für die sogenannte »Erstbefundung« der Panzer mehr als 100.000 Euro berechnen. In Deutschland seien für diese Diagnose nur etwa 12.000 Euro üblich. Zudem wolle PGZ für die Reparaturen keinerlei Gewährleistung übernehmen, auch dies sei völlig unüblich."

So the PGZ wants 100 000 for an analysis, while that costs 12 000 in Germany and don't want to give any guarantee for the repairs it makes. 

I once said that the Poles only act when it's to their own advantage, but I take back my words....

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

On 7/3/2023 at 12:13 PM, Maciej Zwolinski said:

On the Polish internet it is described as a price dispute. According to our sites, the German side thinks our prices are too high

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Not really. Those of us unwilling to log in to the Twitter can't read threads or view author feeds. We just see the first tweet.

[Carolus]

43 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Not really. Those of us unwilling to log in to the Twitter can't read threads or view author feeds. We just see the first tweet.

No one will take the Cap's laurels away, under whose watchful eyes this thread has grown and sprouted into a fruitful garden. May he ever keep his lonely vigil.

But if it helps, this is a thread-summery, maybe it helps people without the Space Karen's app:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676753981333467136.html

 

[Kinophile]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-artillerymen-use-diy-anti-drone-armor-on-their-self-propelled-guns/

[cesmonkey]